Simulation of COVID-19 Outbreak in Nanjing Lukou Airport Based on Complex Dynamical Networks

The Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic is still imposing a devastating impact on public health,the economy,and society.Predicting the development of epidemics and exploring the effects of various mitigation strategies have been a research focus in recent years.However,the spread simulation of COVID-19 in the dynamic social system is relatively unexplored.To address this issue,considering the outbreak of COVID-19 at Nanjing Lukou Airport in 2021,we constructed an artificial society of Nanjing Lukou Airport based on the Artificial societies,Computational experiments,and Parallel execution(ACP)approach.Specifically,the artificial society includes an environmental model,population model,contact networks model,disease spread model,and intervention strategy model.To reveal the dynamic variation of individuals in the airport,we first modeled the movement of passengers and designed an algorithm to generate the moving traces.Then,the mobile contact networks were constructed and aggregated with the static networks of staff and passengers.Finally,the complex dynamical network of contacts between individuals was generated.Based on the artificial society,we conducted large-scale computational experiments to study the spread characteristics of COVID-19 in an airport and to investigate the effects of different intervention strategies.Learned from the reproduction of the outbreak,it is found that the increase in cumulative incidence exhibits a linear growth mode,different from that(an exponential growth mode)in a static network.In terms of mitigation measures,promoting unmanned security checks and boarding in an airport is recommended,as to reduce contact behaviors between individuals and staff.

Strategy evaluation and optimization with an artificial society toward a Pareto optimum

Strategy evaluation and optimization in response to troubling urban issues has become a challenging issue due to increasing social uncertainty,unreliable predictions,and poor decision-making.To address this problem,we propose a universal computational experiment framework with a fine-grained artificial society that is integrated with data-based models.The purpose of the framework is to evaluate the consequences of various combinations of strategies geared towards reaching a Pareto optimum with regards to efficacy versus costs.As an example,by modeling coronavirus disease 2019 mitigation,we show that Pareto frontier nations could achieve better economic growth and more effective epidemic control through the analysis of real-world data.Our work suggests that a nation’s intervention strategy could be optimized based on the measures adopted by Pareto frontier nations through large-scale computational experiments.Our solution has been validated for epidemic control,and it can be generalized to other urban issues as well.

Toward parallel intelligence: An interdisciplinary solution for complex systems

The growing complexity of real-world systems necessitates interdisciplinary solutions to confront myriad challenges in modeling,analysis,management,and control.To meet these demands,the parallel systems method rooted in the artificial systems,computational experiments,and parallel execution(ACP)approach has been developed.The method cultivates a cycle termed parallel intelligence,which iteratively creates data,acquires knowledge,and refines the actual system.Over the past two decades,the parallel systems method has continuously woven advanced knowledge and technologies from various disciplines,offering vers atile interdisciplinary solutions for complex systems across diverse fields.This review explores the origins and fundamental concepts of the parallel systems method,showcasing its accomplishments as a diverse array of parallel technologies and applica-tions while also prognosticating potential challenges.We posit that this method will considerably augment sustainable development while enhancing interdisciplinary communication and cooperation.