The effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading:Empirical analysis of provincial and threshold characteristics in China

Global population aging trends are intensifying,presenting multifaceted economic and social challenges for countries worldwide.As the world’s largest developing country,China has entered a phase of extreme demographic aging,posing significant questions about its impact on the ongoing upgrading of industrial structures.How does this demographic shift influence the upgrading of industrial structures,and does technological innovation mitigate or exacerbate this impact?The empirical results indicate that population aging impedes upgrading the industrial structure,while technological innovation positively affects the relationship between the two.Moreover,using technological innovation as a threshold variable,the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading evolves in a“gradient”manner from“impediment”to“insignificant”to“promotion”as the technological innovation levels increase.These findings offer practical guidance for tailoring industrial policies to different stages of technological advancement.

Study on the Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Aging in Henan Province

This study utilized census data from Henan Province for the years 2000,2010,and 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of population aging,defined by the proportion of the population aged 65 and above.Employing spatial analysis techniques such as spatial autocorrelation and the standard deviation ellipse,the research mapped out the progression and distribution of aging demographics.Furthermore,the study delved into the influencing factors of aging using an optimal parameters-based geographical detector.Results indicate a deepening degree of population aging in Henan Province,transitioning from an adult type to an old type structure.There is a marked positive spatial correlation among counties,with high-value aging areas initially decreasing,then increasing,and notably spreading from the central to the central and southern regions of the province.The center of gravity for population aging,specifically around Changge City and Xuchang City,exhibits a trajectory moving southeast before shifting northwest.Factor detection reveals that in 2000,2010,and 2020,the elderly dependency ratio predominantly influences the aging trend,with explanatory powers of 88.4%,87.9%,and 90.9%,respectively.Interaction analysis indicates that the interaction between the old-child ratio and the elderly dependency ratio has a strong explanatory power for the aging patterns in Henan Province,reaching 97.3%,97.0%,and 97.4%,respectively.

Improvement of the Legal System for Addressing the Issue of Elderly Care in China in the Context of Population Aging

Rapid population aging is a social reality facing China at present,and the issue of elderly care has become a hot topic of social concern.Legislation to address the issue of elderly care in the context of population aging should follow systematic concepts to achieve“vertical and horizontal integration.”In terms of content,it is necessary to formulate specific legal approaches around“the elderly and children,”with a focus on guaranteeing the livelihood and protection of the rights of the elderly while taking into account childbirth,employment and other issues.the laws should not only safeguard the social participation and labor rights of the elderly,but also effectively respond to the social challenges brought about by the aging of the population.It is also necessary to optimize the family planning policy to ease the burden of child-raising,improve the population structure and promote the long-term balanced development of the population,thus fundamentally solving the problem of population aging.the effort to improve the legal system to deal with the issue of elderly care in the context of population aging will better advance Chinese modernization.

The Impact of Population Aging on the Expenditure of Medical Insurance Fund for Urban Workers in China

Objective To explore the impact of population aging on the expenditures of medical insurance funds against the background that great changes in population structure influences economic development.Methods Through analyzing the impact of the population aging,the income and accumulated balance of the medical insurance fund,and other related factors on the expenditure of the medical insurance fund,development status of the medical insurance fund for urban employees in China since 2003 was obtained.Stata 16.0 was used to perform multiple linear regression analysis on related factors to determine the correlation between population aging and the change in medical insurance expenditures.Results and Conclusion The factors that have a greater impact on the expenditure of the medical insurance fund are the amount of income from the medical insurance,followed by the number of people over the age of 65 in China and the urban retired employees participating in medical insurance.We should focus on the sustainable development of the urban employee medical insurance fund to deal with the threat of aging.

Effects of population aging on the mortality burden of related cancers in urban and rural areas of China, 2004–2017: a population-based study

Objective:China is a developing country with urban–rural disparities and accelerating population aging.Therefore,quantifying the effects of population aging on the cancer mortality burden is urgently needed.Methods:Using data from China’s death surveillance datasets(2004–2017),we decomposed and quantified the effects of population aging and factor variations on cancer mortality rates in urban and rural China during 2004–2017 through a decomposition method.R ratios were used to assess the extent of the mortality decreases attributable to factor variations offsetting the increases attributable to population aging for 4 aging-related cancers(lung,colorectal,esophageal,and stomach cancer).Results:Overall,population aging has led to continued increases in cancer mortality rates in China during 2004–2017(mortality rates attributable to population aging:8.63/100,000 for urban men,4.21/100,000 for urban women,11.95/100,000 for rural men,and 5.66/100,000 for rural women).The 4 cancers displayed 3 patterns.The mortality rates from lung cancer in rural China and from colorectal cancer nationwide increased because of both population aging and factor variations.Population aging was primarily responsible for the growing mortality due to lung cancer in urban areas.However,for esophageal and stomach cancer,the effect of population aging was not dominant,thus resulting in decreases in mortality rates.Conclusions:Health resource allocation should prioritize areas or cancers more adversely affected by population aging.The burden of cancer will continue to increase in the future,because of rapid population aging,but can still be offset or even reversed with enhanced cancer control and prevention.

An Analysis on the Spatial Distribution of Population Aging Pressure in China

Based on comprehensive analysis of the impact of population aging to social and economic development,a comprehensive evaluation system including 18 indexes was constructed for evaluating regional pressure of population aging on social and economic development.Using statistics data of 31 regions in China from 2004 to 2008,the pressure of population aging on social and economic development,was comprehensively evaluated by using the factor analysis method.The spatial distribution of population aging in China was also analyzed.This study is to provide scientific basis for government to make strategies of coping with population aging according to regional pressure of population aging on social and economic development in China.

A New Mobile Sliding Door for Rural Elderly-friendly Suspended Bathroom and Toilet in the Context of Rural Population Aging

Taking the rural left-behind elderly as the research object,this paper made an in-depth analysis of the living needs of the rural"empty-nest elderly".Combined with the current market development situation of the elderly-friendly bathroom sliding door in China,it proposed the design scheme and industrial development strategy of the suspended bathroom sliding door,to provide a certain reference for the elderly-friendly development of home decoration basic materials for elderly homes in rural areas.

Research on the Current Characteristics and Countermeasures of Population Aging-A Case Study of Linyi City

The seventh national census data in 2020 showed that China's population aged 60 and above reached 264 million.It is projected that this number will exceed 300 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,which indicates that China will enter the stage of moderate aging from mild aging.As population aging will be the basic national context in China for a long time,coping with population aging has been elevated to a national strategy.With the deepening of population aging in China,how the elderly share the fruits of reform and development,enjoy their twilight years,and how to ensure the seniors’access to elderly care,medical services,productive aging,education,and elderly happiness is a realistic issue of common concern to the society.Linyi City is a typical case,as it is the most populous city in Shandong Province and one of the prefecture-level cities with the largest number of elderly people in the country.This paper analyzes the general pattern and current characteristics of population aging in Linyi based on the data of the seventh national census of the city.Besides,it explores the impact of population aging on economic and social development.In doing so,the paper will provide effective references and constructive recommendations to deal with a series of problems that arise along with population aging,and promote the sustainable development of the city’s population,economy,resources,and environment.

Population Aging and Control of Population Growth

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Situation of Population Aging in China and the Strategy

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Designing an Elderly-Friendly City in Cardiff: Cultivating Sense of Security for the Aging Population: Transforming Butetown for the Entertainment, Health, and Diversification of the Elderly

As an important part of urban construction,elderly-friendly construction is crucial to the formation of an elderly-friendly society,which has been widely recognized internationally.Especially after the COVID-19 pandemic,various organizations around the world have called for changes in public space and urban building planning,with an emphasis on the accessibility of green spaces.This underscores the complexity and difficulty of integrating vulnerable groups of the elderly into cities and using infrastructure and public space.

Population Aging and Housing Consumption:A Nonlinear Relationship in China

Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,

The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

In recent years, the proportion of China's elderly population is gradually increasing, and the real estate market is changing dramatically. Consequently the impact of population aging on housing demand has become increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper firstly constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of population aging and family structure on housing demand in China. Then,the model is simulated, and several scenarios of population, family structure, and real estate policies are set up. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China's population will rise at first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. As the proportion of elderly population increases, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The size of the family will gradually shrink to 2.39 people per household in 2050. The housing demand will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the following suggestion to effectively balance the housing demand in China: Completely relaxing family planning policies,imposing a real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan rate.

China＇s Population Aging from the Perspective of Public Policy

Population aging will become the norm in the Chinese society. Its challenge derives mainly from the failure of the existing socio-economic system to cope with the aging process. The intervention of public policy is therefore inevitable. This paper argues that in order to comprehensively deal with the aging problem, it is not sufficient to merely readjust population policies, policy measures focusing on the aged or policies for one or another sector. Instead, we need to reconstruct the current public policy system from the perspective of social integration and a long-term development strategy. During the reconstruction process, efforts should be made not only to coordinate the population system with other social systems, but also to coordinate short-term goals with medium and longterm strategies. Accordingly, an authoritative permanent government coordinating agency should be established and, taking into account China＇s national conditions, should redefine the social role of senior citizens, solve practical problems related to support for the aged and support the sustainable development of an aging society.

Does Population Aging Hinder the Accumulation of Human Capital?Evidence from China

There is no consensus on the impact of population aging on education investment.To explore this question,we first build an overlapping generations(OLG)model to theoretically analyze the effect of population aging on human capital investment in China,and then test our theory by conducting an empirical study based on micro household data.We find the following.(1)Theoretically,the OLG model shows that population aging has a crowding-out effect on education investment.(2)Empirically,the results show that the share of education and training expenditures decreases by 5.27 percentage points as the ratio of old people in the household increases by 100 percentage points,which confirms the crowding-out effect of population aging on human capital investment.(3)The crowding-out effect is far more intense on urban households than on rural households since health care expenditures will be greater in urban areas as population aging increases.(4)A quantile regression indicates that the negative effect of population aging on the share of educational expenditure is concentrated in households with higher shares of education expenditures.We confirm the robustness of our results using regional fixed effect and instrumental variable(Ⅳ)regressions.

The Localization, Practice and Innovation of Time Banking——On a New Approach to China's Aging Population

In the context of an aging population, the promotion of time banking as a new model of voluntary service can help alleviate the ever–increasing pressures for elderly care and services in China. The development of time banking in China has successively undergone the stage of traditional practice, the stage of infancy and exploration, as well as the stage of accelerated growth. Meanwhile, this process has also witnessed the formation of many localized innovations. To further the localization and innovation of time banking, this paper analyzes its basis in traditional culture, summarizes its process of practice and explores new directions of future innovation. Based on the summary of existing problems, this paper proposes to enhance the recognition of time banking among the public, facilitate localized innovation of time banking, promote its informatization, and involve the participation of young people, particularly college students.

Implications of an Unlimited Fertility Policy in China:Lessons from Low Fertility and Population Aging in Japan and Korea

In 2016 China began implementing a new population strategy after having maintained a one-child policy for 35 years.This paper draws on the lessons we can learn about low fertility and population aging in Japan and South Korea to consider the implications of the newly announced'universal two-child'policy in China.Japan,Korea and China share many socio-cultural characteristics and have undergone similar processes with respect to low fertility and population aging at different periods of time.Many scholars argue that China's family planning program has greatly reduced China's fertility level,but the effects of other socioeconomic factors have,in fact,had a greater impact on the reduction of the fertility rate than the one-child policy had.Considering the effects of the fertility policy that limits the number of births in China and the lessons we can get from unsuccessful fertility boosting measures in Japan and Korea,this paper suggests that a fertility policy that puts no limits on births should be adopted in China.

Four decades of studies on population aging in China

The last 4 decades of reform and opening up have not only witnessed the rapid development of China’s social economy,but have also marked the crucial transition of China’s demographic structure from one that is mature to one that is old.As China’s population has aged rapidly in recent years,studies of aging have made worthwhile achievements documenting the process.This article mainly summarizes the development of studies on aging in China during the past 40 years and finds that research into the topic of aging during these years can be divided into three phases.The phases are characterized by particular kinds of research.Phase one,the study of aging trends and causes;phase two,the study of aging characteristics and policy responses;and phase three,the study of top-level design of aging policies and programs,and the development of integrated interdisciplinary research efforts.The five main characteristics of China’s studies on aging during the past 4 decades and five future prospects for studies on aging are discussed at the end of this paper.