The impact of anti-corruption measures and risk effects on equity incentives and financial misreporting in China

This study examines the effects of anti-corruption and equity incentive risk on financial misreporting in the context of China’s unique corporate ownership structure and governance regime.Using a sample comprising 2,708 cases of financial restatement over the 2007-2017 period.Our key findings suggest that managers’shareholdings are significantly and positively associated with their firms’financial misreporting,and certain equity risk factors dramatically alter Chinese corporate governance.Furthermore,managers’motivation to misreport is significantly more pronounced in non-state owned enterprises(nonSOEs),suggesting that equity incentive risk effects mitigate the"absence of ownership"problem believed to affect SOEs.Managers in highly competitive industries and firms with low institutional ownership are found to be highly motivated to misreport performance.

The Mathematical Analysis on the Risk Management Effect of Crop Insurance Plan

As a variant index, variation has an inherent shortcoming that it can only reflect the static fluctuation of the crop. This paper makes complementary analysis about it on the basis of the comment on Miranda＇s approach of β index and goes on to analyze the β index approach under the condition of three kinds of crop insurance plans, β index approach has the advantage that it can dynamically reflect the risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan. At the same insurance level, the smaller the β index is, the better the corresponding risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan is; And vice versa.

Risk Evaluation in Blood Donation Using Failure Mode and Effective Analysis

The recognition and management of risk in donation process and blood product is critical to ensure donor and patient safety. To achieve this goal, the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a convenient method;moreover it was used to prevent the occurrence of adverse events and look at what could go strong at each step. This study aimed to utilize FMEA in central blood bank in Khartoum to evaluate the potential risk and adverse event that may occur during the donation process. According to the severity, occurrence and the detection of each failure mode, the risk priority number (RPN) was calculated to determine which of the failures should take priority to find a solution and applying corrective action to reduce the failure risk. The statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 11 was used as descriptive and analytical statistics tool. The FMEA technique provides a systematic method for finding vulnerabilities in a process before they result in an error, and in this study a satisfactory outcome was reached.

Effects of a Community-Based Intervention on the Lifestyle and Health of People at Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Benin

Introduction: Worldwide, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing at an epidemic rate. The objective of this study was to measure the effects on lifestyle intervention in subjects at risk of T2D in a West African country. Methods: This study involved Beninese adults at risk of T2D randomly selected from 2 groups of villages: control villages and villages exposed to nutrition education, cooking demonstrations and physical activity sessions. Anthropometric, clinical, and biological measurements were taken in both groups at the beginning and end of the intervention, which lasted 12 months. The paired sample t-test was used to assess the effect of the intervention on the lifestyle of people at risk of T2D. Results: After 12 months of exposure to nutrition education, cooking demonstrations and physical activity sessions in the intervention villages, the mean body mass index, waist circumference, body fat percentage, blood glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol and amount of alcohol consumed per week had significantly decreased. Conversely, the mean intensity of physical activity and food consumption score had significantly increased. In the control group, 5.6% of the people at risk developed to diabetes. The relative risk was RR = 0.20 [0.14 - 0.56]. Conclusion: The intervention significantly improved metabolic indicators, intensity of leisure activity and dietary score. We suggest larger studies to better assess the effect of community-based interventions on the lifestyle and health of people at risk of T2D in Africa.

Measurement of Radon Concentration and Estimation of Cancer Risk in Twenty-Four Model Houses in the Town of Koudougou

The objective of our study is to evaluate the concentration of radon (86Rn) inside houses in the town of Koudougou in order to estimate its impact on the health of the population. Indeed, when uranium-rich minerals are found near the surface of the ground, radon concentrations can reach tens of becquerels per cubic meter in enclosed spaces. Given the nature of the geological base of Burkina Faso, this situation is quite probable and certain places that are sometimes poorly ventilated (house, school, office, etc.) can have radon levels high enough to constitute a health problem for occupants. Thus, twenty-four (24) sample houses were identified. In each house, the Corentium digital detector was between 0.8 m and 2 m for at least one week in a place where the occupants estimate that they spend more time of time and measure the concentration of radon in the long term and short term. The recorded data allowed us to determine the Absorbed Dose and the Annual Effective Dose of radon gas for each house in order to estimate the Risk of Cancer and the probable Number of Cases of Lung Cancer per million inhabitants. Thus, the results indicate that the long-term radon concentration varies between 6 Bq/m3 and 285 Bq/m3 respectively in houses 11 and 4 compared to 1 Bq/m3 to 208 Bq/m3 in the short term in the same houses. Also, in the long term, in control houses 1, 3 and 4, the radon level is above the recommended threshold interval. For the short term, these are houses 1, 3, 4 and 17 respectively with 110 Bq/m3, 142 Bq/m3, 208 Bq/m3 and 105 Bq/m3. As for the long-term and short-term effective doses, only houses 1, 3, 4, 17 and 24 have values between 3 - 10 Sv/year. The estimation of the relative risk of lung cancer gives values relatively close to unity and between 1.006 and 1.142 with an average of 1.035 and that of the Number of Lung Cancer Cases per million inhabitants gives values between 8 and 166 with an average of 42. Thus, we can conclude that with the exception of houses 1, 3, 4 and 17, the radon concentrations are relatively low in the twenty-four control houses in the city of Koudougou. The lifestyle of the populations can well explain this situation when we know that people are in the habit of always leaving doors and windows open, especially when they are not sleeping. We can therefore say that the risk of population exposure to radon gas is relatively low in the town of Koudougou.

Gross Alpha and Beta Activities and Related Lifetime Risks Assessment Due to Ingestion of Drinking Water from Different Sources in the District of Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire

Drinking good quality water is essential for better health. It is therefore essential to assess the radiological quality of all water consumed in the District of Abidjan in order to prevent related hazards. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the risk of cancer due to the ingestion of alpha and beta emitting radionuclides in the different types of water consumed in the region. A total of 63 water samples with 43 tap water samples, 5 bottled mineral water and 15 sachet water samples was collected and taken to GAEC laboratory for analysis. The low background Gas-less Automatic Alpha/Beta counting system (Canberra iMaticTM) was used to determine alpha and beta activity concentrations. Activity concentrations of both gross alpha and gross beta obtained in water sample were respectively lower than the WHO recommended limits of 0.1 Bq/l and 1 Bq/l. Also, the annual effective dose and total equivalent effective dose found in mineral bottled water samples were higher than in other types of water. The assessment of radiological lifetime risk has shown values of cancer risk due to ingestion alpha and beta emitters lower than recommended limit. These results indicate that there is no health hazard associated to consumption of water in the District of Abidjan.

Risk Factors for Cancer Chemotherapy-Induced Hiccups (CIH)

Background: Hiccups are common somatic side effects of medication. Our previous analysis of the clinical risk factors for hiccups identified chemotherapy as a factor related to hiccup risk. Therefore, in the present study, we investigated the risk factors for hiccups associated with chemotherapy. Methods: We included all patients who received cancer chemotherapy and were hospitalized at the Musashino Red Cross Hospital between April 2014 and December 2014. We investigated patient demographics, physical characteristics, and other clinical factors to identify the risk factors for chemotherapy-induced hiccups (CIH). We conducted univariate and multivariable analysis to compare the CIH group and the non-CIH and determined risk factors of CIH. Results: Hiccups were identified in 48 of 292 patients with an incidence rate of 16.4%. Univariate analysis revealed that the male gender, pain, and nausea and vomiting were related to CIH. It also showed that cisplatin, pemetrexed, gemcitabine, etoposide, dexamethasone, and metoclopramide were related to CIH.A correlation which was found with doses of cisplatin, pemetrexed, gemcitabine, and etoposide. Multivariable analysis identified male gender (OR, 72.69;95% CI, 6.95 - 757.64), nausea and vomiting (OR, 52.01;95% CI, 3.93 - 447.13), dexamethasone (OR, 4.55;95% CI, 1.12 - 16.91), cisplatin (OR, 3.84;95% CI, 1.52 - 9.70), and etoposide (OR, 3.72;95% CI, 1.14 - 12.11) as independent risk factors for hiccups. Conclusions: The present study is the first one to report risk factors for the development of CIH. Our results suggest that male gender, having nausea, and the drugs dexamethasone, cisplatin, and etoposide are important risk factors for CIH. These results may assist in elucidation of the underlying mechanisms and guide therapy to reduce hiccup risk.

Arsenic in Drinking Water Toxicological Risk Assessment in the North Region of Burkina Faso

Human health risks assessment were estimated by determining the nature and probability of adverse health effects in the North region’s populations who are now exposed to arsenic from drinking water or will be exposed in the future. Several questions were addressed in this study: what types of health problems may be caused by arsenic from drinking water? What is the chance that people will experience health problems when exposed to different levels of arsenic? What arsenic level are people exposed to and for how long? To answers these questions we have first identified the hazard by evaluating arsenic concentration in thirty-four (34) bore-hole water points among the region based on the assumption of clinical cases related to drinking water. Arsenic concentration ranged from 0 up to 87.8 micrograms per liter. Next we assessed the dose-response of exposure to arsenic. Dose-response relationship describes how the likelihood and severity of adverse health effects are related to the amount and condition of exposure to arsenic. This required us to choose toxicity reference values (TRVs) above which adverse effects may occur for noncarcinogenic and for carcinogenic effects. Exposure factors have been calculated in two scenarios: people from 0 to 14 years old and people from 15 to 70 years. Exposure has been estimated indirectly through consideration of measured concentrations of arsenic in drinking water. This study show that people in the Yatenga, Zondoma and Passore provinces are at very high risk for developing several pathologies such as hyper pigmentation, keratosis, cancer, etc. due by chronic exposure to arsenic in drinking water.

Synoptic Analysis of Epidemiologic Evidence of Brain Cancer Risks from Mobile Communication

In the radio frequency (RF) range concern about long-term health risks from electromagnetic fields (EMF) is enhanced by contradictory results and conclusions from epidemiologic studies. A new approach of a synoptic analysis of all available data from epidemiological studies published since 2001 was performed. This approach provided new insight with regard to a potential link between mobile phone use and brain cancer. Two quite different data pools could be identified with numerous studies from one research group opposing all other studies. However, it could be shown that with the number of exposed cases both data pools exhibit a clear trend of risk estimates (odds ratios) towards the final result, namely a reduced cancer risk of OR = 0.8, though from either side of the zero-risk line. The analysis of potential long-term effects indicated by a dosedependence revealed diverging results with different dose metrics. Overall, the synoptic analysis supports reassuring rather than alarming conclusions on RF EMF health risks from mobile telecommunication.

No detrimental effect of Bt maize pollen containing Cry1Ab/2Aj or Cry1Ac on adult green lacewings Chrysoperla sinica Tjeder

Adult Chrysoperla sinica Tjeder is a common pollen feeder in maize fields. They are thus directly exposed to insecticidal proteins by consumption of genetically engineered maize pollen containing Bacillus thuringiensis(Bt) proteins. Here we assessed the potential effects of Cry1 Ab/2 Aj-or Cry1 Ac-containing Bt maize pollen on the fitness of adult C. sinica via a dietary-exposure assay under laboratory conditions. Survival, pre-oviposition, fecundity and adult dry weight did not differ between adult C. sinica consuming Bt or the corresponding non-Bt maize pollen. The stability of the Cry protein in the food sources and uptake of the Cry protein by adult C. sinica during the feeding experiment were confirmed by ELISA. These results demonstrate that adult C. sinica are not affected by the consumption of Cry1 Ab/2 Aj-or Cry1 Ac-containing maize pollen, suggesting that production of Bt maize expressing cry1 Ab/2 Aj or cry1 Ac genes will pose a negligible risk to adult C. sinica.

干旱形成机制与预测理论方法及其灾害风险特征研究进展与展望

在全球变暖背景下,干旱事件发生的频率和强度不断增大、影响不断加重,干旱发生规律的异常性和机制的复杂性也更为突出,对干旱形成机制、预测理论方法及灾害风险变化规律等方面都提出了新的挑战,也制约了当前干旱预测、预警及其灾害防控能力的提高。近年来,在国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题等多个国家级项目支持下,已在干旱灾害形成机制与预测理论方法及其风险特征方面取得了一系列新成果。通过动力诊断、数值模拟和田间试验等方法,开展了干旱形成的多因子协同作用和多尺度叠加机制、干旱致灾过程的逐阶递进特征,以及干旱灾害风险分布演化的主控因素等方面的研究。对如下几方面的新进展进行了系统总结归纳:(1)厘清了全球变暖背景下青藏高原热力、海温、夏季风、遥相关等多因子对干旱形成的作用机制。(2)发现了降水亏缺时间尺度和农作物不同生长阶段的干旱敏感性规律。(3)揭示了变暖背景下典型区域干旱灾害风险分布及其变异的新特征;构建了干旱灾害风险新概念模型。(4)研发了东亚季风区的季节和次季节干旱集成预测系统。在总结归纳已取得研究成果的基础上,对未来干旱形成机制及其灾害风险科学研究进行了展望,提出了5个重点研究方向:(1)多因子联动及其多尺度叠加效应对干旱形成的影响;(2)系统整合人类活动和决策以及相关反馈的气候模式研究;(3)揭示陆-气耦合和大气环流协同作用对干旱的影响;(4)认识干旱灾害对粮食安全和生态安全影响的关键过程;(5)提高不同气候情景下干旱预估的准确度。

老年营养风险指数对腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎患者治疗效果的评估价值

目的探讨老年营养风险指数(geriatric nutritional risk index,GNRI)对腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎(peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis,PDAP)患者治疗效果的评估价值。方法选取2020年1月—2023年1月于青岛市市立医院就诊的PDAP患者147例作为研究对象,根据患者治疗效果分为治愈组和治疗失败组,比较2组间GNRI分值及临床特征差异,分析GNRI分值与PDAP患者治疗效果的关系。结果治愈组患者102例,治疗失败组患者45例,其中患者死亡25例、拔管10例、转院治疗10例。与治愈组相比,治疗失败组患者GNRI分值、体质量指数、血红蛋白、白蛋白(ALB)降低(t=5.134、7.517、2.336、3.259,P<0.001、<0.001、0.021、0.001),透析龄高于治愈组(t=10.924,P<0.001)。Logistic多因素回归分析显示GNRI分值下降(OR=0.541,95%CI:0.335~0.872,P<0.001)、ALB下降(OR=0.638,95%CI:0.494~0.825,P<0.001)和透析龄延长(OR=1.674,95%CI:1.081~2.591,P<0.001)是PDAP患者治疗失败的独立危险预测因素。ROC曲线分析显示GNRI分值预测PDAP患者治疗失败的ROC曲线下面积为0.735,敏感度为89.55%,特异度为75.43%,约登指数为0.649,最佳预测值为90.53分。结论GNRI分值下降是PDAP患者治疗失败的独立危险预测因素,且对PDAP患者治疗失败具有较高的预测效能,及早纠正患者营养状态可改善患者治疗效果。

Health Risk Assessment of Mobility-Related Air Pollution in Ha Noi, Vietnam

Hanoi is the capital city of Vietnam and the second largest city of the country, just behind Ho Chi Minh City. During the last two decades, Hanoi developed fast and expanded steadily. Since the city acquired large parts of the surrounding provinces in 2008, Hanoi tripled its size and doubled its population. The new development aims to spread the concentrated population and economic activities to alleviate the stress caused by pollution and the decreasing quality of life of the residents. Hanoi has a very fast growing fleet of motor vehicles, at the rate of 12% - 15% annually. The fast transition from bikes to motorcycles and to cars results in a most serious environmental burden in particular on the air quality and human health. This paper overviews the air quality and pollution caused by road traffic in central Hanoi (5 old districts) and the related health outcomes due to particulate matters (PM10 and PM2.5). It uses dose-response functions to quantify the number of extra deaths resulting from traffic-related particulate matters. The results are compared with those of other studies to assess the impacts of air pollution on human health in large, crowded and fast developing cities in Southeast Asia. Assessment of the health risk caused by traffic shows that mobility in Hanoi causes a high health burden. In 2009, mobility caused 3200 extra deaths by traffic related PM10. The result shows that health impacts due to air pollution are by far larger than the number of fatalities due to traffic accidents.

Interprovincial Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on Financial Decentralization in China

By motivating local governments to fght for financial resources, China＇s tax sharing reform has affected the structure of financial decentralization and inflated local financial systems, thus spawning regional financial risks. Based on theoretical analysis and empirical evidence, this paper has arrived at the following findings： due to different policy objectives, central and local governments exhibit different fiscal and financial behaviors; public finance and financial sector have become financing instruments with certain convertibility under local economic growth framework,＂ fiscal decentralization inevitably affects financial decentralization and lays the foundation for provincial fiscal disparities, resulting in a certain spatial effect of interprovincial fiscal variable; fnancial explicit centralization/implicit decentralization and fiscal centralization have fueled local competition for financial resources and resulted in correlation between the spatial effects of provincial financial and fiscal variables, and moreover, their mismatch has also spawned fiscal and financial risks on various fronts. Hence, setting clear boundaries of financial centralization and decentralization and ensuring local government fiscal accountability is the key to the prevention and mitigation of fiscal and financial risks in China.

高校思想政治教育数字化发展的现实效能、风险检视与优化路径

伴随高校教育数字化行动的方兴未艾,如何把握好高校思政教育数字化发展效能与限度的张力,破解数字化发展进程中的风险挑战,已成为高校思想政治教育提质增效的前沿课题。当前,高校思想政治教育数字化发展呈现出持续向好的态势,数字化在要素动态联结、过程场域开拓、环节效果优化等方面赋能了高校思想政治教育创新发展,但也暴露出数字迭代悬浮、数字功能失范、数字关系失度等一系列风险挑战。新发展阶段,我们必须正视高校思想政治教育仍处于“弱数字化”的阶段性现实,在思维革新、机制优化、关系深化上精准发力,聚焦“认知-态度-能力”问题落实好数字化理念,精心打造“生产-传播-反馈”协同的数字化运作机制,建构“寓教于数、与数偕行”的新型教育主客体关系,以更加积极主动的作为不断塑造高校思想政治教育数字化发展的新动能。

企业提高ESG表现能够降低股价崩盘风险吗?

本文以2011—2020年沪深A股上市公司为对象,运用企业ESG表现对股价崩盘风险影响的处理效应模型(Treatment effect model)考察ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究结果表明,企业提高ESG表现会抑制股价崩盘风险,符合“价值假说”。影响机制检验表明,媒体与分析师关注度正向调节ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用,发挥“互补效应”;企业提高ESG表现通过缓解委托代理冲突抑制股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现,ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用仅在非国有企业和所处地区市场化水平较低的企业中成立,且抑制股价崩盘风险是ESG表现提升企业价值的重要路径。上述结论为推动上市公司履行ESG投资责任、完善风险管理机制和实现企业长期价值提供了经验参考。

Risks and Uncertainty Analysis on International Logistics

With the development of globalization, more and more companies are under global operation. What coming with it, on one hand is chance and opportunity; on the other hand is risk and uncertainty. This paper aims to specify the potential and current risks and uncertainty that may be met in international logistics, then seeks some practical methods to dodge and solve them.

Risk of Hearing Loss Injury Caused by Multiple Flash Bangs on a Crowd

A flash bang is a non-lethal explosive device that delivers intensely loud bangs and bright lights to suppress potentially dangerous targets. It is usually used in crowd control, hostage rescue and numerous other missions. We construct a model for assessing quantitatively the risk of hearing loss injury caused by multiple flash bangs. The model provides a computational framework for incorporating the effects of the key factors defining the situation and for testing various sub-models for these factors. The proposed model includes 1) uncertainty in the burst point of flash bang mortar, 2) randomness in the dispersion of multiple submunitions after the flash bang mortar burst, 3) decay of acoustic impulse from a single submunition to an individual subject along the ground surface, 4) the effective combined sound exposure level on an individual subject caused by multiple submunitions at various distances from the subject, and 5) randomness in the spatial distribution of subjects in the crowd. With the mathematical model formulated, we seek to characterize the overall effect of flash bang mortar in the form of an effective injury area. We carry out simulations to study the effects of uncertainty and randomness on the risk of hearing loss injury of the crowd. The proposed framework serves as a starting point for a comprehensive assessment of hearing loss injury risk, taking into consideration all realistic and relevant features of flash bang mortar. It also provides a platform for testing and updating component models.

地缘政治风险与人民币货币锚效应——基于“一带一路”合作国家和地区的实证分析

防范化解地缘政治风险,保持人民币币值的相对稳定,对稳慎推进人民币国际化具有重大意义。通过分析2015年8月至2022年7月“一带一路”合作国家和地区56种货币的汇率月频数据,探究了不同区域的货币锚定人民币的程度,并进一步基于Frankel经典货币锚模型测度了地缘政治风险对人民币货币锚效应的影响。实证结果表明:第一,美元虽仍是大部分地区的锚定货币,但人民币已逐步成长为东欧、东南欧、东南亚和东亚地区钉住的货币锚。第二,地缘政治风险能够显著影响人民币在部分地区的货币锚效应,但是在不同区域和不同贸易开放度的情况下具有显著的异质性。当地缘政治风险上升时,东欧和东南欧地区会更多地锚定人民币以规避汇率风险,而东南亚和东亚地区却会选择降低锚定人民币的权重以寻求汇率稳定;高贸易开放度的国家会更多地锚定人民币,低贸易开放度的国家更可能会减少锚定人民币。研究结果为稳慎推进人民币国际化和精准实施人民币国际化的国别策略提供了参考依据。

数字经济时代区域经济下行风险防范与应对:基于GaR模型的实证分析

防范化解重大经济金融风险是保障我国经济高质量发展的关键,数字经济发展为积极应对经济下行压力、快速转换经济增长动力、统筹兼顾“稳增长”与“防风险”提供了新的契机。基于内生增长理论模型和“在险增长”(GaR)实证研究框架,演绎了数字经济发展的理论机理,使用我国2011-2022年期间226个地级市的季度数据测度了区域经济下行风险,实证考察了数字经济发展对区域经济下行风险的作用效果。结论表明:数字经济发展能够有力防范区域经济下行风险;通过促进产业转型升级、挖掘城市市场潜力、激活乡村消费活力以及增强大众创业动力,数字经济能够发挥资本渗透与技术溢出的间接效应。进一步分析表明,数字经济在缺乏区位优势、经济基础较弱的城市作用效果并不显著,加快数字基础设施建设能够调节风险防范效应的空间异质性。研究结果对研判宏观经济增长不确定性、加快发展新质生产力、推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长具有重要意义。