Prediction of Civil Aviation Passenger Transportation Based on ARIMA Model

The passenger transportation, as an important index to describe the scale of aviation passenger transport, prediction and research, can let us understand the future trend of the aviation passenger transport, according to it, the airline can make corresponding marketing strategy adjustment. Combining with the knowledge of time series let us understand the characteristics of passenger transportation change, the R software is used to fit the data, so as to establish the ARIMA(1,1,8) model to describe the civil aviation passenger transport developing trend in the future and to make reasonable predictions.

Revenue management method and critical techniques of railway passenger transport

Purpose–Revenue management(RM)is a significant technique to improve revenue with limited resources.With the macro environment of dramatically increasing transit capacity and rapid railway transport development in China,it is necessary to involve the theory of RM into the operation and decision of railway passenger transport.Design/methodology/approach–This paper proposes the theory and framework of generalized RM of railway passenger transport(RMRPT),and the thoughts and methods of the main techniques in RMRPT,involving demand forecasting,line planning,inventory control,pricing strategies and information systems,are all studied and elaborated.The involved methods and techniques provide a sequential process to help with the decision-making for each stage of RMRPT.The corresponding techniques are integrated into the information system to support practical businesses in railway passenger transport.Findings–The combination of the whole techniques devotes to railway benefit improvement and transit resource utilization and has been applied into the practical operation and organization of railway passenger transport.Originality/value–The development of RMRPT would provide theoretical and technical support for the improvement of service quality as well as railway benefits and efficiency.

A Decade of Changes in the Transportation of Passengers： What Are the Factors That Affected the Demand？

Ten years of financial stability in Brazilian economy have gone. In this period, the regional transportation of passengers suffered exogenous impacts： economical crises, airport crises and great proportions＇ accidents, as well as impacts which were intern to the system： institutional changes （liberation of tariff promotions, many companies establishing themselves and also coming to bankruptcy）, creation of regulating institutions in the air transportation as well as the land transportation. Theoretically, it is expected that these changes have generated impacts in the demand for trips, since an environment regulated with more flexible prices and higher amounts of companies would generate a competitive environment in which the companies could struggle to attract their demand. On the other hand, the impacts which are exogenous to the system can generate responses in the sense of restoring the balance of demand. Thus, based on the theoretical experience, this article aims at analyzing empirically, through categorical variables, if there were impacts on the demand for regional trips in Brazil due to the internal or external changes. In order to perform this, monthly data from January, 1999 to December, 2009 are utilized and estimates are calculated making use of SUR （seemingly unrelated regressions）. As a result, we have the meaning of the internal and external impacts related to air and land transports, identifying that the worldwide economic crisis generated an impact at the level of the demand for transportation and also that the flexibility of tariffs allowed by ANTT （Ag^ncia Nacional de Transportes Terrestres） had an equal impact on the demand for land transportation.

ComplexTrans-Global Rail-Road Transportation System Economical and Clustered Individual and Individualised Public Transport also Prevents the Spread of Covid 19

Land transport can no longer meet the requirements.European transport can be described by these words−crowded motorways and cities,dangerous emissions,ubiquitous traffic accidents,delays,expensive railways.Solutions are being sought to transfer a large part of passengers and especially freight transport to(high-speed)rail,and efforts are moving towards electromobility,car-sharing,5G-connectivity,autonomous driving,MaaS(Mobility as a Service)-coordinated transport or hyperloop-type solutions.However,all these solutions have additional challenges and limitations.Solutions are not being searched where they really exist-in the mutual adaptation of road and rail vehicles and their deep cooperation.The ComplexTrans project shows that simply adapting the dimensions and functions of road and rail vehicles can eliminate(or at least significantly reduce)all the problems of existing land transport.The main features of the ComplexTrans system are sufficient parking spaces,reduction of urban and non-urban congestion,electric vehicles with unlimited range and cheaper than standard cars,cheaper and more accessible battery charging,“autonomous ride”,solving the overlap between passenger and freight rail transport and making it self-financing,transferring intercity freight transport to rail,replacing part of continental air transport and many others.The cost-effective and clustered individual transport and individualised public transport of the ComplexTrans system also bring very significant reductions in the risk of transmission of covid-19 and other contagious diseases during transport.

Research and development of prevention and control measures on the transmission of pathogens in compartments of passenger transport

Contagious pathogens like COVID-19 transmitted via respiratory droplets spread effortlessly in the passenger compartments of transport,significantly jeopardizing passengers’safety when taking public transportation.To date,studies on the fundamental theories of airborne droplet transmission and the engineering application of decontamination techniques are insufficient for the prevention and control of pathogens transmitting in the compartments of passenger transport.It is essential to systematically investigate the control approaches to restrain pathogens from transmitting in passenger compartments.Herein,a theoretical framework for calculating the transmission of pathogens in a complex compartment environment was proposed,and experimental platforms that satisfy the Biosafety Level-2 Laboratory safety level for compartment environment simulations were built based on a set of real train cabins.On these bases,numerical investigations on the motion of pathogen-laden droplets were conducted,and decontamination techniques were examined experimentally.Thereby,control measures on the pathogen transmission and pathogen decontamination schemes were proposed.Moreover,highly efficient decontamination devices were developed,and coping strategies for epidemic emergencies were devised.The outcomes provide theoretical and technical support for developing the next generation of transportation and the prevention and control measures cooperatively considering regular and pandemic times.

Estimating walking access area for rail transit station based on discrete choice model

The discrete choice model is used to estimate the walking access area of rail transit stations while considering the influence of existing competition from other traffic modes. The acceptable walking access area is determined according to the willingness of passengers to walk who prefer rail transit compared with bus and automobile. Empirical studies were conducted using the survey data of six stations from the rail transit in Nanjing, China. The results indicate that the rail transit is more preferable compared with bus and private automobile in this case when excluding the influence of individual and environmental factors. It is found that passengers tend to underestimate their willingness to walk. The acceptable walking access area of every rail transit station is different from each other. Suburban stations generally have a larger walking access area than downtown stations. In addition, a better walking environment and a scarcer surrounding traffic environment can also lead to a larger walking area. The model was confirmed to be effective and reasonable according to the model validation. This study can be of benefit to the passenger transportation demand estimation in the location planning and evaluation of rail transit stations.

Scheduling trains on railway network using random walk method

According to random walk, in this paper, we propose a new traffic model for scheduling trains on a railway network. In the proposed method, using some iteration rules for walkers, the departure and the arrival times of trains at each station are determined. We test the proposed method on an assumed railway network. The numerical simulations and the analytical results demonstrate that the proposed method provides an effective tool for scheduling trains. Some characteristic behaviours of train movement can be reproduced, such as train delay.

The Efficiency Improving of Traction Drive Test Bench with Supercapacitor Energy Storage System

For development of passenger electrical transport, it is necessary to use energy more rationally. One of methods of vehicle power efficiency increase is installation of on-board energy storage systems. For studying of system operation, it is necessary to carry out a lot of experiments, therefore it is favorable to use the test bench and its computer model for reduction of the number of physical experiments. In this article, the results of computer modeling for the optimization of traction drive test bench by adjusting of the operation parameters of supercapacitor energy storage are described. Test bench operation is considered in cases of the energy storage system working at various selected supercapacitor initial voltages. Maximal increase of possibility of vehicle test bench regenerative braking with minimal decrease of autonomous power supply mode possibility is investigated. There is estimated the energy storage system efficiency improving measures dependence from supercapacitor operational voltage ranges. Parameters at which the minimum losses of energy are observed are revealed. Dependence of energy storage system discharge power on the most admissible supercapacitor current is established.

Analysis of the Impact of City Transport on Life Quality in the City of Szczecin

This paper looks at public transport in the city of Szczecin.In the recent years,new means of transport have been offered by both external companies and the city.Many city inhabitants have swapped buses for city bikes,scooters and electric scooters available in large cities.A questionnaire survey has been designed to examine the public opinion on the best transport services offered by external companies and whether life quality in the city has improved owing to a wide offering of means of public transport.The paper aims at an analysis and assessment of the city transport services offered and how they influence the quality of life in the city of Szczecin.

Research on the Real-Time Dynamic Evaluation of Public Transport Passenger Service Satisfaction Based on the Internet

The current method of evaluating passenger satisfaction primarily adopts the traditional static evaluation mode,which can hardly satisfy the dynamic regulatory requirements of highway passenger transport service quality set by industry management departments.In this paper,we summarize the characteristics of real-time dynamic evaluation under the requirements of hierarchical and classified evaluation and analyze the entire process of the one-time travel service of highway passenger transport.We focus on station waiting and in-vehicle services,extract the elements most concerned by passengers as evaluation indexes,and construct a three-level index system.Subsequently,a multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is selected to construct a comprehensive evaluation model.By combining with the development level of electronic ticket purchasing and the requirements of satisfaction evaluation,we propose three data collection methods and compare and analyze their strengths and weaknesses.Finally,based on actual survey data,the effectiveness of the model is verified.The verification results show that the real-time dynamic evaluation index system based on the Internet can better satisfy evaluation requirements.

An improved methodology for evaluating energy service demand for China's passenger transport sector

China's energy service demand statistics for the passenger transport sector only cover travel activities for business purpose.The incomplete data have made it very difficult to conduct long-term scenario analysis for this sector.Thus,this study develops a methodology by refining and combining vehicle activity and travel behavior methods.By taking advantage of the two methods,the extent of uncertainty in estimates can be reduced.A detailed description of China's energy service demand in the passenger transport sector for the years 2013,2015,and 2017 are produced.Results show that there is a significant underestimation of total passenger transport turnover in governmental statistics.After reevaluation,the total passenger turnover doubled and increased by 146%,167%,and 187%,resulting in national total passenger turnover of 6783,8031,and 9406 billion passenger kilometers in 2013,2015,and 2017,respectively.The majority of missing statistics are caused by not accounting for non-operational road transport,which is dominated by private vehicles.After adjustment,the road sector share in total passenger turnover grew substantially from 30%to 40%to approximately 75%,with the proportion of urban travel continuing to increase.We found that without complete data on China's passenger turnover,it may result in more than three-fold overestimation for future travel demand,leading to inaccurate projections with much higher energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions.It is therefore very important to have a detailed and precise calculation of energy service demand in the passenger transport sector.The estimation framework and step-by-step process can also be applied to other developing countries which are confronting similar statistical issues.