A new nudging scheme is proposed for the operational prediction system of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC)of China,mainly aimed at improving El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and India...A new nudging scheme is proposed for the operational prediction system of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC)of China,mainly aimed at improving El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)predictions.Compared with the origin nudging scheme of NMEFC,the new scheme adds a nudge assimilation for wind components,and increases the nudging weight at the subsurface.Increasing the nudging weight at the subsurface directly improved the simulation performance of the ocean component,while assimilating low-level wind components not only affected the atmospheric component but also benefited the oceanic simulation.Hindcast experiments showed that the new scheme remarkably improved both ENSO and IOD prediction skills.The skillful prediction lead time of ENSO was up to 11 months,1 month longer than a hindcast using the original nudging scheme.Skillful prediction of IOD could be made 4–5 months ahead by the new scheme,with a 0.2 higher correlation at a 3-month lead time.These prediction skills approach the level of some of the best state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models.Improved ENSO and IOD predictions occurred across all seasons,but mainly for target months in the boreal spring for the ENSO and the boreal spring and summer for the IOD.展开更多
This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2...This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.展开更多
A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and D...A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results.展开更多
The 3rd Korea-China joint workshop on Marine Environment Forecast System for the Yellow and East China Seas, and Oceanic Monitoring and Prediction System of Radionuclides for Nuclear Safety was co-hosted by Korea Ocea...The 3rd Korea-China joint workshop on Marine Environment Forecast System for the Yellow and East China Seas, and Oceanic Monitoring and Prediction System of Radionuclides for Nuclear Safety was co-hosted by Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute (KORDI), National Marine Environment Forecasting Center (NMEFC) and The First Institute of Oceanography (FIO), at the President Hotel in Seoul, during the period of April 25 29, 2012.展开更多
Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Ni?a events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-...Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Ni?a events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-normal precipitation during the first boreal spring, but above-normal precipitation during the second year. The difference in spring precipitation over southern China is correlative to the variation in western North Pacific anomalous cyclone(WNPC), which can in turn be attributed to the different sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) over the Tropical Pacific. The remote forcing of negative SSTA in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and the local air-sea interaction in the western North Pacific are the usual causes of WNPC formation and maintenance.SSTA in the first spring is stronger than those in the second spring. As a result, the intensity of WNPC in the first year is stronger, which is more likely to reduce the moisture in southern China by changing the moisture transport, leading to prolonged precipitation deficits over southern China. However, the tropical SSTA signals in the second year are too weak to induce the formation and maintenance of WNPC and the below-normal precipitation over southern China. Thus, the variation in tropical SSTA signals between two consecutive springs during multiyear La Ni?a events leads to obvious differences in the spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly in southern China by causing the different WNPC response.展开更多
The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m oc...The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.展开更多
Using the observation data in Yongxing Island,South China Sea(SCS)from December 2013 to November 2018,the multiple time scales variation of atmospheric CO_(2)and CH_(4)were analyzed to understand their temporal variat...Using the observation data in Yongxing Island,South China Sea(SCS)from December 2013 to November 2018,the multiple time scales variation of atmospheric CO_(2)and CH_(4)were analyzed to understand their temporal variation characteristics and controlling factors.The regional-averaged background mole fractions of CO_(2)and CH_(4)both show a single-period sinusoidal variation with a lower value at noon and a higher value in the wee hours.In the seasonal scale,they exhibited a significant seasonal difference with higher values in winter and lower values in summer.In the annual scale,CO_(2)and CH_(4)both show an increasing trend,with an annual growth rate of approximately 3.2 ppm and 12 ppb,respectively.The annual growth rate at this site was higher than the global average.The change in atmospheric CO_(2)and CH_(4)in Yongxing Island was probably caused by the higher emission of the surrounding areas and the airflows driven by monsoon.Hopefully,the long-term and high-resolution greenhouse gases(GHGs)dataset will aid relevent researchers and decision-makers in performing more in-depth studies for GHG sources in order to derive effective strategies.展开更多
Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important me...Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.展开更多
The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,prev...The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979.This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years.The+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO phase.The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO periods.However,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend.The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations.The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT anomalies.Furthermore,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role.In the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.展开更多
An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion equation.Because of the directionality of the advection...An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion equation.Because of the directionality of the advection term,the discrete method needs to be chosen very carefully.The finite analytic method is an alternative scheme to solve the advection-diffusion equation.As a combination of analytical and numerical methods,it not only has high calculation accuracy but also holds the characteristic of the auto upwind.To demonstrate its ability,the one-dimensional steady and unsteady advection-diffusion equation numerical examples are respectively solved by the finite analytic method.The more widely used upwind difference method is used as a control approach.The result indicates that the finite analytic method has higher accuracy than the upwind difference method.For the two-dimensional case,the finite analytic method still has a better performance.In the three-dimensional variational assimilation experiment,the finite analytic method can effectively improve analysis field accuracy,and its effect is significantly better than the upwind difference and the central difference method.Moreover,it is still a more effective solution method in the strong flow region where the advective-diffusion filter performs most prominently.展开更多
Estimated ocean subsurface fields derived from satellite observations provide potential data sources for operational marine environmental monitoring and prediction systems.This study employs a statistic regression rec...Estimated ocean subsurface fields derived from satellite observations provide potential data sources for operational marine environmental monitoring and prediction systems.This study employs a statistic regression reconstruction method,in combination with domestic autonomous sea surface height and sea surface temperature observations from the Haiyang-2(HY-2)satellite fusion data,to establish an operational quasi-realtime three-dimensional(3D)temperature and salinity products over the Maritime Silk Road.These products feature a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25°and exhibit stability and continuity.We have demonstrated the accuracy of the reconstructed thermohaline fields in capturing the 3D thermohaline variations through comprehensive statistical evaluations,after comparing them against Argo observations and ocean analysis data from 2022.The results illustrate that the reconstructed fields effectively represent seasonal variations in oceanic subsurface structures,along with structural changes resulting from mesoscale processes,and the upper ocean’s responses to tropical cyclones.Furthermore,the incorporation of HY-2 satellite observations notably enhances the accuracy of temperature and salinity reconstructions in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and marginally improves salinity reconstruction accuracy in the North Indian Ocean when compared to the World Ocean Atlas 2018 monthly climatology thermohaline fields.As a result,the reconstructed product holds promise for providing quasi-real-time 3D temperature and salinity field information to facilitate fast decisionmaking during emergencies,and also offers foundational thermohaline fields for operational ocean reanalysis and forecasting systems.These contributions enhance the safety and stability of ocean subsurface activities and navigation.展开更多
An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region was detected during the 1960–2021 period.Shallowing trends stopped in mid-1980s,followed by a...An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region was detected during the 1960–2021 period.Shallowing trends stopped in mid-1980s,followed by a period of weak trends.The MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage,the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land,and the central parts of the South Indian sector.The newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian sector.The saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.展开更多
To explore the distribution and composition of phytoplankton community and their responses to environmental changes, summer net-collected phytoplankton and physicochemical parameters in the Hangzhou Bay during 2004–2...To explore the distribution and composition of phytoplankton community and their responses to environmental changes, summer net-collected phytoplankton and physicochemical parameters in the Hangzhou Bay during 2004–2010 were investigated. A total of four phyla and 84 species were identified, including 67 diatom and 12 dinoflagellate species. The dominant species con- stantly consisted of the diatoms, although the dominance of dinoflagellate and cyanobacteria increased recently. Due to great spa- tio-temporal variations in environmental factors(salinity, suspended solids, and nutrient concentration), significant heterogeneities in community compositions among different years and subregions(inner and middle sections, and bay mouth) were found based on the analyses of multidimensional scaling and similarity. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that salinity and Si/N were the main variables associated with algal assemblage. Compared with the historical data since the 1980 s, eutrophication(N, P, and N/P increased with decreasing Si/N) was exacerbated drastically. Moreover, climatic forcing and human activities resulted in a series of physical alterations, including sediment retention, temperature increase, and salinity decrease as well as reduction in water exchanges. All these changes induced obvious increases in cell density and Chl-a while decreases in species diversity and diatom-dinoflagellate ratio as well as the shifting of dominant species. Therefore, the long-term phytoplankton variations were closely related to anthropogenic and climatic perturbations in the Hangzhou Bay.展开更多
A nested numerical storm surge forecast model for the East China Sea is developed. Aone-way relaxing nest method is used to exchange the information between coarse grid and fine grid. In the inner boundary of the fin...A nested numerical storm surge forecast model for the East China Sea is developed. Aone-way relaxing nest method is used to exchange the information between coarse grid and fine grid. In the inner boundary of the fine grid model a transition area is set up to relax the forecast variables. This ensures that the forecast variables of the coarse model may transit to those of fine grid gradually, which enhances the model stability. By using this model, a number of hindcasts and forecast are performed for six severe storm surges caused by tropical cyclones in the East China Sea. The results show good agreement with the observations.展开更多
This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model (ICM)--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific (EA-WNP) climate by the Center for Monsoon System Res...This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model (ICM)--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific (EA-WNP) climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.展开更多
A 72-h fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting system was developed for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas. The forecasting model domain covers from from 15°S to 45°N in latitude and...A 72-h fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting system was developed for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas. The forecasting model domain covers from from 15°S to 45°N in latitude and 99°E to135°E in longitude including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Indonesian seas. To get precise initial conditions for the coupled forecasting model, the forecasting system conducts a 24-h hindcast simulation with data assimilation before forecasting. The Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter(EAKF) data assimilation method was adopted for the wave model MASNUM with assimilating Jason-2 significant wave height(SWH) data. The EAKF data assimilation method was also introduced to the ROMS model with assimilating sea surface temperature(SST), mean absolute dynamic topography(MADT) and Argo profiles data. To improve simulation of the structure of temperature and salinity, the vertical mixing scheme of the ocean model was improved by considering the surface wave induced vertical mixing and internal wave induced vertical mixing. The wave and current models were integrated from January 2014 to October 2015 driven by the ECMWF reanalysis 6 hourly mean dataset with data assimilation. Then the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean forecasting system was carried out 14 months operational running since November 2015. The forecasting outputs include atmospheric forecast products, wave forecast products and ocean forecast products. A series of observation data are used to evaluate the coupled forecasting results, including the wind, SHW, ocean temperature and velocity.The forecasting results are in good agreement with observation data. The prediction practice for more than one year indicates that the coupled forecasting system performs stably and predict relatively accurate, which can support the shipping safety, the fisheries and the oil exploitation.展开更多
A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MIT-gcm) is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the N...A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MIT-gcm) is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the Na-tional Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China (NMEFC), and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializa-tions: (1) the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E). Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmo-spheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS.展开更多
Numerical sea ice forecasting products during the ninth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(9th CHINARE-Arctic)from Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System(ArcIOPS)of National Marine Environmental Forecasting Cente...Numerical sea ice forecasting products during the ninth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(9th CHINARE-Arctic)from Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System(ArcIOPS)of National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China are evaluated against satellite-retrieved sea ice concentration data,in-situ sea ice thickness observations,and sea ice products from Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System(PIOMAS).The results show that ArcIOPS forecasts reliable sea ice concentration and thickness evolution.Deviations of the 168 h sea ice concentration and thickness forecasts with respect to the observations are less than 0.2 and 0.36 m.Comparison between outputs of the latest version of ArcIOPS and that of its previous version shows that the latest version has a substantial improvement on sea ice concentration forecasts due to data assimilation of new observational component,the sea surface temperature.Meanwhile,the sea ice volume product of the latest version is more close to the PIOMAS product.In the future,with more and more kinds of observations to be assimilated,the high-resolution version of ArcIOPS will be put into operational running and benefit Chinese scientific and commercial activities in the Arctic Ocean.展开更多
China launched its Arctic research program and organized the first Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-Arctic) in 1999. By 2016, six further expeditions had been conducted using the R/V Xuelong. The...China launched its Arctic research program and organized the first Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-Arctic) in 1999. By 2016, six further expeditions had been conducted using the R/V Xuelong. The main region of the expeditions has focused on the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean for sea ice observations. The expeditions have used icebreaker, helicopter, boat, floe, and buoy platforms to perform these observations. Some new technologies have been developed, in particular, the underway auto-observing system for sea ice thickness using an electromagnetic instrument. The long-term measurement systems, e.g., the sea ice mass balance buoy, allow observations to extend from summer to winter. Some international cooperation projects have been involved in CHINARE-Arctic, especially the "Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-Term Environmental Studies" project funded by the European Union during the International Polar Year. Arctic sea ice observations have been used to verify remote sensing products, identify changes in Arctic sea ice, optimize the parameterizations of sea ice physical processes, and assess the accessibility of ice-covered waters, especially around the Northeast Passage. Recommendations are provided as guidance to future CHINARE-Arctic projects. For example, a standardized operation system of sea ice observations should be contracted, and the observations of sea ice dynamics should be enhanced. The upcoming launch of a new Chinese icebreaker will allow increased ship time in support of future CHINARE Arctic oceanographic investigations.展开更多
In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because o...In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41690124the Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources under contract No.JG2007+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42006034,41690120 and 41530961the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)under contract No.311021009.
文摘A new nudging scheme is proposed for the operational prediction system of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC)of China,mainly aimed at improving El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)predictions.Compared with the origin nudging scheme of NMEFC,the new scheme adds a nudge assimilation for wind components,and increases the nudging weight at the subsurface.Increasing the nudging weight at the subsurface directly improved the simulation performance of the ocean component,while assimilating low-level wind components not only affected the atmospheric component but also benefited the oceanic simulation.Hindcast experiments showed that the new scheme remarkably improved both ENSO and IOD prediction skills.The skillful prediction lead time of ENSO was up to 11 months,1 month longer than a hindcast using the original nudging scheme.Skillful prediction of IOD could be made 4–5 months ahead by the new scheme,with a 0.2 higher correlation at a 3-month lead time.These prediction skills approach the level of some of the best state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models.Improved ENSO and IOD predictions occurred across all seasons,but mainly for target months in the boreal spring for the ENSO and the boreal spring and summer for the IOD.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42275024 and 42105040the Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2022YFE0203500+3 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under contract Nos 2023B1515020009 and 2024B1515040024the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS under contract No.2020340the Special Fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.SCSIO2023QY01the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou under contract No.2024A04J6275.
文摘This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.
基金funded by "The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee" of "The National Key Research and Development Program of China"[grant number2016YFC1401409]
文摘A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results.
文摘The 3rd Korea-China joint workshop on Marine Environment Forecast System for the Yellow and East China Seas, and Oceanic Monitoring and Prediction System of Radionuclides for Nuclear Safety was co-hosted by Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute (KORDI), National Marine Environment Forecasting Center (NMEFC) and The First Institute of Oceanography (FIO), at the President Hotel in Seoul, during the period of April 25 29, 2012.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41576029, 41976221 and 42030410the National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No. 2019YFA0606702the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology。
文摘Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Ni?a events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-normal precipitation during the first boreal spring, but above-normal precipitation during the second year. The difference in spring precipitation over southern China is correlative to the variation in western North Pacific anomalous cyclone(WNPC), which can in turn be attributed to the different sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) over the Tropical Pacific. The remote forcing of negative SSTA in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and the local air-sea interaction in the western North Pacific are the usual causes of WNPC formation and maintenance.SSTA in the first spring is stronger than those in the second spring. As a result, the intensity of WNPC in the first year is stronger, which is more likely to reduce the moisture in southern China by changing the moisture transport, leading to prolonged precipitation deficits over southern China. However, the tropical SSTA signals in the second year are too weak to induce the formation and maintenance of WNPC and the below-normal precipitation over southern China. Thus, the variation in tropical SSTA signals between two consecutive springs during multiyear La Ni?a events leads to obvious differences in the spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly in southern China by causing the different WNPC response.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42076202, 42122046, 42206208 and 42261134536)the Open Research Cruise NORC2022-10+NORC2022-303 supported by NSFC shiptime Sharing Projects 42149910+7 种基金the new Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE, DAMO Academy Young Fellow, Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (EarthLab)sponsored by the US National Science Foundationsupported by NASA Awards 80NSSC17K0565, 80NSSC21K1191, and 80NSSC22K0046by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282supported by NOAA (Grant No. NA19NES4320002 to CISESS-MD at the University of Maryland)supported by the Young Talent Support Project of Guangzhou Association for Science and Technologyfunded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in agreement between INGV, ENEA, and GNV SpA shipping company that provides hospitality on its commercial vessels
文摘The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41907180).
文摘Using the observation data in Yongxing Island,South China Sea(SCS)from December 2013 to November 2018,the multiple time scales variation of atmospheric CO_(2)and CH_(4)were analyzed to understand their temporal variation characteristics and controlling factors.The regional-averaged background mole fractions of CO_(2)and CH_(4)both show a single-period sinusoidal variation with a lower value at noon and a higher value in the wee hours.In the seasonal scale,they exhibited a significant seasonal difference with higher values in winter and lower values in summer.In the annual scale,CO_(2)and CH_(4)both show an increasing trend,with an annual growth rate of approximately 3.2 ppm and 12 ppb,respectively.The annual growth rate at this site was higher than the global average.The change in atmospheric CO_(2)and CH_(4)in Yongxing Island was probably caused by the higher emission of the surrounding areas and the airflows driven by monsoon.Hopefully,the long-term and high-resolution greenhouse gases(GHGs)dataset will aid relevent researchers and decision-makers in performing more in-depth studies for GHG sources in order to derive effective strategies.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42076214.
文摘Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41976221the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979.This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years.The+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO phase.The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO periods.However,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend.The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations.The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT anomalies.Furthermore,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role.In the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2022YFC3104804,2021YFC3101501,and 2017YFC1404103the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction of China under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-04the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41876014,41606039,and 11801402.
文摘An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion equation.Because of the directionality of the advection term,the discrete method needs to be chosen very carefully.The finite analytic method is an alternative scheme to solve the advection-diffusion equation.As a combination of analytical and numerical methods,it not only has high calculation accuracy but also holds the characteristic of the auto upwind.To demonstrate its ability,the one-dimensional steady and unsteady advection-diffusion equation numerical examples are respectively solved by the finite analytic method.The more widely used upwind difference method is used as a control approach.The result indicates that the finite analytic method has higher accuracy than the upwind difference method.For the two-dimensional case,the finite analytic method still has a better performance.In the three-dimensional variational assimilation experiment,the finite analytic method can effectively improve analysis field accuracy,and its effect is significantly better than the upwind difference and the central difference method.Moreover,it is still a more effective solution method in the strong flow region where the advective-diffusion filter performs most prominently.
基金The China-ASEAN Marine Cooperation Foundationthe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.B210203041+1 种基金the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province under contract No.KYCX23_0657the opening project of the Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology of Ministry of Natural Resources under contract No.521037412.
文摘Estimated ocean subsurface fields derived from satellite observations provide potential data sources for operational marine environmental monitoring and prediction systems.This study employs a statistic regression reconstruction method,in combination with domestic autonomous sea surface height and sea surface temperature observations from the Haiyang-2(HY-2)satellite fusion data,to establish an operational quasi-realtime three-dimensional(3D)temperature and salinity products over the Maritime Silk Road.These products feature a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25°and exhibit stability and continuity.We have demonstrated the accuracy of the reconstructed thermohaline fields in capturing the 3D thermohaline variations through comprehensive statistical evaluations,after comparing them against Argo observations and ocean analysis data from 2022.The results illustrate that the reconstructed fields effectively represent seasonal variations in oceanic subsurface structures,along with structural changes resulting from mesoscale processes,and the upper ocean’s responses to tropical cyclones.Furthermore,the incorporation of HY-2 satellite observations notably enhances the accuracy of temperature and salinity reconstructions in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and marginally improves salinity reconstruction accuracy in the North Indian Ocean when compared to the World Ocean Atlas 2018 monthly climatology thermohaline fields.As a result,the reconstructed product holds promise for providing quasi-real-time 3D temperature and salinity field information to facilitate fast decisionmaking during emergencies,and also offers foundational thermohaline fields for operational ocean reanalysis and forecasting systems.These contributions enhance the safety and stability of ocean subsurface activities and navigation.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41605052。
文摘An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region was detected during the 1960–2021 period.Shallowing trends stopped in mid-1980s,followed by a period of weak trends.The MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage,the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land,and the central parts of the South Indian sector.The newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian sector.The saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.
基金provided by the Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiangfunded by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB428903)+2 种基金the National Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China(201305009 and 201305043-3)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41206103)Basic Scientific Research of Second Institute of Oceanography,SOA(JG1222)
文摘To explore the distribution and composition of phytoplankton community and their responses to environmental changes, summer net-collected phytoplankton and physicochemical parameters in the Hangzhou Bay during 2004–2010 were investigated. A total of four phyla and 84 species were identified, including 67 diatom and 12 dinoflagellate species. The dominant species con- stantly consisted of the diatoms, although the dominance of dinoflagellate and cyanobacteria increased recently. Due to great spa- tio-temporal variations in environmental factors(salinity, suspended solids, and nutrient concentration), significant heterogeneities in community compositions among different years and subregions(inner and middle sections, and bay mouth) were found based on the analyses of multidimensional scaling and similarity. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that salinity and Si/N were the main variables associated with algal assemblage. Compared with the historical data since the 1980 s, eutrophication(N, P, and N/P increased with decreasing Si/N) was exacerbated drastically. Moreover, climatic forcing and human activities resulted in a series of physical alterations, including sediment retention, temperature increase, and salinity decrease as well as reduction in water exchanges. All these changes induced obvious increases in cell density and Chl-a while decreases in species diversity and diatom-dinoflagellate ratio as well as the shifting of dominant species. Therefore, the long-term phytoplankton variations were closely related to anthropogenic and climatic perturbations in the Hangzhou Bay.
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 40176001 the Hi-tech Research and Development Program of China under contract No. 818-01-04.
文摘A nested numerical storm surge forecast model for the East China Sea is developed. Aone-way relaxing nest method is used to exchange the information between coarse grid and fine grid. In the inner boundary of the fine grid model a transition area is set up to relax the forecast variables. This ensures that the forecast variables of the coarse model may transit to those of fine grid gradually, which enhances the model stability. By using this model, a number of hindcasts and forecast are performed for six severe storm surges caused by tropical cyclones in the East China Sea. The results show good agreement with the observations.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos.2012CB955604 and 2014CB953903)the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant No.41375112)
文摘This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model (ICM)--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific (EA-WNP) climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2017YFC1404201the NSFCShandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No.U1606405+1 种基金the SOA Program on Global Change and AirSea Interactions under contract Nos GASI-IPOVAI-03 and GASI-IPOVAI-02the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41606040,41876029,41776016,41706035 and 41606036
文摘A 72-h fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting system was developed for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas. The forecasting model domain covers from from 15°S to 45°N in latitude and 99°E to135°E in longitude including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Indonesian seas. To get precise initial conditions for the coupled forecasting model, the forecasting system conducts a 24-h hindcast simulation with data assimilation before forecasting. The Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter(EAKF) data assimilation method was adopted for the wave model MASNUM with assimilating Jason-2 significant wave height(SWH) data. The EAKF data assimilation method was also introduced to the ROMS model with assimilating sea surface temperature(SST), mean absolute dynamic topography(MADT) and Argo profiles data. To improve simulation of the structure of temperature and salinity, the vertical mixing scheme of the ocean model was improved by considering the surface wave induced vertical mixing and internal wave induced vertical mixing. The wave and current models were integrated from January 2014 to October 2015 driven by the ECMWF reanalysis 6 hourly mean dataset with data assimilation. Then the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean forecasting system was carried out 14 months operational running since November 2015. The forecasting outputs include atmospheric forecast products, wave forecast products and ocean forecast products. A series of observation data are used to evaluate the coupled forecasting results, including the wind, SHW, ocean temperature and velocity.The forecasting results are in good agreement with observation data. The prediction practice for more than one year indicates that the coupled forecasting system performs stably and predict relatively accurate, which can support the shipping safety, the fisheries and the oil exploitation.
基金The Ocean Public Welfare Project of China under contract No.201205007the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41176169,41376005,41376188 and 41106165
文摘A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MIT-gcm) is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the Na-tional Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China (NMEFC), and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializa-tions: (1) the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E). Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmo-spheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS.
基金This paper is a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction(YOPP),a flagship activity of the Polar Prediction Project(PPP),initiated by the World Weather Research Programme(WWRP)of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)The authors thank the University of Bremen for the AMSR2 data,the University of Hamburg for the SMOS data,the Alfred-Wegener-Institut,Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung for the CryoSat-2 data,the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service for the GMPE SST data,the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for the OSISAF data,the Polar Research Institute of China for the EM31 data,and the University of Washington for the PIOMAS data+2 种基金The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers for the constructive commentsThis work is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant nos.2016YFC1402700,2017YFE0111700)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.41506224).
文摘Numerical sea ice forecasting products during the ninth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(9th CHINARE-Arctic)from Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System(ArcIOPS)of National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China are evaluated against satellite-retrieved sea ice concentration data,in-situ sea ice thickness observations,and sea ice products from Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System(PIOMAS).The results show that ArcIOPS forecasts reliable sea ice concentration and thickness evolution.Deviations of the 168 h sea ice concentration and thickness forecasts with respect to the observations are less than 0.2 and 0.36 m.Comparison between outputs of the latest version of ArcIOPS and that of its previous version shows that the latest version has a substantial improvement on sea ice concentration forecasts due to data assimilation of new observational component,the sea surface temperature.Meanwhile,the sea ice volume product of the latest version is more close to the PIOMAS product.In the future,with more and more kinds of observations to be assimilated,the high-resolution version of ArcIOPS will be put into operational running and benefit Chinese scientific and commercial activities in the Arctic Ocean.
基金supported financially by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 41476170)National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant no. 2016YFC1400300)Chinese Polar Environment Comprehensive Investigation and Assessment Program (Grant nos. CHINARE03-01/04-02/04-04)
文摘China launched its Arctic research program and organized the first Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-Arctic) in 1999. By 2016, six further expeditions had been conducted using the R/V Xuelong. The main region of the expeditions has focused on the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean for sea ice observations. The expeditions have used icebreaker, helicopter, boat, floe, and buoy platforms to perform these observations. Some new technologies have been developed, in particular, the underway auto-observing system for sea ice thickness using an electromagnetic instrument. The long-term measurement systems, e.g., the sea ice mass balance buoy, allow observations to extend from summer to winter. Some international cooperation projects have been involved in CHINARE-Arctic, especially the "Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-Term Environmental Studies" project funded by the European Union during the International Polar Year. Arctic sea ice observations have been used to verify remote sensing products, identify changes in Arctic sea ice, optimize the parameterizations of sea ice physical processes, and assess the accessibility of ice-covered waters, especially around the Northeast Passage. Recommendations are provided as guidance to future CHINARE-Arctic projects. For example, a standardized operation system of sea ice observations should be contracted, and the observations of sea ice dynamics should be enhanced. The upcoming launch of a new Chinese icebreaker will allow increased ship time in support of future CHINARE Arctic oceanographic investigations.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC1402000)
文摘In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.