The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creat...The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.展开更多
为了提高建筑施工安全风险管理的信息化水平,以建筑施工活动及事故风险类型为研究对象,建立施工安全知识图谱。通过知识图谱改进作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)实现安全风险的定量计算,并基于知识图谱进行风险位置识别和不安全因素分析。研...为了提高建筑施工安全风险管理的信息化水平,以建筑施工活动及事故风险类型为研究对象,建立施工安全知识图谱。通过知识图谱改进作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)实现安全风险的定量计算,并基于知识图谱进行风险位置识别和不安全因素分析。研究提出安全风险虚体实化理念,实现了安全风险信息在数字空间实体化表达;基于建筑信息模型(Building Information Modeling, BIM)和知识图谱技术,建立了建筑施工安全风险信息模型(Building Construction Safety Risk Information Model, BCSRIM)。该模型有效避免了传统LEC法中主观因素产生的影响,实现了建筑施工安全风险定量计算、风险位置识别、风险分析及可视化管理。利用Revit二次开发技术,在Microsoft Visual Studio中使用C#语言连接Neo4j图数据库,完成了基于知识图谱的BCSRIM的开发。试验显示,研究提出的BCSRIM对提高施工现场的管理水平具有较高的实用价值。展开更多
文摘The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.
文摘为了提高建筑施工安全风险管理的信息化水平,以建筑施工活动及事故风险类型为研究对象,建立施工安全知识图谱。通过知识图谱改进作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)实现安全风险的定量计算,并基于知识图谱进行风险位置识别和不安全因素分析。研究提出安全风险虚体实化理念,实现了安全风险信息在数字空间实体化表达;基于建筑信息模型(Building Information Modeling, BIM)和知识图谱技术,建立了建筑施工安全风险信息模型(Building Construction Safety Risk Information Model, BCSRIM)。该模型有效避免了传统LEC法中主观因素产生的影响,实现了建筑施工安全风险定量计算、风险位置识别、风险分析及可视化管理。利用Revit二次开发技术,在Microsoft Visual Studio中使用C#语言连接Neo4j图数据库,完成了基于知识图谱的BCSRIM的开发。试验显示,研究提出的BCSRIM对提高施工现场的管理水平具有较高的实用价值。
