An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Real-Time Prediction of Urban Traffic Problems Based on Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Mobile Ad Hoc Networks(MANETS)

Traffic in today’s cities is a serious problem that increases travel times,negatively affects the environment,and drains financial resources.This study presents an Artificial Intelligence(AI)augmentedMobile Ad Hoc Networks(MANETs)based real-time prediction paradigm for urban traffic challenges.MANETs are wireless networks that are based on mobile devices and may self-organize.The distributed nature of MANETs and the power of AI approaches are leveraged in this framework to provide reliable and timely traffic congestion forecasts.This study suggests a unique Chaotic Spatial Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Network(CSFPNN)technique to assess real-time data acquired from various sources within theMANETs.The framework uses the proposed approach to learn from the data and create predictionmodels to detect possible traffic problems and their severity in real time.Real-time traffic prediction allows for proactive actions like resource allocation,dynamic route advice,and traffic signal optimization to reduce congestion.The framework supports effective decision-making,decreases travel time,lowers fuel use,and enhances overall urban mobility by giving timely information to pedestrians,drivers,and urban planners.Extensive simulations and real-world datasets are used to test the proposed framework’s prediction accuracy,responsiveness,and scalability.Experimental results show that the suggested framework successfully anticipates urban traffic issues in real-time,enables proactive traffic management,and aids in creating smarter,more sustainable cities.

A two-stage short-term traffic flow prediction method based on AVL and AKNN techniques

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.

Traffic flow prediction based on BILSTM model and data denoising scheme

Accurate prediction of road traffic flow is a significant part in the intelligent transportation systems.Accurate prediction can alleviate traffic congestion,and reduce environmental pollution.For the management department,it can make effective use of road resources.For individuals,it can help people plan their own travel paths,avoid congestion,and save time.Owing to complex factors on the road,such as damage to the detector and disturbances from environment,the measured traffic volume can contain noise.Reducing the influence of noise on traffic flow prediction is a piece of very important work.Therefore,in this paper we propose a combination algorithm of denoising and BILSTM to effectively improve the performance of traffic flow prediction.At the same time,three denoising algorithms are compared to find the best combination mode.In this paper,the wavelet(WL) denoising scheme,the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) denoising scheme,and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) denoising scheme are all introduced to suppress outliers in traffic flow data.In addition,we combine the denoising schemes with bidirectional long short-term memory(BILSTM)network to predict the traffic flow.The data in this paper are cited from performance measurement system(PeMS).We choose three kinds of road data(mainline,off ramp,on ramp) to predict traffic flow.The results for mainline show that data denoising can improve prediction accuracy.Moreover,prediction accuracy of BILSTM+EEMD scheme is the highest in the three methods(BILSTM+WL,BILSTM+EMD,BILSTM+EEMD).The results for off ramp and on ramp show the same performance as the results for mainline.It is indicated that this model is suitable for different road sections and long-term prediction.

Traffic prediction enabled dynamic access points switching for energy saving in dense networks

To meet the ever-increasing traffic demand and enhance the coverage of cellular networks,network densification is one of the crucial paradigms of 5G and beyond mobile networks,which can improve system capacity by deploying a large number of Access Points(APs)in the service area.However,since the energy consumption of APs generally accounts for a substantial part of the communication system,how to deal with the consequent energy issue is a challenging task for a mobile network with densely deployed APs.In this paper,we propose an intelligent AP switching on/off scheme to reduce the system energy consumption with the prerequisite of guaranteeing the quality of service,where the signaling overhead is also taken into consideration to ensure the stability of the network.First,based on historical traffic data,a long short-term memory method is introduced to predict the future traffic distribution,by which we can roughly determine when the AP switching operation should be triggered;second,we present an efficient three-step AP selection strategy to determine which of the APs would be switched on or off;third,an AP switching scheme with a threshold is proposed to adjust the switching frequency so as to improve the stability of the system.Experiment results indicate that our proposed traffic forecasting method performs well in practical scenarios,where the normalized root mean square error is within 10%.Furthermore,the achieved energy-saving is more than 28% on average with a reasonable outage probability and switching frequency for an area served by 40 APs in a commercial mobile network.

Short-time prediction for traffic flow based on wavelet de-noising and LSTM model

Aiming at the problem that some existing traffic flow prediction models are only for a single road segment and the model input data are not pre-processed,a heuristic threshold algorithm is used to de-noise the original traffic flow data after wavelet decomposition.The correlation coefficients of road traffic flow data are calculated and the data compression matrix of road traffic flow is constructed.Data de-noising minimizes the interference of data to the model,while the correlation analysis of road network data realizes the prediction at the road network level.Utilizing the advantages of long short term memory(LSTM)network in time series data processing,the compression matrix is input into the constructed LSTM model for short-term traffic flow prediction.The LSTM-1 and LSTM-2 models were respectively trained by de-noising processed data and original data.Through simulation experiments,different prediction times were set,and the prediction results of the prediction model proposed in this paper were compared with those of other methods.It is found that the accuracy of the LSTM-2 model proposed in this paper increases by 10.278%on average compared with other prediction methods,and the prediction accuracy reaches 95.58%,which proves that the short-term traffic flow prediction method proposed in this paper is efficient.

Network Traffic Prediction Using Radial Kernelized-Tversky Indexes-Based Multilayer Classifier

Accurate cellular network traffic prediction is a crucial task to access Internet services for various devices at any time.With the use of mobile devices,communication services generate numerous data for every moment.Given the increasing dense population of data,traffic learning and prediction are the main components to substantially enhance the effectiveness of demand-aware resource allocation.A novel deep learning technique called radial kernelized LSTM-based connectionist Tversky multilayer deep structure learning(RKLSTM-CTMDSL)model is introduced for traffic prediction with superior accuracy and minimal time consumption.The RKLSTM-CTMDSL model performs attribute selection and classification processes for cellular traffic prediction.In this model,the connectionist Tversky multilayer deep structure learning includes multiple layers for traffic prediction.A large volume of spatial-temporal data are considered as an input-to-input layer.Thereafter,input data are transmitted to hidden layer 1,where a radial kernelized long short-term memory architecture is designed for the relevant attribute selection using activation function results.After obtaining the relevant attributes,the selected attributes are given to the next layer.Tversky index function is used in this layer to compute similarities among the training and testing traffic patterns.Tversky similarity index outcomes are given to the output layer.Similarity value is used as basis to classify data as heavy network or normal traffic.Thus,cellular network traffic prediction is presented with minimal error rate using the RKLSTM-CTMDSL model.Comparative evaluation proved that the RKLSTM-CTMDSL model outperforms conventional methods.

Predicting the Geographic Traffic Distribution in Cellular Networks

Early detection and rapid resolution network congestion can considerably improve network capacity. Consequently, much research has been carried out on predicting traff ic patterns in 3G networks. This paper introduces an access point centric approach that is implemented by two prediction models, the traffic abstraction model and the order-k Markov model. Traffi c predictions are carried out to support the congestion control in the semi-smart antenna systems. The simulation result shows that the cumulative error rate is below 25% even carrying out multi-step-ahead predictions.

TCEVis:Visual analytics of traffic congestion influencing factors based on explainable machine learning

Traffic congestion is becoming increasingly severe as a result of urbanization,which not only impedes people’s ability to travel but also hinders the economic development of cities.Modeling the correlation between congestion and its influencing factors using machine learning methods makes it possible to quickly identify congested road segments.Due to the intrinsic black-box character of machine learning models,it is difficult for experts to trust the decision results of road congestion prediction models and understand the significance of congestion-causing factors.In this paper,we present a model interpretability method to investigate the potential causes of traffic congestion and quantify the importance of various influencing factors using the SHAP method.Due to the multidimensionality of these factors,it can be challenging to visually represent the impact of all factors.In response,we propose TCEVis,an interactive visual analytics system that enables multi-level exploration of road conditions.Through three case studies utilizing actual data,we demonstrate that the TCEVis system offers advantages for assisting traffic managers in analyzing the causes of traffic congestion and elucidating the significance of various influencing factors.

An Innovative Approach for the Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction

Traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation applications,such as traffic control,navigation,path planning,etc.,which are closely related to people's daily life.In the last twenty years,many traffic flow prediction approaches have been proposed.However,some of these approaches use the regression based mechanisms,which cannot achieve accurate short-term traffic flow predication.While,other approaches use the neural network based mechanisms,which cannot work well with limited amount of training data.To this end,a light weight tensor-based traffic flow prediction approach is proposed,which can achieve efficient and accurate short-term traffic flow prediction with continuous traffic flow data in a limited period of time.In the proposed approach,first,a tensor-based traffic flow model is proposed to establish the multi-dimensional relationships for traffic flow values in continuous time intervals.Then,a CANDECOMP/PARAFAC decomposition based algorithm is employed to complete the missing values in the constructed tensor.Finally,the completed tensor can be directly used to achieve efficient and accurate traffic flow prediction.The experiments on the real dataset indicate that the proposed approach outperforms many current approaches on traffic flow prediction with limited amount of traffic flow data.

MCA-TFP Model:A Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Multi-characteristic Analysis

With the urbanization,urban transportation has become a key factor restricting the development of a city.In a big city,it is important to improve the efficiency of urban transportation.The key to realize short-term traffic flow prediction is to learn its complex spatial correlation,temporal correlation and randomness of traffic flow.In this paper,the convolution neural network(CNN)is proposed to deal with spatial correlation among different regions,considering that the large urban areas leads to a relatively deep Network layer.First three gated recurrent unit(GRU)were used to deal with recent time dependence,daily period dependence and weekly period dependence.Considering that each historical period data to forecast the influence degree of the time period is different,three attention mechanism was taken into GRU.Second,a twolayer full connection network was applied to deal with the randomness of short-term flow combined with additional information such as weather data.Besides,the prediction model was established by combining these three modules.Furthermore,in order to verify the influence of spatial correlation on prediction model,an urban functional area identification model was introduced to identify different functional regions.Finally,the proposed model was validated based on the history of New York City taxi order data and reptiles for weather data.The experimental results show that the prediction precision of our model is obviously superior to the mainstream of the existing prediction methods.

船舶拥堵水域通行能力预测技术

针对船舶交通流量大、水域繁忙情况下,通行能力预测难度过高的问题,提出船舶拥堵水域通行能力预测技术。利用船舶坐标位置以及航行速度,确定船舶状态,建立船舶航行队列模型。依据船舶领域模型确定船舶航行对应的椭圆形区域,作为船舶拥堵水域的领域。确定船舶领域内,影响航道容量的相关因素。设置船舶密度、船舶航行速度等水域通行能力影响指标,作为长短时记忆网络的输入。长短时记忆网络通过遗忘门、输入门以及输出门3个门控单元,选择保留或遗忘输入的数据,输出船舶拥堵水域通行能力预测结果。实验结果表明,该技术能够有效预测船舶拥堵水域通行能力,提高航道利用率,保障水域交通安全性。

基于LEO卫星通信的拥塞预测方案

为解决路由算法对卫星通信拥塞情况处理不及时导致卫星系统的吞吐量、时延和丢包率等性能的影响,提出一种基于LEO卫星通信的拥塞预测方案。该方案是利用卫星进行区域判断,识别自己是否处于拥塞区域。处于拥塞区域时可获取相关区域的信息,并分享其位置信息,实现相邻卫星针对拥塞区域信息的实时交互以达到预测拥塞,减少拥塞区域的交通负荷的集中。实验结果表明,利用该方案的路由算法相较于利用之前的方案或策略的路由算法,对整个卫星通信系统在吞吐量、时延和丢包率方面的性能有所提高。

基于图卷积网络的交通流预测方法综述

近年来,基于深度学习的交通流预测方法一直是交通流预测领域的研究热点.与传统卷积神经网络不同,适合处理非欧几里得数据的图卷积网络在空间特征建模方面表现出了强大的能力,而反映路网空间特征的拓扑图、距离图、流量相似图等正是典型的非欧几里得数据.因此,基于图卷积网络及其变体的交通流预测方法成为交通流预测领域的一个研究热点,并取得了很多有吸引力的研究结果.本文对近年来基于图卷积网络的交通流预测模型进行了分类和总结.首先,从图卷积网络的基本定义出发,结合空域图卷积和谱域图卷积的定义详述了图卷积的基本原理.其次,根据预测模型的网络结构特点,将基于图卷积网络的交通流预测模型分为“组合型”和“改进型”两大类,并对其中最具代表性的模型结构进行了详细分析和讨论.此外,对交通流预测领域中常用于模型性能对比的典型数据集进行了综述,并以其中一个真实数据集为例开展仿真测试,展示了4个基于图卷积网络交通流预测模型的预测性能.最后,基于当前的研究现状和发展趋势,对基于图卷积网络的交通流预测方法研究领域中未来的研究热点和难点进行了开放性的讨论和展望.

基于CBAM&ConvLSTM的短时交通拥塞预测

短时交通拥塞预测是智能交通的重点问题,其难点在于时空序列的数据处理和特征提取。卷积长短期记忆网络(Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory, ConvLSTM)适合处理兼具时间和空间相关性的交通数据。而卷积注意力机制(Convolutional Block Attention Module, CBAM)在空间和时间维度引入注意力机制,使模型对于数据的变化更加敏感。文中结合ConvLSTM和CBAM,设计了一种新模型,对短时交通拥塞进行预测。实验基于百度地图实时数据,并与其他主流模型进行了比较。结果表明,该模型在交通数据的适应性方面优于其他模型,为解决交通拥塞的预测问题提供了一种新的思路和方法。

基于5G通信的城市智慧交通拥堵预测分析

当前,城市智慧交通领域研究不断深入,尤其是在5G通信技术不断发展的今天,各种城市智慧交通技术、理念不断出现。从实际出发,当前智慧城市交通拥堵的预测方案多采用单向预测的方式,这种预测模式的效率较低,且预测精度不足,导致预测结果的均方误差较大,预测效果较差。为更好地满足城市智慧交通拥堵预测的需求,文中提出了一种基于5G通信的城市智慧交通拥堵预测模式。该模式在收集交通轨迹数据的基础上,采用多目标的模式,结合坐标设置,建立多目标预测矩阵,构建基于5G通信的城市智慧交通拥堵预测模型,最终得到相应的预测数据,确保预测均方误差可控,使预测结果更加精准、高效。

突发拥堵状况下动态交通流信息预测研究

【目的】建立能够在突发拥堵状况下准确预测交通流的模型,以便更好应对突发交通拥堵情况。【方法】采用混沌理论推导交通流的最小预测周期,并基于此,提出了CDNN预测模型。以APE、MAPE及RMSE为评价指标,结合公路案例对比分析了CDNN、FCM、DLA及NN模型的预测稳定性和精确度,归纳各类预测模型特性及机理。【结果】动态交通流预测周期应不小于80 s;CDNN模型预测性能在突发事件发生时刻最好,无突发事件时次之,突发事件持续时期相对较差;CDNN模型预测性能相较于FCM、DLA及NN模型更优。【结论】CDNN预测模型为突发拥堵状况下的交通流预测提供了新的理论和实践途径,具有更佳的预测性能,凸显了其在应对突发交通情况中的潜在应用价值,对未来的交通管理和规划具有重要的指导意义。

A Light Weight Traffic Volume Prediction Approach Based on Finite Traffic Volume Data

As one of the key technologies of intelligent transportation systems, short-term traffic volume prediction plays an increasingly important role in solving urban traffic problems. In the last decade, many approaches were proposed for the traffic volume prediction from different perspectives. However, most of these approaches are based on a large amount of historical data. When there are only finite collected traffic data, they cannot be well trained, so the prediction accuracy of these approaches will be poor. In this paper, a tensor model is proposed to capture the change patterns of continuous traffic volumes. From collected traffic volume data, the element data are extracted to update the corresponding elements of the tensor model. Then, a tucker decomposition and gradient descent based algorithm is employed to impute the missing elements of the tensor model. After missing element imputation, the tensor model can be directly applied to the short-term traffic volume prediction through searching the corresponding elements of the model and the storage cost of the model is low. Our model is evaluated on real traffic volume data from PeMS dataset, which indicates that our model has higher traffic volume prediction accuracy than other approaches in the situation of finite traffic volume data.

基于深度学习的城市主干道路交通拥堵水平预测

为了解决城市主干道路交通拥堵问题,提出一种基于深度学习的城市主干道路交通拥堵水平预测方法。建立城市主干道路交通网络的Katz相似度矩阵,保存路网的结构特征,获得城市主干道路交通流数据。采用局部敏感判别分析模型,将交通流数据映射到低维流形,获得最优投影矩阵,提取城市主干道路交通特征。结合循环神经网络模型(RNN)和长短时记忆网络模型(LSTM),设计长短时记忆循环网络(RNN-LSTM)模型,解决梯度消失问题,输入城市主干道路交通特征,经过训练输出城市主干道路交通拥堵水平预测结果。实验结果表明,所提方法预测准确度在0.8~0.98,预测所需时间平均为24.74 ms,具有一定的应用价值。

基于复杂城市道路网络的交通拥堵预测模型

随着城市交通的发展,道路网络越来越复杂,交通拥堵越来越严重,准确预测交通拥堵是城市缓堵保畅,提高城市交通管理能力关键技术之一。传统马尔可夫预测模型中的单变量模型只能解决单个时间序列上的交通预测问题,一阶模型仅考虑了相邻时间点数据之间的影响,高阶多变量马尔可夫模型的预测精度不足,难以解决复杂城市道路网络交通拥堵预测的问题。对此,文章提出了一种添加调节项的高阶多变量马尔可夫模型(AAT-HO3M),证明了模型的收敛性,进行了参数估计,并参考城市道路交通运行评价指标体系,对城市拥堵进行预测分析。通过预测试验证明,AAT-HO3M预测精度高于传统高阶多变量马尔可夫模型和改进高阶多变量马尔可夫模型。预测效率优于改进的高阶多变量马尔科夫模型。