期刊文献+
共找到145篇文章
< 1 2 8 >
每页显示 20 50 100
Analysis on characteristics of extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric circulation in Northern Shanxi
1
作者 Xia Cai Yan Song +3 位作者 Lin Cai Xin Su GuiHua Liang YanMing Xu 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2024年第2期84-97,共14页
This article utilizes daily precipitation data from 28 national meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province spanning from 1972 to 2020,and the US NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis and ERA5 monthly average r... This article utilizes daily precipitation data from 28 national meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province spanning from 1972 to 2020,and the US NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis and ERA5 monthly average reanalysis data.The study employs techniques such as empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,MannKendall mutation and other methods to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation index in northern Shanxi and their correlation with atmospheric circulation.The research results show that:the absolute index,relative index,intensity index and sustained dry period index(CDD)in the continuous index appear from southwest to northeast.The spatial distribution characteristics of the central region decrease,while the continuous wet period(CWD)decreases from the central to the east and west.The three indices Rx1day,Rx5day,and CWD mutated in 1978,1975,and 1983 respectively,and other extreme precipitation indices all appeared in a sudden change from a low-value period to a high-value period occurred around 2010.In the high-value years of the summer extreme precipitation index,there is a significant negative anomaly in the height field in the mid-high latitude regions of Eurasia.Northern Shanxi is controlled by a broad low-pressure trough in the Lake Baikal area.Water vapor transported via the east,west,and south routes converges in the northern Shanxi region and encounters cold air from the north.There is a strong upward motion anomaly at 500 hPa in the troposphere,and the dynamic conditions of upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence lead to more summer extreme precipitation in the northern Shanxi region.Conversely,in the low-value years of the summer extreme precipitation index,northern Shanxi is affected by a strong high-pressure ridge north of Lake Baikal.There is a downward motion anomaly at 500 hPa,and the northern Shanxi region lacks water vapor.The cold and warm air cannot converge,and both the water vapor conditions and dynamic conditions are poor,which is not conducive to the production of extreme precipitation in northern Shanxi. 展开更多
关键词 Northern Shanxi extreme precipitation indices Spatio-temporal distribution and evolution MUTATIONS Atmospheric circulation anomaly
下载PDF
Statistical Modelling of Extreme Precipitation Indices Supporting Urban Spatial Planning Processes
2
作者 Annunziata Palermo Lucia Chieffallo Elenio Avolio 《Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A)》 CAS 2024年第3期90-99,共10页
In this paper,we analyze how statistical modelling of extreme precipitation indices can support urban planners in the analysis and classification of the level of climate sensitivity of the territory and in the subsequ... In this paper,we analyze how statistical modelling of extreme precipitation indices can support urban planners in the analysis and classification of the level of climate sensitivity of the territory and in the subsequent definition of sustainable adaptive planning and design choices.These activities are part of a research project that addresses the issue of climate change from the urban planning perspective to identify solutions to current and future environmental challenges,increasing the climate resilience of infrastructures and communities in urban,rural and coastal areas.These research activities are based on the desire to promote integration between the approaches commonly adopted by urban planners and climate specialists to plan adequate joint risk reduction strategies.As part of this study,the focus will be on the risks produced by the greater frequency and intensity of floods,assessed by the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)as one of the key risks for Europe.Specifically,our attention focuses on pluvial flooding,proposing the definition of a statistical modelling of indices related to extreme precipitation and its application to the context of the Calabria Region,in Italy.The indices are recommended by the ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)and elaborated starting from official historical data recorded by 146 telemetry active rain gauges,disseminated in the experimentation context. 展开更多
关键词 Urban areas climate change extreme precipitation
下载PDF
Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and Its Projected Changes at the End of 21st Century
3
作者 Fabien Habiyakare Tong Jiang +3 位作者 Ibrahim Yahaya Daudi Ndabagenga James Kagabo Buda Su 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2024年第3期192-221,共30页
This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment... This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation Mann-Kendall Trend Projections Oceanic System AFRICA
下载PDF
Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau of China facing the precipitation process
4
作者 ZHANG Yixin LI Peng +5 位作者 XU Guoce MIN Zhiqiang LI Qingshun LI Zhanbin WANG Bin CHEN Yiting 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第4期439-459,共21页
The preceding and succeeding precipitation(PSP)often act together with extreme precipitation(EP),in turn,causing floods,which is an objective component that is often overlooked with regard to summer flood hazards in t... The preceding and succeeding precipitation(PSP)often act together with extreme precipitation(EP),in turn,causing floods,which is an objective component that is often overlooked with regard to summer flood hazards in the arid region of Northwest China.In this study,event-based extreme precipitation(EEP)was defined as continuous precipitation that includes at least one day of EP.We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of four EEP types(front EEP,late EEP,balanced EEP,and single day EEP)across the Loess Plateau(LP)based on data acquired from 87 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019.Precipitation on the LP basically maintained a spatial pattern of"low in the northwest region and high in the southeast region",and EP over the last 10 a increased significantly.The cumulative precipitation percentage of single day EEP was 34%and was dominant for 60 a,while the cumulative precipitation percentage of front,late,and balanced EEP types associated with PSP accounted for 66%,which confirms to the connotation of EEP.The cumulative frequencies of front and late EEP types were 23%and 21%,respectively,while the cumulative frequency of balanced EEP had the lowest value at only 13%.Moreover,global warming could lead to more single day EEP across the LP,and continuous EEP could increase in the northwestern region and decrease in the eastern region in the future.The concept of process-oriented EP could facilitate further exploration of disaster-causing processes associated with different types of EP,and provide a theoretical basis for deriving precipitation disaster chains and construction of disaster cluster characteristics. 展开更多
关键词 temporal and spatial variation climate change extreme precipitation(EP) event-based extreme precipitation(EEP) Loess Plateau
下载PDF
Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Key Region of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway 被引量:5
5
作者 Jiali MA Xiuping YAO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第5期843-855,共13页
The Sichuan-Tibet Railway,mainly located in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is affected by summertime extreme precipitation(SEP).Using daily rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data for the summers of 1... The Sichuan-Tibet Railway,mainly located in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is affected by summertime extreme precipitation(SEP).Using daily rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data for the summers of 1979-2020,the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of SEP in the key region of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway(28°-33°N,90°-105°E,hereafter KR)are revealed,and the mechanism for SEP amount(SEPA)variation in the KR is investigated.The results show that SEPA in the KR contributes nearly 30%to the total summer precipitation.Regional differences are evident in SEP,justifying thresholds higher in the plateau-dominated central-western KR(CWKR)and lower in the basindominated eastern KR(EKR).In addition,SEP in the CWKR is less intense but more frequent than SEP in the EKR.During 1979-2020,the SEPA in the KR increased slightly while the SEPA in the CWKR increased significantly and peaked in the last decade.When anticyclonic circulation(AC)anomalies dominate the 500 hPa pattern over the Bay of Bengal and Mongolia,the southerly flow and cyclonic shear over the southeastern plateau will be strengthened,favoring more SEPA in the CWKR.When an AC anomaly dominates the 500 hPa pattern over the Bohai Sea,the low-level easterly wind over the basin will be strengthened,favoring more SEPA in the EKR.The strengthening of the ascent,water vapor convergence,and convective instability is conducive to more SEPA in the KR.Our results deepen the understanding of the characteristics and the physical mechanisms responsible for extreme precipitation in the KR. 展开更多
关键词 summertime extreme precipitation distribution characteristics variation mechanism
下载PDF
Multiscale Combined Action and Disturbance Characteristics of Pre-summer Extreme Precipitation Events over South China 被引量:1
6
作者 Hongbo LIU Ruojing YAN +3 位作者 Bin WANG Guanghua CHEN Jian LING Shenming FU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第5期824-842,共19页
The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency ban... The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation event dominant frequency band multiscale combined action disturbance chara-cteristics South China
下载PDF
Moisture Transport and Associated Background Circulation for the Regional Extreme Precipitation Events over South China in Recent 40 Years
7
作者 杨雯婷 傅慎明 +3 位作者 孙建华 汪汇洁 付亚男 曾垂宽 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2023年第1期101-114,共14页
Based on the hourly precipitation data at 176 observational stations over south China and the hourly ERA5reanalysis data during the 40-yr period of 1981-2020, we analyzed the universal characteristics of moisture tran... Based on the hourly precipitation data at 176 observational stations over south China and the hourly ERA5reanalysis data during the 40-yr period of 1981-2020, we analyzed the universal characteristics of moisture transport and their associated background circulations for four types of regional extreme precipitation events(REPEs) over south China. Main findings are shown as follow.(i) The wind that transported moisture for the REPEs over south China featured a notable diurnal variation, which was consistent with the variations of the precipitation.(ii) Four types of REPEs could be determined, among which the southwest type(SWT) and the southeast type(SET) accounted for ~92%and ~5.7%, respectively, ranking the first and second, respectively.(iii) Trajectory analyses showed that the air particles of the SWT-REPEs had the largest specific humidity and experienced the most intense ascending motion, and therefore their precipitation was the strongest among the four types.(iv) South China was dominated by notable moisture flux convergence for the four types of REPEs, but their moisture transport was controlled by different flow paths.(v)Composite analyses indicated that the background circulation of the four types of REPEs showed different features,particularly for the intensity, location and coverage of a western Pacific subtropical high. For the SWT-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly driven by a lower-tropospheric strong southwesterly wind band in the low-latitude regions. Air particles for this type of REPEs mainly passed over the Indochina Peninsula and South China Sea. For the SET-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly steered by a strong low-tropospheric southeasterly wind northeast of a transversal trough. Air particles mainly passed over the South China Sea for this type of REPEs. 展开更多
关键词 regional extreme precipitation event south China moisture transport composite analysis backward tracking analyses
下载PDF
Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations
8
作者 Daudi Mikidadi Ndabagenga Jinhua Yu +2 位作者 Justus Renatus Mbawala Charles Yusuph Ntigwaza Ali Said Juma 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2023年第12期182-208,共27页
Like other countries in East Africa, Tanzania has been affected by extreme precipitation incidences both socially and economically. Determining the trend and variability features of extreme precipitation in the countr... Like other countries in East Africa, Tanzania has been affected by extreme precipitation incidences both socially and economically. Determining the trend and variability features of extreme precipitation in the country is crucial. This study used data from 28 meteorological stations for 1981-2020 period to give an annual and seasonal analysis of the patterns of 10 ETCCDI’s extreme precipitation indices over the regions. At annual scale, the results showed that increasing trends had high frequency percentage than the decreasing ones, collecting about 76% in total. The decreasing trend was approximately 24%, and most of the stations with increasing percentage in trend are concentrated in Northern coast, Central, West, North-eastern highlands and Lake Victoria Basin. Most of the stations depicted negative trend are concentrated over Southern region. This highlights that extreme precipitation events have increased over the country for the period 1981-2020. At seasonal scale, during October to December (OND);the patterns of extreme precipitation climatic indices except R99p, showed positive significant increasing trend over Lake Victoria Basin and some Western parts of the country. In general, spatial patterns indicate decrease of precipitation over most parts of the country during OND. The seasonal average time series depicted non-significant positive trend during March to April (MAM) season, except for Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) which showed non-significant decreasing trend. Over the highest mountain in Africa, Kilimanjaro;the study has revealed significant decrease in Annual total-wet Precipitation (PRCPTOT), the number of heavy (very heavy) days of precipitation R10 mm (R20 mm) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) during MAM season. While the maximum one-day precipitation amount (RX1 day) was observed to decrease significantly over the Mountain during OND season. The result is very important in risk assessment and preparedness perspective in planning climate change mitigation and adaptations for different sectors like Tourism, Agriculture, Water and Energy. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation Climatic Indices Tanzania MANN-KENDALL ETCCDI TREND
下载PDF
Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Weather Process in Henan during July 17-22, 2021
9
作者 Zhaojin Wang 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2023年第4期72-85,共14页
To learn more about the unusually heavy rainfall in central China, this research uses the monthly climatic data, weather map information and US NCEP re-analysis data to analyze the atmospheric circulation, precipitati... To learn more about the unusually heavy rainfall in central China, this research uses the monthly climatic data, weather map information and US NCEP re-analysis data to analyze the atmospheric circulation, precipitation and weather situation of this extreme precipitation weather process in Henan during July 17-22, 2021. The results show that the precipitation process is affected by the joint action of the subtropical high, the continental high, the low vortex, the low-level jet, the typhoon “In-fa” and other multi-scale systems in the middle and low latitudes. This precipitation process was also affected by the topographic uplift and blocking of Taihang Mountain and Funiu Mountain. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation Weather Henan Province Subtropical High Typhoon “In-Fa” Topographic Action
下载PDF
The Spatial-Temporal Change of Extreme Precipitation in the Southwest Region of Zhejiang Province during 1953-2022
10
作者 Wenhao Yang Shujie Yuan Hongxia Shi 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2023年第11期91-102,共12页
Based on the daily precipitation from 17 meteorological stations in the southwest of Zhejiang from 1953 to 2022, 11 extreme precipitation indices were calculated, and the temporal-spatial characteristic of extreme pre... Based on the daily precipitation from 17 meteorological stations in the southwest of Zhejiang from 1953 to 2022, 11 extreme precipitation indices were calculated, and the temporal-spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation were analyzed. The results indicate that 1) Except for the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), all the other extreme precipitation indices had low values in the northeast of the study area and high value around Liuchun Lake;2) CDD had a decreasing trend in most part of study area, while the other indices were on the rise, especially at Suichang (SC) and Tonglu (TL) stations, the change was significant (p 0.05);3) The annual variation showed that CDD declined with the trend of 0.83 d/10a, however, all the other indices increased, especially after 2000, the increase was more obvious. In general, the extreme precipitation mount, the extreme precipitation days showed an increasing trend, drought was less likely to happen, and the possibility of heavy precipitation is less, however, at some individual station such as SC, heavy precipitation and storm is much more likely to occur. 展开更多
关键词 Southwest of Zhejiang Province extreme precipitation Indices Temporal-Spatial Characteristic
下载PDF
Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in Liaoning Province 被引量:5
11
作者 王震 王颖 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第10期39-42,共4页
Daily precipitation amounts from 1961 to 2005 in 35 observation stations in Liaoning Province were selected in order to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events.By dint of EOF,REOF,m... Daily precipitation amounts from 1961 to 2005 in 35 observation stations in Liaoning Province were selected in order to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events.By dint of EOF,REOF,mean-square-error and other ways,the changes in different regions of extreme precipitation and distribution were reflected.The analysis showed that,extreme precipitation in Liaoning Province could be divided into three areas,which were western Liaoning mountains and parts of northern areas,eastern Liaoning mountainous,near-coastal areas of Liaohe River Plain.In the relatively large precipitation areas,extreme precipitation threshold was also higher,and vice versa.The lower frequency of extreme precipitation events had a greater contribution to total precipitation;extreme precipitation,total precipitation and total rain days had the greatest changes in the summer,and the least changes in the winter;number of days of extreme precipitation changes in each season were not great;the change of extreme precipitation was not obvious in the long term. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation event Spatial and temporal characteristic Twiddle factor Liaoning Province China
下载PDF
Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Summer Extreme Precipitation in South China and Response of Tropical Ocean
12
作者 Xia Shi Ke Li +1 位作者 Mengzhou Yang Xinyu Lu 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2021年第3期249-261,共13页
In the study, the summer extreme precipitation in South China is divided into early rainy season (MJ) and late rainy season (JA). The percentile method (95%) is used to define the extreme precipitation threshold. Base... In the study, the summer extreme precipitation in South China is divided into early rainy season (MJ) and late rainy season (JA). The percentile method (95%) is used to define the extreme precipitation threshold. Based on the international general definition method of extreme precipitation threshold: percentile method (95%), the extreme precipitation thresholds in flood season before and after South China are defined respectively. The total amount and frequency of extreme precipitation in flood season before and after 1979-2014 are calculated in this paper. The change trend of the two indicators is basically the same, and the two indicators have obvious interannual variation and an upward trend. According to the results of wavelet analysis of extreme precipitation frequency, the frequency of extreme precipitation in the first flood season mainly has a period of 3 - 5 years, while the frequency of extreme precipitation in the later flood season has a significant period of 6 - 8 years. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation before and after the flood season shows that the extreme precipitation in the former flood season is mainly distributed in the central part of Guangdong, the northeast of Guangxi and the western part of Fujian, and the extreme precipitation in the latter flood season mainly occurs in the southern coastal area. The results show that there are different tropical SST regions affecting the extreme precipitation in South China. The former flood season is mainly the tropical Indian Ocean warm SST, and the latter flood season is mainly the tropical Pacific warm SST. The tropical Indian Ocean SST stimulates the anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which brings the southwest warm and humid air flow into South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the first flood season of South China;the tropical Pacific SST stimulates the cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which reduces the water vapor outflow caused by the seasonal northward jump of the subtropical high in South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the later flood season of South China. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation extreme precipitation Threshold Early and Late Rainy Season IOBM ENSO
下载PDF
Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism 被引量:20
13
作者 宁亮 钱永甫 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第1期109-118,共10页
Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the p... Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation interdecadal change South China sensible heat flux latent heat flux
下载PDF
Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes 被引量:22
14
作者 LIU Run LIU Shaw Chen +4 位作者 Ralph J.CICERONE SHIU Chein-Jung LI Jun WANG Jingli ZHANG Yuanhang 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第8期1027-1037,共11页
Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed a... Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China (1955-2011) and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data (1979-2007) and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days (28 days) and ) 10 consecutive dry days (36%) are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation global warming AEROSOLS meteorological risk of floods and droughts
下载PDF
A Newly-Discovered GPD-GEV Relationship Together with Comparing Their Models of Extreme Precipitation in Summer 被引量:16
15
作者 丁裕国 程炳岩 江志红 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2008年第3期507-516,共10页
It has been theoretically proven that at a high threshold an approximate expression for a quantile of GEV (Generalized Extreme Values) distribution can be derived from GPD (Generalized Pareto Distribution). Afterw... It has been theoretically proven that at a high threshold an approximate expression for a quantile of GEV (Generalized Extreme Values) distribution can be derived from GPD (Generalized Pareto Distribution). Afterwards, a quantile of extreme rainfall events in a certain return period is found using L-moment estimation and extreme rainfall events simulated by GPD and GEV, with all aspects of their results compared. Numerical simulations show that POT (Peaks Over Threshold)-based GPD is advantageous in its simple operation and subjected to practically no effect of the sample size of the primitive series, producing steady high-precision fittings in the whole field of values (including the high-end heavy tailed). In comparison, BM (Block Maximum)-based GEV is limited, to some extent, to the probability and quantile simulation, thereby showing that GPD is an extension of GEV, the former being of greater utility and higher significance to climate research compared to the latter. 展开更多
关键词 Generalized Pareto Distribution Generalized extreme Value daily rainfall extreme precipitation RAINSTORM
下载PDF
Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years 被引量:10
16
作者 章大全 封国林 胡经国 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第2期736-742,共7页
Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have ... Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains (above 25mm/day) in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country's average. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation events FREQUENCY abrupt change extreme events
下载PDF
Changing features of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin during 1961-2002 被引量:9
17
作者 ZHANG Zengxin ZHANG Qiang JIANG Tong 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2007年第1期33-42,共10页
The total precipitation of the highest 1 day, 3 day, 5 day and 7 day precipitation amount (R1 D, R3D, R5D and R7D) in the Yangtze River basin was analyzed with the help of linear trend analysis and continuous wavele... The total precipitation of the highest 1 day, 3 day, 5 day and 7 day precipitation amount (R1 D, R3D, R5D and R7D) in the Yangtze River basin was analyzed with the help of linear trend analysis and continuous wavelet transform method. The research results indicated that: 1) Spatial distribution of RID is similar in comparison with that of R3D, R5D and R7D. The Jialingjiang and Hanjiang river basins are dominated by decreasing trend, which is significant at 〉95% confidence level in Jialingjiang River basin and insignificant at 〉95% confidence level in Hanjiang River basin. The southern part of the Yangtze River basin and the western part of the upper Yangtze River basin are dominated by significant increasing trend of RID extreme precipitation at 〉95% confidence level. 2) As for the R3D, R5D and R7D, the western part of the upper Yangtze River basin is dominated by significant increasing trend at 〉95% confidence level. The eastern part of the upper Yangtze River basin is dominated by decreasing trend, but is insignificant at 〉95% confidence level. The middle and lower Yangtze River basin is dominated by increasing trend, but insignificant at 〉95% confidence level. 3) The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are intensified over time. Precipitation anomalies indicated that the southeastern part, southern part and southwestern part of the Yangtze River basin are dominated by positive extreme precipitation anomalies between 1993-2002 and 1961-1992. The research results of this text indicate that the occurrence probability of flash flood is higher in the western part of the upper Yangtze River basin and the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, esp. in the southwestern and southeastern parts of the Yangtze River basin. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation event linear trend continuous wavelet transform Yangtze River basin
下载PDF
AN ANALYSIS OF THE WINTER EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING IN SOUTHERN CHINA 被引量:9
18
作者 智协飞 张玲 潘嘉璐 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2010年第4期325-332,共8页
Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Ge... Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around i99I, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate wanning. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate wanning was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastem China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastem China. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation climate warming Generalized Pareto Distribution tropical winter monsoon over East Asia
下载PDF
Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China 被引量:6
19
作者 Wei Li Panmao Zhai Jinhui Cai 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE 2011年第2期101-107,共7页
Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951 2004, the F distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme pr... Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951 2004, the F distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during winter and spring, extreme precipitation events occur more often during E1 Nino events than during La Nina events. While during summer and autumn, the opposite is found. The relationship of a two season-lag ENSO and extreme precipitation frequency shows different pattern. Extreme precipitation events occur more often in several regions if an ENSO warm phase happened in the central-eastern tropical Pacific two seasons before. No similar impacts of El Nino and La Nina on the frequency of extreme precipitation events are found. 展开更多
关键词 extreme precipitation F distribution function ENSO NiHo 3.4 sea surface temperature
下载PDF
Fidelity of the APHRODITE Dataset in Representing Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia 被引量:4
20
作者 Sheng LAI Zuowei XIE +1 位作者 Cholaw BUEH Yuanfa GONG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第12期1405-1416,共12页
Using rain-gauge-observation daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network(V3.25)and the Chinese Surface Daily Climate Dataset(V3.0),this study investigates the fidelity of the AHPRODITE data... Using rain-gauge-observation daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network(V3.25)and the Chinese Surface Daily Climate Dataset(V3.0),this study investigates the fidelity of the AHPRODITE dataset in representing extreme precipitation,in terms of the extreme precipitation threshold value,occurrence number,probability of detection,and extremal dependence index during the cool(October to April)and warm(May to September)seasons in Central Asia during 1961–90.The distribution of extreme precipitation is characterized by large extreme precipitation threshold values and high occurrence numbers over the mountainous areas.The APHRODITE dataset is highly correlated with the gauge-observation precipitation data and can reproduce the spatial distributions of the extreme precipitation threshold value and total occurrence number.However,APHRODITE generally underestimates the extreme precipitation threshold values,while it overestimates the total numbers of extreme precipitation events,particularly over the mountainous areas.These biases can be attributed to the overestimation of light rainfall and the underestimation of heavy rainfall induced by the rainfall distribution–based interpolation.Such deficits are more evident for the warm season than the cool season,and thus the biases are more pronounced in the warm season than in the cool season.The probability of detection and extremal dependence index reveal that APHRODITE has a good capability of detecting extreme precipitation,particularly in the cool season. 展开更多
关键词 APHRODITE extreme precipitation Central Asia XINJIANG FIDELITY
下载PDF
上一页 1 2 8 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部