Assessment on Energy Self-Sufficiency Rate for Building Integrated Photovoltaics and Fuel Cell System in Japan

A building integrated photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cell (FC) system is proposed for assessment of the energy self-sufficiency rate in a city in Japan. The electricity consumed in the building is mainly supplied by solar panels, while the gap between the energy demand and supply is solved by the FC that is powered by the H2 produced by water electrolysis with surplus power of PV. A desktop case study of using the proposed system in Tsu city which is located in central part of Japan, has been conducted. The results found that the self-sufficiency rates of PV system to electricity demand of households (RPV) during the daytime in April and July are higher than those in January and October. The results also reveal that the self-sufficiency rate of FC system to the electricity demand (RFC) is 15% - 38% for the day when the mean amount of horizontal solar radiation is obtained in January, April, July and October. In addition, it is found the optimum tilt angle of solar panel installed on the roof of the buildings should be 0 degree, i.e., placed horizontally.

China’s Proactive Fiscal Policy

In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.

Modelling the Iranian Petroleum Contract fiscal regime using bargaining game theory to guide contract negotiators

Based on Iran's sixth development plan,the country's oil and gas industry requires an investment of about$200 bn in the next five years to increase production.The Iranian government,to attract and motivate international oil company investment in their oil and gas fields,has presented a new type of risk service contract:the Iranian Petroleum Contract(IPC).This paper summarizes the features of the IPC and presents mathematical models of its fiscal regime for the benefit and guidance of both the National Iranian Oil Company(NIOC)and the contractors.Next,adopting bargaining game theory provides a mathematical model for reaching a win-win situation between the NIOC and the contractor.Finally,a numerical example is given and a sensitivity analysis performed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed models.The contractor and the NIOC may use these models when preparing their proposal and in the course of actual negotiations to calculate their internal rate of return,remuneration fee,and net present value for developing the fields at different conditions of their bargaining power,and derive a logical bargain to protect their best possible interests.

From Government to Enterprises:How Tax Sharing Interacts with Tax Rates

Tax sharing embodies central-local government fiscal relations and tax rates reflect government-market relations.Research on the interactions between tax sharing and tax rates helps uncover the effects of central-local fiscal relations on government-market relations.According to our study,China's flexible tax sharing and differential tax rates facing firms are two important typical facts;theoretical analysis discovered that effective corporate tax rates are influenced by local government preferences and tax sharing ratio;empirical analysis found that increasing CIT and VAT sharing ratios for governments at city and county levels led to the reduction of tax evasion and increase of effective tax rates.The above conclusions have revealed the unique mechanism of how government-market relations are influenced by fiscal system,explains the sources of differential tax rates facing Chinese firms,and provides reference for next-step fiscal reform.

Energy Assessment of Building Integrated Photovoltaics and Fuel Cell Systems: Design Study for Building(s) of Mie, Japan

A building integrated energy system (photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cell (FC)) is proposed for assessment of the energy self-sufficiency rate in five cities of Mie prefecture in Japan. In this work, it is considered that the electricity requirement of the building is provided by the building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) system and the gap between the energy demand and BIPV supply is fulfilled by the FC. The FC is powered by the electrolytic H2 produced from the surplus power of PV. A design study of using the proposed system in five cities in Mie prefecture, which are in center part of Japan, has been performed. It has been observed that the monthly power production from BIPV is higher in spring and summer, while it is lower in autumn and winter at all considered locations. The self-sufficiency rate of the FC system is higher with decreasing households’ number and it has been observed that the 12 households are more suitable for full cover of the electricity demand by the combined system of PV and FC. The relationship between the households’ number and self-sufficiency rate of the FC system per solar PV installation area can be expressed by exponential curve. The coefficient of the exponential curve can predict the suitable city for the BIPV system with FC system utilizing electrolytic H2 generated by using excess energy from the PV system.

Energy Characteristics of an Integrated Power Generation System with Photovoltaic and Fuel Cell

An integrated energy system (with photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cell (FC) for building) is proposed and assessed in term of its energy self-sufficiency rate in seven cities (Nagoya, Toyota, Tajimi, Takayama, Ogaki, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka) in Tokai region in Japan in this paper. In this work, it is considered that the electricity requirement of the building for household users is provided by a building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) system and the gap between the energy demand and BIPV supply is fulfilled by the FC. The FC is powered by the electrolytic H2 produced when PV power was in surplus. Based on the study of applying the proposed system in seven cities, which clarifies the effectiveness of the integrated BIPV, electrolytic H2 and FC power generation system, a universal system model has been developed in this paper. It has been observed that the monthly power production from BIPV as well as FC system are higher in spring and summer, while they are both lower in autumn and winter at all considered locations. The self-sufficiency rate of the FC system is higher with decreasing households’ number and it has been observed that 16 is the most appropriate number of households in a building, whose electricity demand could be fully covered by the integrated PV and FC system. Due to its climate condition, Hamamatsu is the best city in the region for installing the proposed system. The correlation between the households’ number and self-sufficiency rate of the FC system per solar PV installation area can be expressed by the regression curve in the form of y = ax-b well.

养老保险全国统筹:差别缴费率抑或统一缴费率?——基于基金可持续性与财政责任视角

2022年1月1日,我国启动实施余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度,要求在全国范围内实现养老保险“五统一”,但我国养老保险缴费率还未统一。随着全国统筹政策的推进,在全国范围内是继续维持差别缴费率还是统一缴费率,是值得深入探讨的问题。本文借鉴税收领域的拉弗曲线,构建计量与精算模型,从基金可持续性与财政责任视角研究发现:(1)养老保险政策缴费率与实际缴费率之间存在倒U型关系,拐点处的政策缴费率为27.6%。(2)如果继续维持差别缴费率,余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度可实施至2041年,2024—2050年累计财政责任为7423524.546亿元。(3)如果统一缴费率,余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度仍可实施至2041年,2024—2050年累计财政责任为6488988.037亿元,相较于差别缴费率,累计财政责任下降12.6%。(4)进一步引入延迟法定退休年龄政策,在统一缴费率的情形下,2024—2050年累计财政责任下降14.1%—54.4%。(5)执行养老保险基金全国统收统支制度,在统一缴费率并实施延迟法定退休年龄政策的情形下,相较于全国统筹制度,2024—2050年累计财政责任下降3.3%—9.2%。综上,在基金可持续性的基础上,为缓解财政压力,应推动养老保险缴费率的全国统一,并逐步推进延迟法定退休年龄政策,实现养老保险基金全国统收统支。

激发地方经济活力 推动经济持续向好——中国宏观经济形势分析与2024年下半年展望

当前中国出现了实际经济增速低于潜在增速的现象,集中表现为物价低迷、消费者信心和企业景气度不足、失业率回落仍不明显。出现这些现象,除房地产市场低迷和消费需求不振外,一个关键的因素是在化债压力下地方政府支出过快缩减,这不仅导致政府部门去除对债务还本付息支出后的实际需求显著下降,更是挤压了部分民营企业的资金。为实现2035年发展目标,必须进一步全面深化改革,增强忧患意识,全力避免因经济长期处于潜在增速之下运行而导致的潜在经济增速进一步下行的风险。同时,需要重新认识国债的性质以及国债在中国式现代化进程中的作用,大规模增发国债置换地方债,以此激发地方经济发展活力,并引导地方政府从重视投资与生产转向重视消费与居民收入,以高质量发展推动实现中国式现代化。

金融发展、税收中性与企业税负

“十四五”规划指出要健全符合高质量发展要求的财税金融制度。本文关注税收中性和税收稳定器在微观企业的实践和表现,以阐述和论证金融发展对企业实际税收负担的影响机制。基于内生经济增长模型,引入金融发展和企业投资成本的概念,进行理论分析发现,在中国经济的实际特征下,随着金融发展程度的提高,地方政府通过降低企业的实际税率来扩大企业产出,从而推动社会福利最优化。经验证据表明,较高金融发展水平使企业融资成本降低,鼓励企业选择债务融资机制,有利于降低企业投资成本,提高企业经济效益和利润。这也有利于地方政府增加税收收入,缓解财政压力,并进一步降低企业税负,从而再次推动企业产出的扩大。研究结果表明,当金融发展水平提高10%,该地区企业所得税、增值税和总体税负的实际税率将分别减少1.59%、0.76%、1.02%。本文的结论可为壮大市场主体、提升政府宏观治理能力以及深化财税金融体制改革提供参考和建议。

中国省级财政自给率对新质生产力的影响研究

基于2014—2022年中国29个省份的面板数据,文章采用双重固定效应模型对地方政府财政自给率与各地新质生产力水平之间的关系进行了检验。研究发现,随着地方政府财政自给率的增加,该地区的新质生产力水平也会提高;通过异质性检验得出,中部地区和西部地区的财政自给率对新质生产力水平有明显的促进作用,且西部地区的作用更为明显。虽然东部地区的系数并不显著,但是仍然为正。总体来看,我国西部地区财政自给率对新质生产力的影响最为显著,中部地区次之,东部地区最不显著。通过中介效应分析,发现地区的财政自给率通过影响全要素生产率影响新质生产力水平。因此,还可以通过提高传统产业的效率增加新质生产力,推动地区的高质量发展。

中国财政风险两大警戒线的测算研究

在国际金融危机仍在蔓延和深化的条件下,我国于2008年重启的积极财政政策将持续较长时间,但由此导致的财政风险将对积极财政政策能走多远产生重要影响。本文在模型推导基础上,对我国财政风险两大警戒线进行实证测算,认为运用《马约》中所谓的"国际警戒线"来判断中国财政风险状况并不科学合理。主要研究发现:(1)我国财政赤字率和公债负担率的警戒线分别约为4.05%、49.05%,这与《马约》中的财政标准有较大差异。(3)以测算出的财政风险两大警戒线为评判基准,发现目前我国财政风险状况尚处于可控的、安全的区间,如2008年我国实际的财政赤字率和公债负担率尚与警戒线值分别相差约3.68%和31.33%,即具有较大的政策回旋余地和操作空间。

中国各省区财政偿债能力的比较与演进:2005—2012

借鉴国际信用评级机构的主权信用评级管理经验,设计中国各省区财政偿债能力的分层指标体系,测算2005—2012年省域财政偿债能力的客观熵值法量化评级结果。研究表明,中国省际财政偿债能力持续走低,并呈现出从东到西逐级递减的阶梯状布局,从中央到省级以下政府示范延伸的非对称财权事权分配框架使得西部基层政府的偿债能力尤其孱弱,而东、西两大区域内部的偿债能力正逐步趋同。为此,亟需在财政部门组建地方政府债务监控机构,实现地方财政偿债风险的区域联动预警,以"事前设限、事中控管、事后调整"的"三位一体"式动态监管策略,强化地方财政偿债能力。

利率市场化对中国财政政策效应的影响——基于动态随机一般均衡的研究

参照Tsung-wu Ho(2001)假设政府财政支出的目标是实现居民效用最大化,将政府支出作为内生变量纳入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,分析和预测利率市场化进程中,均衡利率上升对中国财政政策效应的影响。模型的数值波动模拟显示,均衡利率上升能有效改善经济结构,减小产出和通胀面对技术冲击、财政与货币政策冲击的波动。脉冲响应结果显示,积极的财政政策对投资和消费存在挤出效应,但是短期内能够有效的促进经济增长。利率市场化进程中均衡利率上升使得消费和投资面对政府财政政策冲击时的挤出效应增强,但由于利率上升带来经济结构的调整,短期内政府支出冲击反而能更有效地刺激经济增长,长期内对产出的负向影响并没有明显增强。

影响我国中央政府国债依存度因素的实证分析

近来,国内有些学者认为我国积极财政政策应该淡出,然而温家宝总理提出新一届政府将继续实施积极财政政策。本文以改革开放以来为研究时间段,取国债依存度(Y)为因变量,滞后一期国债依存度(Y-1)、宏观税率(X1)、财政收入集中度(X2)为自变量,应用BOX-COX变换等统计工具揭示了它们之间的相关关系。研究结果提示,宏观税率对国债依存度的正向作用,弱于财政收入集中度的反向作用。

机关事业单位养老保险统筹账户降低缴费率对财政支出的影响研究

围绕养老保险体系更加公平和可持续发展的宗旨,结合供给侧改革降费率的要求,本文研究了机关事业单位并轨后统筹账户的财政支出水平和降费率后财政支出的变动。在理论分析的基础上构建数理模型定量分析发现,并轨后统筹账户的财政支出呈平稳缓慢地增长,延迟退休对降低财政支出的作用十分显著。缴费率降低到16%以后,统筹账户养老金财政支出增加,统筹账户降费率的财政负担弹性约为-2.07。敏感性分析发现研究结论稳健性较好,指标参数的敏感性由强到弱依次为延迟退休政策、统筹账户养老金替代率、经济增长速度和非财政全额拨款单位人数占比。在此基础上本文提出了相关建议。

人口年龄结构、财政政策与中国高储蓄率

论文以1999—2009年的省际面板数据为样本,对人口年龄结构、财政影响与高储蓄率的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现:(1)影响我国高储蓄率的主要因素不是人口年龄结构,而是经济体的转型特征。(2)人口年龄结构对我国储蓄率的影响存在着明显的城乡差异,其中少儿抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正;老年抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负。(3)财政收支比重对城乡居民储蓄率的影响也存在着明显的差异,税收规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负;支出规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正。上述发现对于中国未来的改革取向具有重要的启示。

中国页岩气资源财税扶持政策对产业发展的影响

"十二五"以来国家出台了多项扶持政策以推动页岩气产业发展。2018年2月,在"十三五"页岩气财政补贴政策的基础上,国家有关部门又出台了页岩气资源税减征30%的税收优惠政策。按照目前6%的油气资源税征收税率,气价1.20元/m^3,单井综合成本5500万元/口(含地面500万元/口),单井最终可采储量分别按照0.6×10~8m^3、0.8×10~8m^3、1.0×10~8m^3和1.2×10~8m^3,对比分析资源税减征前后气井开发的经济效益指标。资源税减征30%后,对于单井最终可采储量1×10~8m^3的气井,内部收益率可提升1.1个百分点,生产成本降低约0.02元/m^3。若考虑页岩气财政补贴,在单井最终可采储量1×10~8m^3的情景下,内部收益率可达到10%以上。如果财政补贴和资源税减征等扶持政策到位,"十四五"期间埋深超过3500m的11×10^(12)m^3深层页岩气资源和埋深3500m以浅的5×10^(12)m^3低效页岩气资源有望实现有效开发。建议相关部门尽快落实"十四五"页岩气财政扶持政策,而页岩气勘探开发企业要合理优化页岩气开发部署和产量规模,加快深层、低效页岩气开发的示范试验,提升页岩气产量规模。

对我国近期最优税收负担率量值的大致估计

有关我国实际税收负担率的高低及其走向问题,一直是学术界争论不休的话题。文章首先从衡量税收负担率的指标体系、税收负担率区间选择的理论模型等问题出发,对世界各国税收负担率差异形成的原因进行了分析,然后对我国近期最优税收负担率的量值做了大致的估计。自20世纪90年代以来,我国的税收负担率一直稳定在10%～18%的水平,这与我国目前能够接受的最优税收负担率已相当接近。在这种情况下,如何使有限的财政收入得到更为有效地利用应该成为我国今后财税体制改革考虑的重点。

财政政策与经常项目赤字关系研究

经常项目赤字是货币危机或金融危机的主要原因之一。财政政策作为政府调控经常的一个重要政策工具 ,对经常项目有显著影响。本文从理论和实践上对财政政策与经常项目赤字之间的关系进行了深入研究。并且分析了当前我国所执行的扩张性的财政政策对我国经常项目的平衡可能产生的不利影响。

中国地方政府税收竞争对FDI地域选择的实证分析

在中国式财政分权的背景下,以GDP为主的绩效考评促使地方政府普遍存在强烈的引资冲动,加剧了中国地方性税收激励政策竞争的激烈程度。这种地方政府间税收竞争加剧了FDI在中国区域分布的不均衡,并直接影响到中国区域经济的非均衡发展。本文在理论上分析了政府间税收竞争对FDI地域分布的影响机理,实证研究表明,自从2008年以来我国实行的内外资统一税制正在发挥应有的公平功能。今后在合理引导与高效利用FDI方面,应该坚持税制公平原则、弱化地方政府的恶性税收竞争动力并着力优化FDI的软环境。