Deep tectonics and seismogenic mechanisms of the seismic source zone of the Jishishan M_(s)6.2 earthquake on December 18,2023,at the northeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau

On December 18,2023,an M_(s)6.2 earthquake occurred in Jishishan,Gansu Province,China.This earthquake happened in the eastern region of the Qilian Orogenic Belt,which is situated at the forefront of the NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau(i.e.,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau),encompassing a rhombic-shaped area that intersects the Qilian-Qaidam Basin,Alxa Block,Ordos Block,and South China Block.In this study,we analyzed the deep tectonic pattern of the Jishishan earthquake by incorporating data on the crustal thickness,velocity structure,global navigation satellite system(GNSS)strain field,and anisotropy.We discovered that the location of the earthquake was related to changes in the crustal structure.The results showed that the Jishishan M_(s)6.2 earthquake occurred in a unique position,with rapid changes in the crustal thickness,Vp/Vs,phase velocity,and S-wave velocity.The epicenter of the earthquake was situated at the transition zone between high and low velocities and was in proximity to a low-velocity region.Additionally,the source area is flanked by two high-velocity anomalies from the east and west.The principal compressive strain orientation near the Lajishan Fault is primarily in the NNE and NE directions,which align with the principal compressive stress direction in this region.In some areas of the Lajishan Fault,the principal compressive strain orientations show the NNW direction,consistent with the direction of the upper crustal fast-wave polarization from local earthquakes and the phase velocity azimuthal anisotropy.These features underscore the relationship between the occurrence of the Jishishan M_(s)6.2 earthquake and the deep inhomogeneous structure and deep tectonic characteristics.The NE margin of the Tibetan Plateau was thickened by crustal extension in the process of northeastward expansion,and the middle and lower crustal materials underwent structural deformation and may have been filled with salt-containing fluids during the extension process.The presence of this weak layer makes it easier for strong earthquakes to occur through the release of overlying rigid crustal stresses.However,it is unlikely that an earthquake of comparable or larger magnitude would occur in the short term(e.g.,in one year)at the Jishishan east margin fault.

Study on the Physical Process and Seismogenic Mechanism of the Yangbi MS 6.4 Earthquake in Dali,Yunnan Province

The Ms 6.4 earthquake occurred on May 21,2021 in Yangbi County,Dali Prefecture,Yunnan Province,which was the largest earthquake after the 2014 Jinggu Ms 6.6 earthquake,in western Yunnan.After the earthquake,the rapid field investigation and earthquake relocation reveal that there was no obvious surface rupture and the earthquake did not occur on pre-existing active fault,but on a buried fault on the west side of Weixi–Qiaohou–Weishan fault zone in the eastern boundary of Baoshan sub-block.Significant foreshocks appeared three days before the earthquake.These phenomena aroused scholars'intensive attention.What the physical process and seismogenic mechanism of the Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake are revealed by the foreshocks and aftershocks?These scientific questions need to be solved urgently.

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability in China:Experiment Design and Preliminary Results of CSEP2.0

Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake forecasting experiments across CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).Over more than a decade,efforts to compare forecasts with observed earthquakes using numerous statistical test methods and insights into earthquake predictability,which have become a highlight of the CSEP platform.

Research on the Extraction of OLR Anomaly Prior to Ms 7.5 Sand Point,Alaska Earthquake based on IPI Method

Based on the understanding that the seismic fault system is a nonlinear complex system,Rundle(1995)introduced the nonlinear threshold system used in meteorology to analyze the ocean-atmosphere interface and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation into the study of seismic activity changes,and then proposed the PI method(Rundle et al.,2000a,b).Wu et al.(2011)modified the Pattern Informatics Method named MPI to extract the ionospheric anomaly by using data from DEMETER satellites which is suitable for 1–3 months short-term prediction.

Preliminary report of coseismic surface rupture(part)of Türkiye's M_(W)7.8 earthquake by remote sensing interpretation

Both M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes occurred in southeastern Türkiye on February 6,2023,resulting in numerous buildings collapsing and serious casualties.Understanding the distribution of coseismic surface ruptures and secondary disasters surrounding the epicentral area is important for post-earthquake emergency and disaster assessments.High-resolution Maxar and GF-2 satellite data were used after the events to extract the location of the rupture surrounding the first epicentral area.The results show that the length of the interpreted surface rupture zone(part of)is approximately 75 km,with a coseismic sinistral dislocation of 2-3 m near the epicenter;however,this reduced to zero at the tip of the southwest section of the East Anatolia Fault Zone.Moreover,dense soil liquefaction pits were triggered along the rupture trace.These events are in the western region of the Eurasian Seismic Belt and result from the subduction and collision of the Arabian and African Plates toward the Eurasian Plate.The western region of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent areas are in the eastern section of the Eurasian Seismic Belt,where seismic activity is controlled by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian Plates.Both China and Türkiye have independent tectonic histories.

Tracing the pace of an approaching‘seismic dragon king’:Additional evidence for the Noto earthquake swarm and the 2024 M_(W) 7.5 Noto earthquake

‘Dragon king’theory of extreme events has been systematically proposed and discussed since 2012,the last‘year of dragon’in the Chinese lunar calendar(Sornette and Ouillon,2012;Yukalov and Sornette,2012;Sachs et al.,2012),and has been under discussion till present(e.g.,Eliazar,2017;Lin et al.,2018;Glette-Iversen and Aven,2021;Premraj et al.,2021;Lei et al.,2023).In this theoretical framework based on the physics of complexity,a‘dragon king’is defined as an event so extreme that it lies outside a power-law distribution.What is of special interest is that,according to its theory,a‘dragon king’event should pose significant predictability(Sornette and Ouillon,2012).As the next‘year of dragon’approaches soon,it is worth revisiting this concept.

Three-dimensional fault model and features of chained hazards of the Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquake,Sichuan Province,China

The M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022 is located on the NNW-trending Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault with left-lateral strike-slip behavior.This area is where the Xianshuihe,Anninghe,Daliangshan and Longmenshan faults intersect.China Earthquake Administration has identified that intersection area,among the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault,the Anninghe fault,the Daliangshan fault and the southern part of the Longmenshan fault,as a high-magnitude earthquake hazard area.According to existing data on the Luding earthquake,including the focal parameters,the spatial distribution of re-located aftershocks,dominated azimuth of the earthquake intensities and earthquake-induced ground fissures,we built a 3D earthquake fault model.We found that two discontinuous NNW-trending vertical strike-slip faults with left stepping were the seismogenic faults of the Luding earthquake.Its coseismic left-lateral dislocation triggered transtensional slips and aftershocks on the NW-trending secondary faults at its northernmost tensile area.Meanwhile,local crustal coseismic shortening on the side of Mt.Gongga triggered the aftershocks on the NE-and NW-trending secondary conjugated strike-slip faults,which were confirmed by GNSS observations and In SAR deformation field around the epicenter.This earthquake rupturing pattern also controlled the spatial distribution of the earthquake intensity IX area and earthquake chain hazards.The Coulomb stress calculation shows that the Luding earthquake increases the risk of high-magnitude earthquake occurrence on the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and the Anninghe fault.Finally,we suggested doing good monitoring of the Anninghe fault and the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and avoiding active faults with seismogenic capacity and areas prone to earthquake-chained hazards during the site selection and planning of reconstruction.

Evaluation of numerical earthquake forecasting models

Evaluation of numerical earthquake forecasting models needs to consider two issues of equal importance:the application scenario of the simulation,and the complexity of the model.Criterion of the evaluation-based model selection faces some interesting problems in need of discussion.

SeisGuard: A Software Platform to Establish Automatically an Earthquake Forecasting Model

SeisGuard, a system for analyzing earthquake precursory data, is a software platform to search for earthquake precursory information by processing geophysical data from different sources to establish automatically an earthquake forecasting model. The main function of this system is to analyze and process the deformation, fluid, electromagnetic and other geophysical field observing data from ground-based observation, as well as space-based observation. Combined station and earthquake distributions, geological structure and other information, this system can provide a basic software platform for earthquake forecasting research based on spatiotemporal fusion. The hierarchical station tree for data sifting and the interaction mode have been innovatively developed in this SeisGuard system to improve users’ working efficiency. The data storage framework designed according to the characteristics of different time series can unify the interfaces of different data sources, provide the support of data flow, simplify the management and usage of data, and provide foundation for analysis of big data. The final aim of this development is to establish an effective earthquake forecasting model combined all available information from ground-based observations to space-based observations.

Regional stress field in Yunnan revealed by the focal mechanisms of moderate and small earthquakes

We determined focal mechanism solutions of 627 earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 3.0 in Yunnan from January 2008 to May 2018 by using broadband waveforms recorded by 287 permanent and temporary regional stations. The results clearly revealed predominantly strike-slip faulting characteristics for earthquakes in Yunnan, with focal depths concentrated in the top 10 km of the crust. The earthquake mechanisms obtained were combined with the global centroid moment tensor solutions of 80 additional earthquakes from 1976 to 2016 to invert for the regional variations of stress field orientation by using a damped regional-scale stress inversion scheme.Results of the stress field inversion confirmed that the Yunnan region is under a strike–slip stress regime, with both maximum and minimum stress axes being nearly horizontal. The maximum compressional axes are primarily oriented in a northwest-southeast direction, and they experience a clockwise rotation from north to south, whereas the maximum extensional axes are oriented largely northeast-southwest. The maximum compressional axes are in line with the global positioning system–inferred horizontal velocity field and the southeastward escape of the Sichuan–Yunnan Rhombic Block, whereas the maximum extensional axes are consistent with anisotropy derived from SKS splitting. Against the strike–slip background, normal faulting stress regimes can be seen in the Tengchong volcanic area as well as in other areas with complex crisscrossing fault zones.

Gravity pattern in southeast margin of Tibetan Plateau and its implications to tectonics and large earthquakes

There are many active faults in the southeast margin of Tibetan Plateau,where three large active faults zones,the Longmenshan,Xianshuihe and Anninghe,merge to form a"Y"shape.Strong crustal deformation and a complicated fault distribution accompany strong earthquake activity in this zone.In this paper,we investigate a multi-scale gravity anomaly in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau using the wavelet transform;we find that the pattern of the gravity field is closely related to the fault system in the study area.Analyzing the characteristics of this Bouguer gravity anomaly at different orders indicates that the eastern Himalayan syntaxis has produced a strong eastward push during its northward movement,resulting in a shortening of the crust from west to east and a rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.The Songpan–Garzêand Sichuan–Yunnan blocks have been forced to slip and extrude southward and eastward laterally.The distributions of seven large earthquakes from 1970 to 2018 reflects the relationship between large earthquakes and characteristics of the gravity anomaly.Comparing the tectonic backgrounds of several earthquakes reveals that the large earthquakes occur usually in the high gravity anomaly gradient zone,which corresponds in general to the boundary zones of the blocks.We infer that large earthquakes occur primarily in high Bouguer gravity anomaly zones in the upper crust,while low Bouguer gravity anomalies encompass the lower crust and the uppermost mantle.

Preliminary investigation of building damage in Hatay under February 6,2023 Turkey earthquakes

On February 6,2023,an M_(w)7.8 earthquake hit the south of Kahramanmaras prefecture,Turkey,followed by another M_(w)7.5 earthquake after nine hours in the middle region of the Kahramanmaras prefecture.More than 84,000 buildings collapsed or were severely damaged,and more than 50,000 lives were lost in Turkey and Syria.Some of the authors,as members of Chinese rescue team,entered Antakya,Hatay prefecture,and investigated the damaged buildings.This paper first summarizes the damage patterns of buildings and provides three reasons for the massive number of collapsed buildings;i.e.,the lack of seismic measures for better ductility,site effects such as liquefaction and surface rupture,and pronounced low-frequency components of the ground motions.Next,the seismic responses of two typical buildings are calculated based on the geometric data estimated by visual inspection.The results imply that the resonance of the whole structure and the poorer ductility of key members resulted in the collapse of buildings.Finally,some conclusions are drawn.Note that although a large number of buildings were seriously damaged to collapse,the majority of buildings in the areas of extreme shaking were lightly or moderately damaged,which implies that well designed and constructed buildings were able to survive and protect human lives even in over-design earthquakes.

The Spatial Distribution and Attribute Parameter Statistics of Landslides Triggered by the May 12th,2008,MW7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake

A complete landslide inventory and attribute database is the importantly fundamental for the study of the earthquake-induced landslide.Substantial landslides were triggered by the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th,2008.Google Earth images of preand post-earthquakes show that 52194 co-seismic landslides were recognized and mapped,with a total landslides area of 1021 km2.Based on the statistics,we assigned all landslide parameters and established the co-seismic landslides database,which includes area,length,and width of landslides,elevation of the scarp top and foot edge,and the top and bottom elevations of each located slope.Finally,the spatial distribution and the above attribute parameters of landslides were analyzed.The results show that the spatial distribution of the co-seismic landslides is extremely uneven.The landslides that mainly occur in a rectangular area(a width of 30 km of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and a length of 120 km between Yingxiu and Beichuan)are obviously controlled by surface rupture,terrain,and peak ground acceleration.Meanwhile,a large number of small landslides(individual landslide area less than 10000 m2)contribute less to the total landslides area.The number of landslides larger than 10000 m2 accounts for 38.7%of the total number of co-seismic landslides,while the area of those landslides account for 88%of the total landslides area.The 52194 co-seismic landslides are caused by bedrock collapse that usually consists of three parts:source area,transport area,and accumulation area.However,based on the area-volume power-law relationship,the resulting regional landslide volume may be much larger than the true landslide volume if the landslide volume is calculated using the influenced area from each landslide.

Machine learning-based automatic construction of earthquake catalog for reservoir areas in multiple river basins of Guizhou province,China

Large reservoirs have the risk of reservoir induced seismicity.Accurately detecting and locating microseismic events are crucial when studying reservoir earthquakes.Automatic earthquake monitoring in reservoir areas is one of the effective measures for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation.In this study,we first applied the automatic location workflow(named LOCFLOW)to process 14-day continuous waveform data from several reservoir areas in different river basins of Guizhou province.Compared with the manual seismic catalog,the recall rate of seismic event detection using the workflow was 83.9%.Of the detected earthquakes,88.9%had an onset time difference below 1 s,81.8%has a deviation in epicenter location within 5 km,and 77.8%had a focal depth difference of less than 5 km,indicating that the workflow has good generalization capacity in reservoir areas.We further applied the workflow to retrospectively process continuous waveform data recorded from 2020 to the first half of 2021 in reservoir areas in multiple river basins of western Guizhou province and identified five times the number of seismic events obtained through manual processing.Compared with manual processing of seismic catalog,the completeness magnitude had decreased from 1.3 to 0.8,and a b-value of 1.25 was calculated for seismicity in western Guizhou province,consistent with the b-values obtained for the reservoir area in previous studies.Our results show that seismicity levels were relatively low around large reservoirs that were impounded over 15 years ago,and there is no significant correlation between the seismicity in these areas and reservoir impoundment.Seismicity patterns were notably different around two large reservoirs that were only impounded about 12 years ago,which may be explained by differences in reservoir storage capacity,the geologic and tectonic settings,hydrogeological characteristics,and active fault the reservoir areas.Prominent seismicity persisted around two large reservoirs that have been impounded for less than 10 years.These events were clustered and had relatively shallow focal depths.The impoundment of the Jiayan Reservoir had not officially begun during this study period,but earthquake location results suggested a high seismicity level in this reservoir area.Therefore,any seismicity in this reservoir area after the official impoundment deserves special attention.

Coseismic deformation of the 2021 M_(W)7.4 Maduo earthquake from joint inversion of InSAR, GPS, and teleseismic data

The M_(W)7.4 Maduo earthquake occurred on 22 May 2021 at 02:04 CST with a large-expansion surface rupture.This earthquake was located in the Bayan Har block at the eastern Tibetan Plateau,where eight earthquakes of M_(S)>7.0 have occurred in the past 25 years.Here,we combined interferometric synthetic aperture radar,GPS,and teleseismic data to study the coseismic slip distribution,fault geometry,and dynamic source rupture process of the Maduo earthquake.We found that the overall coseismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake is distributed in the NWW-SEE direction along 285°.There was slight bending at the western end and two branches at the eastern end.The maximum slip is located near the eastern bending area on the northern branch of the fault system.The rupture nucleated on the Jiangcuo fault and propagated approximately 160 km along-strike in both the NWW and SEE directions.The characteristic source rupture process of the Maduo earthquake is similar to that of the 2010 M_(W)6.8 Yushu earthquake,indicating that similar earthquakes with large-expansion surface ruptures and small shallow slip deficits can occur on both the internal fault and boundary fault of the Bayan Har block.

Preliminary report of the September 5,2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding earthquake,Sichuan,China

The 2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 M_(S)7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock.The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ~35 mm and ~55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of Ⅷ or above near the ruptured area,consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being M_(S)4.5. Aftershock locations(up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.

Source rupture characteristics of the September 5,2022 Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquake at the Xianshuihe fault zone in southwest China

On September 5,2022,at Beijing time 12:52 p.m.,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake struck Luding County,GarzêTibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The epicenter of the earthquake was at the intersection of the Sichuan-Yunnan,Bayankala,and South China blocks.The tectonic background is extremely complex,and strong earthquakes occur frequently.Based on a predetermined focal location and focal mechanism solution for the earthquake,we reversed the focal depth and rupture process of the earthquake by fitting the teleseismic P and SH waves recorded by the global seismic network.The results show that the focal depth is 16 km,with the main rupture having a length of about 45 km near the epicenter,with a maximum displacement of 1.02 m.Although the rupture mainly propagates from the north–northwest(NNW)to the south–southeast(SSE)along the fault strike,there is a small-scale rupture slip zone at shallow depths in the north–northeast(NNE)direction along the epicenter of the seismogenic fault.This rupture image corresponds to the cluster distribution of aftershocks in the NNW and SSE directions starting from the epicenter,corresponding to the distribution of recorded landslides.The earthquake occurred on the Moxi fault,located in the southeastern section of the Xianshuihe fault.The major tectonic feature in this area is the southeastward movement of the Chuandian block relative to the Bayanhar block.

Spatiotemporal evolution of the 2021 M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence

Based on the seismic phase reports of the Yangbi area from January 1 to June 25,2021,and the waveform data of M≥4 earthquakes,we obtained the relocation results and focal mechanism solutions of the M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence using the HypoDD and CAP methods.Based on our results,our main conclusions are as follows:(1)the M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence is a typical foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence.The fore-shocks of the first two stages have the obvious fronts of migration and their migration rate increased gradually.There was no apparent front of migration during the third stage,and the occurrence of the mainshock was related to stress triggering from a M5.3 foreshock.We tentatively speculate that the rupture pattern of the Yangbi earthquake sequence conforms to the cascading-rupture model;and(2)the main fault of the M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence is a NW-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault.As time progressed,a minor conjugate aftershock belt formed at the northwest end of this fault,and a dendritic branching structure emerged in the southern fault segment,showing a complex seismogenic fault structure.We suggested that the fault of the Yangbi earthquake sequence may be a young sub-fault of the Weixi-Weishan fault.

Seismicity and seismogenic mechanism of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake on September 16, 2021

Based on the seismic data recorded by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC) in the Luxian area from January 2009 to October 2021,the 3D V_P,V_S, V_P/V_S structures and seismic locations of the area are obtained by joint inversion using the V_P/V_S model consistency-constrained double-difference tomography method(tomoDDMC).The earthquakes in the study area are mainly concentrated at a depth of 2-6 km,and the focal depth is generally shallow.The Ms 6.0 Luxian earthquake occurred at the transition zone of high-and low-velocity anomalies and the aftershock sequence was distributed along the edge of the low-V_P zone.A small number of foreshocks occurred on the west side of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake,while most of the aftershocks were distributed on the east side of the M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake.The aftershock sequence consisted of three seismic bands with different trends,and the overall distribution was in a NWW direction,which was inconsistent with the spatial distribution of the main active faults nearby.In addition,the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes and the variation of b-values are closely related to the industrial water injection activities in the study area,reflecting the activation of pre-existing hidden faults under certain tectonic and stress environments leading to seismic activities in the area.

Strong Earthquakes in the Yunnan-Sichuan Region: Evaluation of a Forward Long-to-intermediate-term PI Forecast

Since the initial international cooperation in the framework of Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,a lot of forecast models have been developed and served for the earthquake forecasting experiment in different CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).