This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential im...This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential impacts of Renminbi appreciation on the export of finished goods and the import of intermediate inputs in each sector, and estimates the changes in profitability of each sector under different degrees of Renminbi appreciation. The results indicate that appreciation of the Renminbi will increase the profitability of 22 sectors, which are generally monopolistic, capital-intensive, and reliant on R＆D, and reduce the profitability of 20 sectors, which are generally competitive, labor-intensive, and less reliant on R＆D. This suggests that the degree and pace of Renminbi appreciation must be coordinated with industrial and employment policies in order to reduce exchange-rate risk exposure through trade restructuring, to improve economic structure, to promote competition and employment, and to maintain steady and sustainable economic growth.展开更多
The renminbi appreciated against the U.S.dollar by 21% from July 2005 to February 2009.Thousands of enterprises f iled bankruptcy and many people lost their jobs in 2007-2008,all of which was possibly the result of ov...The renminbi appreciated against the U.S.dollar by 21% from July 2005 to February 2009.Thousands of enterprises f iled bankruptcy and many people lost their jobs in 2007-2008,all of which was possibly the result of over-appreciation.Nevertheless,estimation of the RMB equilibrium rate in recent studies shows that the current rate is still undervalued.By estimating the RMB fundamental equilibrium exchange rate,in contrast with other studies,we have found that the RMB rate may have been overvalued by the end of 2008.展开更多
This paper examines global value chains at the level of the heterogeneous firm. The context is a world of horizontal intra-industry trade, characterized by imperfect competition and product differentiation at the firm...This paper examines global value chains at the level of the heterogeneous firm. The context is a world of horizontal intra-industry trade, characterized by imperfect competition and product differentiation at the firm level. Standard microeconomic tools are employed to assess the effects of inter-firm dissimilarities in both demand and supply on firms＇ responses to changes in trade policy. In this set-up, dissimilarities in firm characteristics play roles similar to factor endowments and technology differences in traditional trade models. When cross-border production sharing （＂fragmentation＂） is introduced into this framework, those differences in firm characteristics determine the degree to which individual firms will enter into production networks. In this context, horizontal and vertical intra-industry tradel elements interact in their effects on firm decisions. Traditional comparative advantage considerations still govern the choice of off-shored activities, while direct competition between imports and exports expands the range of possible outcomes. Finally, it is shown that cross-border production sharing reduces the sensitivity of firms to variations in exchange rates, matching a phenomenon that has been observed in traditional country-level models.展开更多
文摘This paper uses the input-output tables from 2007 to estimate the exchangerate risk exposure of all 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. It then demonstrates a new quantitative approach for examining the differential impacts of Renminbi appreciation on the export of finished goods and the import of intermediate inputs in each sector, and estimates the changes in profitability of each sector under different degrees of Renminbi appreciation. The results indicate that appreciation of the Renminbi will increase the profitability of 22 sectors, which are generally monopolistic, capital-intensive, and reliant on R＆D, and reduce the profitability of 20 sectors, which are generally competitive, labor-intensive, and less reliant on R＆D. This suggests that the degree and pace of Renminbi appreciation must be coordinated with industrial and employment policies in order to reduce exchange-rate risk exposure through trade restructuring, to improve economic structure, to promote competition and employment, and to maintain steady and sustainable economic growth.
文摘The renminbi appreciated against the U.S.dollar by 21% from July 2005 to February 2009.Thousands of enterprises f iled bankruptcy and many people lost their jobs in 2007-2008,all of which was possibly the result of over-appreciation.Nevertheless,estimation of the RMB equilibrium rate in recent studies shows that the current rate is still undervalued.By estimating the RMB fundamental equilibrium exchange rate,in contrast with other studies,we have found that the RMB rate may have been overvalued by the end of 2008.
文摘This paper examines global value chains at the level of the heterogeneous firm. The context is a world of horizontal intra-industry trade, characterized by imperfect competition and product differentiation at the firm level. Standard microeconomic tools are employed to assess the effects of inter-firm dissimilarities in both demand and supply on firms＇ responses to changes in trade policy. In this set-up, dissimilarities in firm characteristics play roles similar to factor endowments and technology differences in traditional trade models. When cross-border production sharing （＂fragmentation＂） is introduced into this framework, those differences in firm characteristics determine the degree to which individual firms will enter into production networks. In this context, horizontal and vertical intra-industry tradel elements interact in their effects on firm decisions. Traditional comparative advantage considerations still govern the choice of off-shored activities, while direct competition between imports and exports expands the range of possible outcomes. Finally, it is shown that cross-border production sharing reduces the sensitivity of firms to variations in exchange rates, matching a phenomenon that has been observed in traditional country-level models.
