Bayesian Set Estimation with Alternative Loss Functions: Optimality and Regret Analysis

Decision-theoretic interval estimation requires the use of loss functions that, typically, take into account the size and the coverage of the sets. We here consider the class of monotone loss functions that, under quite general conditions, guarantee Bayesian optimality of highest posterior probability sets. We focus on three specific families of monotone losses, namely the linear, the exponential and the rational losses whose difference consists in the way the sizes of the sets are penalized. Within the standard yet important set-up of a normal model we propose: 1) an optimality analysis, to compare the solutions yielded by the alternative classes of losses;2) a regret analysis, to evaluate the additional loss of standard non-optimal intervals of fixed credibility. The article uses an application to a clinical trial as an illustrative example.

要他们道歉真的好难——谈“regret”,“sorry”和“apologize”的政治语辞区别

道歉是违背国际法义务的国际法主体对受害方的损害予以精神上的补偿所采取的法律责任形式。《奥本海国际法》指出:"不法行为者方面的正式道歉通常是必要的。"然而,自诩"文明世界"的美国却对其屡屡损害他国及其人民的权利和利益的行为拒不作出道歉。同样,其国民彬彬有礼的日本至今仍迟迟不对其侵略亚洲的历史事实作出诚恳的正式书面道歉。从美国对其他主权国家及人民的侵害并拒绝为之道歉的案例和日本对其侵略史所采取的否定、美化、甚至是颠倒黑白的态度与言行看美国、日本在对待其造成的对他国主权和人民利益受损的问题上难得作出道歉的个中缘由。

Multi-Attribute Selection Procedures Based on Regret and Rejoice for the Decision-Maker

Feelings influence human beings’decision-making;therefore,incorporation of feeling factors in decision-making is very important.Regret and rejoice are very important emotional feelings that can have a great impact on decision-making if they are considered together.While regret has received most of the attention in related research,rejoice has been less considered even though it can greatly influence people’s preferences in decision-making.Furthermore,systematically incorporating regret and rejoice in the multicriteria decision-making(MCDM)modeling frameworks for decision-making has received little research attention.In this paper,we introduce a new multiattribute selection procedure that incorporates both regret and rejoice to select the best choice.We utilize the positional advantage operator concept to develop regret and rejoice mathematical equations,and prove them.The proposed MCDM procedure that incorporates these two emotional factors offers a decision-maker the flexibility to trade off some benefits in order to gain a state of psychological satisfaction.More specifically,regret and rejoice are presentedmathematically to enable the decision-maker to determine the values of regret and rejoice,and then make the decision in which the rejoice value is higher than the regret value.To test the performance of this new procedure,we apply it to three numerical examples proposed in previous works.The results are matched with those obtained by other methods such as the regret model,VIKOR,PROMETHEE I,and PROMETHEE II,thereby proving the efficacy of the new procedure.

Wind Power Bidding Strategy Based on the Minimax Regret Criterion with Limited Distribution Information

In optimal wind bidding strategy related literatures, it is usually assumed that the full distribution information (for example, the cumulative distribution function or the probability density function) of wind power output is known. In real world applications, however, only very limited distribution information can be obtained. Therefore, the “optimal bidding strategy” obtained based on the hypothetical distribution may be far away from the true optimal one. In this paper, an optimal bidding strategy is obtained based on the minimax regret criterion. The salient feature of the new approach is that it requires only partial information of wind power distribution, for example, the expectation and the support set. Numerical test is then performed and the results suggest that the method established in this paper is effective.

Maximum Group Perceived Utility Consensus Models Considering Regret Aversion

In the consensus-reaching process(CRP),the actual utility of decision-makers(DMs)is often influenced by the psychological behavior of regret aversion.However,the influence of regret aversion on DMs’utilities is rarely taken into account in the existing consensus models.The consensus-reaching problem of DMs with regret aversion is explored to maximize their perceived utilities under a limited budget.Firstly,three basic types of perceived utility functions are constructed based on the regret theory to describe the perceived utility of DMs with various preferences.Then,considering the limited budget and individual regret aversion,the maximum perceived utility consensus models based on types of left-skewed,right-skewed,middle-skewed,and heterogeneous utility preferences are proposed to achieve the consensus that maximizes the group perceived utility.After that,an example of land-transfer price negotiation in China is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed models.Finally,the model comparison and the sensitivity analysis are presented to reveal the influence of DMs’regret aversion on the CRP.The results suggest that the DMs’regret aversion will not affect left-skewed and right-skewed groups,but will affect the consensus results of middle-skewed and heterogeneous groups.

The effects of attributes and buyer regret on overall satisfaction

The current study represents an attempt at exploring product attribute, service attribute evaluation, and buyer regret influence overall satisfaction in the buyer decision context. The data used in the project were collected as part of a large study of buyer regret. The sampling frame consisted of automobile purchases in Taiwan We have collected yield 600 questionnaires, by screening out 44 questionnaires, including those missing value or incomplete answer, and finally a usable sample of 556 questionnaires were utilized in this study. The results reinforce the finding form early research that the concept of buyer regret plays an important role for automobile purchases in the buyer decision. Results show that higher evaluations of service and product attributes lead to less buyer regret, and lower buyer regret will likely to increase overall satisfaction. Specifically, the finding indicates that buyer regret mediates the effects of the attributes on overall satisfactions. Implications for marketing theory and practitioners are discussed, and possible directions for future research are sketched.

Stability of Generalized Minimax Regret Equilibria with Scalar Set Payoff

In this paper, we first introduce the notion and model of generalized minimax regret equilibria with scalar set payoffs. After that, we study its general stability theorem under the conditions that the existence theorem of generalized minimax regret equilibrium point with scalar set payoffs holds. In other words, when the scalar set payoffs functions and feasible constraint mappings are slightly disturbed, by using Fort theorem and continuity results of set-valued mapping optimal value functions, we obtain a general stability theorem for generalized minimax regret equilibria with scalar set payoffs. At the same time, an example is given to illustrate our result.

The Influence Factors on Regret Emotion Responsibility and Perceived Control

When people realize or imagine that ＂if you have not taken the same choices as before, the result will be better＂, which kind of experience is called a regret emotion. The purpose of this study is to prove the relationship between regret emotions and a sense of responsibility and control. The results show that the individual＇s sense of responsibility and regret that there is a positive correlation and there is a negative correlation between the control and regret, which is not match the previous part of the study so as to be further explored. At the same time, we found that the regret tendencies in the personality can be explained as some of the regret experiencing in the specific situation. When people realize or imagine that ＂if the choice is not the same as before that things are getting better now＂, they will feel regret.

Minimum Regret Climate Policy with Act-Then-Learn Decision-A New Model Framework under Long-Term Uncertainties

The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On the other hand, the existing min-max regret strategy tends to be dominated by the ＂worst assumption＂ regardless of its probability. This research proposes a new framework by formulating the regret by the Minkowski＇s generalized distance. The authors then apply the formulation to the IAM （integrated assessment model） MARIA. This study focuses on the uncertainties of CCS （carbon capture and storage） costs and the global warming damages. This formulation is then extended to the multi-stage decision frame, known as ATL （act-then-learn） method. The simulation results suggest that the substantial changes in CCS and nuclear deployment strategies depending on the future uncertainty scenarios. The results also suggest that the minimum regret strategy favors the capital accumulation in the early stage.

On Translation Strategies of C-E Translation of The Everlasting Regret from“Three Beauties”Principle

Tang poetry can be described as the treasure of Chinese culture.For a long time,both domestic and foreign scholars have devoted themselves to disseminating the immortal Chinese cultural heritage and have made great contributions to the translation of classical poetry.The Everlasting Regret is one of the excellent narrative poems in Chinese classical poetry.It is highly valued by many translators."Three Beauties" principle are the principles of po­etry translation proposed by Mr.Xu Yuanchong,in his work On Chinese Verse in English Rhyme.On the basis of the"Three Beauties" principle and translation version of Mr.Xu Yuanchong's The Everlasting Regret,this paper analyzes how to achieve the beauty in sense,sound and form in translation,aiming at providing some reference methods for the translation of Chinese classical poetry.

Retailer' Order Problem When Regret Factor is Considered

Traditional expected utility theory suggests that decision-makers are completely rational,but a large number of experiments and empirical studies have shown that decision-makers will be influenced by their perception of psychological and other factors,is bounded rationality when making decisions.This paper will be based on regret theory,considering the influence of retailer’regret factor on their order quantity in a single cycle,and providing corresponding measures which supplier can take to weaken the influence of retail regret.

教学遗憾及其应对策略

教学遗憾是指教师在遵守教学规律的前提下,竭尽所能地开展教学活动后仍发现现实教学与理想教学之间存在差距而引发的一种后悔感,以及渴望进一步优化教学的迫切感。它不等于且不包含教学失误。教学失误是教学科学层面上的一个事实性存在,表明教师的教学存在问题,而教学遗憾则是教师教学艺术层面上的一种心理状态,表明教师在追求卓越教学。教学遗憾若为教师所意识与所重视,便能助力教师的深度发展,促成美好的教学生活,达致教学的卓越境界。其生成的前提是理想教学的无限性,生成的基础是教学过程的开放性,生成的关键是教师发展的蝶化性。教学遗憾虽具有重要价值,但教师不能故意制造遗憾,也不能有意回避遗憾。为更好地发挥教学遗憾的价值,教师应转变教学观念,理性地认识遗憾;释放教学想象,敏锐地发现遗憾;注重教学反思,深入地分析遗憾;善于教学探索,坚守学生立场、把守学习立场、恪守学科立场,持续地转化遗憾。

动量余弦相似度梯度优化图卷积神经网络

传统梯度下降算法仅对历史梯度进行指数加权累加,没有利用梯度的局部变化,造成优化过程越过全局最优解,即使收敛到最优解也会在最优解附近震荡,其训练图卷积神经网络会造成收敛速度慢、测试准确度低。利用相邻两次梯度的余弦相似度,动态调整学习率,提出余弦相似度梯度下降(SimGrad)算法。为进一步提升图卷积神经网络训练的收敛速度和测试准确度,减少震荡,结合动量思想提出动量余弦相似度梯度下降(NSimGrad)算法。通过收敛性分析,证明SimGrad算法、NSimGrad算法都具有O(√T)的遗憾界。在构建的三个非凸函数进行测试,并结合图卷积神经网络在四个数据集上进行实验,结果表明SimGrad算法保证了图卷积神经网络的收敛性,NSimGrad算法进一步提高图卷积神经网络训练的收敛速度和测试准确度,SimGrad、NSimGrad算法相较于Adam、Nadam具有更好的全局收敛性和优化能力。

矿工安全行为的群体演化和干预策略研究:基于多智能体仿真分析

随着我国多数矿山企业正实现从“系统智能化”向“智能系统化”的跨越,矿工群体逐渐呈现知识化、年轻化的特征。为推进矿工安全行为管理,结合后悔理论构建了包含情绪反应的矿工安全行为决策模型,并制定了考虑矿工风险偏好异质性的互动规则,通过多智能体仿真的方法,探讨了正念和警示两类事前干预策略下矿工群体安全行为的演化路径。结果表明,仅靠处罚这一事后控制手段并不能有效促进矿工选择安全行为;在事前干预策略中,正念策略比警示策略更有利于促进矿工的安全行为,且这两种策略具有协同效应。此外,矿工之间的互动强度会影响安全行为决策,连结的邻居数量越多,邻居更新越快,矿工会越倾向选择不安全行为。最后,在陕西榆林某矿山企业开展了现场实验,实证检验了正念策略和警示策略对矿工安全行为的激励作用。

基于有序加权平均算子和后悔理论的城市洪涝灾害韧性评价

针对城市洪涝灾害韧性评价过程主观性强、未考虑决策者有限理性和后悔规避的心理行为导致评价结果失真的难题,提出基于有序加权平均算子和后悔理论的城市洪涝灾害韧性评价方法。首先,结合韧性城市概念,从抵抗能力、预警能力、适应能力、恢复能力4个维度构建指标体系,利用有序加权平均算子将专家极端决策值分布到权重较低位置,通过组合权重的形式求得指标权重,弱化主观偏好极端评价值对权重的影响;然后,考虑专家决策时后悔心理行为特征,构建效用值矩阵、后悔-欣喜值矩阵和感知效用矩阵,得出城市洪涝灾害韧性评价值;最后,将其运用在河南省洪涝灾害韧性评价中,并将计算结果与其他评价方法得出的结果对比分析。结果表明:4种方法评价结果基本一致,均认为河南省洪涝灾害韧性等级为Ⅲ级,提出的方法评价结果精度更高、更贴近实际情况。此外,各地级市韧性等级差异较大,分布不均,整体呈现西南部城市韧性等级高于东北部城市的特征。

基于多异构属性和不完全权重信息的案例检索方法

针对多异构属性和不完全权重信息的案例检索问题,提出了一种基于后悔理论的案例检索方法。通过定义基于属性相似度和后悔理论(RT)的感知效用函数,并基于线性规划技术的多维偏好分析(LINMAP),构建了确定属性权重的数学规划模型。在此基础上,计算感知效用,并确定一组类似的历史案例,计算相似历史案例的综合效用,得到相似历史案例的排序,从而获得最适合的历史案例。最后,以瓦斯爆炸案例验证该方法的可行性与有效性。结果表明:该方法可以在计算案例相似性和综合效用时提供更客观、准确的结果。

考虑鲁棒成本与绝对后悔的最短路径问题研究

为克服鲁棒偏差方法在处理区间路网时所求鲁棒最短路径的保守性问题,通过分析鲁棒成本的定义以及鲁棒最短路径过于保守的原因,结合算例分析提出了绝对后悔值的概念,并以鲁棒成本和绝对后悔值为目标函数建立了区间路网的多目标最短路径模型;根据最短路径模型的特点设计了分离路径决策变量与连续变量的Benders分解算法,同时基于传统有效路径的判断依据重新定义了符合该最短路径模型的有效路径,并在分解后的主问题模型中引入了有效路径约束以加快算法收敛速度;利用MATLAB生成了一个包含29个节点、70条双向通行路段的区间路网对模型与算法进行仿真测试。结果表明:考虑鲁棒成本和绝对后悔值的最短路径模型能在区间路网中找到不保守,且同时兼具鲁棒性的最短路径,能够有效克服鲁棒偏差方法的缺陷。

考虑策略型消费者后悔行为的易逝品零售商最优库存策略

易逝品零售商降价销售时,策略型消费者往往会经历高价后悔和缺货后悔,这两种后悔行为均会降低他们的购买效用,从而影响零售商库存决策和利润。因此,本文分别研究了价格外生和内生两种情形下高价后悔和缺货后悔对策略型消费者行为以及零售商库存决策和利润的影响。研究表明,对于高利润产品,零售商应实施瞄准短视型消费者(target myopic consumers,TMC)的策略。相反,对于低利润产品,零售商应实施瞄准短视和策略型消费者(target both myopic and strategic consumers,TBC)的策略。此外,随着高价(缺货)后悔水平的增加,策略型消费者原来认为是低(高)利润的产品,现在可能认为是高(低)利润产品,因此零售商最优策略可能会相应地改变。其次,对于低利润产品,当高价(缺货)后悔显著时,后悔行为对零售商产生负(正)影响,且高价后悔和缺货后悔呈现相反的作用;对于高利润产品,后悔行为不对零售商造成影响。再次,对于低利润产品,高价后悔加剧了(缺货后悔缓解了)策略型消费者行为的负影响;对于高利润产品,后悔行为不影响策略型消费者行为的负影响。最后,当零售商拥有全价决策权时,零售商总是能够利用决策全价的优势来消除高价后悔的负影响或发挥缺货后悔的正影响。

癌症病人决策后悔研究进展

对癌症病人决策后悔概念、发生现状、不良结局、影响因素、评估工具、干预措施进行综述,旨在为癌症病人决策后悔的管理及进一步研究提供参考。