El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)can be currently predicted reasonably well six months and longer,but large biases and uncertainties remain in its real-time prediction.Various approaches have been taken to impro...El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)can be currently predicted reasonably well six months and longer,but large biases and uncertainties remain in its real-time prediction.Various approaches have been taken to improve understanding of ENSO processes,and different models for ENSO predictions have been developed,including linear statistical models based on principal oscillation pattern(POP)analyses,convolutional neural networks(CNNs),and so on.Here,we develop a novel hybrid model,named as POP-Net,by combining the POP analysis procedure with CNN-long short-term memory(LSTM)algorithm to predict the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature(SST)index.ENSO predictions are compared with each other from the corresponding three models:POP model,CNN-LSTM model,and POP-Net,respectively.The POP-based pre-processing acts to enhance ENSO-related signals of interest while filtering unrelated noise.Consequently,an improved prediction is achieved in the POP-Net relative to others.The POP-Net shows a high-correlation skill for 17-month lead time prediction(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5)during the 1994-2020 validation period.The POP-Net also alleviates the spring predictability barrier(SPB).It is concluded that value-added artificial neural networks for improved ENSO predictions are possible by including the process-oriented analyses to enhance signal representations.展开更多
The objective of the present work is to provide an overview of the general circulation features in the Black Sea basin. In order to achieve this, 18 years (1993-2010) of satellite data coming from the Aviso website we...The objective of the present work is to provide an overview of the general circulation features in the Black Sea basin. In order to achieve this, 18 years (1993-2010) of satellite data coming from the Aviso website were analyzed. A description of the general circulation patterns in the Black Sea is first presented. This is followed by statistical analyses of the satellite data in 20 points covering the entire area of the sea. The reference points were chosen as follows: 12 points along the Rim cyclonic current, 3 points inside the Rim cyclonic current, 4 points on the edge of two of the biggest anticyclonic gyres outside the Rim current and one point in the northwestern shelf area of the basin. Rose graphics were drawn for the reference points for winter and summer time. Finally, 9 years of in situ data obtained from the Gloria drilling platform were analyzed and compared with the satellite data. The present study shows that most of the reference points are sensitive to seasonal changes. The current velocities depend mostly on the points location: the points located on the Rim current and on the nearshore anticyclonic eddies present higher values than the ones located in or outside the general circulation features.展开更多
Objective: To identify the dietary patterns of children during the first year of life. Methods: This is a longitudinal study of children born between September 2004 and April 2005 residing in Diamantina, MG, Brazil. D...Objective: To identify the dietary patterns of children during the first year of life. Methods: This is a longitudinal study of children born between September 2004 and April 2005 residing in Diamantina, MG, Brazil. Data were collected from children who were six, nine and twelve months of age. Data were collected at their homes using a questionnaire that included a socioeconomic and demographic profile of the family. Information on diet was obtained using 24 hour food recall. Principal Component Analysis was used to identify the dietary patterns. Results: Three dietary patterns were identified and denominated “Porridge”, “Pap” and “Family Food”. The most common dietary pattern was composed of milk, sugar and fortified flour and was negatively correlated with breastfeeding. The second dietary pattern was composed of tubers, vegetables and fruits. The third dietary pattern consisted of cereal, meat, beans and tea;this pattern was repeated at different ages, with some variation at the sixth month when artificial drinks were included and meat and tea were excluded. Conclusion: There was some variation in the dietary patterns of children;however, porridge was used predominantly in all studied ages. Information on dietary patterns may be useful for evaluating and redirecting food and nutrition policies.展开更多
A rhombic planform nonlinear cross-diffusive instability analysis is applied to a particular interaction-diffusion plant-ground water model system in an arid flat environment. This model contains a plant root suction ...A rhombic planform nonlinear cross-diffusive instability analysis is applied to a particular interaction-diffusion plant-ground water model system in an arid flat environment. This model contains a plant root suction effect as a cross-diffusion term in the ground water equation. In addition a threshold-dependent paradigm that differs from the usually employed implicit zero-threshold methodology is introduced to interpret stable rhombic patterns. These patterns are driven by root suction since the plant equation does not yield the required positive feedback necessary for the generation of standard Turing-type self-diffusive instabilities. The results of that analysis can be represented by plots in a root suction coefficient versus rainfall rate dimensionless parameter space. From those plots regions corresponding to bare ground and vegetative patterns consisting of isolated patches, rhombic arrays of pseudo spots or gaps separated by an intermediate rectangular state, and homogeneous distributions from low to high density may be identified in this parameter space. Then, a morphological sequence of stable vegetative states is produced upon traversing an experimentally-determined root suction characteristic curve as a function of rainfall through these regions. Finally, that predicted sequence along a rainfall gradient is compared with observational evidence relevant to the occurrence of leopard bush, pearled bush, or labyrinthine tiger bush vegetative patterns, used to motivate an aridity classification scheme, and placed in the context of some recent biological nonlinear pattern formation studies.展开更多
Ongoing encroachment is driving recent alpine shrubline dynamics globally,but the role of shrub-shrub interactions in shaping shrublines and their relationships with stem density changes remain poorly understood.Here,...Ongoing encroachment is driving recent alpine shrubline dynamics globally,but the role of shrub-shrub interactions in shaping shrublines and their relationships with stem density changes remain poorly understood.Here,the size and age of shrubs from 26 Salix shrubline populations along a 900-km latitudinal gradient(30°-38°N)were measured and mapped across the eastern Tibetan Plateau.Point pattern analyses were used to quantify the spatial distribution patterns of juveniles and adults,and to assess spatial associations between them.Mean intensity of univariate and bivariate spatial patterns was related to biotic and abiotic variables.Bivariate mark correlation functions with a quantitative mark(shrub height,basal stem diameter,crown width)were also employed to investigate the spatial relationships between shrub traits of juveniles and adults.Structural equation models were used to explore the relationships among conspecific interactions,patterns,shrub traits and recruitment dynamics under climate change.Most shrublines showed clustered patterns,suggesting the existence of conspecific facilitation.Clustered patterns of juveniles and conspecific interactions(potentially facilitation)tended to intensify with increasing soil moisture stress.Summer warming before 2010 triggered positive effects on population interactions and spatial patterns via increased shrub recruitment.However,summer warming after2010 triggered negative effects on interactions through reduced shrub recruitment.Therefore,shrub recruitment shifts under rapid climate change could impact spatial patterns,alter conspecific interactions and modify the direction and degree of shrublines responses to climate.These changes would have profound implications for the stability of alpine woody ecosystems.展开更多
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19060102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China[NSFCGrant Nos.41690122(41690120),and 42030410].
文摘El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)can be currently predicted reasonably well six months and longer,but large biases and uncertainties remain in its real-time prediction.Various approaches have been taken to improve understanding of ENSO processes,and different models for ENSO predictions have been developed,including linear statistical models based on principal oscillation pattern(POP)analyses,convolutional neural networks(CNNs),and so on.Here,we develop a novel hybrid model,named as POP-Net,by combining the POP analysis procedure with CNN-long short-term memory(LSTM)algorithm to predict the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature(SST)index.ENSO predictions are compared with each other from the corresponding three models:POP model,CNN-LSTM model,and POP-Net,respectively.The POP-based pre-processing acts to enhance ENSO-related signals of interest while filtering unrelated noise.Consequently,an improved prediction is achieved in the POP-Net relative to others.The POP-Net shows a high-correlation skill for 17-month lead time prediction(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5)during the 1994-2020 validation period.The POP-Net also alleviates the spring predictability barrier(SPB).It is concluded that value-added artificial neural networks for improved ENSO predictions are possible by including the process-oriented analyses to enhance signal representations.
文摘The objective of the present work is to provide an overview of the general circulation features in the Black Sea basin. In order to achieve this, 18 years (1993-2010) of satellite data coming from the Aviso website were analyzed. A description of the general circulation patterns in the Black Sea is first presented. This is followed by statistical analyses of the satellite data in 20 points covering the entire area of the sea. The reference points were chosen as follows: 12 points along the Rim cyclonic current, 3 points inside the Rim cyclonic current, 4 points on the edge of two of the biggest anticyclonic gyres outside the Rim current and one point in the northwestern shelf area of the basin. Rose graphics were drawn for the reference points for winter and summer time. Finally, 9 years of in situ data obtained from the Gloria drilling platform were analyzed and compared with the satellite data. The present study shows that most of the reference points are sensitive to seasonal changes. The current velocities depend mostly on the points location: the points located on the Rim current and on the nearshore anticyclonic eddies present higher values than the ones located in or outside the general circulation features.
文摘Objective: To identify the dietary patterns of children during the first year of life. Methods: This is a longitudinal study of children born between September 2004 and April 2005 residing in Diamantina, MG, Brazil. Data were collected from children who were six, nine and twelve months of age. Data were collected at their homes using a questionnaire that included a socioeconomic and demographic profile of the family. Information on diet was obtained using 24 hour food recall. Principal Component Analysis was used to identify the dietary patterns. Results: Three dietary patterns were identified and denominated “Porridge”, “Pap” and “Family Food”. The most common dietary pattern was composed of milk, sugar and fortified flour and was negatively correlated with breastfeeding. The second dietary pattern was composed of tubers, vegetables and fruits. The third dietary pattern consisted of cereal, meat, beans and tea;this pattern was repeated at different ages, with some variation at the sixth month when artificial drinks were included and meat and tea were excluded. Conclusion: There was some variation in the dietary patterns of children;however, porridge was used predominantly in all studied ages. Information on dietary patterns may be useful for evaluating and redirecting food and nutrition policies.
文摘A rhombic planform nonlinear cross-diffusive instability analysis is applied to a particular interaction-diffusion plant-ground water model system in an arid flat environment. This model contains a plant root suction effect as a cross-diffusion term in the ground water equation. In addition a threshold-dependent paradigm that differs from the usually employed implicit zero-threshold methodology is introduced to interpret stable rhombic patterns. These patterns are driven by root suction since the plant equation does not yield the required positive feedback necessary for the generation of standard Turing-type self-diffusive instabilities. The results of that analysis can be represented by plots in a root suction coefficient versus rainfall rate dimensionless parameter space. From those plots regions corresponding to bare ground and vegetative patterns consisting of isolated patches, rhombic arrays of pseudo spots or gaps separated by an intermediate rectangular state, and homogeneous distributions from low to high density may be identified in this parameter space. Then, a morphological sequence of stable vegetative states is produced upon traversing an experimentally-determined root suction characteristic curve as a function of rainfall through these regions. Finally, that predicted sequence along a rainfall gradient is compared with observational evidence relevant to the occurrence of leopard bush, pearled bush, or labyrinthine tiger bush vegetative patterns, used to motivate an aridity classification scheme, and placed in the context of some recent biological nonlinear pattern formation studies.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42271054)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0301)。
文摘Ongoing encroachment is driving recent alpine shrubline dynamics globally,but the role of shrub-shrub interactions in shaping shrublines and their relationships with stem density changes remain poorly understood.Here,the size and age of shrubs from 26 Salix shrubline populations along a 900-km latitudinal gradient(30°-38°N)were measured and mapped across the eastern Tibetan Plateau.Point pattern analyses were used to quantify the spatial distribution patterns of juveniles and adults,and to assess spatial associations between them.Mean intensity of univariate and bivariate spatial patterns was related to biotic and abiotic variables.Bivariate mark correlation functions with a quantitative mark(shrub height,basal stem diameter,crown width)were also employed to investigate the spatial relationships between shrub traits of juveniles and adults.Structural equation models were used to explore the relationships among conspecific interactions,patterns,shrub traits and recruitment dynamics under climate change.Most shrublines showed clustered patterns,suggesting the existence of conspecific facilitation.Clustered patterns of juveniles and conspecific interactions(potentially facilitation)tended to intensify with increasing soil moisture stress.Summer warming before 2010 triggered positive effects on population interactions and spatial patterns via increased shrub recruitment.However,summer warming after2010 triggered negative effects on interactions through reduced shrub recruitment.Therefore,shrub recruitment shifts under rapid climate change could impact spatial patterns,alter conspecific interactions and modify the direction and degree of shrublines responses to climate.These changes would have profound implications for the stability of alpine woody ecosystems.
