Real-time prediction of earthquake potential damage:A case study for the January 8,2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai,China

It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of sites.The EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential damage.Within the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain degree.Hence,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future earthquakes.Meanwhile,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.

High-precision relocation of the aftershock sequence of the January 8,2022,M_(S)6.9 Menyuan earthquake

The 2022 Menyuan M_(S)6.9 earthquake,which occurred on January 8,is the most destructive earthquake to occur near the Lenglongling(LLL)fault since the 2016 Menyuan M_(S)6.4 earthquake.We relocated the mainshock and aftershocks with phase arrival time observations for three days after the mainshock from the Qinghai Seismic Network using the double-difference method.The total length and width of the aftershock sequence are approximately 32 km and 5 km,respectively,and the aftershocks are mainly concentrated at a depth of 7-12 km.The relocated sequence can be divided into 18 km west and 13 km east segments with a boundary approximately 5 km east of the mainshock,where aftershocks are sparse.The east and west fault structures revealed by aftershock locations differ significantly.The west fault strikes EW and inclines to the south at a 71°-90°angle,whereas the east fault strikes 133°and has a smaller dip angle.Elastic strain accumulates at conjunctions of faults with different slip rates where it is prone to large earthquakes.Based on surface traces of faults,the distribution of relocated earthquake sequence and surface ruptures,the mainshock was determined to have occurred at the conjunction of the Tuolaishan(TLS)fault and LLL fault,and the west and east segments of the aftershock sequence were on the TLS fault and LLL fault,respectively.Aftershocks migrate in the early and late stages of the earthquake sequence.In the first 1.5 h after the mainshock,aftershocks expand westward from the mainshock.In the late stage,seismicity on the northeast side of the east fault is higher than that in other regions.The migration rate of the west segment of the aftershock sequence is approximately 4.5 km/decade and the afterslip may exist in the source region.

Surface Wave Group Velocity Tomography Imaging from Ambient Noise for Fujian Province and Its Adjacent Areas

Two-month continuous waveforms of 108 broadband seismic stations in Fujian Province and its adjacent areas are used to compute noise cross-correlation function(NCF). The signal quality of NCF is improved via the application of time-frequency phase weighted stacking. The Rayleigh and Love waves group velocities between 1 s-20 s are measured on the symmetrical component of the NCF with the multiple filter method. More than 5,000 Rayleigh wave dispersion curves and about 4,000 Love wave dispersion curves are obtained and used to invert for group velocity maps. This data set provides about 50 km resolution that is demonstrated with checkerboard tests. Considering the off great circle effect in inhomogeneous medium, the ray path is traced based on the travel time field computed with a finite difference method. The inverted group velocity maps show good correlation with the geological features in the upper and middle crust. The Fuzhou basin and Zhangzhou basin showed low velocity on the short period group velocity maps. On the long period group velocity maps, the low velocity anomaly in the high heat flow region near Zhangzhou and clear velocity contrast across the Zhenghe-Dapu faults, which suggests that the Zhenghe-Dapu fault might be a deep fault.

Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake pre- diction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

Experiments on Exploration of Shallow Fine Structures and the Construction of the 1-D Velocity Model in the Pingtan Island,Fujian

112 short-period seismographs were set up in the 400 km^2 area of Pingtan Island and its surrounding areas in Fujian.The combined observations of the airgun source and ambient noise source were carried out using a dense array to receive the 387 airgun signals excited around the island and one month of continuous ambient noise recording.The 1-D P-wave and S-wave shallow velocity model of Pingtan Island is obtained by the inversion of the airgun body wave’s first arrival time data,and the reliability of the velocity model is verified by using the surface wave phase velocity dispersion curve,which can provide initial model for subsequent 3-D imaging.The experimental results show that this experiment is a successful demonstration of local scale green non-destructive detection,which can provide basic data for shallow surface structure research and strong vibration simulation of the Pingtan Island.

Some Thoughts on the Earthquake Science Experimental Site——The Underground Cloud Map

The Western Yunnan Earthquake Predication Test Site set up jointly by the China Earthquake Administration,the National Science Foundation Commission of America,and United States Geological Survey has played an important role in development of early earthquake research work in China. Due to various objective reasons, most of the predicted targets in the earthquake prediction test site have not been achieved,and the development has been hindered. In recent years, the experiment site has been reconsidered,and renamed the "Earthquake Science Experimental Site". Combined with the current development of seismology and the practical needs of disaster prevention and mitigation,we propose adding the "Underground Cloud Map"as the new direction of the experimental site. Using highly repeatable, environmentally friendly and safe airgun sources,we could send constant seismic signals,which realizes continuous monitoring of subsurface velocity changes. Utilizing the high-resolution 3-D crustal structure from ambient noise tomography,we could obtain 4-D (3-D space+1-D time) images of subsurface structures, which we termed the "Underground Cloud Map". The"Underground Cloud Map" can reflect underground velocity and stress changes,providing new means for the earthquake monitoring forecast nationwide,which promotes the conversion of experience-based earthquake prediction to physics-based prediction.

Attenuation Characteristics of Earthquake Ground Motion for Large Volume Airgun

In order to further deepen the understanding of seismic wave propagation characteristics induced by the large volume airgun source,experimental data from multiple fixed excitation points in Fujian Province were used to obtain the equivalent single excitation high signal-to-noise ratio velocity and displacement records through linear stacking and simulation techniques.Then the peak displacements of different epicentral distances were used to calculate the equivalent magnitude of the airgun source excitation at different fixed excitation points so as to establish the attenuation relationship between equivalent magnitude,epicenter distance and velocity peak.Our results show that:①Within 270 km of epicentral distance,for the large-volume airgun’s single shot,the peak velocity range is about 700-4 nm/s,and the peak displacement range is about 200.0-0.2 nm;②The equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 8,000 in 3 is 0.181-0.760,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0.294-0.832.By contrast,the equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 12,000 in 3 is 0.533-0.896,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0.611-0.946.The S-wave energy is greater than the P-wave energy,and the excitation efficiency varies greatly with different excitation environment;③The peak velocity increases with the equivalent magnitude,and decreases with the epicentral distance.The vertical component of the P-wave peak velocity is the largest among those three components,while the S-wave has the smallest vertical component and similar horizontal components.Hence,our research can provide an important basis for the quantitative judgment of the seismic wave propagation distance using the airgun and the design of the observation system in deep exploration or monitoring with airgun.

Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region＇s peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and pre- cisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real- time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

Probability Data Screening Method in Airgun Signal Processing Application

The signal excited by the airgun source is weak,and is easily affected by human motion noise,instrument failure,and earthquake and blasting events,resulting in insufficient utilization of the amplitude information of the airgun signal.The effective removal of interference and the preservation of true amplitude information of the signal is difficult in airgun signal processing.Based on the randomness of noise and the highly repetitive characteristics of airgun signals,we propose probability data screening method.The airgun data from experiments conducted in the Ansha Reservoir and Shanmei Reservoir in Fujian Province in June,2017 are taken as the research object to assess the effect in practical applications.The results show that the probability data screening method can automatically reject multiple interferences and effectively preserve the amplitude information of the signal by screening out large amplitude records in appropriate proportions.Compared with direct linear superposition,the probability-related linear superposition method can effectively reduce the impact of abnormal interference,and significantly improve the quality of the observed data.

Methods for estimating rotational components of seismic ground motion and their numerical comparisons

Rotational components play an important role in natural earthquake research,engineering seismic investigation,building monitoring,seismic exploration and other fields.Traditional researches mainly focus on three translational components,but less on rotational ones.As the precision of rotational sensing techniques has increased,many scholars have paid more attention to the seismic rotational motions.Because the rotational observations are not very popular before and now,approximately converting the translational components into rotational components is utilized in rotation analysis.Based on numerical six-component seismic data with the finite difference method,we compare three different conversion methods,the travelling-wave,frequency-domain and the difference method,to analyze their characteristics and feasibilities when they are applied to estimate rotational components with translational observations.

Analysis of the Frequency Domain Water-level Deconvolution Method Based on Reservoir Airgun Source Data

Based on the 2016 airgun experimental data of the Fujian Nanyi reservoir,we adopted the frequency domain water-level deconvolution method and cross-correlation time delay detection technique to study the influence of level scaling factor and the background noise level of the station on deconvolution calculation results, and analyze the effect of deconvolution on eliminating the influence of the source caused by different air-gun pressures. The results show that:( 1) When the level scaling factor is smaller,the signal to noise ratio of the waveform after the deconvolution is smaller,and when the level scaling factor is over smaller,the identification error of travel time is greater.( 2) When the SNR of the station record is higher,the recognition accuracy of travel time is higher,the influence of SNR on the reference station record is far greater than the far station,when the SNR of the far station record is more than 10,the error of travel time is within6 ms,but when the SNR of the reference station record is 30,the travel time error may reach to 20 ms.( 3) When the airgun source difference is big,the frequency domain waterlevel deconvolution method has better effect on eliminating the source influence,but the method error may be introduced when the source difference is small.

Review of the 2018 Palu Tsunami: Disaster Behavior and Reflections on Disaster Management

The 2018 Palu M_W7.5 earthquake and tsunami attracted geophysicists' attention for its strike slip focal mechanism and magnitude. We inspected the details of this disaster and discussed its particularity and possible causations. The submarine landslide and special terrain conditions could have contributed to the unusual size of the tsunami. The early warning system and the post disaster response is also reviewed. Efficient social warnings and broadcast systems along with good maintenance is essential. We also found that enhancing publics scientific literacy is the most important way to reduce disaster damage and casualties. Moreover, social conditions and rebuilding difficulties post tsunami are related as reference resources for future disaster management strategies.

Resonance Analysis in a High-Rise Building: Combined Translational and Rotational Measurements

0 INTRODUCTION Resonance frequency is an important indicator for structure health monitoring,which can be exacerbated by various natural forces,such as rainfall,earthquakes,and hurricanes(Wu et al.,2021;Shan et al.,2020;Gentile et al.,2016;Moser and Moaveni,2011).Clinton et al.(2006)found that changes in environmental factors could significantly affect the resonance frequency of the Millikan Library;and that compared with temperature,humidity and strong wind have greater impacts on resonance frequency.Additionally,some studies have confirmed the effects of environmental factors through mathematical statistical analyses,including Xia et al.(2006),Yuen and Kuok(2010),and Guéguen et al.(2017).Other studies(e.g.,Astorga et al.,2018)revealed a building’s self-healing ability,where the building’s resonance frequency drifts due to earthquake events,environmental factors,or random forced vibrations could gradually return to its original level,but the recovery time of frequency drift could be considerably different with respect to different environmental factors.