Analysis on Extreme Temperature Indexes in Rongcheng Station from 1981 to 2010

A Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature from Rongcheng station during 1981 -2010, the changing trends of extreme temperature indexes were analyzed. The results show that for the relative indexes, number of warm days （nights） in Rongcheng station showed an increasing trend, while the number of cold days （nights） showed a decreasing trend from 1981 to 2010, but the decreasing trend of number of cold days was small. For the extreme indexes, the extreme maximum temperature, the maximum of extreme minimum temperature and extreme mini- mum temperature increased, while the minimum of extreme maximum temperature decreased from 1981 to 2010. For the absolute indexes, the numbers of frozen days and frost days reduced, and frozen days were less than frost days for all year.

Features of aerosol optical depth and its relation to extreme temperatures in China during 1980–2001

Based on Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer （TOMS） monthly aerosol optical thickness （AOT） measurements in 1980–2001 a study is made of space/time patterns and difference between land and sea of AOT 0.50 μm thick over China,which are put into correlation analysis with synchronous extreme temperature indices （warm/cold day and night）.Results suggest that 1） the long-term mean AOT over China is characterized by typical geography,with pronounced land-sea contrast.And AOT has significant seasonality and its seasonal difference is diminished as a function of latitude.2） On the whole,the AOT displays an appreciably increasing trend,with the distinct increase in the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau and SW China,North China,the mid-lower Changjiang （MiLY） valley as well as the South China Sea,but marginal decrease over western/northern Xinjiang and part of South China.3） The AOT over land and sea is marked by conspicuous intra-seasonal and -yearly oscillations,with remarkable periods at one-,two-yr and more （as interannual periods）.4） Land AOT change is well correlated with extremely temperature indexes.Generally,the correlations of AOT to the extreme temperature indices are more significant in Eastern China with 110 ° E as the division.Their high-correlation regions are along the Southern China coastline,the Loess Plateau and the Sichuan Basin,and even higher in North China Plain and the mid-lower Changjiang River reaches.5） Simulations of LMDZ-regional model indicate that aerosol effects may result in cooling all over China,particularly in Eastern China.The contribution of aerosol change may result in more decrease in the maximum temperature than the minimum,with decrease of 0.11/0.08 K for zonal average,respectively.

Simulation evaluation and future prediction of the IPCC—AR4 GCMs on the extreme temperatures in China

On the basis of the temperature observations during 1961-2000 in China, seven coupled general circulation models＇ （GCMs） extreme temperature products are evaluated supplied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change＇ s 4th Assessment Report （IPCC-AR4）. The extreme temperature indices in use are frost days （FD）, growing season length （GSL）, extreme temperature range （ETR）, warm nights （TN90）, and heat wave duration index （HWDI）. Results indicate that all the seven models are capable of simulating spatial and temporal variations in temperature characteristics, and their ensemble acts more reliable than any single one. Among the seven models, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2 performances are much better. Besides, most of the models are able to present linear trends of the same positive/negative signs as the observations but for weaker intensities. The simulation effects are different on a nationwide basis, with 110°N as the division, east （west） of which the effects are better （worse） and the poorer over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China. The predictions for the 21st century on emissions scenarios show that except decreases in the FD and ETR, other indices display significant increasing trend, especially for the indices of HWDI and TN90, which represent the notable extreme climate. This indicates that the temperature-related climate is moving towards the extreme. In the late 21st century, the GSL and TN90 （HWDI） increase most notably in southwest China （the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau）, and the FD decrease most remarkably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, northwest and northeast of China. Apart from South China, the yearly change range of the extreme temperature is reduced in most of China.

Simulation assessment and prediction of future temperatures in Northwest China from BCC-CSM Model

Three deterministic prediction evaluation methods,including the standard deviation,root-mean-square error,and time correlation coefficient,and three extreme temperature indices were used to assess the performance of the BCC_CSM2_MR model from CMIP6 in simulating the climate of Northwest China based on monthly grid air temperature data from ground stations.The model performance was evaluated using the daily mean temperature,daily minimum temperature,and daily maximum temperature from 1961 to 2014 and future temperature changes in Northwest China under different radiative forcing scenarios.The BCC_CSM2_MR model reproduces well the seasonal changes,spatial distribution,and other characteristics of the daily mean temperature in Northwest China,especially in the Tarim Basin,the Kunlun and Qilian mountains,and Shaanxi.There is still some deviation in the simulation of the daily mean temperature in the high terrains of the Tianshan,Kunlun,and Altai mountains.The model better simulates the daily minimum temperature than the daily maximum temperature.The simulation error is smallest in summer,followed by autumn and winter,and largest in spring.In terms of extreme temperature indices,the deviations are smaller for cold nights,warm nights,and the annual maximum daily minimum temperatures.Furthermore,the model can capture the increase in warm events and the decrease in cold events.Under different forcing scenarios,there is a general warming trend in Northwest China,with the greatest warming in Xinjiang.