Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.

Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

Abrupt Summer Warming and Changes in Temperature Extremes over Northeast Asia Since the Mid-1990s: Drivers and Physical Processes

This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface wanning, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, daily minimum temperature （Train）, annual hottest day temperature （TXx）, and annual warmest night temperature （TNx） were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days （SU） and tropical nights （TR）. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature （SST）/sea ice extent （SIE）, anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol （AA） forcing, relative to the period 1964- 93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA （through aerosol- radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions）, mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.

Effect of Horizontal Resolution on the Representation of the Global Monsoon Annual Cycle in AGCMs

The sensitivity of the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle to horizontal resolution is compared in three AGCMs： the Met Office Unified Model-Global Atmosphere 3.0; the Meteorological Research Institute AGCM3; and the Global High Resolution AGCM from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. For each model, we use two horizon- tal resolution configurations for the period 1998-2008. Increasing resolution consistently improves simulated precipitation and low-level circulation of the annual mean and the first two annual cycle modes, as measured by the pattern correla- tion coefficient and equitable threat score. Improvements in simulating the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal are region-dependent. No consistent response to resolution is found in simulating summer monsoon retreat. Regionally, in- creased resolution reduces the positive bias in simulated annual mean precipitation, the two annual-cycle modes over the West African monsoon and Northwestern Pacific monsoon. An overestimation of the solstitial mode and an underestimation of the equinoctial asymmetric mode of the East Asian monsoon axe reduced in all high-resolution configurations. Systematic errors exist in lower-resolution models for simulating the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Higher resolution models consistently improve the early summer monsoon onset over East Asia and West Africa, but substantial differences exist in the responses over the Indian monsoon region, where biases differ across the three low-resolution AGCMs. This study demonstrates the importance of a multi-model comparison when examining the added value of resolution and the importance of model physical parameterizations for simulation of the Indian monsoon.

Magnitude,Scale,and Dynamics of the 2020 Mei-yu Rains and Floods over China

Large parts of East and South Asia were affected by heavy precipitation and flooding during early summer 2020.This study provides both a statistical and dynamical characterization of rains and floods affecting the Yangtze River Basin(YRB).By aggregating daily and monthly precipitation over river basins across Asia,it is shown that the YRB is one of the areas that was particularly affected.June and July 2020 rainfall was higher than in the previous 20 years,and the YRB experienced anomalously high rainfall across most of its sub-basins.YRB discharge also attained levels not seen since 1998/1999.An automated method detecting the daily position of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Front(EASMF)is applied to show that the anomalously high YRB precipitation was associated with a halted northward progression of the EASMF and prolonged mei-yu conditions over the YRB lasting more than one month.Two 5-day heavy-precipitation episodes(12−16 June and 4−8 July 2020)are selected from this period for dynamical characterization,including Lagrangian trajectory analysis.Particular attention is devoted to the dynamics of the airstreams converging at the EASMF.Both episodes display heavy precipitation and convergence of monsoonal and subtropical air masses.However,clear differences are identified in the upper-level flow pattern,substantially affecting the balance of airmass advection towards the EASMF.This study contextualizes heavy precipitation in Asia in summer 2020 and showcases several analysis tools developed by the authors for the study of such events.

Evaluating the Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models

Total column ozone(TCO)over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)is lower than that over other regions at the same latitude,particularly in summer.This feature is known as the“TP ozone valley”.This study evaluates long-term changes in TCO and the ozone valley over the TP from 1984 to 2100 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The TP ozone valley consists of two low centers,one is located in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere(UTLS),and the other is in the middle and upper stratosphere.Overall,the CMIP6 models simulate the low ozone center in the UTLS well and capture the spatial characteristics and seasonal cycle of the TP ozone valley,with spatial correlation coefficients between the modeled TCO and the Multi Sensor Reanalysis version 2(MSR2)TCO observations greater than 0.8 for all CMIP6 models.Further analysis reveals that models which use fully coupled and online stratospheric chemistry schemes simulate the anticorrelation between the 150 hPa geopotential height and zonal anomaly of TCO over the TP better than models without interactive chemistry schemes.This suggests that coupled chemical-radiative-dynamical processes play a key role in the simulation of the TP ozone valley.Most CMIP6 models underestimate the low center in the middle and upper stratosphere when compared with the Microwave Limb Sounder(MLS)observations.However,the bias in the middle and upper stratospheric ozone simulations has a marginal effect on the simulation of the TP ozone valley.Most CMIP6 models predict the TP ozone valley in summer will deepen in the future.

Increasing Surface UV Radiation in the Tropics and Northern Mid-Latitudes due to Ozone Depletion after 2010

Excessive exposure to ultraviolet(UV)radiation harms humans and ecosystems.The level of surface UV radiation had increased due to declines in stratospheric ozone in the late 1970s in response to emissions of chlorofluorocarbons.Following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol,the stratospheric loading of chlorine/bromine peaked in the late 1990s and then decreased;subsequently,stratospheric ozone and surface UV radiation would be expected to recover and decrease,respectively.Here,we show,based on multiple data sources,that the May–September surface UV radiation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has undergone a statistically significant increasing trend[about 60.0 J m^(–2)(10 yr)^(–1)]at the 2σlevel for the period 2010–20,due to the onset of total column ozone(TCO)depletion[about−3.5 DU(10 yr)^(–1)].Further analysis shows that the declines in stratospheric ozone after 2010 could be related to an increase in stratospheric nitrogen oxides due to increasing emissions of the source gas nitrous oxide(N_(2)O).

The Representation of Soil Moisture−Atmosphere Feedbacks across the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6

Thermal processes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)influence atmospheric conditions on regional and global scales.Given this,previous work has shown that soil moisture−driven surface flux variations feed back onto the atmosphere.Whilst soil moisture is a source of atmospheric predictability,no study has evaluated soil moisture−atmosphere coupling on the TP in general circulation models(GCMs).In this study,we use several analysis techniques to assess soil moisture−atmosphere coupling in CMIP6 simulations including:instantaneous coupling indices;analysis of flux and atmospheric behaviour during dry spells;and a quantification of the preference for convection over drier soils.Through these metrics we partition feedbacks into their atmospheric and terrestrial components.Consistent with previous global studies,we conclude substantial inter-model differences in the representation of soil moisture−atmosphere coupling,and that most models underestimate such feedbacks.Focusing on dry spell analysis,most models underestimate increased sensible heat during periods of rainfall deficiency.For example,the model-mean bias in anomalous sensible heat flux is 10 W m−2(≈25%)smaller compared to observations.Deficient dry-spell sensible heat fluxes lead to a weaker atmospheric response.We also find that most GCMs fail to capture the negative feedback between soil moisture and deep convection.The poor simulation of feedbacks in CMIP6 experiments suggests that forecast models also struggle to exploit soil moisture−driven predictability.To improve the representation of land−atmosphere feedbacks requires developments in not only atmospheric modelling,but also surface processes,as we find weak relationships between rainfall biases and coupling indexes.

Track forecast:Operational capability and new techniques-Summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)

In this paper,we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)subgroup on operational track forecasting techniques and capability.The rate of improvement in the accuracy of official forecast tracks(OFTs)appears to be slowing down,at least for shorter lead times,where we may be approaching theoretical limits.Operational agencies continue to use consensus methods to produce the OFT with most continuing to rely on an unweighted consensus of four to nine NWP models.There continues to be limited use of weighted consensus techniques,which is likely a result of the skills and additional maintenance needed to support this approach.Improvements in the accuracy of ensemble mean tracks is leading to increased use of ensemble means in consensus tracks.Operational agencies are increasingly producing situation-dependent depictions of track uncertainty,rather than relying on a static depiction of track forecast certainty based on accuracy statistics from the preceding 5 years.This trend has been facilitated by the greater availability of ensemble NWP guidance,particularly vortex parameter files,and improved spread in ensembles.Despite improving spread-skill relationships,most ensemble NWP systems remain under spread.Hence many operational centers are looking to leverage“super-ensembles”(ensembles of ensembles)to ensure the full spread of location probability is captured.This is an important area of service development for multi-hazard impact-based warnings as it supports better decision making by emergency managers and the community in the face of uncertainty.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration.Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communication Co.Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

On Northern Hemisphere Wave Patterns Associated with Winter Rainfall Events in China

During extended winter （November-April）, 43% of the intraseasonal rainfall variability in China is explained by three spatial patterns of temporally coherent rainfall, These patterns were identified with empirical orthogonal teleconnection （EOT） analysis of observed 1982-2007 pentad rainfall anomalies and connected to midlatitude disturbances. However, ex- amination of individual strong EOT events shows that there is substantial inter-event variability in their dynamical evolution, which implies that precursor patterns found in regressions cannot serve as useful predictors. To understand the physical nature and origins of the extratropical precursors, the EOT technique is applied to six simulations of the Met Office Unified Model at horizontal resolutions of 200-40 km, with and without air-sea coupling. All simulations reproduce the observed precursor patterns in regressions, indicating robust underlying dynamical processes. Further investigation into the dynamics associated with observed patterns shows that Rossby wave dynamics can explain the large inter-event variability. The results suggest that the appaxently slowly evolving or quasi-stationaxy waves in regression analysis are a statistical amalgamation of more rapidly propagating waves with a variety of origins and properties.

Multi-stage ensemble-learning-based model fusion for surface ozone simulations: A focus on CMIP6 models

Accurately simulating the geographical distribution and temporal variability of global surface ozone has long been one of the principal components of chemistry-climate modelling.However,the simulation outcomes have been reported to vary significantly as a result of the complex mixture of uncertain factors that control the tropospheric ozone budget.Settling the cross-model discrepancies to achieve higher accuracy predictions of surface ozone is thus a task of priority,and methods that overcome structural biases in models going beyond naïve averaging of model simulations are urgently required.Building on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),we have transplanted a conventional ensemble learning approach,and also constructed an innovative 2-stage enhanced space-time Bayesian neural network to fuse an ensemble of 57 simulations together with a prescribed ozone dataset,both of which have realised outstanding performances(R2>0.95,RMSE<2.12 ppbv).The conventional ensemble learning approach is computationally cheaper and results in higher overall performance,but at the expense of oceanic ozone being overestimated and the learning process being uninterpretable.The Bayesian approach performs better in spatial generalisation and enables perceivable interpretability,but induces heavier computational burdens.Both of these multi-stage machine learning-based approaches provide frameworks for improving the fidelity of composition-climate model outputs for uses in future impact studies.

人为气溶胶导致全球陆地季风区降水减少的动力和热力过程

季风区生活着全球约2/3的人口,季风降水变化直接关系到当地的社会经济发展.观测证据表明20世纪后半叶以来全球陆地季风降水显著减少,理解自然和人为强迫影响该变化趋势的物理过程,对于未来水资源规划、旱涝灾害风险管理、减缓与适应策略的制定具有重要意义.文章通过比较观测资料和第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)5个全球气候模式不同外强迫试验模拟的1948~2005年全球陆地季风降水的变化,发现观测中全球陆地季风降水的变干趋势与气候模式人为外强迫试验结果,特别是人为气溶胶强迫试验的结果高度一致.利用最优指纹法的检测与归因分析表明,人为气溶胶强迫对该变干趋势的贡献为102%(5~95%的不确定性范围为62~144%).基于水汽收支分析比较热力和动力过程的贡献,发现人为气溶胶强迫主要通过减弱垂直水汽平流从而造成全球陆地季风降水减少.本文结果意味着如果未来季风区气溶胶排放不能得以控制,则季风降水可能会继续减少;而中国自2006年以来气溶胶排放的显著下降趋势,则有利于缓解季风区降水的减少趋势.

大陆漂移、高原隆升与新生代亚-非-澳洲季风区和干旱区演化

亚-非-澳洲季风区和干旱区的面积约占这三大洲陆地总面积的60%以上.基于新生代以来亚-非-澳洲季风和干旱环境以及东半球海陆分布和青藏高原等地形显著变化的地质事实,利用全球海-气耦合模式开展新生代5个特征地质时期气候模拟试验,系统探讨了新生代亚-非-澳洲季风区和干旱区形成演化及其受大陆漂移和高原隆升的影响.结果表明,亚-非-澳洲季风区和干旱区形成的时间和原因明显不同.北非与南非季风在古新世中期已经存在,南亚次大陆季风在始新世印度大陆移入北半球热带后开始出现,而东亚和澳大利亚北部季风在中新世才建立.北非、南非、南亚和澳大利亚热带季风的建立是大陆漂移的位置和热带辐合带季节性迁移共同决定的,而青藏高原的位置和高度则是东亚季风建立的关键因素.北非、南非、亚洲和澳大利亚副热带干旱区的存在取决于大陆的位置和行星尺度副热带高压的控制,阿拉伯半岛和西亚干旱区的发展与区域尺度海陆变迁,特别是古特提斯海的退缩密切相关,而亚洲内陆中纬度干旱区的形成则是青藏高原隆升的结果.这一研究揭示了地球构造边界条件在地质时期区域气候环境形成演化中的重要作用.

青藏高原隆升对亚洲季风-干旱环境演化的影响

青藏高原隆升是新生代最重要的地质事件之一,对亚洲乃至全球气候和环境演化都产生了深刻的影响.近40年来中外学者利用各种地质记录和气候数值模拟研究了青藏高原隆升的气候环境效应,丰富了对亚洲季风变迁和亚洲内陆干旱化机制的认识,但至今仍存在许多需深入思考和探讨的问题.本文试图回顾青藏高原隆升对亚洲季风-干旱环境演化影响的研究,对高原整体隆升、阶段性隆升和区域隆升3类数值模拟试验的结果进行总结,重点分析不同形式的构造隆升在气候和环境效应上的区域差异.从目前的数值模拟结果来看,海陆分布和喜马拉雅山的隆升可能对南亚季风的建立和发展具有较大的作用,而东亚北方季风的形成发展、高原北侧干旱化加剧和亚洲粉尘循环增强则可能与青藏高原主体、特别是高原北部的隆升关系更为密切.该文也对青藏高原隆升与其他影响因子作用的对比、南亚季风和东亚季风的起源、高原隆升过程中的反馈效应与气候环境变化的非线性响应、数值模拟与地质记录的对比及其不确定性等进行讨论,并探讨了未来需深化研究的一些问题.

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era,the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution.During the past four decades,many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations.The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification,but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further.This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment,summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift,phased uplift and sub-regional uplift,and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts.From previous modeling results,the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon.However,the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia,the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body,especially the northern part of the TP.In this review,we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors,origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon,feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift.Finally,we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records,discuss their uncertainties,and highlight some problems worthy of further studying.

Continental drift, plateau uplift, and the evolutions of monsoon and arid regions in Asia, Africa, and Australia during the Cenozoic

Monsoon and arid regions in the Asia-Africa-Australia(A-A-A) realm occupy more than 60% of the total area of these continents. Geological evidence showed that significant changes occurred to the A-A-A environments of the monsoon and arid regions, the land-ocean configuration in the Eastern Hemisphere, and the topography of the Tibetan Plateau(TP) in the Cenozoic. Motivated by this background, numerical experiments for 5 typical geological periods during the Cenozoic were conducted using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to systemically explore the formations and evolutionary histories of the Cenozoic A-A-A monsoon and arid regions under the influences of continental drift and plateau uplift. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that the timings and causes of the formations of monsoon and arid regions in the A-A-A realm were very different. The northern and southern African monsoons existed during the mid-Paleocene, while the South Asian monsoon appeared in the Eocene after the Indian Subcontinent moved into the tropical Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, the East Asian monsoon and northern Australian monsoon were established much later in the Miocene. The establishment of the tropical monsoons in northern and southern Africa, South Asia, and Australia were determined by both the continental drift and seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ), while the position and height of the TP were the key factor for the establishment of the East Asian monsoon. The presence of the subtropical arid regions in northern and southern Africa,Asia, and Australia depended on the positions of the continents and the control of the planetary scale subtropical high pressure zones, while the arid regions in the Arabian Peninsula and West Asia were closely related to the retreat of the Paratethys Sea. The formation of the mid-latitude arid region in the Asian interior, on the other hand, was the consequence of the uplift of the TP.These results from this study provide insight to the important roles played by the earth's tectonic boundary conditions in the formations and evolutions of regional climates during geological times.

The dynamic and thermodynamic processes dominating the reduction of global land monsoon precipitation driven by anthropogenic aerosols emission

Changes in monsoon precipitation have profound social and economic impacts as more than two-thirds of the world’s population lives in monsoon regions.Observations show a significant reduction in global land monsoon precipitation during the second half of the 20 th century.Understanding the cause of this change,especially possible anthropogenic origins,is important.Here,we compare observed changes in global land monsoon precipitation during 1948–2005 with those simulated by 5 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-phase 5(CMIP5)under different external forcings.We show that the observed drying trend is consistent with the model simulated response to anthropogenic forcing and to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in particular.We apply the optimal fingerprinting method to quantify anthropogenic influences on precipitation and find that anthropogenic aerosols may have contributed to 102%(62–144%for the 5–95%confidence interval)of the observed decrease in global land monsoon precipitation.A moisture budget analysis indicates that the reduction in precipitation results from reduced vertical moisture advection in response to aerosol forcing.Since much of the monsoon regions,such as India and China,have been experiencing rapid developments with increasing aerosol emissions in the past decedes,our results imply a further reduction in monsoon precipitation in these regions in the future if effective mitigations to reduce aerosol emissions are not deployed.The observed decline of aerosol emission in China since 2006 helps to alleviate the reducing trend of monsoon precipiptaion.

Responses of Arctic sea ice to stratospheric ozone depletion

The Arctic has experienced several extreme springtime stratospheric ozone depletion events over the past four decades,particularly in 1997,2011 and 2020.However,the impact of this stratospheric ozone depletion on the climate system remains poorly understood.Here we show that the stratospheric ozone depletion causes significant reductions in the sea ice concentration(SIC)and the sea ice thickness(SIT)over the Kara Sea,Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea from spring to summer.This is partially caused by enhanced ice transport from Barents-Kara Sea and East Siberian Sea to the Fram Strait,which is induced by a strengthened and longer lived polar vortex associated with stratospheric ozone depletion.Additionally,cloud longwave radiation and surface albedo feedbacks enhance the melting of Arctic sea ice,particularly along the coast of the Eurasian continent.This study highlights the need for realistic representation of stratosphere-troposphere interactions in order to accurately predict Arctic sea ice loss.

The Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming of September 2019

Sudden stratospheric warmings(SSWs)are extreme cases of stratospheric polar vortex weakening[1].They are termed minor when a reversal of the stratospheric meridional temperature gradient in the subpolar region at 10 hPa and poleward of 60occurs,or major when this is accompanied by a complete reversal of the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet[2].Although SSWs occur in both hemispheres,major SSWs are usually observed in the Northern Hemisphere,with a frequency of approximately six per decade.In contrast,only one major SSW has been recorded in the Southern Hemisphere,which occurred in 2002[3].

超越传统NO_(x)和VOCs控制的臭氧污染防治新思路

Ambient ozone(O3)was first identified as a key harmful air pollutant in the study of photochemical smog during the 1950s in Los Angeles.Subsequent studies uncovered that surface O3 was not emitted directly,but formed from the reactions of nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))and volatile organic compounds(VOCs)in sunlight.Quantifying the relationship between O3 and its two main precursors,NOx and VOCs,is considered to be the cornerstone for enabling successful mitigation of O3.In the past,a central area for the study and practice of O3 pollution control was Los Angeles and the surrounding area.The ambient O3 concentrations in the area were successfully and continuously reduced from 400 ppb(1 ppb=109 m^(3)/m^(3))to ca.120 ppb due to the joint mitigation of VOC and NOx emissions from 1960 to 2010[1].Nevertheless,O3 pollution still represents one of the most pervasive and stubborn environmental problems in megacities worldwide,with many populous centres regularly breaching WHO 8-hour Interim Targets-1 levels(160 lg/m^(3)),not to mention the updated air quality guideline value of 100 lg/m^(3).The difficulty of O3 pollution control is due to a number of factors,including its non-linear relationship with NOx[2],the difficulty of anthropogenic VOC control[3]and the contributions of biogenic VOCs.