Study on stability of permafrost slopes during thawing

A numerical simulation platform that analyzes the variation of the slope factor of safety with time instantaneously is proposed based on heat conduction theory to study the law of stability development of permafrost slopes during thawing.This platform considers ice-water phase change,elastoplastic constitutive behavior and strength reduction in thawing permafrost and can evaluate the factor of safety of permafrost slopes with different slope angles and water contents.Results indicate that under different slope angles and water contents,the evolution of the factor of safety with time displays two stages:nonlinearly decreasing at first and then essentially remaining constant.During the decreasing stage,the plastic slip line overlaps with the thawing front.In this stage,the selfweight of the post-thawed permafrost layer increases continuously while the shear strength of the frozen-thaw interface keeps unchanged.This is the main reason leading to the decrease in the factor of safety.In the second stage,the thawing depth increases continuously while the position of the plastic slip line remains unchanged,resulting in a constant safety factor stage.

Discussion on possibilities of taking ground ice in permafrost as water sources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during climate warming

Large amounts of ground ice are born with permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Degradation of permafrost resulted from the climate warming will inevitably lead to melting of ground ice.The water released from the melting ground ice enters hydrologic cycles at various levels,and changes regional hydrologic regimes to various degrees.Due to difficulties in monitoring the perma-frost-degradation-release-water process,direct and reliable evidence is few.The accumulative effect of releasing water,however,is remarkable in the macro-scale hydrologic process.On the basis of the monitoring results of water-levels changes in some lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and combined with the previous results of the hydrologic changing trends at the regional scale,the authors preliminarily discussed the possibilities of the degrading permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a potential water source during climate warming.

Large-scale permafrost degradation as a primary factor in Larix sibirica forest dieback in the Khentii massif,northern Mongolia

The objective of this study is to investigate the potential causes of widespread Larix sibirica Ledeb.mortality observed in the Khentii massif of northern Mongolia.The ratio of deadwood to living trees in affected stands in the Goricho region,the southernmost study site situated close to the Gobi Desert,was as high as 3.6:1.Moisture fluctuations monitored over 2 years using electrical impedance spectrometry revealed that the Goricho study site had higher soil moisture levels than the two less affected sites Barun Bayan and Dzun Bayan.High soil moisture was recorded in an area characterized by highly skeletal soils,ones with more than 35%by volume of rock fragments,and comparatively shallow soil horizons,from valley to mountains.The layer of permafrost influencing hydrogeological processes is much deeper in the Goricho region compared to the undisturbed study sites.Redundancy analysis confirmed a significant number of dead L.sibirica on sites with developed soils.Live forest stands,however damaged,grow in this region on well-drained scree slopes or on rocky bastions.The mass mortality observed for L.sibirica may be directly linked to accelerated permafrost thaw in the area bordered by the Tuul and the Terelj Rivers.Our assumption is that L.sibirica root system necrosis occurred as a result of long-term waterlogging of developed soils with high spatial heterogeneity,normally able to absorb high quantities of groundwater.The areas unaffected were scree fields and rocky bastions characterized by adequate drainage.All of our findings support the primary stages of large-scale permafrost thaw,i.e.,correlating increases in soil moisture with increasing permafrost active layer thickness.

Impact of permafrost degradation on embankment deformation of Qinghai-Tibet Highway in permafrost regions

Based on long-term monitoring data, the relationships between permafrost degradation and embankment deformation are analyzed along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway(QTH). Due to heat absorbing effect of asphalt pavement and climate warming,permafrost beneath asphalt pavement experienced significant warming and degradation. During the monitoring period, warming amplitude of the soil at depth of 5 m under asphalt ranged from 0.21 °C at the XD1 site to 0.5 °C at the KL1 site. And at depth of 10 m, the increase amplitude of ground temperature ranged from 0.47 °C at the NA1 site to 0.07 °C at the XD1 site. Along with ground temperature increase, permafrost table beneath asphalt pavement decline considerably. Amplitude of permafrost table decline varied from 0.53 m at the KL1 site to 3.51 m at the NA1 site, with mean amplitude of 1.65 m for 8 monitoring sites during the monitoring period. Due to permafrost warming and degradation, the embankment deformation all performed as settlement at these sites. At present, those settlements still develop quickly and are expected to continue to increase in the future. The embankment deformations can be divided into homogeneous deformation and inhomogeneous deformation. Embankment longitudinal inhomogeneous deformation causes the wave deformations and has adverse effects on driving comfort and safety, while lateral inhomogeneous deformation causes longitudinal cracks and has an adverse effect on stability. Corresponding with permafrost degradation processes,embankment settlement can be divided into four stages. For QTH, embankment settlement is mainly comprised of thawing consolidation of ice-rich permafrost and creep of warming permafrost beneath permafrost table.

Permafrost carbon cycle and its dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau

Our knowledge on permafrost carbon(C)cycle is crucial for understanding its feedback to climate warming and developing nature-based solutions for mitigating climate change.To understand the characteristics of permafrost C cycle on the Tibetan Plateau,the largest alpine permafrost region around the world,we summarized recent advances including the stocks and fluxes of permafrost C and their responses to thawing,and depicted permafrost C dynamics within this century.We find that this alpine permafrost region stores approximately 14.1 Pg(1 Pg=1015g)of soil organic C(SOC)in the top 3 m.Both substantial gaseous emissions and lateral C transport occur across this permafrost region.Moreover,the mobilization of frozen C is expedited by permafrost thaw,especially by the formation of thermokarst landscapes,which could release significant amounts of C into the atmosphere and surrounding water bodies.This alpine permafrost region nevertheless remains an important C sink,and its capacity to sequester C will continue to increase by 2100.For future perspectives,we would suggest developing long-term in situ observation networks of C stocks and fluxes with improved temporal and spatial coverage,and exploring the mechanisms underlying the response of ecosystem C cycle to permafrost thaw.In addition,it is essential to improve the projection of permafrost C dynamics through in-depth model-data fusion on the Tibetan Plateau.

Observed permafrost thawing and disappearance near the altitudinal limit of permafrost in the Qilian Mountains

Permafrost degradation has been widely reported on the Tibetan Plateau(TP).However,directly observed evidence of permafrost thawing processes and degradation rates are very limited,although it is expected to be prevalent near the periphery of a permafrost area.Here,we report permafrost changes and disappearance in the Qilian Mountains(northeastern TP)based on three boreholes instrumented along a 100 m transect during 2014–2021.Our results show that permafrost has significantly degraded in the study area:the mean downward thawing rate from the permafrost table was about 0.16 m per year while the mean upward thawing rate from the permafrost base was about 0.23 m per year.We estimate the mean lateral degradation rate of permafrost in this area was∼4.14 m per year.More dramatically,the 1.5 m thick permafrost layer at one of the boreholes thawed completely between April of 2018 and December of 2019.Our results indicate that changes in climatic condition may have played only a limited role in controlling the active layer thickness in the vicinity of the altitudinal limit of permafrost;moisture content and soil conditions play key roles in site-specific permafrost thawing.This study provides new quantitative insights for understanding changes near the altitudinal limit of permafrost,and we suggest that land surface models or Earth system model studies of the lateral heat exchanges should be implemented in order to better represent permafrost thawing processes.

Potential of Multi‑temporal InSAR for Detecting Retrogressive Thaw Slumps: A Case of the Beiluhe Region of the Tibetan Plateau

Permafrost degradation due to climate warming is severely reducing slope stability by increasing soil pore water pressure and decreasing shear strength.Retrogressive thaw slumps(RTSs)are among the most dynamic landforms in permafrost areas,which can result in the instability of landscape and ecosystem.However,the spatiotemporal characteristics of surface deformation of RTSs are still unclear,and the potentials of deformation properties in mapping large-scale RTSs need to be further assessed.In this study,we applied a multi-temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(MT-InSAR)method to map the spatiotemporal variations in surface deformation of RTSs in the Beiluhe region of the Tibetan Plateau by using 112 scenes of Sentinel-1 SAR data acquired from 2017 to 2021.The deformation rates of RTSs ranged from−35 to 20 mm/year,and three typical motion stages were inferred by analyzing the deformation variation trend of the headwall of RTSs:stable,abrupt thaw,and linear subsidence.A total of 375 RTSs were identifed in the Mati Hill region by combining InSAR-based deformation results with visual interpretation of optical remote sensing images.Among them,76 RTSs were newly developed,and 26%more than the inventory derived from the optical images alone.This study demonstrated that the combination of InSAR-derived deformation with optical images has signifcant potential for detecting RTSs with high accuracy and efciency at the regional scale.