Future Event Prediction Based on Temporal Knowledge Graph Embedding

Accurate prediction of future events brings great benefits and reduces losses for society in many domains,such as civil unrest,pandemics,and crimes.Knowledge graph is a general language for describing and modeling complex systems.Different types of events continually occur,which are often related to historical and concurrent events.In this paper,we formalize the future event prediction as a temporal knowledge graph reasoning problem.Most existing studies either conduct reasoning on static knowledge graphs or assume knowledges graphs of all timestamps are available during the training process.As a result,they cannot effectively reason over temporal knowledge graphs and predict events happening in the future.To address this problem,some recent works learn to infer future events based on historical eventbased temporal knowledge graphs.However,these methods do not comprehensively consider the latent patterns and influences behind historical events and concurrent events simultaneously.This paper proposes a new graph representation learning model,namely Recurrent Event Graph ATtention Network(RE-GAT),based on a novel historical and concurrent events attention-aware mechanism by modeling the event knowledge graph sequence recurrently.More specifically,our RE-GAT uses an attention-based historical events embedding module to encode past events,and employs an attention-based concurrent events embedding module to model the associations of events at the same timestamp.A translation-based decoder module and a learning objective are developed to optimize the embeddings of entities and relations.We evaluate our proposed method on four benchmark datasets.Extensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our RE-GAT model comparing to various base-lines,which proves that our method can more accurately predict what events are going to happen.

Extrapolation over temporal knowledge graph via hyperbolic embedding

Predicting potential facts in the future,Temporal Knowledge Graph(TKG)extrapolation remains challenging because of the deep dependence between the temporal association and semantic patterns of facts.Intuitively,facts(events)that happened at different timestamps have different influences on future events,which can be attributed to a hierarchy among not only facts but also relevant entities.Therefore,it is crucial to pay more attention to important entities and events when forecasting the future.However,most existing methods focus on reasoning over temporally evolving facts or mining evolutional patterns from known facts,which may be affected by the diversity and variability of the evolution,and they might fail to attach importance to facts that matter.Hyperbolic geometry was proved to be effective in capturing hierarchical patterns among data,which is considered to be a solution for modelling hierarchical relations among facts.To this end,we propose ReTIN,a novel model integrating real-time influence of historical facts for TKG reasoning based on hyperbolic geometry,which provides low-dimensional embeddings to capture latent hierarchical structures and other rich semantic patterns of the existing TKG.Considering both real-time and global features of TKG boosts the adaptation of ReTIN to the ever-changing dynamics and inherent constraints.Extensive experiments on benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of ReTIN over various baselines.The ablation study further supports the value of exploiting temporal information.

RotatS:temporal knowledge graph completion based on rotation and scaling in 3D space

As the research of knowledge graph(KG)is deepened and widely used,knowledge graph com-pletion(KGC)has attracted more and more attentions from researchers,especially in scenarios of in-telligent search,social networks and deep question and answer(Q&A).Current research mainly fo-cuses on the completion of static knowledge graphs,and the temporal information in temporal knowl-edge graphs(TKGs)is ignored.However,the temporal information is definitely very helpful for the completion.Note that existing researches on temporal knowledge graph completion are difficult to process temporal information and to integrate entities,relations and time well.In this work,a rotation and scaling(RotatS)model is proposed,which learns rotation and scaling transformations from head entity embedding to tail entity embedding in 3D spaces to capture the information of time and rela-tions in the temporal knowledge graph.The performance of the proposed RotatS model have been evaluated by comparison with several baselines under similar experimental conditions and space com-plexity on four typical knowl good graph completion datasets publicly available online.The study shows that RotatS can achieve good results in terms of prediction accuracy.