Probabilistic Analysis of Slope Using Finite Element Approach and Limit Equilibrium Approach around Amalpata Landslide of West Central, Nepal

The stability study of the ongoing and recurring Amalpata landslide in Baglung in Nepal’s Gandaki Province is presented in this research. The impacted slope is around 200 meters high, with two terraces that have different slope inclinations. The lower bench, located above the basement, consistently fails and sets others up for failure. The fluctuating water level of the slope, which travels down the slope masses, exacerbates the slide problem. The majority of these rocks are Amalpata landslide area experiences several structural disruptions. The area’s stability must be evaluated in order to prevent and control more harm from occurring to the nearby agricultural land and people living along the slope. The slopes’ failures increase the damages of house existing in nearby area and the erosion of the slope. Two modeling techniques the finite element approach and the limit equilibrium method were used to simulate the slope. The findings show that, in every case, the terrace above the basement is where the majority of the stress is concentrated, with a safety factor of near unity. Using probabilistic slope stability analysis, the failure probability was predicted to be between 98.90% and 100%.

Hydrochemistry of Rara Lake: A Ramsar lake from the southern slope of the central Himalayas,Nepal

High-altitude Himalayan lakes act as natural storage for environmental evidence related to climate change and environmental factors.A great number of lakes are distributed in the southern slope area of the central Himalayas;however,research concerning the hydrochemical processes of these lakes is still insufficient.Herein,we present a comprehensive study on the water chemistry of the lake waters and the inlet stream waters from Rara Lake in western Nepal based upon samples collected in November 2018.The p H,dissolved oxygen,chlorophyll-aconcentration(chl-a),water temperature,electric conductivity(EC)and total dissolved solids(TDS)were measured in situ,and the concentrations of major ions(Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+),K^(+),Na^(+),Cl^(-),SO_(4)^(2-),and NO_(3)^(-))were analyzed in the laboratory.The results revealed that the water in Rara Lake is slightly alkaline,with p H values ranging from 7.6-7.98.The cations,in decreasing order of concentration in the lake water,are Ca^(2+)>Mg^(2+)>K^(+)>Na^(+)with average concentrations of20.64 mg·L^(-1),11.78 mg·L^(-1),1.48 mg·L^(-1) and 0.72 mg·L^(-1),respectively;the order and concentrations for the anions is HCO_(3)^(-)>SO_(4)^(2-)>Cl^(-)>NO_(3)^(-),with average concentrations of 122.15 mg·L-1,2.15 mg·L-1,0.46mg·L-1 and 0.55 mg·L-1,respectively.The dominant cation and anion in the lake water are Ca2+and HCO3-and they account for 48.14%and 71.8%of the totals,respectively.The range of lake water TDS is from 95mg·L^(-1) to 98 mg·L^(-1),with an average of 96.85 mg·L^(-1).The high ratio of(Ca^(2+)+Mg^(2+))to total cations and the low ratio of(Na^(+)+K^(+))to total cations indicate that Rara Lake receives ions from rock weathering,especially from carbonate rocks.Similarly,Gibbs boomerang diagrams and Piper diagrams also support the hydrochemistry of Rara Lake as being dominated by rock-weathering patterns.Likewise,other statistical analysis tools,such as Principal Component Analysis(PCA)and correlation strongly suggest the dominance of weathering of calcium and magnesium bicarbonate rocks as the major source of ions in Rara Lake.However,several traces of anthropogenic inputs into the lake were noticed,and the hypolimnion in the lake appears to be oxygen deficient,which may not be an issue at present but cannot be ignored in the future.

Fluvial Geomorphology and Basin Development of Karra Khola Basin, Hetauda, Central Nepal

Geomorphological study of a basin is important for understanding theoverall basin characteristics which are helpful for the management of waterresources, construction along the river bank and natural hazard mitigationwithin the area. The study was carried out in the Karra Khola Basin, oneof the prominent basins in the Eastern extreme of the Hetauda Dun Valley,Central Nepal, to investigate geomorphic characteristics of the mainstream of the basin, categorize them into various stream types and studybasin development through drainage basin’s morphometric parameters.Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote sensing techniquesusing satellite images were used as a tool to make the morphometricanalysis of the basin along with its major 13 sub-basin and delineate streamclassification following the Rosgen’s Level I hierarchical inventory. Themain stream of the Karra Khola is characterized as A-, B- and C-typeand the tributaries segments as B- and F-type. The basin is structurallyunaffected and has the permeable surface area and elongated shape. Thehypsometric analysis indicates that the basin is mostly at the old stage ofgeomorphic development while four out of 13 sub-basin being at maturestage. The Karra Khola sub-basin have higher risk to flash flooding(Lg=0.1-0.16km). Drainage density value reveals that the basin is highlysusceptible to flooding, gully erosion, etc. Similarly, dissection index valueimplies that the north eastern region of the basin is highly vulnerable toerosion as it at the younger stage of geomorphic development. Since thestudy area is highly sensitive to future natural hazards, further study andappropriate measures should be followed for safeguarding against thefuture risk along the Karra Khola basin and its tributaries.

Numerical analysis of surface subsidence in asymmetric parallel highway tunnels

Tunnelling related hazards are very common in the Himalayan terrain and a number of such instances have been reported. Several twin tunnels are being planned for transportation purposes which will require good understanding for prediction of tunnel deformation and surface settlement during the engineering life of the structure. The deformational behaviour, design of sequential excavation and support of any jointed rock mass are challenging during underground construction. We have raised several commonly assumed issues while performing stability analysis of underground opening at shallow depth. For this purpose, Kainchi-mod Nerchowck twin tunnels(Himachal Pradesh, India) are taken for in-depth analysis of the stability of two asymmetric tunnels to address the influence of topography, twin tunnel dimension and geometry. The host rock encountered during excavation is composed mainly of moderately to highly jointed grey sandstone, maroon sandstone and siltstones. In contrast to equidimensional tunnels where the maximum subsidence is observed vertically above the centreline of the tunnel, the result from the present study shows shifting of the maximum subsidence away from the tunnel centreline. The maximum subsidence of 0.99 mm is observed at 4.54 m left to the escape tunnel centreline whereas the maximum subsidence of 3.14 mm is observed at 8.89 m right to the main tunnel centreline. This shifting clearly indicates the influence of undulating topography and inequidimensional noncircular tunnel.

Landslide susceptibility assessment of the region affected by the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake of Nepal

Nepal was hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on 25^(th) April,2015.The main shock and many large aftershocks generated a large number of coseismic landslips in central Nepal.We have developed a landslide susceptibility map of the affected region based on the coseismic landslides collected from remotely sensed data and fieldwork,using bivariate statistical model with different landslide causative factors.From the investigation,it is observed that most of the coseismic landslides are independent of previous landslides.Out of 3,716 mapped landslides,we used 80% of them to develop a susceptibility map and the remaining 20% were taken for validating the model.A total of 11 different landslide-influencing parameters were considered.These include slope gradient,slope aspect,plan curvature,elevation,relative relief,Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA),distance from epicenters of the mainshock and major aftershocks,lithology,distance of the landslide from the fault,fold,and drainage line.The success rate of 87.66% and the prediction rate of86.87% indicate that the model is in good agreement between the developed susceptibility map and theexisting landslides data.PGA,lithology,slope angle and elevation have played a major role in triggering the coseismic mass movements.This susceptibility map can be used for relocating the people in the affected regions as well as for future land development.

Control of rock joint parameters on deformation of tunnel opening

In this paper, stress behavior of shallow tunnels under simultaneous non-uniform surface traction and symmetric gravity loading was studied using a direct boundary element method（BEM）. The existing fullplane elastostatic fundamental solutions to displacement and stress fields were used and implemented in a developed algorithm. The cross-section of the tunnel was considered in circular, square, and horseshoe shapes and the lateral coefficient of the domain was assumed as unit quantity. Double-node procedure of the BEM was applied at the corners to improve the model including sudden traction changes. The results showed that the method used was a powerful tool for modeling underground openings under various external as well as internal loads. Eccentric loads significantly influenced the stress pattern of the surrounding tunnel. The achievements can be practically used in completing and modifying regulations for stability investigation of shallow tunnels.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping along Bhalubang–Shiwapur Area of Mid-Western Nepal Using Frequency Ratio and Conditional Probability Models

Roads constructed in fragile Siwaliks are prone to large number of instabilities. Bhalubang–Shiwapur section of Mahendra Highway lying in Western Nepal is one of them. To understand the landslide causative factor and to predict future occurrence of the landslides, landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) of this region was carried out using frequency ratio(FR) and weights-of-evidence(W of E) models. These models are easy to apply and give good results. For this, landslide inventory map of the area was prepared based on the aerial photo interpretation, from previously published/unpublished reposts, and detailed field survey using GPS. About 332 landslides were identified and mapped, among which 226(70%) were randomly selected for model training and the remaining 106(30%) were used for validation purpose. A spatial database was constructed from topographic, geological, and land cover maps. The reclassified maps based on the weight values of frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence were applied to get final susceptibility maps. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps were verified andcompared with the training data, as well as with the validation data. From the analysis, it is seen that both the models were equally capable of predicting landslide susceptibility of the region(W of E model(success rate = 83.39%, prediction rate = 79.59%); FR model(success rate = 83.31%, prediction rate = 78.58%)). In addition, it was observed that the distance from highway and lithology, followed by distance from drainage, slope curvature, and slope gradient played major role in the formation of landsides. The landslide susceptibility maps thus produced can serve as basic tools for planners and engineers to carry out further development works in this landslide prone area.

Estimation of Shear Wave Structure and Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio at Different Sites in Kathmandu Valley

The present study was carried out to evaluate resonant frequency of the ground and to characterize subsurface ground based on shear wave velocity structure. For this, five sites were selected such as Pulchowk, Chhauni, Gaushala, Buddhanagar and Bhainsepati. About 20 data were recorded in each site and then shear wave velocity structure and graph of amplification ratio with their spatial distribution has been established with the help of software i.e. Seisimager/Seismodule Controller. The results of both analysis methods were then compared to the amplitude of the Gorkha Earthquake and borehole data. All these data and study indicates that the Kathmandu Valley sediments are dependent on the frequency of the seismic waves and the wave velocity is greater in the peripheral region than in the central part of the Valley. The result had also shown that the presence of silty-sand, clay and loose gravel soil with low bearing capacity and elastic modulus in most of the sites are responsible for devastation. It was also noted that apart from few limitations, a non-intrusive microtremor analysis can be adopted for earthquake site characterization in the Kathmandu Valley which can be readily applied and expanded upon in future seismic hazard and microzonation efforts for Kathmandu.

Landslide susceptibility assessment at Kathmandu Kyirong Highway Corridor in pre-quake, co-seismic and post-quake situations

Kathmandu Kyirong Highway(KKH)is one of the most strategic Sino-Nepal highways.Lowcost mitigation measures are common in Nepalese highways,however,they are not even applied sufficiently to control slope instability since the major part of this highway falls still under the category of feeder road,and thus less resources are made available for its maintenance.It is subjected to frequent landslide events in an annual basis,especially during monsoon season.The Gorkha earthquake,2015 further mobilized substantial hillslope materials and damaged the road in several locations.The aim of this research is to access the dynamic landslide susceptibility considering pre,co and post seismic mass failures.We mapped 5,349 multi-temporal landslides of 15 years(2004-2018),using high resolution satellite images and field data,and grouped them in aforementioned three time periods.Landslide susceptibility was assessed with the application of’certainty factor’(CF).Seventy percent landslides were used for susceptibility modelling and 30%for validation.The obtained results were evaluated by plotting’receiver operative characteristic’(ROC)curves.The CF performed well with the’area under curve’(AUC)0.820,0.875 and 0.817 for the success rates,and 0.809,0.890 and 0.760 for the prediction rates for respective pre,co and post seismic landslide susceptibility.The accuracy for seismic landslide susceptibility was better than pre and post-quake ones.It might be because of the differences on completeness of the landslide inventory,which might have been possibly done better for the single event based co-seismic landslide mapping in comparison with multitemporal inventories in pre and post-quake situations.The results obtained in this study provide insights on dynamic spatial probability of landslide occurrences in the changing condition of triggering agents.This work can be a good contribution to the methodologies for the evaluation of the dynamic landslide hazard and risk,which will further help to design the efficient mitigation measures along the mountain highways.

珠穆朗玛峰北坡桤木属大气花粉传输路径与来源

认识区域大气花粉组成及其形成条件有利于明确不同类型花粉组合的气候与环境意义。利用布卡大气花粉采样器在珠穆朗玛峰北坡开展了连续2年(2012—2013年)的大气花粉观测研究。基于后向轨迹和潜在来源区域模型,探讨了秋季主要组分桤木属花粉的传输路径与潜在来源区域,分析了桤木属花粉与其植物分布和大气环流的关系及气候指示意义。结果显示:(1)桤木属花粉季气团传输路径主要来自于采样点西南方向;(2)桤木属花粉潜在来源区域与其气团传输路径基本一致,主要是喜马拉雅山脉中段,包括尼泊尔中部和东部以及西藏南部等地区;(3)桤木属花粉数量、传输路径和来源区域的年际变化与大气环流有关,受高空西风影响的西南气团对桤木属花粉影响更大。研究结果可以为认识珠穆朗玛峰北坡外来花粉的气候意义提供科学依据。