On January 1,2021,the newly revised Archives Law of the People's Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the new Archives Law)was officially implemented,providing legal protection for archive management,archi...On January 1,2021,the newly revised Archives Law of the People's Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the new Archives Law)was officially implemented,providing legal protection for archive management,archive work and archive undertaking in the new era.Starting from the relevant provisions of the new Archives Law,the collection of precious meteorological archives was discussed,and it is believed that only on the basis of clarifying the definition,collection responsibility subject,collection scope,ways and methods of precious meteorological archives can the relevant units be convenient to practice and obtain substantive collection effect.展开更多
Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events (RYEPEs) were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) during 1979-2016 applying the statistical percentile method. There were five types o...Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events (RYEPEs) were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) during 1979-2016 applying the statistical percentile method. There were five types of RYEPEs, namely Yangtze Meiyu (YM-RYEPE), Huaihe Meiyu (HM-RYEPE), southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu (SWNE-RYEPE) and typhoon I and II (TC-RYEPE) types of RYEPEs. Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV. As a result, the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events, about 16-21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm, occurred in the southern YHRV, particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area. There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979, with the submerged area exceeding 120 km2 as simulated by the FloodArea hydraulic model, comprising six HM-RYEPEs, five YM- RYEPEs, two TC-RYEPEs, and one SWNE-RYEPE. The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future. In the RCP6.0 (RCPS.5) scenario, the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km2 (10 yr)-t(24.67 km2 (10 yr)-1) from 2010 to 2100, and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km2(3.86 km2) to 9.00 kin2(13.51 km2). Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong, Lukou International Airport in Nanjing, Dongshan in Jiangning District, Lishui District and other low-lying areas. The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings, evacuation planning and risk analysis. More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population, industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.展开更多
Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(P...Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.展开更多
基金Supported by the Key Research and Development Planning Project of Anhui Province(2022h11020002).
文摘On January 1,2021,the newly revised Archives Law of the People's Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the new Archives Law)was officially implemented,providing legal protection for archive management,archive work and archive undertaking in the new era.Starting from the relevant provisions of the new Archives Law,the collection of precious meteorological archives was discussed,and it is believed that only on the basis of clarifying the definition,collection responsibility subject,collection scope,ways and methods of precious meteorological archives can the relevant units be convenient to practice and obtain substantive collection effect.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41205063 & 41330529)the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (Grant No. GYHY201506006)+1 种基金the Project of Development of Key Techniques in Meteorological Forecasting Operation (Grant No. CMAHX20160404)the Huaihe Basin Meteorological Research Foundation (Grant No. HRM201605)
文摘Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events (RYEPEs) were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) during 1979-2016 applying the statistical percentile method. There were five types of RYEPEs, namely Yangtze Meiyu (YM-RYEPE), Huaihe Meiyu (HM-RYEPE), southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu (SWNE-RYEPE) and typhoon I and II (TC-RYEPE) types of RYEPEs. Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV. As a result, the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events, about 16-21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm, occurred in the southern YHRV, particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area. There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979, with the submerged area exceeding 120 km2 as simulated by the FloodArea hydraulic model, comprising six HM-RYEPEs, five YM- RYEPEs, two TC-RYEPEs, and one SWNE-RYEPE. The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future. In the RCP6.0 (RCPS.5) scenario, the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km2 (10 yr)-t(24.67 km2 (10 yr)-1) from 2010 to 2100, and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km2(3.86 km2) to 9.00 kin2(13.51 km2). Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong, Lukou International Airport in Nanjing, Dongshan in Jiangning District, Lishui District and other low-lying areas. The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings, evacuation planning and risk analysis. More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population, industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.
基金supported by the Jianghuai Meteorological Joint Project of Anhui Natural Science Foundation (Grant No.2208085UQ12)。
文摘Warm-sector rainstorms are highly localized events, with weather systems and triggering mechanisms are not obvious,leading to limited forecasting capabilities in numerical models. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter(PSU-En KF) assimilation system and the regional mesoscale model WRF, this study conducted a simulation experiment assimilating all-sky infrared(IR)radiance for a warm-sector rainstorm in East China and investigated the positive impact of assimilating the Himawari-8 moisture channel all-sky IR radiance on the forecast of the rainstorm. Results indicate that hourly cycling assimilation of all-sky IR radiance can significantly improve the forecast accuracy of this warm-sector rainstorm. There is a notable increase in the Threat Score(TS), with the simulated location and intensity of the 3-hour precipitation aligning more closely with observations. These improvements result from the assimilation of cloud-affected radiance, which introduces more mesoscale convective information into the model's initial fields. The adjustments include enhancements to the moisture field, such as increased humidity and moisture transport, and modifications to the wind field, including the intrusion of mid-level cold air and the strengthening of lowlevel convergent shear. These factors are critical in improving the forecast of this warm-sector rainstorm event.