基于HEC-HMS水文模型的潼三段流域2021年秋汛洪水模拟

水库精细化调度是确保防洪安全与提高水库综合效益的主要措施。以三门峡库区潼关至三门峡大坝间流域(潼三段流域)无测控区为研究区域,基于土壤、土地利用、降水、径流等数据,构建HEC-HMS水文模型,对2021年潼三段流域整个秋汛洪水过程进行模拟,分析区间各支流洪水叠加过程与径流量变化。采用径流系数法(算术平均法和泰森多边形法)计算潼三段流域径流总量并与实测值对比,验证HEC-HMS水文模型模拟结果的准确性。结果表明:HEC-HMS水文模型在潼三段流域表现出良好的适用性与可靠性,径流总量模拟值与实测值仅相差2.33%,模拟效果显著优于径流系数法。

基于HEC-HMS的黄土高塬沟壑区流域城市化对洪水情势的影响

黄土高塬沟壑区城市化过程中下垫面硬化会影响暴雨水文情势,增大洪水模拟预报难度。为实现对流域城市洪水灾害的预警,基于HEC-HMS水文模型,分别率定砚瓦川流域城市化前后不同时期土地利用条件下的产汇流参数,开展极端暴雨洪水情景设计,揭示流域城市化对不同重现期洪水的水文效应。结果表明:建立的HEC-HMS降雨-径流模型适用于黄土高塬沟壑区洪水预报,其模拟综合合格率为81.25%,平均Nash效率系数为0.82;流域城市化对重现期短的洪水要素变化影响较大,且洪量变化幅度大于洪峰变化幅度,100 a一遇洪水的洪峰和洪量的增幅分别为4.54%和6.40%,5 a一遇洪水的洪峰和洪量的增幅分别为7.06%和9.49%;各子流域设计洪水对流域城市化的响应分布具有空间差异性,以西北部地区响应为最强,其次为南部地区,东北部地区最弱。

HEC-HMS水文模型不同降雨损失方法对比研究

为对比分析HEC-HMS模型三种降雨损失方法在沁河流域的适用性。借助Morris筛选法识别降雨损失方法的关键参数,选用流域内5场雨洪资料进行参数率定和模拟精度分析。结果表明:(1)SCS CN值曲线法、Green-Ampt法、Initial and Uniform法主要敏感性参数分别为CN值、土壤饱和导水率、恒定损失率。(2)选取洪峰流量、洪水总量、峰现时刻误差以及Nash系数对模型模拟精度进行评价,SCS CN值曲线法和Initial and Uniform法模拟结果达到乙等精度,Green-Ampt法模拟结果达到丙等精度。研究成果可为半湿润地区中小流域降雨损失方法的选择提供参考。

Significant risk factors for intensive care unit-acquired weakness:A processing strategy based on repeated machine learning

BACKGROUND Intensive care unit-acquired weakness(ICU-AW)is a common complication that significantly impacts the patient's recovery process,even leading to adverse outcomes.Currently,there is a lack of effective preventive measures.AIM To identify significant risk factors for ICU-AW through iterative machine learning techniques and offer recommendations for its prevention and treatment.METHODS Patients were categorized into ICU-AW and non-ICU-AW groups on the 14th day post-ICU admission.Relevant data from the initial 14 d of ICU stay,such as age,comorbidities,sedative dosage,vasopressor dosage,duration of mechanical ventilation,length of ICU stay,and rehabilitation therapy,were gathered.The relationships between these variables and ICU-AW were examined.Utilizing iterative machine learning techniques,a multilayer perceptron neural network model was developed,and its predictive performance for ICU-AW was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve.RESULTS Within the ICU-AW group,age,duration of mechanical ventilation,lorazepam dosage,adrenaline dosage,and length of ICU stay were significantly higher than in the non-ICU-AW group.Additionally,sepsis,multiple organ dysfunction syndrome,hypoalbuminemia,acute heart failure,respiratory failure,acute kidney injury,anemia,stress-related gastrointestinal bleeding,shock,hypertension,coronary artery disease,malignant tumors,and rehabilitation therapy ratios were significantly higher in the ICU-AW group,demonstrating statistical significance.The most influential factors contributing to ICU-AW were identified as the length of ICU stay(100.0%)and the duration of mechanical ventilation(54.9%).The neural network model predicted ICU-AW with an area under the curve of 0.941,sensitivity of 92.2%,and specificity of 82.7%.CONCLUSION The main factors influencing ICU-AW are the length of ICU stay and the duration of mechanical ventilation.A primary preventive strategy,when feasible,involves minimizing both ICU stay and mechanical ventilation duration.

基于HEC-HMS模型的三峡区间洪水模拟

三峡区间面积在长江上游的流域面积占比5.6%,但在三峡入库洪水组成中,区间形成的洪水占比可达10%以上,可见区间暴雨洪水是水库防洪安全必须考量的重要因素。采用2007—2011年三峡入库流量,上游边界寸滩和武隆站实测流量资料,建立了基于HEC-HMS的三峡区间洪水模拟模型,用于分析区间暴雨洪水与入库洪水的关系。根据入库洪水来源组成分析和资料特点,提出分类调参、分期检验的区间洪水建模方案:对以上游来水为主型洪水,率定汇流参数;对区间降水贡献较大型洪水,率定产流参数;对2012年以后的模拟洪水过程,以三峡水库运行实录发布的洪水过程线为比对基准。结果表明:模型精度良好,率定期和验证期洪峰流量相对误差在±20%以内,峰现时间误差<3 h;经与长江三峡工程运行实录比对,模型适用于模拟2012年后的三峡入库洪水过程。以20160626场次洪水为典型,分析该场区间洪水对入库洪水的峰值贡献率达27.2%,使得峰现时间提前16 h。研究成果可用于三峡区间洪水的影响研究,也可作为区间流域洪水模拟模型建模方案的技术参考。

Equilibrium Strategy of the Pursuit-Evasion Game in Three-Dimensional Space

The pursuit-evasion game models the strategic interaction among players, attracting attention in many realistic scenarios, such as missile guidance, unmanned aerial vehicles, and target defense. Existing studies mainly concentrate on the cooperative pursuit of multiple players in two-dimensional pursuit-evasion games. However, these approaches can hardly be applied to practical situations where players usually move in three-dimensional space with a three-degree-of-freedom control. In this paper,we make the first attempt to investigate the equilibrium strategy of the realistic pursuit-evasion game, in which the pursuer follows a three-degree-of-freedom control, and the evader moves freely. First, we describe the pursuer's three-degree-of-freedom control and the evader's relative coordinate. We then rigorously derive the equilibrium strategy by solving the retrogressive path equation according to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs(HJBI) method, which divides the pursuit-evasion process into the navigation and acceleration phases. Besides, we analyze the maximum allowable speed for the pursuer to capture the evader successfully and provide the strategy with which the evader can escape when the pursuer's speed exceeds the threshold. We further conduct comparison tests with various unilateral deviations to verify that the proposed strategy forms a Nash equilibrium.

基于HEC-HMS的资料匮乏山区洪水模拟研究

以白花河小流域为例,探讨缺资料地区HEC-HMS模型的适用效果。通过流域DEM等下垫面数据获取流域信息,采用SCS-CN曲线法、SCS单位线法、指数衰退法、马斯京根演算法进行流域产汇流计算及河道洪水演算,构建了HEC-HMS降雨径流模型,结合广东省综合单位线法与推理公式法的结果对模型参数进行率定。结果表明,设计洪水计算结果的误差均小于20%且平均相对误差均小于10%;实测洪水模拟的洪峰流量相对误差小于10%,Nash系数为0.90。HEC-HMS模型进行径流模拟效果较好,可适用于研究区山洪预报。

Investigation of HCAR2 antagonists as a potential strategy to modulate bovine leukocytes

Background Dairy cows experiencing ketosis after calving suffer greater disease incidence and are at greater risk of leaving the herd. In vitro administration of beta-hydroxybutyric acid(BHBA;the primary blood ketone) has inhibitory effects on the function of bovine leukocytes. BHBA is a ligand of HCAR2 and the activation of these receptors promotes an anti-inflammatory response which may be related with immunosuppression observed in transition dairy cattle. The objective of this study was to identify and test antagonists for HCAR2 in bovine immune cells cultured with BHBA.Results We observed expression of HCAR2 at the protein level within lymphocytes, monocytes, and granulocytes. The proportion of cells expressing HCAR2 tended to be greater in mid-lactation compared to early lactation cows;the increase was a result of increased proportion of T and B cells expressing HCAR2. Stimulation of HCAR2 with niacin or BHBA promoted Ca^(2+) mobilization in neutrophils and mononuclear cells. Mononuclear cells treated with BHBA had diminished intracellular Ca^(2+) responses when HCAR2 was knocked down by si RNA silencing, indicating Ca^(2+) mobilization was mediated by HCAR2 signaling. Two candidate antagonists for HCAR2, synthesized from niacin(NA-1 and NA-5), were tested;monocytes and neutrophils pre-treated with NA-1 and NA-5 had reduced Ca^(2+) mobilization after incubation with BHBA. Furthermore, NA-5 but not NA-1 prevented BHBA-associated reductions in cyclic AMP.Conclusions We demonstrated that HCAR2 is present on bovine leukocytes and has greater expression later in lactation. We confirmed that BHBA and niacin derived HCAR2 antagonists alter bovine leukocyte activity. Our results demonstrate that both BHBA and niacin affect bovine leukocyte Ca^(2+) mobilization in a HCAR2-dependent manner.

考虑Copula-LM-HMS耦联的台风情境下大坝洪水漫顶风险率计算

气候变化下台风风暴潮出现频次增加,形成的暴雨洪水对水库大坝安全产生极大威胁。由于部分地区实测流量资料缺少,基于雨量资料的随机模型与水文模型耦合模拟洪水过程线的研究亟待发展。针对现有小流域流量资料缺少问题,研究了基于降雨随机模型与水文模型的Copula-LM-HMS耦联模型,来模拟入库洪水并计算水库大坝洪水漫顶风险率。该模型通过Copula函数与拉丁超立方-蒙特卡罗抽样(Latin Hypercube-Monte Carlo Simulation)生成流域多组7日降雨数据,并通过变倍比放大法缩放处理得到相应降雨序列,利用HEC-HMS水文模型模拟洪水过程线并结合调洪演算得到坝前最高水位,同时考虑风浪作用来模拟台风情景下的库水位变化情况,计算大坝洪水漫顶风险率,并分析不同组合条件对洪水漫顶风险率的影响。余姚市四明湖水库实例分析表明,构建的Copula-LM-HMS耦合模型计算得到的拦河坝在未来台风情境下无漫顶风险,自溃坝最小漫顶风险为0.22%,最大漫顶风险达到2.68%;洪水漫顶风险与降雨分布及起调水位有关,同时风浪作用对洪水漫顶风险影响较大。基于耦合模型进行中小流域洪水漫顶风险率计算,不仅能考虑降雨系列之间的相关性、流域地形特征与实际调洪规则,还可延长无流量资料地区水库大坝应对台风情境下洪水风险的预报期,为保证水库大坝应对未来气候变化影响下的运行安全提供参考。

Interpretation of Chinese Expert Consensus on the Diagnosis and Management Strategy of Patients with Statin Intolerance: A guiding file for helping to lipid management for Chinese population

It is well-known that elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C)is a causal risk factor for atheroscler-otic cardiovascular disease(ASCVD),statins are cornerstone drugs for the cause-based treatment of ASCVD,which has created a new era for ASCVD therapy.However,statin intolerance is not clinically uncommon,which there are several issues with confu-sion and misunderstandings.Hence,a file named Chinese Expert Consensus on the Diagnosis and Management Strategy of Pa-tients With Statin Intolerance,like a navigator,has recently been published written by a team of experts from the Cardiovascular Metabolic Medicine Professional Committee,Expert Committee of the National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases aiming to en-hance the standardized clinical application of statins and improve the prevention and clinical outcome.In this article,author briefly summarized the key points of above consensus in order to helping to comprehending the content of the consensus sugges-tions.

New Trends in Japan's“Indo-Pacific”Strategy

Introduced by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and inherited and developed by Fumio Kishida,Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy has gradually taken shape.This strategy can be deemed a broad vision,covering a wide range of topics and an extensive network of partners,with a strong trend of pan-securitization.It is a comprehensive inter national st rateg y based on Japan's alliance policy and China containment strategy,following a global,security-oriented approach.Driven by considerations such as maintaining its economic status,realizing its long-cherished dream of becoming a political powerhouse,and containing China,Japan has stepped up its“Indo–Pacific”strategy,which may influence global development,undermine regional maritime security,and impede China's reunification process.Meanwhile,Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy faces the triple challenge of a strategic overdraft,the unstable economic foundations,and the weak external support.These constraints may not suffice to reverse the direction of Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy in the short term but will limit its effectiveness.

The Caching and Pricing Strategy for Information-Centric Networking with Advertisers’Participation

As users’access to the network has evolved into the acquisition of mass contents instead of IP addresses,the IP network architecture based on end-to-end communication cannot meet users’needs.Therefore,the Information-Centric Networking(ICN)came into being.From a technical point of view,ICN is a promising future network architecture.Researching and customizing a reasonable pricing mechanism plays a positive role in promoting the deployment of ICN.The current research on ICN pricing mechanism is focused on paid content.Therefore,we study an ICN pricing model for free content,which uses game theory based on Nash equilibrium to analysis.In this work,advertisers are considered,and an advertiser model is established to describe the economic interaction between advertisers and ICN entities.This solution can formulate the best pricing strategy for all ICN entities and maximize the benefits of each entity.Our extensive analysis and numerical results show that the proposed pricing framework is significantly better than existing solutions when it comes to free content.

Making the Complicated Simple:A Minimizing Carrier Strategy on Innovative Nanopesticides

The flourishing progress in nanotechnology offers boundless opportunities for agriculture,particularly in the realm of nanopesticides research and development.However,concerns have been raised regarding the human and environmental safety issues stemming from the unrestrained use of non-therapeutic nanomaterials in nanopesticides.It is also important to consider whether the current development strategy of nanopesticides based on nanocarriers can strike a balance between investment and return,and if the complex material composition genuinely improves the efficiency,safety,and circularity of nanopesticides.Herein,we introduced the concept of nanopesticides with minimizing carriers(NMC)prepared through prodrug design and molecular self-assembly emerging as practical tools to address the current limitations,and compared it with nanopesticides employing non-therapeutic nanomaterials as carriers(NNC).We further summarized the current development strategy of NMC and examined potential challenges in its preparation,performance,and production.Overall,we asserted that the development of NMC systems can serve as the innovative driving force catalyzing a green and efficient revolution in nanopesticides,offering a way out of the current predicament.

Machine learning solution for regional landslide susceptibility based on fault zone division strategy

Landslide susceptibility assessment is an essential tool for disaster prevention and management. In areas with multiple fault zones, the impact of fault zone on slope stability cannot be disregarded. This study performed qualitative analysis of fault zones and proposed a zoning method to assess the landslide susceptibility in Chengkou County, Chongqing Municipality, China. The region within a distance of 1 km from the faults was designated as sub-zone A, while the remaining area was labeled as sub-zone B. To accomplish the assessment, a dataset comprising 388 historical landslides and 388 non-landslide points was used to train the random forest model. 10-fold cross-validation was utilized to select the training and testing datasets for the model. The results of the models were analyzed and discussed, with a focus on model performance and prediction uncertainty. By implementing the proposed division strategy based on fault zone, the accuracy, precision, recall, F-score, and AUC of both two sub-zones surpassed those of the whole region. In comparison to the results obtained for the whole region, sub-zone B exhibited an increase in AUC by 6.15%, while sub-zone A demonstrated a corresponding increase of 1.66%. Moreover, the results of 100 random realizations indicated that the division strategy has little effect on the prediction uncertainty. This study introduces a novel approach to enhance the prediction accuracy of the landslide susceptibility mapping model in areas with multiple fault zones.

Enhancing thermodynamic stability of single-crystal Ni-rich cathode material via a synergistic dual-substitution strategy

Nickel(Ni)-rich cathode materials have become promising candidates for the next-generation electrical vehicles due to their high specific capacity.However,the poor thermodynamic stability(including cyclic performance and safety performance or thermal stability)will restrain their wide commercial application.Herein,a single-crystal Ni-rich Li Ni_(0.83)Co_(0.12)Mn_(0.05)O_(2) cathode material is synthesized and modified by a dual-substitution strategy in which the high-valence doping element improves the structural stability by forming strong metal–oxygen binding forces,while the low-valence doping element eliminates high Li^(+)/Ni^(2+)mixing.As a result,this synergistic dual substitution can effectively suppress H2-H3 phase transition and generation of microcracks,thereby ultimately improving the thermodynamic stability of Ni-rich cathode material.Notably,the dual-doped Ni-rich cathode delivers an extremely high capacity retention of 81%after 250 cycles(vs.Li/Li+)in coin-type half cells and 87%after 1000 cycles(vs.graphite/Li^(+))in pouch-type full cells at a high temperature of 55℃.More impressively,the dual-doped sample exhibits excellent thermal stability,which demonstrates a higher thermal runaway temperature and a lower calorific value.The synergetic effects of this dual-substitution strategy pave a new pathway for addressing the critical challenges of Ni-rich cathode at high temperatures,which will significantly advance the high-energy-density and high-safety cathodes to the subsequent commercialization.

MTCR-CR Routing Strategy for Connection-Oriented Routing over Satellite Networks

The high-speed movement of satellites makes it not feasible to directly apply the mature routing scheme on the ground to the satellite network.DT-DVTR in the snapshot-based connectionoriented routing strategy is one of the representative solutions,but it still has room for improvement in terms of routing stability.In this paper,we propose an improved scheme for connection-oriented routing strategy named the Minimal Topology Change Routing based on Collaborative Rules(MTCR-CR).The MTCR-CR uses continuous time static topology snapshots based on satellite status to search for intersatellite link(ISL)construction solutions that meet the minimum number of topology changes to avoid route oscillations.The simulation results in Beidou-3 show that compared with DT-DVTR,MTCR-CR reduces the number of routing changes by about 92%,the number of path changes caused by routing changes is about38%,and the rerouting time is reduced by approximately 47%.At the same time,in order to show our algorithm more comprehensively,the same experimental index test was also carried out on the Globalstar satellite constellation.

Enhancing lead-free photovoltaic performance:Minimizing buried surface voids in tin perovskite films through weakly polar solvent pre-treatment strategy

Buried interfacial voids have always been a notorious phenomenon observed in the fabrication of lead perovskite films. The existence of interfacial voids at the buried interface will capture the carrier, suppress carrier transport efficiencies, and affect the stability of photovoltaic devices. However, the impact of these buried interfacial voids on tin perovskites, a promising avenue for advancing lead-free photovoltaics, has been largely overlooked. Here, we utilize an innovative weakly polar solvent pretreatment strategy(WPSPS) to mitigate buried interfacial voids of tin perovskites. Our investigation reveals the presence of numerous voids in tin perovskites during annealing, attributed to trapped dimethyl sulfoxide(DMSO) used in film formation. The WPSPS method facilitates accelerated DMSO evaporation, effectively reducing residual DMSO. Interestingly, the WPSPS shifts the energy level of PEDOT:PSS downward, making it more aligned with the perovskite. This alignment enhances the efficiency of charge carrier transport. As the result, tin perovskite film quality is significantly improved,achieving a maximum power conversion efficiency approaching 12% with only an 8.3% efficiency loss after 1700 h of stability tests, which compares well with the state-of-the-art stability of tin-based perovskite solar cells.

Impacts of bus holding strategy on the performance and pollutant emissions of a two-lane mixed traffic system

This paper investigates the impacts of a bus holding strategy on the mutual interference between buses and passenger cars in a non-dedicated bus route,as well as the impacts on the characteristics of pollutant emissions of passenger cars.The dynamic behaviors of these two types of vehicles are described using cellular automata(CA)models under open boundary conditions.Numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the phase diagrams of the bus system and the trajectories of buses and passenger cars before and after the implementation of the bus holding strategy under different probabilities of passenger cars entering a two-lane mixed traffic system.Then,we analyze the flow rate,satisfaction rate,and pollutant emission rates of passenger cars together with the performance of a mixed traffic system.The results show that the bus holding strategy can effectively alleviate bus bunching,whereas it has no significant impact on the flow rate and pollutant emission rates of passenger cars;the flow rate,satisfaction rate,and pollutant emission rates of passenger cars for either the traffic system or for each lane are influenced by the bus departure interval and the number of passengers arriving at bus stops.

Evolution of United States Technology Alliance Strategy and Reshaping of International Strategic Landscape

Building a technology alliance is the main strategy for the United States to maintain its scientific and technological hegemony under its technopolitical strategic framework.After Joe Biden took office,the United States implemented“small yard with high fences”strategy for scientific and technological competition,as the first step toward building a technology alliance.The main goal is to restrict the flow of strategic emerging technologies and factors of innovation to rival countries.

Artificial Intelligence in US Military Strategy:Trends and Implications

Since 2017,the United States has been advancing the utilization of artificial intelligence(AI)in its military strategy.Academic studies of AI’s impact on national security generally fall into four groups.The first group deals with the specific areas where AI empowers the military,such as intelligence acquisition and analysis,new weapon manufacturing,command and control decision-making and implementation,and man-machine relationship.