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A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction 被引量:1
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作者 Fei Ye Yunbin Yuan 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 EI CSCD 2024年第1期100-105,共6页
Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl... Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods. 展开更多
关键词 Stochastic model LS+AR short-term prediction The earth rotation parameter(ERP) Observation model
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Research on the IL-Bagging-DHKELM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Algorithm Based on Error AP Clustering Analysis
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作者 Jing Gao Mingxuan Ji +1 位作者 Hongjiang Wang Zhongxiao Du 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第6期5017-5030,共14页
With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting m... With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method. 展开更多
关键词 short-term wind power prediction deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine incremental learning error clustering
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A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment
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作者 Haibo Li Yongbo Yu +1 位作者 Zhenbo Zhao Xiaokang Tang 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第1期653-676,共24页
Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same g... Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method. 展开更多
关键词 Time series short-term prediction multi-granularity event ALIGNMENT event matching
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Physics Guided Deep Learning-Based Model for Short-Term Origin–Destination Demand Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Systems Under Pandemic
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作者 Shuxin Zhang Jinlei Zhang +3 位作者 Lixing Yang Feng Chen Shukai Li Ziyou Gao 《Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第10期276-296,共21页
Accurate origin–destination(OD)demand prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and management of urban rail transit(URT)systems,particularly during a pandemic.However,this task faces several limitations,incl... Accurate origin–destination(OD)demand prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and management of urban rail transit(URT)systems,particularly during a pandemic.However,this task faces several limitations,including real-time availability,sparsity,and high-dimensionality issues,and the impact of the pandemic.Consequently,this study proposes a unified framework called the physics-guided adaptive graph spatial–temporal attention network(PAG-STAN)for metro OD demand prediction under pandemic conditions.Specifically,PAG-STAN introduces a real-time OD estimation module to estimate real-time complete OD demand matrices.Subsequently,a novel dynamic OD demand matrix compression module is proposed to generate dense real-time OD demand matrices.Thereafter,PAG-STAN leverages various heterogeneous data to learn the evolutionary trend of future OD ridership during the pandemic.Finally,a masked physics-guided loss function(MPG-loss function)incorporates the physical quantity information between the OD demand and inbound flow into the loss function to enhance model interpretability.PAG-STAN demonstrated favorable performance on two real-world metro OD demand datasets under the pandemic and conventional scenarios,highlighting its robustness and sensitivity for metro OD demand prediction.A series of ablation studies were conducted to verify the indispensability of each module in PAG-STAN. 展开更多
关键词 short-term origin-destination demand prediction Urban rail transit PANDEMIC Physics-guided deep learning
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An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction
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作者 Duy Quang Tran Huy Q.Tran Minh Van Nguyen 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第3期3585-3602,共18页
With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning ... With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning. 展开更多
关键词 Ensemble empirical mode decomposition traffic volume prediction long short-term memory optimal hyperparameters deep learning
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Transformer-based correction scheme for short-term bus load prediction in holidays
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作者 Tang Ningkai Lu Jixiang +3 位作者 Chen Tianyu Shu Jiao Chang Li Chen Tao 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2024年第3期304-312,共9页
To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduc... To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduce complexity and capture inherent characteristics more effectively.Gated residual connections are then employed to selectively propagate salient features across layers,while an attention mechanism focuses on identifying prominent patterns in multivariate time-series data.Ultimately,a pre-trained structure is incorporated to reduce computational complexity.Experimental results based on extensive data show that the proposed scheme achieves improved prediction accuracy over comparative algorithms by at least 32.00%consistently across all buses evaluated,and the fitting effect of holiday load curves is outstanding.Meanwhile,the pre-trained structure drastically reduces the training time of the proposed algorithm by more than 65.75%.The proposed scheme can efficiently predict bus load results while enhancing robustness for holiday predictions,making it better adapted to real-world prediction scenarios. 展开更多
关键词 short-term bus load prediction Transformer network holiday load pre-training model load clustering
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Photovoltaic Power Generation Power Prediction under Major Extreme Weather Based on VMD-KELM
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作者 Yuxuan Zhao Bo Wang +2 位作者 Shu Wang Wenjun Xu Gang Ma 《Energy Engineering》 EI 2024年第12期3711-3733,共23页
The output of photovoltaic power stations is significantly affected by environmental factors,leading to intermittent and fluctuating power generation.With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to glob... The output of photovoltaic power stations is significantly affected by environmental factors,leading to intermittent and fluctuating power generation.With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming,photovoltaic power stations may experience drastic reductions in power generation or even complete shutdowns during such conditions.The integration of these stations on a large scale into the power grid could potentially pose challenges to systemstability.To address this issue,in this study,we propose a network architecture based on VMDKELMfor predicting the power output of photovoltaic power plants during severe weather events.Initially,a grey relational analysis is conducted to identify key environmental factors influencing photovoltaic power generation.Subsequently,GMM clustering is utilized to classify meteorological data points based on their probabilities within different Gaussian distributions,enabling comprehensive meteorological clustering and extraction of significant extreme weather data.The data are decomposed using VMD to Fourier transform,followed by smoothing processing and signal reconstruction using KELM to forecast photovoltaic power output under major extreme weather conditions.The proposed prediction scheme is validated by establishing three prediction models,and the predicted photovoltaic output under four major extreme weather conditions is analyzed to assess the impact of severe weather on photovoltaic power station output.The experimental results show that the photovoltaic power output under conditions of dust storms,thunderstorms,solid hail precipitation,and snowstorms is reduced by 68.84%,42.70%,61.86%,and 49.92%,respectively,compared to that under clear day conditions.The photovoltaic power prediction accuracies,in descending order,are dust storms,solid hail precipitation,thunderstorms,and snowstorms. 展开更多
关键词 Major extreme weather photovoltaic power prediction weather clustering VMD-KELM network prediction model
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Development and validation of a circulating tumor DNA-based optimization-prediction model for short-term postoperative recurrence of endometrial cancer
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作者 Yuan Liu Xiao-Ning Lu +3 位作者 Hui-Ming Guo Chan Bao Juan Zhang Yu-Ni Jin 《World Journal of Clinical Cases》 SCIE 2024年第18期3385-3394,共10页
BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence r... BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC. 展开更多
关键词 Circulating tumor DNA Endometrial cancer short-term recurrence predictive model Prospective validation
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Short-term train arrival delay prediction:a data-driven approach
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作者 Qingyun Fu Shuxin Ding +3 位作者 Tao Zhang Rongsheng Wang Ping Hu Cunlai Pu 《Railway Sciences》 2024年第4期514-529,共16页
Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and a... Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and accurate train delay predictions,facilitated by data-driven neural network models,can significantly reduce dispatcher stress and improve adjustment plans.Leveraging current train operation data,these models enable swift and precise predictions,addressing challenges posed by train delays in high-speed rail networks during unforeseen events.Design/methodology/approach-This paper proposes CBLA-net,a neural network architecture for predicting late arrival times.It combines CNN,Bi-LSTM,and attention mechanisms to extract features,handle time series data,and enhance information utilization.Trained on operational data from the Beijing-Tianjin line,it predicts the late arrival time of a target train at the next station using multidimensional input data from the target and preceding trains.Findings-This study evaluates our model’s predictive performance using two data approaches:one considering full data and another focusing only on late arrivals.Results show precise and rapid predictions.Training with full data achieves aMAEof approximately 0.54 minutes and a RMSEof 0.65 minutes,surpassing the model trained solely on delay data(MAE:is about 1.02 min,RMSE:is about 1.52 min).Despite superior overall performance with full data,the model excels at predicting delays exceeding 15 minutes when trained exclusively on late arrivals.For enhanced adaptability to real-world train operations,training with full data is recommended.Originality/value-This paper introduces a novel neural network model,CBLA-net,for predicting train delay times.It innovatively compares and analyzes the model’s performance using both full data and delay data formats.Additionally,the evaluation of the network’s predictive capabilities considers different scenarios,providing a comprehensive demonstration of the model’s predictive performance. 展开更多
关键词 Train delay prediction Intelligent dispatching command Deep learning Convolutional neural network Long short-term memory Attention mechanism
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A soft sensor for industrial melt index prediction based on evolutionary extreme learning machine 被引量:6
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作者 Miao Zhang Xinggao Liu Zeyin Zhang 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第8期1013-1019,共7页
In propylene polymerization(PP) process, the melt index(MI) is one of the most important quality variables for determining different brands of products and different grades of product quality. Accurate prediction of M... In propylene polymerization(PP) process, the melt index(MI) is one of the most important quality variables for determining different brands of products and different grades of product quality. Accurate prediction of MI is essential for efficient and professional monitoring and control of practical PP processes. This paper presents a novel soft sensor based on extreme learning machine(ELM) and modified gravitational search algorithm(MGSA) to estimate MI from real PP process variables, where the MGSA algorithm is developed to find the best parameters of input weights and hidden biases for ELM. As the comparative basis, the models of ELM, APSO-ELM and GSAELM are also developed respectively. Based on the data from a real PP production plant, a detailed comparison of the models is carried out. The research results show the accuracy and universality of the proposed model and it can be a powerful tool for online MI prediction. 展开更多
关键词 PROPYLENE POLYMERIZATION MELT index prediction extreme learning machine GRAVITATIONAL search algorithm
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Rock burst prediction based on genetic algorithms and extreme learning machine 被引量:21
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作者 李天正 李永鑫 杨小礼 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第9期2105-2113,共9页
Rock burst is a kind of geological disaster in rock excavation of high stress areas.To evaluate intensity of rock burst,the maximum shear stress,uniaxial compressive strength,uniaxial tensile strength and rock elastic... Rock burst is a kind of geological disaster in rock excavation of high stress areas.To evaluate intensity of rock burst,the maximum shear stress,uniaxial compressive strength,uniaxial tensile strength and rock elastic energy index were selected as input factors,and burst pit depth as output factor.The rock burst prediction model was proposed according to the genetic algorithms and extreme learning machine.The effect of structural surface was taken into consideration.Based on the engineering examples of tunnels,the observed and collected data were divided into the training set,validation set and prediction set.The training set and validation set were used to train and optimize the model.Parameter optimization results are presented.The hidden layer node was450,and the fitness of the predictions was 0.0197 under the optimal combination of the input weight and offset vector.Then,the optimized model is tested with the prediction set.Results show that the proposed model is effective.The maximum relative error is4.71%,and the average relative error is 3.20%,which proves that the model has practical value in the relative engineering. 展开更多
关键词 extreme learning machine feed forward neural network rock burst prediction rock excavation
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Slope stability prediction based on a long short-term memory neural network:comparisons with convolutional neural networks,support vector machines and random forest models 被引量:6
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作者 Faming Huang Haowen Xiong +4 位作者 Shixuan Chen Zhitao Lv Jinsong Huang Zhilu Chang Filippo Catani 《International Journal of Coal Science & Technology》 EI CAS CSCD 2023年第2期83-96,共14页
The numerical simulation and slope stability prediction are the focus of slope disaster research.Recently,machine learning models are commonly used in the slope stability prediction.However,these machine learning mode... The numerical simulation and slope stability prediction are the focus of slope disaster research.Recently,machine learning models are commonly used in the slope stability prediction.However,these machine learning models have some problems,such as poor nonlinear performance,local optimum and incomplete factors feature extraction.These issues can affect the accuracy of slope stability prediction.Therefore,a deep learning algorithm called Long short-term memory(LSTM)has been innovatively proposed to predict slope stability.Taking the Ganzhou City in China as the study area,the landslide inventory and their characteristics of geotechnical parameters,slope height and slope angle are analyzed.Based on these characteristics,typical soil slopes are constructed using the Geo-Studio software.Five control factors affecting slope stability,including slope height,slope angle,internal friction angle,cohesion and volumetric weight,are selected to form different slope and construct model input variables.Then,the limit equilibrium method is used to calculate the stability coefficients of these typical soil slopes under different control factors.Each slope stability coefficient and its corresponding control factors is a slope sample.As a result,a total of 2160 training samples and 450 testing samples are constructed.These sample sets are imported into LSTM for modelling and compared with the support vector machine(SVM),random forest(RF)and convo-lutional neural network(CNN).The results show that the LSTM overcomes the problem that the commonly used machine learning models have difficulty extracting global features.Furthermore,LSTM has a better prediction performance for slope stability compared to SVM,RF and CNN models. 展开更多
关键词 Slope stability prediction Long short-term memory Deep learning Geo-Studio software Machine learning model
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A Short-Term Climate Prediction Model Based on a Modular Fuzzy Neural Network 被引量:6
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作者 金龙 金健 姚才 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第3期428-435,共8页
In terms of the modular fuzzy neural network (MFNN) combining fuzzy c-mean (FCM) cluster and single-layer neural network, a short-term climate prediction model is developed. It is found from modeling results that the ... In terms of the modular fuzzy neural network (MFNN) combining fuzzy c-mean (FCM) cluster and single-layer neural network, a short-term climate prediction model is developed. It is found from modeling results that the MFNN model for short-term climate prediction has advantages of simple structure, no hidden layer and stable network parameters because of the assembling of sound functions of the self-adaptive learning, association and fuzzy information processing of fuzzy mathematics and neural network methods. The case computational results of Guangxi flood season (JJA) rainfall show that the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean relative error (MRE) of the prediction during 1998-2002 are 68.8 mm and 9.78%, and in comparison with the regression method, under the conditions of the same predictors and period they are 97.8 mm and 12.28% respectively. Furthermore, it is also found from the stability analysis of the modular model that the change of the prediction results of independent samples with training times in the stably convergent interval of the model is less than 1.3 mm. The obvious oscillation phenomenon of prediction results with training times, such as in the common back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model, does not occur, indicating a better practical application potential of the MFNN model. 展开更多
关键词 modular fuzzy neural network short-term climate prediction flood season
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Short-term travel flow prediction method based on FCM-clustering and ELM 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Xing-chao HU Jian-ming +1 位作者 LIANG Wei ZHANG Yi 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第6期1344-1350,共7页
Short-term travel flow prediction has been the core of the intelligent transport systems(ITS). An advanced method based on fuzzy C-means(FCM) and extreme learning machine(ELM) has been discussed by analyzing predictio... Short-term travel flow prediction has been the core of the intelligent transport systems(ITS). An advanced method based on fuzzy C-means(FCM) and extreme learning machine(ELM) has been discussed by analyzing prediction model. First, this model takes advantages of ability to adapt to nonlinear systems and the fast speed of ELM algorithm. Second, with FCM-clustering function, this novel model can get the clusters and the membership in the same cluster, which means that the associated observation points have been chosen. Therefore, the spatial relations can be used by giving the weight to every observation points when the model trains and tests the ELM. Third, by analyzing the actual data in Haining City in 2016, the feasibility and advantages of FCM-ELM prediction model have been shown when compared with other prediction algorithms. 展开更多
关键词 intelligent transportation systems (ITS) TRAVEL flow prediction extreme learning machine (ELM) FCM-clustering SPATIO-TEMPORAL relation
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An Integrated Analysis of Yield Prediction Models:A Comprehensive Review of Advancements and Challenges
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作者 Nidhi Parashar Prashant Johri +2 位作者 Arfat Ahmad Khan Nitin Gaur Seifedine Kadry 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第7期389-425,共37页
The growing global requirement for food and the need for sustainable farming in an era of a changing climate and scarce resources have inspired substantial crop yield prediction research.Deep learning(DL)and machine l... The growing global requirement for food and the need for sustainable farming in an era of a changing climate and scarce resources have inspired substantial crop yield prediction research.Deep learning(DL)and machine learning(ML)models effectively deal with such challenges.This research paper comprehensively analyses recent advancements in crop yield prediction from January 2016 to March 2024.In addition,it analyses the effectiveness of various input parameters considered in crop yield prediction models.We conducted an in-depth search and gathered studies that employed crop modeling and AI-based methods to predict crop yield.The total number of articles reviewed for crop yield prediction using ML,meta-modeling(Crop models coupled with ML/DL),and DL-based prediction models and input parameter selection is 125.We conduct the research by setting up five objectives for this research and discussing them after analyzing the selected research papers.Each study is assessed based on the crop type,input parameters employed for prediction,the modeling techniques adopted,and the evaluation metrics used for estimatingmodel performance.We also discuss the ethical and social impacts of AI on agriculture.However,various approaches presented in the scientific literature have delivered impressive predictions,they are complicateddue to intricate,multifactorial influences oncropgrowthand theneed for accuratedata-driven models.Therefore,thorough research is required to deal with challenges in predicting agricultural output. 展开更多
关键词 Machine learning crop yield prediction deep learning remote sensing long short-term memory time series prediction systematic literature review
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An Approach for Improving Short-Term Prediction of Summer Rainfall over North China by Decomposing Interannual and Decadal Variability 被引量:2
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作者 HAN Leqiong LI Shuanglin LIU Na 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第2期435-448,共14页
A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and d... A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model outputs.Both predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal components.Two predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample validation.For the interannual timescale,850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models' hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct predictors.For the decadal timescale,two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) indices were used as predictors.Then,the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total rainfall.The prediction was compared with the models' raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale decomposition.In comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean,the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher,with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm d-1.The improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall,with the coefficients ranging from-0.1 to 0.87,obviously higher than the models' raw hindcasted rainfall results.Thus,the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions. 展开更多
关键词 summer rainfall short-term prediction decomposing DOWNSCALING
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A real-time prediction method for tunnel boring machine cutter-head torque using bidirectional long short-term memory networks optimized by multi-algorithm 被引量:6
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作者 Xing Huang Quantai Zhang +4 位作者 Quansheng Liu Xuewei Liu Bin Liu Junjie Wang Xin Yin 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第3期798-812,共15页
Based on data from the Jilin Water Diversion Tunnels from the Songhua River(China),an improved and real-time prediction method optimized by multi-algorithm for tunnel boring machine(TBM)cutter-head torque is presented... Based on data from the Jilin Water Diversion Tunnels from the Songhua River(China),an improved and real-time prediction method optimized by multi-algorithm for tunnel boring machine(TBM)cutter-head torque is presented.Firstly,a function excluding invalid and abnormal data is established to distinguish TBM operating state,and a feature selection method based on the SelectKBest algorithm is proposed.Accordingly,ten features that are most closely related to the cutter-head torque are selected as input variables,which,in descending order of influence,include the sum of motor torque,cutter-head power,sum of motor power,sum of motor current,advance rate,cutter-head pressure,total thrust force,penetration rate,cutter-head rotational velocity,and field penetration index.Secondly,a real-time cutterhead torque prediction model’s structure is developed,based on the bidirectional long short-term memory(BLSTM)network integrating the dropout algorithm to prevent overfitting.Then,an algorithm to optimize hyperparameters of model based on Bayesian and cross-validation is proposed.Early stopping and checkpoint algorithms are integrated to optimize the training process.Finally,a BLSTMbased real-time cutter-head torque prediction model is developed,which fully utilizes the previous time-series tunneling information.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the model in the verification section is 7.3%,implying that the presented model is suitable for real-time cutter-head torque prediction.Furthermore,an incremental learning method based on the above base model is introduced to improve the adaptability of the model during the TBM tunneling.Comparison of the prediction performance between the base and incremental learning models in the same tunneling section shows that:(1)the MAPE of the predicted results of the BLSTM-based real-time cutter-head torque prediction model remains below 10%,and both the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and correlation coefficient(r)between measured and predicted values exceed 0.95;and(2)the incremental learning method is suitable for realtime cutter-head torque prediction and can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and generalization capacity of the model during the excavation process. 展开更多
关键词 Tunnel boring machine(TBM) Real-time cutter-head torque prediction Bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) Bayesian optimization Multi-algorithm fusion optimization Incremental learning
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Prediction of length-of-day using extreme learning machine 被引量:5
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作者 Lei Yu Zhao Danning Cai Hongbing 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2015年第2期151-159,共9页
Traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) such as back-propagation neural networks (BPNN) provide good predictions of length-of-day (LOD). However, the determination of network topology is difficult and time ... Traditional artificial neural networks (ANN) such as back-propagation neural networks (BPNN) provide good predictions of length-of-day (LOD). However, the determination of network topology is difficult and time consuming. Therefore, we propose a new type of neural network, extreme learning machine (ELM), to improve the efficiency of LOD predictions. Earth orientation parameters (EOP) C04 time-series provides daily values from International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), which serves as our database. First, the known predictable effects that can be described by functional models-such as the effects of solid earth, ocean tides, or seasonal atmospheric variations--are removed a priori from the C04 time-series. Only the residuals after the subtraction of a priori model from the observed LOD data (i.e., the irregular and quasi-periodic variations) are employed for training and predictions. The predicted LOD is the sum of a prior extrapolation model and the ELM predictions of the residuals. Different input patterns are discussed and compared to optimize the network solution. The prediction results are analyzed and compared with those obtained by other machine learning-based prediction methods, including BPNN, generalization regression neural networks (GRNN), and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). It is shown that while achieving similar prediction accuracy, the developed method uses much less training time than other methods. Furthermore, to conduct a direct comparison with the existing prediction tech- niques, the mean-absolute-error (MAE) from the proposed method is compared with that from the EOP prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC). The results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed method is comparable with that of the former techniques. The implementation of the proposed method is simple. 展开更多
关键词 Length-of-day (LOD) predictionextreme learning machine (ELM) Artificial neural networks (ANN) extreme learning machine (ELM) Earth orientation parameters (EOP)EOP prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC)Least squares
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Ship motion extreme short time prediction of ship pitch based on diagonal recurrent neural network 被引量:3
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作者 SHEN Yan XIE Mei-ping 《Journal of Marine Science and Application》 2005年第2期56-60,共5页
A DRNN (diagonal recurrent neural network) and its RPE (recurrent prediction error) learning algorithm are proposed in this paper .Using of the simple structure of DRNN can reduce the capacity of calculation. The prin... A DRNN (diagonal recurrent neural network) and its RPE (recurrent prediction error) learning algorithm are proposed in this paper .Using of the simple structure of DRNN can reduce the capacity of calculation. The principle of RPE learning algorithm is to adjust weights along the direction of Gauss-Newton. Meanwhile, it is unnecessary to calculate the second local derivative and the inverse matrixes, whose unbiasedness is proved. With application to the extremely short time prediction of large ship pitch, satisfactory results are obtained. Prediction effect of this algorithm is compared with that of auto-regression and periodical diagram method, and comparison results show that the proposed algorithm is feasible. 展开更多
关键词 extreme short time prediction diagonal recursive neural network recurrent prediction error learning algorithm UNBIASEDNESS
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Deep Learning for Financial Time Series Prediction:A State-of-the-Art Review of Standalone and HybridModels
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作者 Weisi Chen Walayat Hussain +1 位作者 Francesco Cauteruccio Xu Zhang 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2024年第4期187-224,共38页
Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep lear... Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions. 展开更多
关键词 Financial time series prediction convolutional neural network long short-term memory deep learning attention mechanism FINANCE
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