Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Deep Learning for Financial Time Series Prediction:A State-of-the-Art Review of Standalone and HybridModels

Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions.

Application of uncertainty reasoning based on cloud model in time series prediction

Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.

Chaotic time series prediction using fuzzy sigmoid kernel-based support vector machines

Support vector machines （SVM） have been widely used in chaotic time series predictions in recent years. In order to enhance the prediction efficiency of this method and implement it in hardware, the sigmoid kernel in SVM is drawn in a more natural way by using the fuzzy logic method proposed in this paper. This method provides easy hardware implementation and straightforward interpretability. Experiments on two typical chaotic time series predictions have been carried out and the obtained results show that the average CPU time can be reduced significantly at the cost of a small decrease in prediction accuracy, which is favourable for the hardware implementation for chaotic time series prediction.

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using LS-SVM with Chaotic Mutation Evolutionary Programming for Parameter Optimization

Nonlinear time series prediction is studied by using an improved least squares support vector machine （LSSVM） regression based on chaotic mutation evolutionary programming （CMEP） approach for parameter optimization. We analyze how the prediction error varies with different parameters （σ, γ） in LS-SVM. In order to select appropriate parameters for the prediction model, we employ CMEP algorithm. Finally, Nasdaq stock data are predicted by using this LS-SVM regression based on CMEP, and satisfactory results are obtained.

LS-SVR and AGO Based Time Series Prediction Method

Recently, fault or health condition prediction of complex systems becomes an interesting research topic. However, it is difficult to establish precise physical model for complex systems, and the time series properties are often necessary to be incorporated for the prediction in practice. Currently, the LS-SVR is widely adopted for prediction of systems with time series data. In this paper, in order to improve the prediction accuracy, accumulated generating operation （AGO） is carried out to improve the data quality and regularity of raw time series data based on grey system theory; then, the inverse accumulated generating operation （IAGO） is performed to obtain the prediction results. In addition, due to the reason that appropriate kernel function plays an important role in improving the accuracy of prediction through LS-SVR, a modified Gaussian radial basis function （RBF） is proposed. The requirements of distance functions-based kernel functions are satisfied, which ensure fast damping at the place adjacent to the test point and a moderate damping at infinity. The presented model is applied to the analysis of benchmarks. As indicated by the results, the proposed method is an effective prediction one with good precision.

Parameter selection in time series prediction based on nu-support vector regression

The theory of nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) is employed in modeling time series variationfor prediction. In order to avoid prediction performance degradation caused by improper parameters, themethod of parallel multidimensional step search (PMSS) is proposed for users to select best parameters intraining support vector machine to get a prediction model. A series of tests are performed to evaluate themodeling mechanism and prediction results indicate that Nu-SVR models can reflect the variation tendencyof time series with low prediction error on both familiar and unfamiliar data. Statistical analysis is alsoemployed to verify the optimization performance of PMSS algorithm and comparative results indicate thattraining error can take the minimum over the interval around planar data point corresponding to selectedparameters. Moreover, the introduction of parallelization can remarkably speed up the optimizing procedure.

Time series prediction of mining subsidence based on a SVM

In order to study dynamic laws of surface movements over coal mines due to mining activities,a dynamic prediction model of surface movements was established,based on the theory of support vector machines(SVM) and times-series analysis.An engineering application was used to verify the correctness of the model.Measurements from observation stations were analyzed and processed to obtain equal-time interval surface movement data and subjected to tests of stationary,zero means and normality.Then the data were used to train the SVM model.A time series model was established to predict mining subsidence by rational choices of embedding dimensions and SVM parameters.MAPE and WIA were used as indicators to evaluate the accuracy of the model and for generalization performance.In the end,the model was used to predict future surface movements.Data from observation stations in Huaibei coal mining area were used as an example.The results show that the maximum absolute error of subsidence is 9 mm,the maximum relative error 1.5%,the maximum absolute error of displacement 7 mm and the maximum relative error 1.8%.The accuracy and reliability of the model meet the requirements of on-site engineering.The results of the study provide a new approach to investigate the dynamics of surface movements.

AFSTGCN:Prediction for multivariate time series using an adaptive fused spatial-temporal graph convolutional network

The prediction for Multivariate Time Series(MTS)explores the interrelationships among variables at historical moments,extracts their relevant characteristics,and is widely used in finance,weather,complex industries and other fields.Furthermore,it is important to construct a digital twin system.However,existing methods do not take full advantage of the potential properties of variables,which results in poor predicted accuracy.In this paper,we propose the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(AFSTGCN).First,to address the problem of the unknown spatial-temporal structure,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph(AFSTG)layer.Specifically,we fuse the spatial-temporal graph based on the interrelationship of spatial graphs.Simultaneously,we construct the adaptive adjacency matrix of the spatial-temporal graph using node embedding methods.Subsequently,to overcome the insufficient extraction of disordered correlation features,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional(AFSTGC)module.The module forces the reordering of disordered temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal dependencies into rule-like data.AFSTGCN dynamically and synchronously acquires potential temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal correlations,thereby fully extracting rich hierarchical feature information to enhance the predicted accuracy.Experiments on different types of MTS datasets demonstrate that the model achieves state-of-the-art single-step and multi-step performance compared with eight other deep learning models.

Data-driven approaches for time series prediction of daily production in the Sulige tight gas field, China

The Sulige tight gas field is presently the largest gas field in China.Owing to the ultralow permeability and strong heterogeneity of the reservoirs in Sulige,the number of production wells has exceeded 3,000,keeping the stable gas supply in the decade.Thus,the daily production prediction of gas wells is significant for monitoring production and for implementing and evaluating stimulation measures.Therefore,on the basis of the three datadriven time series approaches,the daily production of 1692 wells over 10 years was mining for the daily production prediction of wells in Sulige.The jointed deep long short-term memory and fully connected neural network(DLSTM-FNN)model was proposed by introducing the recurrent neural network's sequential expression ability and was compared with random forest(RF)and support vector regression(SVR).After the daily production predictions of thousands of wells in Sulige,the proposed DLSTM-FNN model significantly improved the time series prediction accuracy and efficiency in the short training samples and had strong availability and practicability in the Sulige tight gas field.

Analysis and Prognostication of Residents'Per Capita Disposable Income in Hubei Province using Time Series Prediction Methods

To anticipate the fluctuations in per capita disposable income among Hubei Province inhabitants for the subsequent biennium,a dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 was culled.Employed in this study were three distinct time series prognostication methodologies:Exponential Smoothing(Holt-Winter),Autoregressive Moving Average(ARMA),and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA).These techniques were applied to envision the forthcoming trajectory of per capita disposable income for the province's residents.By computing diverse metrics to assess predictive discrepancies—like the Mean Absolute Error(MAE)and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)—the effectiveness of the assorted models was gauged,culminating in the selection of the ARIMA model due to its superior performance.Capitalizing on this,approximations for per capita disposable income during 2023 and 2024 were extrapolated.The resultant prognoses project a sustained and noteworthy uptick in per capita disposable income for urban denizens of Hubei Province in the forthcoming biennial span.Ultimately,the findings were translated into actionable policy suggestions and deductions,rendering them highly pertinent for the dissection of Hubei Province's economic evolution.

Time series online prediction algorithm based on least squares support vector machine

Deficiencies of applying the traditional least squares support vector machine （LS-SVM） to time series online prediction were specified. According to the kernel function matrix＇s property and using the recursive calculation of block matrix, a new time series online prediction algorithm based on improved LS-SVM was proposed. The historical training results were fully utilized and the computing speed of LS-SVM was enhanced. Then, the improved algorithm was applied to timc series online prediction. Based on the operational data provided by the Northwest Power Grid of China, the method was used in the transient stability prediction of electric power system. The results show that, compared with the calculation time of the traditional LS-SVM（75 1 600 ms）, that of the proposed method in different time windows is 40-60 ms, proposed method is above 0.8. So the improved method is online prediction. and the prediction accuracy（normalized root mean squared error） of the better than the traditional LS-SVM and more suitable for time series online prediction.

Prediction of Time Series Empowered with a Novel SREKRLS Algorithm

For the unforced dynamical non-linear state–space model,a new Q1 and efficient square root extended kernel recursive least square estimation algorithm is developed in this article.The proposed algorithm lends itself towards the parallel implementation as in the FPGA systems.With the help of an ortho-normal triangularization method,which relies on numerically stable givens rotation,matrix inversion causes a computational burden,is reduced.Matrix computation possesses many excellent numerical properties such as singularity,symmetry,skew symmetry,and triangularity is achieved by using this algorithm.The proposed method is validated for the prediction of stationary and non-stationary Mackey–Glass Time Series,along with that a component in the x-direction of the Lorenz Times Series is also predicted to illustrate its usefulness.By the learning curves regarding mean square error(MSE)are witnessed for demonstration with prediction performance of the proposed algorithm from where it’s concluded that the proposed algorithm performs better than EKRLS.This new SREKRLS based design positively offers an innovative era towards non-linear systolic arrays,which is efficient in developing very-large-scale integration(VLSI)applications with non-linear input data.Multiple experiments are carried out to validate the reliability,effectiveness,and applicability of the proposed algorithm and with different noise levels compared to the Extended kernel recursive least-squares(EKRLS)algorithm.

STUDY ON THE PREDICTION METHOD OF LOW-DIMENSION TIME SERIES THAT ARISE FROM THE INTRINSIC NONLINEAR DYNAMICS

The prediction methods and its applications of the nonlinear dynamic systems determined from chaotic time series of low-dimension are discussed mainly. Based on the work of the foreign researchers, the chaotic time series in the phase space adopting one kind of nonlinear chaotic model were reconstructed. At first, the model parameters were estimated by using the improved least square method. Then as the precision was satisfied, the optimization method was used to estimate these parameters. At the end by using the obtained chaotic model, the future data of the chaotic time series in the phase space was predicted. Some representative experimental examples were analyzed to testify the models and the algorithms developed in this paper. ne results show that if the algorithms developed here are adopted, the parameters of the corresponding chaotic model will be easily calculated well and true. Predictions of chaotic series in phase space make the traditional methods change from outer iteration to interpolations. And if the optimal model rank is chosen, the prediction precision will increase notably. Long term superior predictability of nonlinear chaotic models is proved to be irrational and unreasonable.

A framework based on sparse representation model for time series prediction in smart city

Smart city driven by Big Data and Internet of Things(loT)has become a most promising trend of the future.As one important function of smart city,event alert based on time series prediction is faced with the challenge of how to extract and represent discriminative features of sensing knowledge from the massive sequential data generated by IoT devices.In this paper,a framework based on sparse representa-tion model(SRM)for time series prediction is proposed as an efficient approach to tackle this challenge.After dividing the over-complete dictionary into upper and lower parts,the main idea of SRM is to obtain the sparse representation of time series based on the upper part firstly,and then realize the prediction of future values based on the lower part.The choice of different dictionaries has a significant impact on the performance of SRM.This paper focuses on the study of dictionary construction strategy and summarizes eight variants of SRM.Experimental results demonstrate that SRM can deal with different types of time series prediction flexibly and effectively.

Research on Prediction of Sentiment Trend of Food Safety Public Opinion

Emotion has a nearly decisive role in behavior, which will directly affect netizens’ views on food safety public opinion events, thereby affecting the development direction of public opinion on the event, and it is of great significance for food safety network public opinion to predict emotional trends to do a good job in food safety network public opinion guidance. In this paper, the dynamic text representation method XLNet is used to generate word vectors with context-dependent dependencies to distribute the text information of food safety network public opinion. Then, the word vector is input into the CNN-BiLSTM network for local semantic feature and context semantic extraction. The attention mechanism is introduced to give different weights according to the importance of features, and the emotional tendency analysis is carried out. Based on sentiment analysis, sentiment value time series data is obtained, and a time series model is constructed to predict sentiment trends. The sentiment analysis model proposed in this paper can well classify the sentiment of food safety network public opinion, and the time series model has a good effect on the prediction of food safety network public opinion sentiment trend. .

Performance Degradation Prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Based on CEEMDAN-KPCA and DA-GRU Networks

In order to improve the performance degradation prediction accuracy of proton exchange membrane fuel cell(PEMFC),a fusion prediction method(CKDG)based on adaptive noise complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition(CEEMDAN),kernel principal component analysis(KPCA)and dual attention mechanism gated recurrent unit neural network(DA-GRU)was proposed.CEEMDAN and KPCA were used to extract the input feature data sequence,reduce the influence of random factors,and capture essential feature components to reduce the model complexity.The DA-GRU network helps to learn the feature mapping relationship of data in long time series and predict the changing trend of performance degradation data more accurately.The actual aging experimental data verify the performance of the CKDG method.The results show that under the steady-state condition of 20%training data prediction,the CKDA method can reduce the root mean square error(RMSE)by 52.7%and 34.6%,respectively,compared with the traditional LSTM and GRU neural networks.Compared with the simple DA-GRU network,RMSE is reduced by 15%,and the degree of over-fitting is reduced,which has higher accuracy.It also shows excellent prediction performance under the dynamic condition data set and has good universality.

Multi-dimension and multi-modal rolling mill vibration prediction model based on multi-level network fusion

Mill vibration is a common problem in rolling production,which directly affects the thickness accuracy of the strip and may even lead to strip fracture accidents in serious cases.The existing vibration prediction models do not consider the features contained in the data,resulting in limited improvement of model accuracy.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a multi-dimensional multi-modal cold rolling vibration time series prediction model(MDMMVPM)based on the deep fusion of multi-level networks.In the model,the long-term and short-term modal features of multi-dimensional data are considered,and the appropriate prediction algorithms are selected for different data features.Based on the established prediction model,the effects of tension and rolling force on mill vibration are analyzed.Taking the 5th stand of a cold mill in a steel mill as the research object,the innovative model is applied to predict the mill vibration for the first time.The experimental results show that the correlation coefficient(R^(2))of the model proposed in this paper is 92.5%,and the root-mean-square error(RMSE)is 0.0011,which significantly improves the modeling accuracy compared with the existing models.The proposed model is also suitable for the hot rolling process,which provides a new method for the prediction of strip rolling vibration.

An Integrated Analysis of Yield Prediction Models:A Comprehensive Review of Advancements and Challenges

The growing global requirement for food and the need for sustainable farming in an era of a changing climate and scarce resources have inspired substantial crop yield prediction research.Deep learning(DL)and machine learning(ML)models effectively deal with such challenges.This research paper comprehensively analyses recent advancements in crop yield prediction from January 2016 to March 2024.In addition,it analyses the effectiveness of various input parameters considered in crop yield prediction models.We conducted an in-depth search and gathered studies that employed crop modeling and AI-based methods to predict crop yield.The total number of articles reviewed for crop yield prediction using ML,meta-modeling(Crop models coupled with ML/DL),and DL-based prediction models and input parameter selection is 125.We conduct the research by setting up five objectives for this research and discussing them after analyzing the selected research papers.Each study is assessed based on the crop type,input parameters employed for prediction,the modeling techniques adopted,and the evaluation metrics used for estimatingmodel performance.We also discuss the ethical and social impacts of AI on agriculture.However,various approaches presented in the scientific literature have delivered impressive predictions,they are complicateddue to intricate,multifactorial influences oncropgrowthand theneed for accuratedata-driven models.Therefore,thorough research is required to deal with challenges in predicting agricultural output.

STUDY ON PREDICTION METHODS FOR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS OF NONLINEAR CHAOTIC TIME SERIES＊

The prediction methods for nonlinear dynamic systems which are decided by chaotic time series are mainly studied as well as structures of nonlinear self-related chaotic models and their dimensions. By combining neural networks and wavelet theories, the structures of wavelet transform neural networks were studied and also a wavelet neural networks learning method was given. Based on wavelet networks, a new method for parameter identification was suggested, which can be used selectively to extract different scales of frequency and time in time series in order to realize prediction of tendencies or details of original time series. Through pre-treatment and comparison of results before and after the treatment, several useful conclusions are reached: High accurate identification can be guaranteed by applying wavelet networks to identify parameters of self-related chaotic models and more valid prediction of the chaotic time series including noise can be achieved accordingly.