Supply-Side Structural Reforms and China's Potential Economic Growth Rate

This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.

Research on the Supply-Side Reform Promotes Economic Growth Model in Xi’an

Xi’an is situated at west China, the industrial structure the restriction function which grows to the economy is not balanced more obvious, uni？ es the Xi’an actual situation, speeds up the supplies side constitutive property reform, the promotion industrial structure optimized promotion appears especially importantly. Firstly, this paper analyzes the present situation and development trend of supply-side reform at home and abroad. Based on the situation of Xi’an, the author analyzes ？ ve production-side reforms, such as “de-production,” “de-stocking,” “deleveraging”, “cost reduction” The author puts forward the main problems of Xi’an’s supply-side reform to promote economic growth. Finally, it puts forward the path choice of supply-side reform to promote economic growth in Xi’an. Adhere to reform and expand and demand side, supply side in xian accurate docking, supply and demand in xi ‘an supply side reform should constantly improve production quality, give full play to the market on the supply side of the reform main body role and foster the subject of the new.

China＇s Economic Slowdown under Supply-Side Perspective

This paper creates an analytical framework for ongoing China＇s economic slowdown and reveals the major.factors affecting potential growth rate. First, proceeding from the factors that led to a decline in China ＇s potential growth rate, this paper demonstrates that the slowdown since 2012 is not caused by demand-side shock.s＇ but is a natural result of the demographic transition and the change of economic development stage that stemmed from supply-side factors. It is therefore suggested that the demand- side perspective for cyclical analysis must be abandoned and the supply-side perspective for growth analysis ought to be followed Secondly, this paper argues that it is theoretically unjounded and empirically unconvincing for existing literature based on the growth perspective to simply apply the statistical pattern of ＂regression towards the mean＂ to forecast China ＇s growth outlook and thus arrive at pessimistic conclusions. On this basis, this paper identifies a host of initiatives that can significantly increase potential growth rates and proposes policy recommendations for deriving reform dividends foom supply-side structural reform.

On Supply-side Reform

After the 2008 financial crisis, reality prompts people to reflect on the traditional theoretical frameworks of economics and the practical experiences based on macro-control and "demand management." The new reality also stimulates innovative efforts to "connect theory with practice" and leads academia and decision-makers to pay unprecedented attention to "supply management" regulation and structural supply-side reforms. Based on the theoretical innovation of the "new supply-side economics," this paper systematically discusses China's supply-side reform and its related issues from four levels—the innovation of closely connecting theory with practice, the problem-oriented innovation of re-making the momentum system under the new normal, the innovation for overall and long-term goals based on comprehensive planning and systematic engineering, and the innovation of institutional supply centered on reforms and modernization.

Research on the Impact of Innovation Drivers on the Quality of Economic Growth in China

The quality of economic growth is a prominent issue in the process of economic growth worldwide.This paper builds relevant econometric models and uses the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2015 to analyze the impact of innovation drivers on China’s economic growth.The empirical results show that technological innovation and institutional innovation have a significant role in promoting the quality of China’s economic growth,and the effect of institutional innovation is stronger than that of technological innovation.In terms of regions,the innovation driver has the greatest contribution to the quality of economic growth in the eastern region of China,with the western and central parts ranking second and third.However,the role of institutional innovation in the eastern region is prominent,and the role of technological innovation is weak.Only institutional innovation in the central region has a significant role in promoting the quality of economic growth.Only technological innovation in the western region has a positive effect on the quality of economic growth,and the impact is weak.The regional differences in the impact of innovation-driven economic growth are obvious.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of regional sustainable economic growth drivers of China

Intellectual capital(IC)has become a universal performance indicator for the socioeconomic development of countries and regions.Based on a review ofnational intellectualcapital(NIC)and regional intellectualcapital(RIC)evaluation literature,we used the regional intellectualcapitalindicator(RICI)as a model for China’s RIC evaluation to indirectly understand China’s potential economic growth drivers.Specifically,we collected statisticaldata of31 provinces(including municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2016to measure RICI and analyze its dynamic characteristics from temporal and spatial perspectives.In this paper,Delphi analysis was used to construct RICI model,and cluster analysisand exploratory spatial data analysis were used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of RICI in China.The results showedthat RICI,which represents China’s overall economic growth drivers,increases annuallyand is consistent with economic developmentlevelduring the study period.Regarding the geo-spatial space,RICI follows the trend of“high in the east and low in the west”,gradually decreasing from eastern to western China.ForRIC structure,the shape of the radar chart of IC structure located in the eastern coastal areas is usually biased towards strong external relational capital,while that in western China is generally biased towards structural capital.For spatial correlation,China’s RICI has dependence on geographical adjacent space and economic space.Our research can provide policy suggestions for the sustainable development of regional economy from an IC perspective.

Exploring the drivers of urban expansion in a medium-class urban agglomeration in India using the remote sensing techniques and geographically weighted models

Rapid urbanization urges the immediate attention of policymakers to ensure sustainable city development.Under-standing the urban growth drivers is essential to address effective strategies for urbanization-related challenges.This work aims to study Raiganj’s urban development and the factors associated with this expansion.This study employed global logistic regression(LR)and geographical weighted logistic regression(GWLR)to explore the role of different factors.The results showed that the role of the central business district(covariate>-1),commercial market(covariate>-3),and police station(covariate>-4)were significant to the development of new built-up areas.In the second period,major roads(covariate>-2)and new infrastructures(covariate>-4)became more relevant,particularly in the eastern and southern areas.GWLR was more accurate in assessing the different fac-tors’impact than LR.The results obtained are essential to understanding urban expansion in India’s medium-class cities,which is critical to effective policies for sustainable urbanization.

新常态下海洋经济新旧动能转换测评与影响因素分析

海洋经济新旧动能转换是坚持新发展理念、深化海洋供给侧结构性改革、推动海洋经济转型升级的重要标志,对实现海洋经济高质量发展有重要意义。基于海洋经济新旧动能转换内涵与机理,从需求侧、供给侧、结构转换动能三个维度构建综合评价指标体系;运用主客观赋权法、TOPSIS模型和核密度估计,对中国2006—2020年海洋经济新旧动能转换进行测算与评价;引入GWR模型探讨中国沿海11个省份各影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明,中国海洋经济新旧动能转换综合指数总体呈现波动上升趋势。其中,结构转换动能提升最为显著,需求侧动能总体呈波动上升态势,供给侧动能转换指数整体发展水平不高,对海洋经济新旧动能转换贡献力度较小;2006—2020年,中国海洋经济新旧动能转换指数差异呈先缩小后扩大继而再缩小的变化过程;陆域经济发展水平、海洋产业结构水平、海洋科技创新水平对海洋经济动能转换的提升起正向作用,各因素影响效应具有空间异质性。

高导热氮化硅陶瓷基板影响因素研究现状

电子电力技术的高度集成化对承载电子元器件的脆性陶瓷基板提出了更高的散热和强度要求。氮化硅陶瓷兼备优异的本征热导率和力学性能,在大功率半导体器件封装领域有广阔的发展前景。然而,目前商业及实验中可实现的氮化硅热导率远低于其本征热导率,如何在保证氮化硅优异力学性能的基础上提高热导率仍然是一个难题。本文概述了高热导氮化硅的发展近况,着重论述氮化硅实际热导率的影响因素和提高方法。同时对比了几种氮化硅烧结工艺的优劣情况,并简要介绍目前主流商业化的氮化硅陶瓷基板成型工艺,最后对氮化硅陶瓷基板发展方向作出展望。

广州市农民增收新形势、新潜力和新动能挖掘研究

该文通过对广州市7个区15个村的农民进行随机问卷调查与访谈,探索广州市农民收入新增长面临的新形势、新问题、新挑战。发现广州市农民在经济新常态、大湾区建设、乡村振兴、人口结构变化背景下面临增速减缓、对外开放扩大、产业融合、老龄化的新形势。政策建议是,通过激发农业农村内部增收富民潜力、促进农村劳动力更高质量更充分就业、优化农民财产性收入、稳步提升制度环境等,进一步挖掘出广州市农民增收的新潜力和新动能。

数字基础设施促进山东新旧动能转换的机制研究

本文旨在研究数字基础设施对山东省新旧动能转换的影响,通过相关理论分析和实证检验发现:(1)数字基础设施促进了山东省新旧动能转换;(2)机制分析检验显示,技术创新与人力资本结构高级化是数字基础设施建设促进山东新旧动能转换的重要路径。这为数字基础设施建设促进山东新旧动能转换的发展提供了理论参考和以下政策启示:加大对数字基础设施建设的投入,积极落实“宽带中国”试点城市政策;增强技术创新能力,促进数字基础设施建设的发展;加大教育投入,提升地方人力资本水平。

安徽省经济高质量发展新旧动能转换路径研究

新时代背景下,为实现并推动安徽省经济高质量发展,对新旧动能转换路径进行优化势在必行。文章首先分析了安徽省经济发展总体概况,其次深入研究了当前的经济发展现状以及面临的问题和挑战,最后提出安徽省新旧动能转换的路径选择,具体包括创新驱动、产业融合与集群发展、绿色经济与可持续发展、政策环境优化四个方向策略及一系列建议,以促进产业升级、技术创新和政策支持,从而实现安徽省经济的可持续发展。

校政企合作背景下定制化人才培养模式创新机制研究——以山东省为例

基于山东省现代服务业转型升级对高技能专业人才的迫切要求,文章应用“新旧动能转换”理论,在分析山东省职业教育人才培养模式现状及存在的问题的基础上,重点阐述了校政企合作背景下定制化人才培养模式的内涵,并从多个层面提出了山东省职业教育定制化人才培养模式的创新机制和运行思路,形成系统化、理论化的定制化人才培养模式创新思路,旨在为山东省定制化人才培养模式的有效创建提供借鉴。

新形势下济南邢家渡引黄灌区生态建设探讨

济南邢家渡引黄灌区作为全省六大灌区之一,位于济南市新旧动能转换起步区的核心位置,灌区生态建设在新旧动能转换与高质量发展的背景下显得尤为重要。灌区的生态建设需要坚持生态优先、绿色发展的原则;需要注重生态系统的整体性和协同性;需要强化科技创新和人才支撑;需要完善政策体系和管理机制。基于此,本文提出了邢家渡引黄灌区生态建设策略。

Seasonal differences in climatic controls of vegetation growth in the Beijing–Tianjin Sand Source Region of China

Launched in 2002, the Beiing–Tianjin Sand Source Control Project (BTSSCP) is an ecological restoration project intended to prevent desertification in China. Evidence from multiple sources has confirmed increases in vegetation growth in the BTSSCP region since the initiation of this project. Precipitation and essential climate variable-soil moisture (ECV-SM) conditions are typically considered to be the main drivers of vegetation growth in this region. Although many studies have investigated the inter-annual variations of vegetation growth, few concerns have been focused on the annual and seasonal variations of vegetation growth and their climatic drivers, which are crucial for understanding the relationships among the climate, vegetation, and human activities at the regional scale. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from MODIS and the corresponding climatic data, we explored the responses of vegetation growth to climatic factors at annual and seasonal scales in the BTSSCP region during the period 2000–2014. Over the study region as a whole, NDVI generally increased from 2000 to 2014, at a rate of 0.002/a. Vegetation growth is stimulated mainly by the elevated temperature in spring, whereas precipitation is the leading driver of summer greening. In autumn, positive effects of both temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were observed. The warming in spring promotes vegetation growth but reduces ECV-SM. Summer greening has a strong cooling effect on land surface temperature. These results indicate that the ecological and environmental consequences of ecological restoration projects should be comprehensively evaluated.

Overreliance on Net Export and Investment Impedes China's Structural Transformation: Estimation and Analysis Based on a Multi-Sector Growth Model

Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.

新旧动能转换推动经济双循环协调发展的效应检验

文章基于2003—2020年30个省份面板数据,构建综合指数,建立有调节的中介模型探讨新旧动能转换、产业集聚和双循环协调发展的关联机制,并检验了政府干预在传导路径中的调节作用。研究发现:新旧动能转换对经济双循环协调发展具有正向促进作用,产业集聚存在正向的部分中介效应,但间接路径所占比重较低;政府干预强化了新旧动能转换对双循环协调发展的直接效应,且随干预水平提高正向调节作用不断增强;当政府干预处于低水平时,产业专业化集聚间接效应占比高;当政府干预处于高水平时,产业多样化集聚间接效应占比提高;当政府干预水平位于均值-0.33与-0.02个单位区间时,新旧动能转换通过同时促进产业专业化集聚和多样化集聚推动双循环协调发展。

加快发展“十强产业”背景下山东高职学生就业创业教育体系构建路径研究

在加快发展“十强产业”背景下,山东省高职学生的就业创业既面临着许多挑战,又适逢稍纵即逝的战略机遇期。本文在分析加快发展“十强产业”背景下山东高职人才供需状态的基础上,阐述了当前高职就业创业教育体系中存在的问题,并针对这些问题,提出重构和创新以校企合作为基础的实践教学平台系统;加强高职院校专业的顶层设计,优化应用型技能人才培养方略;改变传统教育观念,优化教育投入主体,从而形成“十强产业”引领合力,将山东经济战略的认知培养、职业能力培养、创业能力培养贯穿于新的就业创业教育体系中,以促进山东省高职学生充分就业,成功创业,为山东省“十强产业”高质量发展贡献高职教育的力量。

新旧动能转换背景下山东省装备制造业技术技能人才需求调研与分析

新旧动能转换战略为山东省装备制造业快速发展和转型升级提供契机。为了解山东省装备制造业的发展现状和用人需求,通过问卷调查、座谈等方式进行调研和分析,提出高职院校服务装备制造业转型升级的对策和建议。

2023-2024年中国宏观经济预测--兼论重塑消费增长动力的政策选择

2022年,受严格的疫情防控措施和全球经济下行压力的影响,中国经济仅录得3.0%的增速,是自改革开放以来中国经济增速的第二低。展望2023年,中国经济将全面复苏,但仍然面临较大压力,扩大内需、重塑消费增长动力成为优先的政策选择。运用中国季度宏观经济模型,对2023-2024年中国宏观经济主要指标进行预测。结果显示,2023年,中国GDP增速预计达到5.96%。对住房贷款规模扩张和居民可支配收入增加进行的反事实模拟结果发现,居民可支配收入增加带来的居民消费改善要优于住房贷款规模扩张,对GDP的促进作用也更为明显。相比于提振住房消费,提高居民可支配收入将更有助于促进消费和经济增长。为此,要提振消费,扩大内需,应当将提高居民可支配收入作为先决条件;同时,应致力于完善公共服务体系,优化消费环境,控制居民部门继续“加杠杆”以及有针对性地实施财税政策。