Modeling and forecasting time series of precious metals:a new approach to multifractal data

We introduce a novel approach to multifractal data in order to achieve transcended modeling and forecasting performances by extracting time series out of local Hurst exponent calculations at a specified scale.First,the long range and co-movement dependencies of the time series are scrutinized on time-frequency space using multiple wavelet coherence analysis.Then,the multifractal behaviors of the series are verified by multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis and its local Hurst exponents are calculated.Additionally,root mean squares of residuals at the specified scale are procured from an intermediate step during local Hurst exponent calculations.These internally calculated series have been used to estimate the process with vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(VARFIMA)model and forecasted accordingly.In our study,the daily prices of gold,silver and platinum are used for assessment.The results have shown that all metals do behave in phase movement on long term periods and possess multifractal features.Furthermore,the intermediate time series obtained during local Hurst exponent calculations still appertain the co-movement as well as multifractal characteristics of the raw data and may be successfully re-scaled,modeled and forecasted by using VARFIMA model.Conclusively,VARFIMA model have notably surpassed its univariate counterpart(ARFIMA)in all efficacious trials while re-emphasizing the importance of comovement procurement in modeling.Our study’s novelty lies in using a multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis,along with multiple wavelet coherence analysis,for forecasting purposes to an extent not seen before.The results will be of particular significance to finance researchers and practitioners.

Evaluation of Potency and Mineral Reserve Balance for Sustainable Mining Management--Case Study:Central Java Province of Indonesia

The level of availability and scarcity of resources gives an indication of how to manage scarce resources.Good mining practice supports sustainability and minimizes environmental degradation.One alternative to support the development of potential mineral resources is the study of mineral resource balances.The research objectives are:(a)to evaluate the potential of mineral resources and reserves,(b)to evaluate the production data of mineral commodities,(c)to calculate mineral reserve balance.Research methodology includes an inventory of data in the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources.Compilation of mineral resource balance adjusted to the applicable regulations.The study was conducted in the Central Java Province of Indonesia.Based on the evaluation results there were 26 mineral commodities,but there were only 12 commodities developed during 2016-2018.These resources are andesite,limestone,basalt,fill-dirt,sandstone,trass,feldspar,quartz-sand,marble,diorite stone,talk and claystone.The mineral reserve supports the construction of highways,airports and other infrastructure projects in Central Java Province of Indonesia.

The analysis of determinants of going concern audit report

Going concern is one of essential things for user to make a financial decision. This research aims to explore factors that caused the issuance of going concern audit report by auditor. This research adds two new variables, audit size and audit committee, besides the other factors that cause auditor issue a going concern audit report. This research uses a regression logistic analysis to determine the relationship of each variable （liquidity, solvability, profitability, cash flow, audit firm size and audit committee） to going concern audit report. Different from previous researches, the results of this research show that liquidity, profitability, cash flow, and audit committee are not significant to influence the issuance of audit opinion. Audit size has a more significant relationship to audit opinion, while solvability is the most significant factor.

Economic Valuation of Emission Impact Reduction by Using Alternative Path in Yogyakarta Urban Area, Indonesia

The urban economic development needs transportation facilities. People move form one location to the other rapidly. The amount of vehicle increases, it also increases lead content in the air. The human health cost increases as lead content in the air increases. The reduction of lead content for 10 percent, it gives economic value as much as Rp. 11.828.365.993,- （US$ 985,697.17）. And if lead content decreases for 25 percent, it yields economic benefit as much as Rp. 34.509.073.173, - （US$ 2,875,765.10）. The analysis of benefit uses exposure-response function method. Analysis of people awareness for keeping the environment uses contingent valuation method survey and willingness to pay. People awareness to keep their environment and to decrease lead content is not good enough, despite the fact that there is some increase of awareness, for example the awareness of using alternative path- through ring road on peak hours.

Assumptions of Economic Model for Sustainable Productions of Beekeeping in the Bosnia and Hercegovina

Production of bee products using standards of Modern technology requires high specialization and high productivity of labor adequate facilities and equipment, and coordination of natural bee potential with production characteristics of the wider region. Effectively beekeeping today means using several pastures per year with a yield of 50-60 kg per hive. Mobile beekeeping is the only way to achieve high yields of production and it has considerable advantage over stationary one which is less rentable. Mobile beekeeping require higher investments and labor but with good climate and ecological conditions, one can achieve several times higher income than in stationary beekeeping. Some of the success in mobile beekeeping depends of the selection of hives. The hives must be designed to give the bees the best environment for work and development to be most efficient. Data was collected from 57 beekeepers that live in the district. Data analysis was conducted by using standard statistical and economic processes. Criteria for a recommended for the proposed beekeeping model were incomes and profit per hive. For effective beekeeping and production of bee products, especially honey, beekeeper must have adequate equipment and a good bee hives. Beekeeper must have transportation and additional equipment because their movement depends season on the season and distance to pasture.

Analysis of Consumer Behavior in Regard to the Beef Meat in Kosovo

In this study, consumer’s behavior in the Kosovo in respect to beef meat was studied using different socio-economic variables assessed by so-called evaluation criteria as: “very important”, “important”, “same”, and “less important”. The overall objective of the study was to analyze the consumer behavior in regard to beef meat in Kosovo and possibly identify effects of different variables on consumer decision upon purchase of beef meat. Beef meat was perceived differently at various types of purchasing places. Important socio-economic variables explaining individual respondent differences in consumer behaviors regarding purchase of beef meat involved in our study were: price, label, package, quality, trust, and origin of the product, gender of consumer, monthly family income, family member size, employment status of respondents, different regions in Kosovo. Perceived quality, price and trust of the beef meat product were significantly more important (P < 0.05) than all other characteristics no matter of gender, family size, respondent region, monthly economic income or other issues. Supermarkets and retail story’s are the preferred place for buying beef meat for all family size groups ranging from 46.10% - 72.06%, respectively. Conclusions derived from the analysis suggest that assessment of consumer’s behavior through evaluation criteria can contribute to a better understanding of consumer behavior in respect of beef meat and will have positive impact and improve linkages between farmers, traders, processors and consumers as last part of this chain in Kosovo.

Linking Environmental Water Scarcity and Options for Adaptation in the MENA Region

Contamination of surface and underground water by sea level rise, surface runoff, and land use activities such as industrial and agricultural activities can lead to water scarcity. Water could be available and accessible but not suitable for human use. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries, the agriculture sector depends massively on water for farming activities, which consumes about 80% of the available water resources. In this context, the issue of environmental water scarcity is under highlighted, though the use of this term itself is still lacking in an international context (FAO). Meanwhile, the international goal of universal access to clean freshwater is included in global development targets (SDGs). This study provides some insights and deepens our understanding on environmental water scarcity, particularly MEN-A region countries. This review paper begins with an introduction to water scarcity and continues with a discussion of environmental issues associated with water scarcity in MENA region countries. Finally, we suggest some adaptive measures in two distinct areas such as agriculture sectors and policy makers and conclude that the lack of implementation of this particular term is hindering sustainable development in MENA region countries.

Post-mining Water Management Using Macrophytes and Substrate Media

Feldspar mine may cause environmental problem.Post-mining lake water pollute the environment because it has a low pH containing heavy metals such as aluminium(Al).The research objective was to analyze the effectiveness of water quality changes using Eichorniasp and Thypaangustifolia plants with organic substrates,and to analyze the results of water quality management based on wastewater quality standards.The results showed that the treatment using water from pit lake+material pit lake+clumps of Thypaangustifolia+organic substrate was declared effective in increasing pH and reducing TSS and dissolved metals at 15 days of treatment,indicated by a pH value of 6.7-7.04,a TSS value of 1,710 mg/l to 108 mg/l,and decreased grade Al from 233.0975 mg/l to 190.77 mg/l.The quality standard for Al dissolved metal management has not reached the waste water quality standard,while the results of pH and TSS management are in accordance with the quality standards stipulated with the provisions concerning the wastewater quality standard.

Stepwise multiple regression method of greenhouse gas emission modeling in the energy sector in Poland

The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas（GHG） emissions. Poland,among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO2 emissions demonstrate a high relationship（0.97） with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH4 emission, indicated the presence of hard coal（0.66）, peat and fuel wood（0.34）, solid waste fuels, as well as other sources（- 0.64） as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R2= 0.90. For N2 O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N2 O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption.