Evaluation of Natural Gas Supply Security in Turkey with Future Projection

Natural gas is one of the key energy resources for Turkey due to fact that 32% of annual primary energy supply and 45% of annual electricity production is obtained from natural gas with also common usage of residential and industrial zones. In this study, the supply security of natural gas was taken into consideration with strategic criteria of energy policy with the SWOT （strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats） analysis and the future projection for Turkey. It has been concluded on geopolitics criteria, domestic production and research for resources must be stimulated as high as possible and participation to abroad resources must be implemented.

Analysis of technology pathway of China's liquid fuel production with consideration of energy supply security and carbon price

Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.

Study on the Technology of Supplying Water Safely by Long-Distance Pipeline

The extensively built long-distance water transmission pipelines have become the main water sources for urban areas. To ensure the reliability and safety of the water supply, from the viewpoint of overall management, it would be necessary to establish a system of information management for the pipeline. The monitoring, calculating and analyzing functions of the system serve to give controlling instructions and safe operating rules to the automatic equipment and technician, making sure the resistance coefficient distribution along the pipeline is reasonable; the hydraulic state transition is smooth when operating conditions change or water supply accidents occur, avoiding the damage of water hammer. This paper covered the composition structures of the information management system of long-distance water transmission pipelines and the functions of the subsystems, and finally elaborated on the approaches and steps of building a mathematics model for the analysis of dynamic hydraulic status.

Uplifting the complexity of analysis for probabilistic security of electricity supply assessments using artificial neural networks

The energy sector faces rapid decarbonisation and decision-makers demand reliable assessments of the security of electricity supply. For this, detailed simulation models with a high temporal and technological resolution are required. When confronted with increasing weather-dependent renewable energy generation, probabilistic simulation models have proven. The significant computational costs of calculating a scenario, however, limit the complexity of further analysis. Advances in code optimization as well as the use of computing clusters still lead to runtimes of up to eight hours per scenario. However ongoing research highlights that tailor-made approximations are potentially the key factor in further reducing computing time. Consequently, current research aims to provide a method for the rapid prediction of widely varying scenarios. In this work artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained and compared to approximate the system behavior of the probabilistic simulation model. To do so, information needs to be sampled from the probabilistic simulation in an efficient way. Because only a limited space in the whole design space of the 16 independent variables is of interest, a classification is developed. Finally it required only around 35 min to create the regression models, including sampling the design space, simulating the training data and training the ANNs. The resulting ANNs are able to predict all scenarios within the validity range of the regression model with a coefficient of determination of over 0.9998 for independent test data (1.051.200 data points). They need only a few milliseconds to predict one scenario, enabling in-depth analysis in a brief period of time.

Effect of climate change on drinking water supply in Santiago de Chile

Climate change is likely to increase the occurrence of floods and flashfloods that affect Santiago de Chile＇s drinking water supply system throughout the 21st century. A relationship between flashfloods in the Maipo River--Santiago＇s main raw water source, drainage area in the Maipo Alto Sub Basin and precipitation 48 hours previous to the event was found. Despite having legal guide- lines to guarantee continuity and stability in water supply, Chilean law does not specify the maximum admissible magnitude of an event. A 12% drop of average monthly flow at Maipo en E1 Manzano Station was estimated for the 2035-2065 period due to cli- mate change, meaning water suppliers would not be able to meet 90% monthly water supply security, required by Chilean law. Water suppliers would need to increase their current allotted quota of the Maipo River, from 24.5% to a percentage between 26% and 30% to comply. If the 0 ~C isotherm keeps increasing its elevation through the 21st century, more intense floods could occur because of additional drainage area granted by the elevation of the snow line, even if precipitation does not suffer a significant change. In order to withstand a five day turbidity event, 2 m3/s of groundwater, or any non river source, should be temporarily in- coroorated to the emergency dfinkin~ water production.

Energy Security in the European Union

According to the European Commission, the three challenges that Europe must face related to energy are sustainability, security of supply and reaching an effective competitiveness in the internal energy market. To meet these three challenges, the Commission deems necessary to implement a common energy policy. To this end, it proposed an action plan based on the effective creation of an internal energy market, the solidarity between Member States and security of supply for oil, gas and electricity, Therefore energy security is one of the main concerns, and so one of the priorities, of the new European energy policy proposed by the Commission. This paper tries to show that even though energy has been on the basis of what we call today European Union, it has been extremely complicated to get a common energy policy. Bearing this in mind, energy security has been one of the main areas of consensus that has led EU to the mentioned Commission proposal, and we can see now the first steps of the so much wanted common energy policy.

Research on the security of China's oil resources supply based on the objective weight method

With the rapid development of China's economy,external dependence on petroleum resources continues to increase,and their security has become an important part of national security.To evaluate the security of China's petroleum resource supply in a scientific and objective manner,this study establishes a corresponding petroleum life-cycle evaluation index system,based on the theory and method of the whole life-cycle security evaluation of mineral resources,and conducts further independence and grey correlation analysis on the indexes for the purpose of evaluating the petroleum risk situation in China,based on relevant public data from the past 10 years.The results show that the overall trend of China's oil risk has a“U”-shaped characteristic of first decreasing and then increasing.Furthermore,the analysis finds that China's mineral resources have been greatly influenced by the domestic production situation and international trade.These results suggest that the security of petroleum supply can be improved by safeguarding international trade in petroleum resources,strengthening the strategic reserves of domestic petroleum resources,and developing new alternative clean energy sources to improve the resilience of petroleum supply security.This study's research methodology is more logical and systematic than traditional methods,and the analysis of the factors is comprehensive and of high application value,providing implications for the establishment of a big data analysis and evaluation index system for oil resource security.

Validation of Full-Converter Wind Power Plant Generic Model Based on Actual Fault Ride-Through Measurements

Modeling and validation of full power converter wind turbine models with field measurement data are rarely reported in papers. In this paper an aggregated generic dynamic model of the wind farm consisting of full power converter wind turbines is composed and the model validation based on actual field measurements is performed. The paper is based on the measurements obtained from the real short circuit test applied to connection point of observed wind farm. The presented approach for validating the composed model and fault ride-through （FRT） capability for the whole wind park is unique in overall practice and its significance and importance is described and analyzed.

A diagnostic method for distribution networks based on power supply safety standards

In order to overcome the shortages of diagnostic method for distribution networks considering the reliability assessment,this paper proposed a method based on power supply safety standards.It profoundly analyzed the security standard of supply for urban power networks,and established quantitative indicators of load groups based on different fault conditions.Then a method suitable for diagnostic evaluation of urban distribution networks in China was given.In the method,“N-1”calibration analysis of the distribution network was conducted.Then the results are compared with quantitative indicators of load groups on different conditions deriving the diagnostic conclusions and the standard revision is discussed.The feasibility and accuracy of the method is finally verified in the case study.

Steady-state security in distribution networks with large wind farms

Aging network assets,forced and unforced outages,and the way the networks are operated in a deregulated market are of significant concerns to integrate large wind farms in a distribution network.In many cases,the constrained network capacity is a potential barrier to the large-scale integration of wind power.This paper probabilistically assesses the steady-state security in a distribution network in the presence of large wind farms.The approach incorporates active distribution network operating conditions,including intermittent power outputs,random outages,demand fluctuations,and dynamic interactions and exchanges,and then assesses the steady state security using Monte Carlo simulation.A case study is performed by integrating large wind farms into a distribution network.The results suggest that intermittent outputs of large wind farms in a distribution network can impact the steady-state security considerably.However,the level of impact of wind farms does not necessarily correlate with the installed capacity of them.

Analysis of China's Renewable Energy Development under the Current Economic and Technical Circumstances

At present, the development of renewable energy relies mainly on government support. The government invests in a considerable number of projects to improve public welfare and to assist in poverty relief If China is to replace fossil fuels on a large scale with renewable energy sources, the production costs and prices of renewable energy must be brought down. All countries are facing the challenge of moving to a more secure and low-carbon energy system without weakening economic and social development. In this regard, China is facing an even greater challenge in terms of economic cost, as cheap coal remains the main energy form. Technical innovation and industrialization in the area of renewable energy is an important means of lowering cost. China is in for a period of high-speed development of its economy and the rising demand for energy is irreversible. If the technical progress and development speed of renewable energy lags behind the growth in demand, it will be difficult to realize the improvement of its energy structure.

Scarcity events analysis in adequacy studies using CN2 rule mining

Dealing with scarcity events is nowadays gaining relevance in electricity market studies, as traditionally predictable generation and consumption patterns are fading. Policymakers and system planners use therefore adequacy studies to a) understand if the current market design will attract sufficient generation capacity to meet electricity demand in the future and b) to comprehend what drives system inadequacy or resource scarcity when future scenarios lack adequate capacity. This work addressed the latter and showcases a first in-its-kind rulebased methodology that filters scarcity events from a large set of electricity market simulations. In this proof-of-concept, a rule-mining algorithm is applied to outputs from ENTSO-E’s Pan-European electricity market model, which is run for 700 model scenarios, each covering 8760 time steps. The developed methodology shows how to unveil potential reasons behind scarcity events in an automated, interpretable, and scalable manner.