Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

Seizures Related to Two-child Policy:A Case Report

From 1979 to 2012,the Chinese government implemented the one-child policy to control population growth.In 2013,families in which either parent was the only one child were allowed to apply for a second child.In 2016,China’s universal two-child policy was finally imposed.As such,many children who had always been the center of their family’s universe due to the unique family structure stemming from the one-child policy era became elder siblings during their adolescence.We report a case of a 9-year-old girl who developed seizures after the birth of her younger sister.The combination of clinical observation,laboratory examinations,and video-electroencephalography was not enough to make a confident diagnosis of epilepsy initially.Given her patient history and follow-up investigation,we speculated the two-child policy was related to her seizures.To our knowledge,this is the first report of seizures strongly related to the two-child policy.

The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

Family planning has been China's basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a onechild policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China's population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase;the peak of China's population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people, which will continue the regional differentiation of urbanization, and urbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

The employment impact analysis of Full-scale two-child policy for career women

With the development of China＇s childbearing policy changes in recent years, it causes effects to women＇s social life. Based on the questionnaire survey of influencing factors about professional women＇s intention of second child birth and with two child policy was carry out as the background, summed up the three major factors influencing the working women fertility fertility intention, emotional factors and external security. At the same time using the structural equation model, studies the impact of the influence factors to the career development of working women. The conclusion is that childbearing willing has little effects on the professional women in Shanghai, emotional factors and external security has certain impact on women＇ s employment.

Study on the Influence of the the Universal Two-childPolicy on China＇s Pension Payment

In the face of the continuous decline in the birth rate and the aging of the peak of aging, following the implementation of the ＂Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues＂ adopted by the Filth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 15, 2013, the party is the only child. Female couples can have a policy of giving birth to two children. On October 29, 2015, China introduced the ＂two-child policy＂, completely replacing the ＂one-child policy＂ that has been implemented in China for more than 30 years. The ＂two-child comprehensive＂ can alleviate the unfavorable population trend that plagues China＇s social security system to a certain extent. Optimize the age structure of the population and increase the supply of labor. However, for a long time, the financial distress and management dilemma faced by China＇s pension payment still exist, and the loose population birth policy will have a great impact on reducing pension payment, and will gradually appear in the policy implementation. This article combines the ＂comprehensive two-child＂ policy, focusing on the role of the new population birth policy to alleviate the pressure on China＇s pension.

Effects of the New Two-child Policy On Family Old-age Security

This paper analyzes the current situation of the aging population and low fertility rate.lt is found that the aging process is accelerated, the population growth potential is decreased, and the elderly dependency ratio is higher.Secondly, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the new two-child policy on family pension security from three aspects： population policy, family support and social security.There are two aspects of the effects, the positive effects are：improve fertility, reduce elderly dependency ratio, relieve population aging,enhance the family development： the negative effects are： tremendous pressure on public resources, further inequality in birth right, heavy economic pressure on the family.At last. this paper puts forward the constructive countermeasures against the problems of the policy and the was out of the family old-age security.

Assessing the Impact of the“Two-child Policy”in China:The Effects of the Second Child on the Growth of Teenagers

Purpose:China’s new universal two-child policy has brought a baby boom of the second child in 2016.With the changing family structures,elder children in adolescence may have more and more emotional and even psycholog­ical problems such as“two-child syndrome”.This paper aims to explore the“influence factors and mechanism of the second child on the growth of teenagers”and has great practical significance to promote the physical and mental health of teenagers and the harmony of two-child families.Design/methodology/approach:By means of literature analysis,in-depth interview,questionnaire survey and statistical analysis,the elder children aged 12 to 18 in the two-child family were taken as the main body of the survey,and an empirical research based on NLP understanding hierarchy theory was carried out.Major Findings:(1)The most significant influence on the growth of teenagers is the attitude of parents,and then the gender of the first child.(2)Parents’favouritism towards the second child would lead to decline in the first child’s academic performance.(3)The higher the family income,the less the influence on the first child’s life.(4)When the age difference is large,the first child and the second child are not easy to have conflicts.Practical implications:Parents should try to treat any children equally.Parents should pay attention to the sibling relationship of their two chil­dren with small age gap.Parents who have two children with a large age gap should properly guide the elder child to help take care of the younger brother or sister.Originality/value:This study contributes to the growing literature focus­ing on the influence factors and mechanism of the second child on the growth of teenagers in the context of China’s new universal two-child policy.It adds some early empirical insights on the physical and mental health of teenagers in two-child families.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Pregnancy and Delivery before and after Implementation of the Two-child Policy

Background： After the two-child policy is frilly implemented, new challenges regarding pregnancy management and the treatment of pregnancy complications will arise. The aim of this study was to analyze the characteristics of pregnancy and delivery before and after the implementation of the two-child policy to make suggestions on the quality assurance of the new era of obstetrics. Methods： In total, 5895 cases of pregnant women who delivered from April 2016 to March 2017 in Peking University Third Hospital served as the study group and 5103 cases of pregnant women who delivered from January to December 2015 served as the control group. The characteristics of pregnancy and delivery were retrospectively analyzed. Results： In the study group, the percentage of pregnant women who were older （over 40 years） （3.6% vs. 2.2%）, were multipara （30.3% vs. 17.0%）, received irregular prenatal care （ 1.5% vs. 0.9%）, were transferred for treatment from a subordinate hospital （4.4% vs. 2.8%）, and were not residents of Beijing （3.8% vs. 2.2%）, were significantly increased compared with the control group （P 〈 0.05）. In the study group, the rate of a hypertensive disorder complicating pregnancy （6.4% vs. 5.0%）, gestational diabetes mellitus （25.3% vs. 23.1%）, dangerous placenta previa （3.0% vs. 2.3%）, placental implantation （2.4% vs. 1.8%）, and severe postpartum hemorrhage （2.8% vs. 1.9%） was significantly increased compared with the control group （P 〈 0.05）. In the study group, the cesarean section rate during primipara was significantly reduced compared with the control group （42.0% vs. 44.2%）. However, the rate during inultipara was significantly increased compared with the control group （P 〈 0.05）. Indications for cesarean section in the study group as well as the percentages of scared uterus and placenta previa were significantly increased compared with the control group （P 〈 0.05）. Conclusions： According to the current situation, better methods are needed to strengthen pregnancy and delivery management, reduce the rate of cesarean section, and ensure a positive outcome for mothers and babies.

New medical risks affecting obstetrics after implementation of the two-child policy in China

China recently instituted a two-child policy in response to its aging population, declining workforce and demographic dividend, and the need to develop asocial economy. Additionally, women generally delay having a second child because of the overwhelming pressure in their lives. With the improvements in assisted fertility technologies in recent years, the number of elderly women attempting to bear children has increased. The quality of woman＇s eggs and a man＇s sperm declined dramatically with increasing age, leading to an increased risk of pregnancy-related complications among older women. Therefore, the types of fertility problems experienced by elderly females must be provided with considerable attention by obstetricians. This commentary article focuses on the medical problems faced by older second-child pregnant women. This work discusses their increased rates of infertility, spontaneous abortion, fetal malformation, gestational diabetes, cesarean section, placenta previa, postpartum hemorrhage, postpartum depression, and hypertensive disorders, which complicate pregnancy.

二维斑点追踪成像技术在甲型流感相关心肌炎患儿左室功能评估中的价值

目的探讨二维斑点追踪成像技术在评估甲型流感相关心肌炎患儿左室功能和室壁运动障碍中的价值。方法选取30例甲流相关心肌炎患儿作为病例组,门诊正常体检患儿33例作为正常对照组,对其进行常规超声检查,并运用二维斑点追踪技术评价心功能及左室整体纵向应变,进行对比分析。结果30例心肌炎患儿年龄、体表面积、左心室舒张末期内径(LVIDd)、舒张末期室间隔厚度(IVSd)、舒张早期与舒张晚期二尖瓣血流速度比值(E/A)、CK-MB指标与正常对照组差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),病例组心率、血hsTnI指标高于对照组,左室射血分数LVEF、舒张早期二尖瓣环运动速度的比值(E/E’)以及左室整体收缩期应变峰值(GLPS)均低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。GLPS与LVEF呈显著的正相关,与IVSd呈显著的负相关,但与LVIDd、E/A、E/E’以及血hsTnI、CK-MB及心电指标相关性不明显。GLPS诊断小儿甲流相关心肌炎的最佳阈值为-19.9%。结论2 D-STE的左室长轴应变可较准确反映甲流病毒感染所致的心肌炎患儿的左室功能变化,可作为甲流相关心肌炎的早期诊断、随访及预后评估的一种简便安全、可靠的实用新手段。

生育政策放开对居民家庭负债的影响研究——以全面二孩政策实施效果为例

近年来,我国的生育政策不断宽松,从“单独二孩”到“全面二孩”,再到“三孩”政策,由此带来的家庭支出增加可能进一步传导至居民家庭负债增加。基于我国2016年放开“全面二孩”的政策实践,利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,使用双重差分方法和截断回归模型,研究该政策对我国居民家庭负债的影响。研究发现,“全面二孩”政策的实施显著增加了居民家庭持有负债的概率。边际效应的计算显示,当家庭受到全面“二孩”政策影响时,家庭持有负债的概率平均增加6%。据此提出,解决人口问题不仅需要宽松的生育政策,更需要在生育政策外下功夫。从居民家庭负债视角来看,更切实的支持和补贴政策是发挥生育政策作用的关键。

父母心理弹性对多孩家庭关系的影响——以二孩家庭为例

目的:通过实证调查掌握二孩家庭父母心理弹性的现状,探索心理弹性对家庭关系的影响。方法:编制“二孩家庭关系及心理弹性量表”,采用随机抽样调查,回收调查问卷908份,并采用SPSS25.0进行因子分析、信效度检验、差异检验、相关分析、回归分析等。结果:心理弹性因子在经济感知、工作类型、性别、家庭养育方式上呈现显著差异(P<0.01,0.05);父母心理弹性与家庭关系呈现显著相关(P<0.01);二孩家庭高弹组在家庭关系各维度上显著高于低弹组(P=0.001);弹性总分、抗挫力、能力感、掌控感、求助力、适应性、经济感知因素显著影响家庭关系(P<0.05)。结论:二孩家庭父母的信念感、掌控感较高,支持感最低;稳定的工作、良好的收入及祖辈的支持可以提升二孩家庭的父母心理弹性;夫妻关系是影响多孩生育的核心因素;父母心理弹性与家庭关系相互影响,相互作用。

多方法集成的双座椅童车设计研究

目的为解决二孩家庭在使用童车过程中的痛点(如出行费时费力,无法兼顾两名儿童等)问题,梳理用户需求,提出了集成多模态平衡(VACP)/层次分析法(AHP)/质量功能配置(QFD)的二孩童车设计研究。方法首先,通过实地调研与问卷调查提取二孩出行用户旅程图,基于VACP理论进行童车设计需求的量化与初步筛选,在此基础上应用AHP分析需求权重,确定用户需求重要度;其次,运用QFD确立用户需求与质量特性关系,将设计要素进行聚合性优化,明确设计要求并得到优化方案;最后,利用JACK建立童车虚拟环境以验证方案合理性。结果针对二孩家庭特殊出行场景,设计座椅结构可调整以增强童车安全性、便捷性;设计智能监测交互功能增强童车互动性。结论通过JACK仿真验证了创新设计方案的科学性,从侧面印证多方法集成设计方法的可行性,为构建童车产品提供依据与理论创新。

农村二孩家庭男孩偏好对长姐体质健康的影响研究

基于资源分配理论,选用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010-2018年数据,考察了农村二孩家庭中男孩偏好对长姐体质健康的影响及内在机制。研究发现:男孩偏好对长姐体质健康具有显著负向影响,相比有妹妹,有弟弟的长姐身高Z评分将降低0.254个单位,表现出发育迟缓和消瘦的概率比正常组将分别提高5%和2%,但与肥胖不存在显著关联。性别平等感知在男孩偏好与长姐体质健康关系中发挥调节效应,父母感知到的社会性别平等越弱,男孩偏好对长姐体质健康的不利影响越强。男孩偏好对长姐体质健康的影响存在异质性,长姐处于学龄期、二孩处于学龄前和父亲出生队列较早时,男孩偏好对长姐体质健康将产生更不利的影响。未来应结合我国农村地区重男轻女的社会环境,在保证儿童福利有效供给的基础上,发展以家庭为核心的福利政策,全面构建普惠型儿童福利支持体系。

全面二孩政策下开封市儿科护士心理压力现状调查、影响因素及对策

目的探讨全面二孩政策下开封市儿科护士心理压力现状、影响因素及对策。方法选取2020年1月至2022年1月开封市108名儿科护士作为研究对象。采用中国护士工作压力量表进行调查,分析儿科护士心理压力现状、对策,并进行单因素分析与Logistic多因素回归分析。结果108名儿科护士中,有心理压力者占79.63%。有心理压力组在工作年限、学历、是否生育、职称、轮班次数、睡眠时间、月收入及护患压力方面与无心理压力组存在差异(P<0.05)。Logistic多因素分析结果显示,工作年限1~5年、大专学历、已生育、主管护师及以上职称、轮班次数>10次/月、睡眠时间<7 h、月收入<5000元、护患压力是影响儿科护士心理压力的独立危险因素。结论开封市儿科护士的心理压力较大,影响因素包括工作年限、学历、生育情况、职称、轮班次数、睡眠时间、月收入、护患压力等。

“全面二孩”政策如何影响家庭教育支出——基于《中国家庭追踪调查》数据的实证研究

“全面二孩”政策会改变家庭人口结构,进而影响家庭教育支出决策。文章以“全面二孩”政策的实施作为自然实验,基于《中国家庭追踪调查》数据,使用双重差分模型,研究子女出生对于家庭教育支出的影响,并进一步讨论母亲的受教育程度及母亲就业情况对于家庭教育支出的异质性影响。研究发现:“全面二孩”政策会增加家庭教育支出;且母亲受教育程度越高的家庭更愿意增加孩子的教育投资;相较于母亲无业的二孩家庭,母亲有工作的家庭也更愿意增加家庭教育支出。

Population ageing and the impacts of the universal two-child policy on China’s socio-economy

The two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan and approved in March 2016.This article provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by ageing with sub-replacement fertility.It argues that the universal two-child policy is timely and necessary for the New Normal economy.The policy has significance in relieving socio-economic pressure and promoting economic growth,for which it is not only a necessary premise but also a sufficient condition.Having reviewed the evolution of the demographic transition theory,this research undertakes a comparative analysis of different stages of demographic transition in different regions across the world.It further investigates the three stages of successful demographic transition in China.The universally adopted two-child policy,as it meets the requirements of demographic transition,is also inevitable for socio-economic development.

From“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy:Will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

With the rapid population aging,the payment crisis of China’s pension insurance fund is increasing yearly.The government adjusts fertility policy to alleviate population aging and improve the solvency of pension insurance fund.On January1,2016,China’s fertility policy was adjusted from“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy.This paper establishes actuarial models to analyze how fertility policy adjustment influences the pension insurance fund and concludes as follows:(1)if the“one-child policy”were still employed,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would appear in the year of 2076;(2)if all couples that satisfy the rules of“selective two-child policy”bear the second child,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would be postponed by about 9 years;(3)after implementing universal two-child policy,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would delay under different situations of fertility intentions,if more than 54% of the qualified couples bear a second child,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would not appear before 2090.The above conclusions have passed the sensitivity tests.Therefore,“two-child policy”can alleviate the payment pressure of pension insurance fund.If the government wants to solve the payment crisis of pension insurance fund,fertility intentions should be improved.

The Impacts of the Universal Two-Child Policy on China's Population

The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey,this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy.The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17.2 million in the years 2017-2021,with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1.6 to 4.7 million.This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1.6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level,and then dropping to a projected 1.7.With the universal two-child policy in place,China's total population will grow to about 1.45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking.The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained,with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15-59 in 2050.With implementation of China's new fertility policy,an estimated 34%of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050,almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued.