Preliminary Exploration on Socialization of Meteorological Services

Socialization of meteorological services is important guarantee of servicing national major development strategy,strategic selection of adapting to national reform,urgent need of meeting the development of related industries,and necessary way of solving public demand on meticulous,targeted and personalized meteorological services. At present,socialization construction of meteorological services in China still has many problems,such as weak service capability of intelligent weather,inadequate and imbalanced urban-rural and regional development,insufficient sharing and opening of meteorological data,and deficient role of social organization. It should vigorously impel socialization of meteorological services by exploring sharing and opening mechanism of basic meteorological data,establishing policy,regulation and standard system adapting to socialization of meteorological services,establishing operation mechanism for socialization of meteorological services of government dominance combining market,enriching content and means of meteorological socialization service.

Change Characteristics and Forecast Research of Road Surface Temperature on Huyu Expressway (Hubei Section)

In this paper,the monitoring data of road surface temperature,air temperature,wind speed,wind direction,relative humidity and precipitation from the automatic weather stations of Hurongxi,Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang on Huyu expressway from June 2013 to August 2014 were used to investigate the change characteristics of different sections' road surface temperatures in different seasons and sky conditions. The forecast models of the maximum and minimum road surface temperatures were established on different sections by statistical analysis methods,and the forecast results were verified. The results showed that the road surface temperature and air temperature of Hurongxi,Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang displayed obvious diurnal variation,but the difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature was larger. Compared with the other three sections,the maximum difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature on Hurongxi increased in winter and decreased in summer overall. The road surface temperature was close to air temperature on Hurongxi after sunset on sunny to cloudy and overcast in winter,while less than air temperature on Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang. The air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections on rainy day and significant on Hurongxi. In summer,the air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections under three sky conditions and the difference between them in afternoon was the biggest on sunny to cloudy and overcast. The road surface temperature was very close to each other among the four sections in January,while which was rising with the decrease of altitude in April,July and October. The forecast result of the road surface temperature was close to actual result on Hurongxi and Huanghuang,so which can be for reference. But there were some big errors between the forecast result and actual result in several timings on Hanyi and Wuhuang,so the forecast result should be corrected for actual business work.

Performance of the CMA-GD Model in Predicting Wind Speed at Wind Farms in Hubei, China

This study assesses the predictive capabilities of the CMA-GD model for wind speed prediction in two wind farms located in Hubei Province,China.The observed wind speeds at the height of 70m in wind turbines of two wind farms in Suizhou serve as the actual observation data for comparison and testing.At the same time,the wind speed predicted by the EC model is also included for comparative analysis.The results indicate that the CMA-GD model performs better than the EC model in Wind Farm A.The CMA-GD model exhibits a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.56,root mean square error of 2.72 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 2.11 m s^(-1).In contrast,the EC model shows a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.51,root mean square error of 2.83 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 2.21 m s^(-1).Conversely,in Wind Farm B,the EC model outperforms the CMA-GD model.The CMA-GD model achieves a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.55,root mean square error of 2.61 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 2.13 m s^(-1).By contrast,the EC model displays a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.63,root mean square error of 2.04 m s^(-1),and average absolute error of 1.67 m s^(-1).

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated.The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed.The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan.The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province.The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64.The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87.The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·20.The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south China.The IVT over the lower troposphere(<500 hPa)showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level,especially in the planetary boundary layer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.

Macro-and Micro-physical Characteristics of Different Parts of Mixed Convective-stratiform Clouds and Differences in Their Responses to Seeding

This study investigates the cloud macro-and micro-physical characteristics in the convective and stratiform regions and their different responses to the seeding for mixed convective-stratiform clouds that occurred in Shandong province on 21 May 2018,based on the observations from the aircraft,the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership(NPP)satellite,and the high-resolution Himawari-8(H8)satellite.The aircraft observations show that convection was deeper and radar echoes were significantly enhanced with higher tops in response to seeding in the convective region.This is linked with the conversion of supercooled liquid droplets to ice crystals with released latent heat,resulting in strengthened updrafts,enhanced radar echoes,higher cloud tops,and more and larger precipitation particles.In contrast,in the stratiform cloud region,after the Silver Iodide(AgI)seeding,the radar echoes become significantly weaker at heights close to the seeding layer,with the echo tops lowered by 1.4–1.7 km.In addition,a hollow structure appears at the height of 6.2–7.8 km with a depth of about 1.6 km and a diameter of about 5.5 km,and features such as icing seeding tracks appear.These suggest that the transformation between droplets and ice particles was accelerated by the seeding in the stratiform part.The NPP and H8 satellites also show that convective activity was stronger in the convective region after seeding;while in the stratiform region,a cloud seeding track with a width of 1–3 km appears 10 km downstream of the seeding layer 15 minutes after the AgI seeding,which moves along the wind direction as width increases.

Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the A1B scenario, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves, and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38℃ per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

Simulated Influence of Mountainous Wind Farms Operations on Local Climate

Renewable energy sources,especially wind power,were believed to be able to slow down global warming;however,evidence in recent years shows that wind farms may also induce climate change.With the rapid development of wind power industry,the number of wind farms installed in mountains has gradually increased.Therefore,it is necessary to study the impact of wind farms in mountainous areas on local climate.The Suizhou and Dawu wind farms in northern Hubei Province were chosen for the present study on the impact of wind farm operations on the local climate in mountainous areas.The mesoscale meteorological numerical model Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)and the Fitch model,together with turbulence correction factor,were used to simulate wind farm operations and study their effects on local climate.The results showed the characteristics of wind speed attenuation in mountainous wind farms:the amplitude and range of wind speed attenuation were stronger in the nighttime than in the daytime,and stronger in summer than in winter.The surface temperature increased and became more significant in summer.However,a cooling variation was observed above the surface warming center.The height of this center was higher in the daytime than it was in the nighttime.The latent heat flux in the wind farms decreased at night,accompanied by an increase in sensible heat flux.However,these changes were not significant.Some differences were observed between the impact of wind farms on the climate in the plains and the mountains.Such differences are more likely to be related to complex terrain conditions,climate conditions,and the density of wind turbines.The present study may provide support for the development and construction of wind farms in mountainous areas.