A hybrid model for short-term rainstorm forecasting based on a back-propagation neural network and synoptic diagnosis

Rainstorms are one of the most important types of natural disaster in China.In order to enhance the ability to forecast rainstorms in the short term,this paper explores how to combine a back-propagation neural network(BPNN)with synoptic diagnosis for predicting rainstorms,and analyzes the hit rates of rainstorms for the above two methods using the county of Tianquan as a case study.Results showed that the traditional synoptic diagnosis method still has an important referential meaning for most rainstorm types through synoptic typing and statistics of physical quantities based on historical cases,and the threat score(TS)of rainstorms was more than 0.75.However,the accuracy for two rainstorm types influenced by low-level easterly inverted troughs was less than 40%.The BPNN method efficiently forecasted these two rainstorm types;the TS and equitable threat score(ETS)of rainstorms were 0.80 and 0.79,respectively.The TS and ETS of the hybrid model that combined the BPNN and synoptic diagnosis methods exceeded the forecast score of multi-numerical simulations over the Sichuan Basin without exception.This kind of hybrid model enhanced the forecasting accuracy of rainstorms.The findings of this study provide certain reference value for the future development of refined forecast models with local features.

Analysis of Short-term Heavy Precipitations in a Regional Heavy Rainstorm in Shannxi Province

[Objective] This study aimed to analyze the cause of the generation of short-term heavy precipitations in a regional heavy rainstorm in Shannxi Province. [Method] Taking a heavy rainstorm covering most parts of Shaanxi Province in late July 2010 as an example, data of five Doppler weather radars in Shaanxi Province were employed for a detailed analysis of the evolution of the heavy rainstorm pro- cess. [Result] Besides the good large-scale weather background conditions, the de- velopment and evolution of some mesoscale and small-scale weather systems direct- ly led to short-term heavy precipitations during the heavy rainstorm process, involv- ing the intrusion of moderate IS-scale weak cold air and presence of small-scale wind shear, convergence and adverse wind area. In addition, small-scale convection echoes were arranged in lines and formed a ＂train effect＂, which would also con- tribute to the generation of short-term heavy precipitation. [Conclusion] This study provided basic information for more clear and in-depth analysis of the formation mechanism of short-term heavy precipitations.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment

Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.

Physics Guided Deep Learning-Based Model for Short-Term Origin–Destination Demand Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Systems Under Pandemic

Accurate origin–destination(OD)demand prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and management of urban rail transit(URT)systems,particularly during a pandemic.However,this task faces several limitations,including real-time availability,sparsity,and high-dimensionality issues,and the impact of the pandemic.Consequently,this study proposes a unified framework called the physics-guided adaptive graph spatial–temporal attention network(PAG-STAN)for metro OD demand prediction under pandemic conditions.Specifically,PAG-STAN introduces a real-time OD estimation module to estimate real-time complete OD demand matrices.Subsequently,a novel dynamic OD demand matrix compression module is proposed to generate dense real-time OD demand matrices.Thereafter,PAG-STAN leverages various heterogeneous data to learn the evolutionary trend of future OD ridership during the pandemic.Finally,a masked physics-guided loss function(MPG-loss function)incorporates the physical quantity information between the OD demand and inbound flow into the loss function to enhance model interpretability.PAG-STAN demonstrated favorable performance on two real-world metro OD demand datasets under the pandemic and conventional scenarios,highlighting its robustness and sensitivity for metro OD demand prediction.A series of ablation studies were conducted to verify the indispensability of each module in PAG-STAN.

Predictive value of red blood cell distribution width and hematocrit for short-term outcomes and prognosis in colorectal cancer patients undergoing radical surgery

BACKGROUND Previous studies have reported that low hematocrit levels indicate poor survival in patients with ovarian cancer and cervical cancer,the prognostic value of hematocrit for colorectal cancer(CRC)patients has not been determined.The prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width(RDW)for CRC patients was controversial.AIM To investigate the impact of RDW and hematocrit on the short-term outcomes and long-term prognosis of CRC patients who underwent radical surgery.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with CRC and underwent radical CRC resection between January 2011 and January 2020 at a single clinical center were included.The short-term outcomes,overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)were compared among the different groups.Cox analysis was also conducted to identify independent risk factors for OS and DFS.RESULTS There were 4258 CRC patients who underwent radical surgery included in our study.A total of 1573 patients were in the lower RDW group and 2685 patients were in the higher RDW group.There were 2166 and 2092 patients in the higher hematocrit group and lower hematocrit group,respectively.Patients in the higher RDW group had more intraoperative blood loss(P<0.01)and more overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the lower RDW group.Similarly,patients in the lower hematocrit group had more intraoperative blood loss(P=0.012),longer hospital stay(P=0.016)and overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the higher hematocrit group.The higher RDW group had a worse OS and DFS than did the lower RDW group for tumor node metastasis(TNM)stage I(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage II(OS,P=0.004;DFS,P=0.01)than the lower RDW group;the lower hematocrit group had worse OS and DFS for TNM stage II(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage III(OS,P=0.001;DFS,P=0.001)than did the higher hematocrit group.Preoperative hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS[P=0.017,hazard ratio(HR)=1.256,95%confidence interval(CI):1.041-1.515]and DFS(P=0.035,HR=1.194,95%CI:1.013-1.408).CONCLUSION A higher preoperative RDW and lower hematocrit were associated with more postoperative complications.However,only hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS and DFS in CRC patients who underwent radical surgery,while RDW was not.

Short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function

BACKGROUND Hepatectomy is the first choice for treating liver cancer.However,inflammatory factors,released in response to pain stimulation,may suppress perioperative immune function and affect the prognosis of patients undergoing hepatectomies.AIM To determine the short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function.METHODS Clinical data from patients with liver cancer admitted to Suzhou Ninth People’s Hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Thirty-five patients underwent laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer(liver cancer resection group)and 35 patients underwent medical image-guided microwave ablation(liver cancer ablation group).The short-term efficacy,complications,liver function,and immune function indices before and after treatment were compared between the two groups.RESULTS One month after treatment,19 patients experienced complete remission(CR),8 patients experienced partial remission(PR),6 patients experienced stable disease(SD),and 2 patients experienced disease progression(PD)in the liver cancer resection group.In the liver cancer ablation group,21 patients experienced CR,9 patients experienced PR,3 patients experienced SD,and 2 patients experienced PD.No significant differences in efficacy and complications were detected between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups(P>0.05).After treatment,total bilirubin(41.24±7.35 vs 49.18±8.64μmol/L,P<0.001),alanine aminotransferase(30.85±6.23 vs 42.32±7.56 U/L,P<0.001),CD4+(43.95±5.72 vs 35.27±5.56,P<0.001),CD8+(20.38±3.91 vs 22.75±4.62,P<0.001),and CD4+/CD8+(2.16±0.39 vs 1.55±0.32,P<0.001)were significantly different between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups.CONCLUSION The short-term efficacy and safety of microwave ablation and laparoscopic surgery for the treatment of liver cancer are similar,but liver function recovers quickly after microwave ablation,and microwave ablation may enhance immune function.

Transformer-based correction scheme for short-term bus load prediction in holidays

To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduce complexity and capture inherent characteristics more effectively.Gated residual connections are then employed to selectively propagate salient features across layers,while an attention mechanism focuses on identifying prominent patterns in multivariate time-series data.Ultimately,a pre-trained structure is incorporated to reduce computational complexity.Experimental results based on extensive data show that the proposed scheme achieves improved prediction accuracy over comparative algorithms by at least 32.00%consistently across all buses evaluated,and the fitting effect of holiday load curves is outstanding.Meanwhile,the pre-trained structure drastically reduces the training time of the proposed algorithm by more than 65.75%.The proposed scheme can efficiently predict bus load results while enhancing robustness for holiday predictions,making it better adapted to real-world prediction scenarios.

Adaptive Successive POI Recommendation via Trajectory Sequences Processing and Long Short-Term Preference Learning

Point-of-interest(POI)recommendations in location-based social networks(LBSNs)have developed rapidly by incorporating feature information and deep learning methods.However,most studies have failed to accurately reflect different users’preferences,in particular,the short-term preferences of inactive users.To better learn user preferences,in this study,we propose a long-short-term-preference-based adaptive successive POI recommendation(LSTP-ASR)method by combining trajectory sequence processing,long short-term preference learning,and spatiotemporal context.First,the check-in trajectory sequences are adaptively divided into recent and historical sequences according to a dynamic time window.Subsequently,an adaptive filling strategy is used to expand the recent check-in sequences of users with inactive check-in behavior using those of similar active users.We further propose an adaptive learning model to accurately extract long short-term preferences of users to establish an efficient successive POI recommendation system.A spatiotemporal-context-based recurrent neural network and temporal-context-based long short-term memory network are used to model the users’recent and historical checkin trajectory sequences,respectively.Extensive experiments on the Foursquare and Gowalla datasets reveal that the proposed method outperforms several other baseline methods in terms of three evaluation metrics.More specifically,LSTP-ASR outperforms the previously best baseline method(RTPM)with a 17.15%and 20.62%average improvement on the Foursquare and Gowalla datasets in terms of the Fβmetric,respectively.

An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Seasonal Short-Term Load Forecasting for Power Systems Based onModal Decomposition and Feature-FusionMulti-Algorithm Hybrid Neural NetworkModel

To enhance the refinement of load decomposition in power systems and fully leverage seasonal change information to further improve prediction performance,this paper proposes a seasonal short-termload combination prediction model based on modal decomposition and a feature-fusion multi-algorithm hybrid neural network model.Specifically,the characteristics of load components are analyzed for different seasons,and the corresponding models are established.First,the improved complete ensemble empirical modal decomposition with adaptive noise(ICEEMDAN)method is employed to decompose the system load for all four seasons,and the new sequence is obtained through reconstruction based on the refined composite multiscale fuzzy entropy of each decomposition component.Second,the correlation between different decomposition components and different features is measured through the max-relevance and min-redundancy method to filter out the subset of features with strong correlation and low redundancy.Finally,different components of the load in different seasons are predicted separately using a bidirectional long-short-term memory network model based on a Bayesian optimization algorithm,with a prediction resolution of 15 min,and the predicted values are accumulated to obtain the final results.According to the experimental findings,the proposed method can successfully balance prediction accuracy and prediction time while offering a higher level of prediction accuracy than the current prediction methods.The results demonstrate that the proposedmethod can effectively address the load power variation induced by seasonal differences in different regions.

State-of-health estimation for fast-charging lithium-ion batteries based on a short charge curve using graph convolutional and long short-term memory networks

A fast-charging policy is widely employed to alleviate the inconvenience caused by the extended charging time of electric vehicles. However, fast charging exacerbates battery degradation and shortens battery lifespan. In addition, there is still a lack of tailored health estimations for fast-charging batteries;most existing methods are applicable at lower charging rates. This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the health of lithium-ion batteries, which is tailored for multi-stage constant current-constant voltage fast-charging policies. Initially, short charging segments are extracted by monitoring current switches,followed by deriving voltage sequences using interpolation techniques. Subsequently, a graph generation layer is used to transform the voltage sequence into graphical data. Furthermore, the integration of a graph convolution network with a long short-term memory network enables the extraction of information related to inter-node message transmission, capturing the key local and temporal features during the battery degradation process. Finally, this method is confirmed by utilizing aging data from 185 cells and 81 distinct fast-charging policies. The 4-minute charging duration achieves a balance between high accuracy in estimating battery state of health and low data requirements, with mean absolute errors and root mean square errors of 0.34% and 0.66%, respectively.

Development and validation of a circulating tumor DNA-based optimization-prediction model for short-term postoperative recurrence of endometrial cancer

BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC.

Integrating Transformer and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory for Intelligent Breast Cancer Detection from Histopathology Biopsy Images

Breast cancer is a significant threat to the global population,affecting not only women but also a threat to the entire population.With recent advancements in digital pathology,Eosin and hematoxylin images provide enhanced clarity in examiningmicroscopic features of breast tissues based on their staining properties.Early cancer detection facilitates the quickening of the therapeutic process,thereby increasing survival rates.The analysis made by medical professionals,especially pathologists,is time-consuming and challenging,and there arises a need for automated breast cancer detection systems.The upcoming artificial intelligence platforms,especially deep learning models,play an important role in image diagnosis and prediction.Initially,the histopathology biopsy images are taken from standard data sources.Further,the gathered images are given as input to the Multi-Scale Dilated Vision Transformer,where the essential features are acquired.Subsequently,the features are subjected to the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)for classifying the breast cancer disorder.The efficacy of the model is evaluated using divergent metrics.When compared with other methods,the proposed work reveals that it offers impressive results for detection.

Research on the IL-Bagging-DHKELM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Algorithm Based on Error AP Clustering Analysis

With the continuous advancement of China’s“peak carbon dioxide emissions and Carbon Neutrality”process,the proportion of wind power is increasing.In the current research,aiming at the problem that the forecasting model is outdated due to the continuous updating of wind power data,a short-term wind power forecasting algorithm based on Incremental Learning-Bagging Deep Hybrid Kernel Extreme Learning Machine(IL-Bagging-DHKELM)error affinity propagation cluster analysis is proposed.The algorithm effectively combines deep hybrid kernel extreme learning machine(DHKELM)with incremental learning(IL).Firstly,an initial wind power prediction model is trained using the Bagging-DHKELM model.Secondly,Euclidean morphological distance affinity propagation AP clustering algorithm is used to cluster and analyze the prediction error of wind power obtained from the initial training model.Finally,the correlation between wind power prediction errors and Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data is introduced as incremental updates to the initial wind power prediction model.During the incremental learning process,multiple error performance indicators are used to measure the overall model performance,thereby enabling incremental updates of wind power models.Practical examples show the method proposed in this article reduces the root mean square error of the initial model by 1.9 percentage points,indicating that this method can be better adapted to the current scenario of the continuous increase in wind power penetration rate.The accuracy and precision of wind power generation prediction are effectively improved through the method.

Analysis of Short-term Heavy Precipitation in Ulanqab City from 2017 to 2022

Based on the data of hourly precipitation in 11 national stations and 262 regional stations in Ulanqab City from 2017 to 2022,the annual,monthly and daily variations of short-term heavy precipitation in Ulanqab City were statistically analyzed.The results show that the frequency of short-term heavy precipitation in Ulanqab City was high in the south and low in the north,and was closely related to the terrain.Short-term heavy precipitation in Ulanqab City was mainly concentrated from June to August,of which it was the frequentest in July.Short-term heavy precipitation mainly occurred from the afternoon to evening,and was concentrated from 13:00 to 20:00,especially at 19:00.The rainfall in Ulanqab City ranged mainly from 20 to 30 mm,accounting for 74.7%,and the rest accounted for 25.3%.

Short-term train arrival delay prediction:a data-driven approach

Purpose-To optimize train operations,dispatchers currently rely on experience for quick adjustments when delays occur.However,delay predictions often involve imprecise shifts based on known delay times.Real-time and accurate train delay predictions,facilitated by data-driven neural network models,can significantly reduce dispatcher stress and improve adjustment plans.Leveraging current train operation data,these models enable swift and precise predictions,addressing challenges posed by train delays in high-speed rail networks during unforeseen events.Design/methodology/approach-This paper proposes CBLA-net,a neural network architecture for predicting late arrival times.It combines CNN,Bi-LSTM,and attention mechanisms to extract features,handle time series data,and enhance information utilization.Trained on operational data from the Beijing-Tianjin line,it predicts the late arrival time of a target train at the next station using multidimensional input data from the target and preceding trains.Findings-This study evaluates our model’s predictive performance using two data approaches:one considering full data and another focusing only on late arrivals.Results show precise and rapid predictions.Training with full data achieves aMAEof approximately 0.54 minutes and a RMSEof 0.65 minutes,surpassing the model trained solely on delay data(MAE:is about 1.02 min,RMSE:is about 1.52 min).Despite superior overall performance with full data,the model excels at predicting delays exceeding 15 minutes when trained exclusively on late arrivals.For enhanced adaptability to real-world train operations,training with full data is recommended.Originality/value-This paper introduces a novel neural network model,CBLA-net,for predicting train delay times.It innovatively compares and analyzes the model’s performance using both full data and delay data formats.Additionally,the evaluation of the network’s predictive capabilities considers different scenarios,providing a comprehensive demonstration of the model’s predictive performance.

Analysis of Characteristics of a Heavy Rainstorm Process in Nanchang City on July 7,2020

Based on the conventional observation data,dual polarization radar data and NCEP reanalysis data,the large-scale circulation background field,mesoscale conditions and formation causes of a heavy rainstorm in Nanchang on July 7,2020 were studied.It was found that this heavy rainstorm occurred under the weather background of the confrontation between the northward air flow behind the trough and the strong southwest warm and humid air flow to the northwest of the subtropical high.The divergence at the upper level,the shear in the middle and low levels,the southward movement of cold air at the low level,unusually abundant water vapor and high unstable energy caused the heavy rainstorm weather.In this process,under the influence of continuous eastward movement of several strong echo cells,an obvious"train effect"was formed in Nanchang,so that the local rainfall was continuous and intense.Moreover,the average of VIL was about 17 kg/m 2,and its variation characteristics were consistent with the variation trend of 5-min rainfall intensity,which had a certain indicator effect on short-term heavy precipitation.The topography of the Meiling Mountain in the west of Nanchang had a great influence on the formation and precipitation distribution of the heavy rain process.There was a strong rainstorm center near the mountain,and the precipitation was obviously larger than that in the plain area.

Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes among COVID-19 Survivors: A Multi-Center Prospective Observational Study

Background: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic caused massive case fatalities across the world, people have been left with significant physical and mental disabilities, which has had an adverse impact on their quality of life. The objective of this study is to measure the short-term and long-term outcomes among COVID-19 survivors. Methods: This is a six-month-long multicentre prospective observational study, carried out in four specialized hospitals in the capital city Dhaka, where six hundred participants were enrolled by non-probability convenience sampling. Data were collected through three structured interviews, and follow-ups were done during discharge, at 1st month, and 6th month. An analytical study was done on demographic variables, socio-economic conditions, physical findings and outcomes. Data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Results: A total of 600 participants were enrolled. The mean age was 49.83. Many participants belong to the age range of 31 to 40 years. More than two-thirds (72.7%) of participants were male, whereas 27.30% were female. Most patients admitted had mild and moderate COVID-19 symptoms (40% and 58%, respectively). Among short-term COVID complications, it was found that 43.3% of the participants complained of fatigue, 32.6% of depression, 24.7% of sleep disturbance, 19% of anxiety and, 5% memory loss. In long-term COVID complications the number reduced significantly: 5% of the participants complained of fatigue, 10% of depression, 2.7% of sleep disturbance, 7.3% of anxiety and, 2.7% memory loss. The severity of lung parenchymal disease also reduced in long term COVID symptoms. The study found a statistically significant relationship between age groups and CT severity index (χ2 = 9.458, p = 0.032). Most patients (29.2%) in the under-30 age group had a CT Severity Index score of 2 & 3 (29.2%). The important CT Severity Index scores for individuals aged 30 to 60 years were 3 and 4, accounting for 37.7% and 33.3%, respectively. In the over-60 age group, 40.8% of patients showed a CT Severity Index score of 4, showing a range of 51% - 75%. Conclusion: This study found that fatigue, depression, and sleep disturbances are prevalent among COVID-19 survivors;however, these symptoms generally reduce over time. Lung problems improved;however, some patients suffered from persistent effects. Older patients, especially those with pre-existing conditions, suffer from more severe outcomes. These findings underscore the need for ongoing care for COVID-19 survivors.