Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Service Value in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area,China

As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.

Spatiotemporal evolution and future simulation of land use/land cover in the Turpan-Hami Basin,China

The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region's unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.

Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Land use scenarios simulation in ecological conservation area:A case study of Miyun district,Beijing

Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.

Considering Regional Connectivity and Policy Factors in the Simulation of Land Use Change in New Areas:A Case Study of Nansha New District,China

Numerous emerging development areas worldwide are receiving attention;however,current research on land use change simulation primarily concentrates on cities,urban clusters,or larger scales.Moreover,there is a limited focus on understanding the impact of regional connectivity with surrounding cities and policy factors on land use change in these new areas.In this context,the present study utilizes a cellular automata(CA)model to investigate land use changes in the case of Nansha New District in Guangzhou,China.Three scenarios are examined,emphasizing conventional locational factors,policy considerations,and the influence of regional connectivity with surrounding cities.The results reveal several key findings:(1)Between 2015 and 2021,Nansha New District experienced significant land use changes,with the most notable shifts observed in cultivated land,water area,and construction land.(2)The comprehensive scenario exhibited the highest simulation accuracy,indicating that Nansha New District,as an emerging area,is notably influenced by policy factors and regional connectivity with surrounding cities.(3)Predictions for land use changes in Nansha by 2030,based on the scenario with the highest level of simulation accuracy,suggest an increase in the proportion of cultivated and forest land areas,alongside a decrease in the proportion of construction land and water area.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant studies and policymakers alike.

Simulation of Urban Land Expansion Under Ecological Constraints in Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration,China

Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.

Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

A novel framework of ecological risk management for urban development in ecologically fragile regions: A case study of Turpan City, China

Assessing and managing ecological risks in ecologically fragile areas remain challenging at present.To get to know the ecological risk situation in Turpan City,China,this study constructed an ecological risk evaluation system to obtain the ecological risk level(ERL)and ecological risk index(ERI)based on the multi-objective linear programming-patch generation land use simulation(MOP-PLUS)model,analyzed the changes in land use and ecological risk in Turpan City from 2000 to 2020,and predicted the land use and ecological risk in 2030 under four different scenarios(business as usual(BAU),rapid economic development(RED),ecological protection priority(EPP),and eco-economic equilibrium,(EEB)).The results showed that the conversion of land use from 2000 to 2030 was mainly between unused land and the other land use types.The ERL of unused land was the highest among all the land use types.The ecological risk increased sharply from 2000 to 2010 and then decreased from 2010 to 2020.According to the value of ERI,we divided the ecological risk into seven levels by natural breakpoint method;the higher the level,the higher the ecological risk.For the four scenarios in 2030,under the EPP scenario,the area at VII level was zero,while the area at VII level reached the largest under the RED scenario.Comparing with 2020,the areas at I and II levels increased under the BAU,EPP,and EEB scenarios,while decreased under the RED scenario.The spatial distributions of ecological risk of BAU and EEB scenarios were similar,but the areas at I and II levels were larger and the areas at V and VI levels were smaller under the EEB scenario than under the BAU scenario.Therefore,the EEB scenario was the optimal development route for Turpan City.In addition,the results of spatial autocorrelation showed that the large area of unused land was the main reason affecting the spatial pattern of ecological risk under different scenarios.According to Geodetector,the dominant driving factors of ecological risk were gross domestic product rating(GDPR),soil type,population,temperature,and distance from riverbed(DFRD).The interaction between driving factor pairs amplified their influence on ecological risk.This research would help explore the low ecological risk development path for urban construction in the future.

Ecological security pattern-based simulation for land use structure change:a case study in Ezhou City,China

The ecological environment quality is an important constraint and an optimization objective for land resource allocation.Integrating ecological service value(ESV)accounting and ecological security pattern(ESP)delineation,and combining with the land use structure of 2004/2010/2016 in Ezhou City,this research laid out the urban ESP based on ESV with Net Primary Productivity(NPP),and made it as the main influence factor to simulate land use structure in 2022.The results indicated that:1)The water body has the biggest contribution to ESV,while the construction land has the minimum;2)91 ecological corridors are extracted,of which 28 were important ecological corridors;there were 36 ecological nodes extracted,including 17 important nodes;3)According to ESV,Ezhou City was divided into four security zones.The area of ecological restoration zone was the largest,and human activity core zone area was the smallest;4)In the no ESP protection scenarios and ESP protection scenarios separately,the net increase area of construction land is from 868.5 hm^(2) to 52.74 hm^(2) in the ecological core protection area;the construction land in the human activity core area has been increased by 2342.31 hm^(2) in protected scene,766.23 hm^(2) more than that of the unprotected scene.The results show that the division of security zones promoted the relocation of construction land from ecological protection core zone to human activity core zone,which can protect the ecological environment effectively,and the ESP-based simulation can provide the decision-making reference to coordinate the relationship of regional land resource allocation and the ecological environment protection.

城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响研究——以合肥市为例

城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城市扩张对生态安全格局的影响程度,综合运用生态遥感指数、最小累积阻力模型、电路理论和斑块生成土地利用模拟模型,构建合肥市生态安全格局,识别生态夹点和生态障碍点,再从模拟验证的基础上(总体精度为94.71%,Kappa系数为90.04%,Fom值为0.102),预测了2030—2040年的城市扩张,并根据预测结果探讨城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响程度。研究发现:合肥市生态环境质量整体呈现南高中低的分布格局,识别出合肥市生态源地共计35处,源地间活跃生态廊道70条,非活跃廊道共17条,生态夹点290个,生态障碍点112个。2020—2040年合肥市城乡、工矿居民用地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积将不断增加,而耕地以及草地面积将持续减少。2020—2040年期间城镇建成区分别侵占了生态廊道、源地、夹点、障碍点面积为55.95、10.51、1.04、1.35 km 2。研究结果可为今后快速发展城市的生态环境治理和国土空间生态保护修复工作提供理论依据和技术参考。

Projections of land use changes under the plant functional type classification in different SSP-RCP scenarios in China

Land use projections are crucial for climate models to forecast the impacts of land use changes on the Earth’s system.However,the spatial resolution of existing global land use projections(e.g.,0.25°×0.25°in the Land-Use Harmonization(LUH2)datasets)is still too coarse to drive regional climate models and assess mitigation effectiveness at regional and local scales.To generate a high-resolution land use product with the newest integrated scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways(SSPs-RCPs)for various regional climate studies in China,here we first conduct land use simulations with a newly developed Future Land Uses Simulation(FLUS)model based on the trajectories of land use demands extracted from the LUH2 datasets.On this basis,a new set of land use projections under the plant functional type(PFT)classification,with a temporal resolution of 5 years and a spatial resolution of 5 km,in eight SSP-RCP scenarios from 2015 to 2100 in China is produced.The results show that differences in land use dynamics under different SSP-RCP scenarios are jointly affected by global assumptions and national policies.Furthermore,with improved spatial resolution,the data produced in this study can sufficiently describe the details of land use distribution and better capture the spatial heterogeneity of different land use types at the regional scale.We highlight that these new land use projections at the PFT level have a strong potential for reducing uncertainty in the simulation of regional climate models with finer spatial resolutions.

Simulating multiple urban land use changes by integrating transportation accessibility and a vector-based cellular automata:a case study on city of Toronto

The accessibility provided by the transportation system plays an essential role in driving urban growth and urban functional land use changes.Conventional studies on land use simulation usually simplified the accessibility as proximities and adopted the grid-based simulation strategy,leading to the insufficiencies of characterizing spatial geometry of land parcels and simulating subtle land use changes among urban functional types.To overcome these limita-tions,an Accessibility-interacted Vector-based Cellular Automata(A-VCA)model was proposed for the better simulation of realistic land use change among different urban functional types.The accessibility at both local and zonal scales derived from actual travel time data was considered as a key driver of fine-scale urban land use changes and was integrated into the vector-based CA simulation process.The proposed A-VCA model was tested through the simulation of urban land use changes in the City of Toronto,Canada,during 2012-2016.A vector-based CA without considering the driving factor of accessibility(VCA)and a popular grid-based CA model(Future Land Use Simulation,FLUS)were also implemented for compar-isons.The simulation results reveal that the proposed A-VCA model is capable of simulating fine-scale urban land use changes with satisfactory accuracy and good morphological feature(kappa=0.907,figure of merit=0.283,and cumulative producer’s accuracy=72.83%±1.535%).The comparison also shows significant outperformance of the A-VCA model against the VCA and FLUS models,suggesting the effectiveness of the accessibility-interactive mechanism and vector-based simulation strategy.The proposed model provides new tools for a better simula-tion of fine-scale land use changes and can be used in assisting the formulation of urban and transportation planning.

Development vs.conservation in limited urban sprawl:An integrated framework for resolving the urban boundary dilemma in China

The strategic delineation of the urban development boundary(UDB)is an effective initiative for efficient land resource allocation and for facilitating planned urban development.To align with sustainable development objectives,UDB definitions have evolved to reconcile urban development with ecological preservation.This study presents a UDB delineation framework from an integrated perspective that incorporates both demand-oriented and comprehensive constraints.Specifically,the urban construction land demand area was estimated based on population projections,meanwhile,the ecological red line(ERL)was delineated and integrated into the evaluation of the construction land suitability.Subsequently,with the demand area as the simulation target and unsuitable areas as comprehensive constraints,the UDB was delineated by simulating future land use patterns.The proposed framework was applied to Wuhan,a rapidly urbanizing city in central China,where the delineation of the UDB serves the dual purpose of managing the rapid expansion of built-up land and achieving a harmonious balance between urban development imperatives and ecological protection goals.Moreover,based on the results and analysis,policy implications for the rational spatial planning of Wuhan were proposed,encompassing the spatial patterns and scientific decision-making in ecological conservation and urban development.The results demonstrate that the efficacy of adopting a comprehensive perspective in delineating UDB effectively reconciles the competing needs of urban development and conservation.The framework and the policy insights derived in this study could inform spatial planning efforts not only in Wuhan but also in other cities facing the dilemma of urban development and ecological protection.

综合气候和土地利用变化协同效应的玉米产量估算——以中国吉林省为例

Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning.Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize,but few studies have examined their synergistic impact on maize production.In this study,we propose an analysis framework based on the integration of system dynamic(SD),future land use simulation(FLUS)and a statistical crop model to prefuture maize yield variation in response to climate change and land use change in a region of central Jilin province,China.The results show that the cultivated land is likely to reduce by 862.84 km^(2) from 2030 to 2050.Nevertheless,the total maize yield is expected to increase under all four RCP scenarios due to the promotion of per hectare maize yield.the scenarios,RCP4.5 is the most beneficial to maize production,with a doubled total yield in 2050.Notably,the yield gap between different counties will be further widened,which necessitates the differentiated policies of agricultural production and farmland protection,e.g.,strengthening cultivated land protection and crop management in low-yield areas,and taking adaptation and mitigation measures to coordinate climate change and production.