Preliminary Exploration on Socialization of Meteorological Services

Socialization of meteorological services is important guarantee of servicing national major development strategy,strategic selection of adapting to national reform,urgent need of meeting the development of related industries,and necessary way of solving public demand on meticulous,targeted and personalized meteorological services. At present,socialization construction of meteorological services in China still has many problems,such as weak service capability of intelligent weather,inadequate and imbalanced urban-rural and regional development,insufficient sharing and opening of meteorological data,and deficient role of social organization. It should vigorously impel socialization of meteorological services by exploring sharing and opening mechanism of basic meteorological data,establishing policy,regulation and standard system adapting to socialization of meteorological services,establishing operation mechanism for socialization of meteorological services of government dominance combining market,enriching content and means of meteorological socialization service.

Multimodel Ensemble Forecast of Global Horizontal Irradiance at PV Power Stations Based on Dynamic Variable Weight

In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration,the China Meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong Province.The results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not obvious.Specifically,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m^(-2),particularly below 400 W m^(-2),with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W m^(-2).As for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI forecasts.Moreover,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Solar Energy Resources in Tibet

The Tibet Plateau is one of the regions with the richest solar energy resources in the world.In the process of achieving carbon neutrality in China,the development and utilization of solar energy resources in the region will play an important role.In this study,the gridded solar resource data with 1km resolution in Tibet were obtained by spatial correction and downscaling of SMARTS model.On this basis,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of solar energy resources in the region in the past 30 years(1991–2020)are finely evaluated,and the annual global horizontal radiation resource is calculated.The results show that:1)The average annual global horizontal radiation amount in Tibet is 1816 kWh/m^(2).More than 60%of the area belongs to the“Most abundant”(GHI≥1750 kWh/m^(2))area of China’s solar energy resources category A,and nearly 40%belongs to the“Quite abundant”(1400≤GHI<1750)area of China’s solar energy resource category B.2)In space,the solar energy resources in Tibet increased gradually from north to south and from east to west.Lhasa,Central and Eastern Shigatse,Shannan,and Southwestern Ali are the most abundant cities,with a maximum annual radiation level of 2189 kWh/m2.3)In terms of time,the total horizontal radiation in Tibet was the highest in May and the lowest in December.74%of the total area belongs to the“Very stable”(R_(w)≥0.47)area of solar resource stability category A,and 26%belongs to the“stable”(0.36≤R_(w)<0.47)area of solar resource stability category B.Solar energy resources in the region show the characteristics of both strong and stable.Average solar energy resources in the region have shown a fluctuating downward trend over the past 30 years,with an average decline of about 12.86(kWh/m2)per decade.4)In terms of solar radiation resources reaching the earth’s surface,the theoretical total amount of annual horizontal radiation in Tibet is about 240.07 billion tons of standard coal or 222.91 billion kilowatts on average.

Relationship between Calligraphy and Meteorology

Since ancient times,calligraphy and meteorology have had an inseparable relationship.Wang Xizhi s Prologue to the Collection of Poems Composed at the Orchid Pavilion records the beautiful scenery of mild wind and bright sun,as well as the relaxed and joyful mood of people in such weather.Su Shi s Cold Food Calligraphy Copybook records the scenery of solar terms and the author s psychological changes during these solar terms through calligraphy.The Quick Snow and Clear Time Calligraphy Copybook also reflects the grandeur of snowy days and the customs of literati recording weather and sharing it with friends.In Sun Guoting s Shupu,it is clearly stated that the third element of the"five harmony and five obedience"refers to the clear sky,humid air,and pleasant climate,and excellent climatic conditions are conducive to writing.

Evaluation on the Influence of Different Meteorological Government Micro-blog

Taking Meteorological Knowledge official micro-blog ＂ Meteorological Knowledge＂ and Beijing Meteorological Bureau official micro-blog ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂ as the research objects,the differences of different types of meteorological government micro-blog and the contribution of each factor were analyzed by comparing changes of the number of fans,micro-blog comments and forwarding and other key elements during March1 to May 31 in 2012. The results showed that the number of fans was one of important indexes to determine the influence of meteorological government micro-blog,and the high active fans played a more prominent role. During the period of study,the fans number of ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂ was far more than ＂ Meteorological Knowledge＂,the daily micro-blog released number and comment forwarding number were both more than ＂ Meteorological knowledge＂,but the proportion of active fans of ＂ Meteorological knowledge＂ was larger than ＂ Meteorology Beijing＂. Timeliness was of greater contribution to advancing the meteorological government micro-blog influence. During the period of study,the proportions of comments and forwarding number of morning weather forecast were the largest,the evening weather forecast took the second place,and the noon was the smallest.But the influence of noon weather forecast micro-blog increased most highly approximately by 15% because of the higher timeliness. The content and form also made great contribution to the influence of meteorological government micro-blog. Comparison of different types of meteorological micro-blog showed that,the number of fans and the influence of meteorological government micro-blog which mainly published real-time meteorological information were larger than which mainly published meteorological popular science knowledge.

Analysis of Meteorological Conditions for Fog and Haze in the Eastern and Central Regions of China during January, 2013

Based on the data of conventional meteorological observation, NCEP reanalysis data and atmospheric composition observation, a comprehensive analysis of the three kinds of persistent fog and haze in eastern China in January 2013 was carried out. The results show that the process of persistent fog and haze is in the background of static weather, and the zonal circulation in the middle and high latitudes is not conducive to the south of the cold air. In the eastern part of China, near-surface wind speed is low under the controlled of pressure field, which is conducive to the formation and maintenance of haze. The formation of inversion layer, the height of the mixed layer, the stratified structure of the upper dry layer, the ground wind speed and so on can represent the static stability of the atmosphere. In the actual forecast, fog and haze can be distinguished from the angle of relative humidity, PM2.5 concentration, diurnal variation characteristics, mixed layer height and energy structure, industrial structure and local and surrounding economic development level.

Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and Its Impact on the Forecast of the“21·7”Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall

Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional observations for the“21·7”Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study.The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm,compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations,and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations.The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate.The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A,which compensates for the lack of ocean observations.The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity,which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere.Conversely,the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed;therefore,the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.

Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

With consecutive occurrences of drought disasters in China in recent years, it is important to estimate their potential impacts on regional crop production. In this study, we detect the impacts of drought on wheat and maize yield and their changes at a 0.5＆#176;＆#215;0.5＆#176; grid scale in the wheat-maize rotation planting area in the North China Plain under the A1B climate change scenario using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer （DSSAT） model and the outputs of the regional climate modeling system-Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies （PRECIS）. Self-calibrating palmer drought severity index was used as drought recognition indicator. Two time slices used for the study were the baseline （1961-1990） and 40 years of 2011-2050. The results indicate that the potential planting region for double crop system of wheat-maize would expend northward. The statistic conclusions of crop simulations varied considerably between wheat and maize. In disaster-affected seasons, wheat yield would increase in the future compared with baseline yields, whereas in opposite for maize yield. Potential crop yield reductions caused by drought would be lower for wheat and higher for maize, with a similar trend found for the ratio of potential crop yield reductions for both crops. It appears that the negative impact of drought on maize was larger than that on wheat under climate change A1B scenario.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON THE WIND FIELD STRUCTURE OF A MOUNTAINOUS AREA BESIDE SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING THE LANDFALL OF TYPHOON MOLAVE

Leveraging the commercial CFD software FLUENT,the fine-scale three-dimensional wind structure over the Paiya Mountains on the Dapeng Peninsula near Shenzhen,a city on the seashore of South China Sea,during the landfall of Typhoon Molave has been simulated and analyzed.Through the study,a conceptual wind structure model for mountainous areas under strong wind condition is established and the following conclusions are obtained as follows:(1)FLUENT can reasonably simulate a three-dimensional wind structure over mountainous areas under strong wind conditions;(2)the kinetic effect of a mountain can intensify wind speed in the windward side of the mountain and the area over the mountain peak;and(3)in the leeward side of the mountain,wind speed is relatively lower with relatively stronger wind shear and turbulence.

Hydraulic model with roughness coefficient updating method based on Kalman filter for channel flood forecast

A real-time channel flood forecast model was developed to simulate channel flow in plain rivers based on the dynamic wave theory. Taking into consideration channel shape differences along the channel, a roughness updating technique was developed using the Kalman filter method to update Manning＇s roughness coefficient at each time step of the calculation processes. Channel shapes were simplified as rectangles, triangles, and parabolas, and the relationships between hydraulic radius and water depth were developed for plain rivers. Based on the relationship between the Froude number and the inertia terms of the momentum equation in the Saint-Venant equations, the relationship between Manning＇s roughness coefficient and water depth was obtained. Using the channel of the Huaihe River from Wangjiaba to Lutaizi stations as a case, to test the performance and rationality of the present flood routing model, the original hydraulic model was compared with the developed model. Results show that the stage hydrographs calculated by the developed flood routing model with the updated Manning＇s roughness coefficient have a good agreement with the observed stage hydrographs. This model performs better than the original hydraulic model.

CORRECTION METHODS FOR THERMAL OFFSET ERRORS IN TBQ-2-B PYRANOMETERS

Due to the existence of thermal offsets,global solar irradiances measured by pyranometers are smaller than actual values,and errors are larger in the daytime.Until now,there is no universally-recognized correction method for thermal offset errors.Therefore,it is imperative to identify a convenient and effective correction method.Five correction methods were evaluated based on the data measured from a field experiment from 23 January to 15 November,2011.Results have shown:1) Temporal variation characteristics of thermal offsets in the four tested pyranometers are consistent.2) Among the five methods,non-dimensional quantity method is suggested for use to correct thermal offsets,because it is convenient and no modification of instruments is required.If collocated net longwave radiation and wind speed data are available and their uncertainties are small,the historical solar radiation datasets can also be corrected.And correction effects by the method are better.

Initiation and Evolution of Long-Lived Eastward-Propagating Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Second-Step Terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for model-based sensitivity testing to investigate the initiation and evolution of these types of MCSs as well as their impact on downstream areas.We subject each MCS to a semi-idealized(CNTL)simulation and a sensitivity(NOLH)simulation that neglects condensational heating in the formation region.The CNTL experiment reveals convection forms in the region downstream of a shortwave trough typified by persistent southwesterly winds in the low-to midtroposphere.Upon merging with other convective systems,moist convection develops into an MCS,which propagates eastward under the influence of mid-tropospheric westerlies,and moves out of the second-step terrain.The MCS then merges with pre-existing local convection over the plains;the merged convection reinforces the cyclonic wind perturbation into a mesoscale vortex at 850 hPa.While this vortex moves eastward to regions with local vortex at 850 hPa,another vortex at 925 hPa is also intensified.Finally,the vortices at 850 and 925 hPa merge together and develop into a mesoscale convective vortex(MCV).In contrast,MCSs fail to form and move eastward in the NOLH experiment.In the absence of eastward-propagating MCSs,moist convection and mesoscale vortices still appear in the plains,but the vortex strength and precipitation intensity are significantly weakened.It is suggested the eastward-propagating MCSs over the second-step terrain significantly impact the development and enhancement of moist convection and vortices in the downstream areas.

Estimating daily actual evapotranspiration of a rice–wheat rotation system in typical farmland in the Huai River Basin using a two-step model and two one-step models

The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of three models for estimating daily evapotranspiration(ET) by employing flux observation data from three years(2007, 2008 and 2009) during the growing seasons of winter wheat and rice crops cultivated in a farmland ecosystem(Shouxian County) located in the Huai River Basin(HRB), China. The first model is a two-step model(PM-Kc);the other two are one-step models(e.g., Rana-Katerji(R-K) and advection-aridity(AA)). The results showed that the energy closure degrees of eddy covariance(EC) data during winter wheat and rice-growing seasons were reasonable in the HRB, with values ranging from 0.84 to 0.91 and R2 of approximately 0.80. Daily ET of winter wheat showed a slow decreasing trend followed by a rapid increase, while that of rice presented a decreasing trend after an increase. After calibrating the crop coefficient(Kc), the PM–Kc model performed better than the model using the Kc recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization(FAO). The calibrated key parameters of the R-K model and AA model showed better universality. After calibration, the simulation performance of the PM-Kc model was satisfactory. Both the R-K model and AA model underestimated the daily ET of winter wheat and rice. Compared with that of the R-K model, the simulation result of the AA model was better, especially in the simulation of daily ET of rice. Overall, this research highlighted the consistency of the PM-Kc model to estimate the water demand for rice and wheat crops in the HRB and in similar climatic regions in the world.

An Improved Method for Correction of Air Temperature Measured Using Different Radiation Shields

The variation of air temperature measurement errors using two different radiation shields （DTR502B Vaisala,Finland,and HYTFZ01,Huayun Tongda Satcom,China） was studied.Datasets were collected in the field at the Daxing weather station in Beijing from June 2011 to May 2012.Most air temperature values obtained with these two commonly used radiation shields were lower than the reference records obtained with the new Fiber Reinforced Polymers （FRP） Stevenson screen.In most cases,the air temperature errors when using the two devices were smaller on overcast and rainy days than on sunny days; and smaller when using the imported rather than the Chinese shield.The measured errors changed sharply at sunrise and sunset,and reached maxima at noon.Their diurnal variation characteristics were,naturally,related to changes in solar radiation.The relationships between the record errors,global radiation,and wind speed were nonlinear.An improved correction method was proposed based on the approach described by Nakamura and Mahrt （2005） （NM05）,in which the impact of the solar zenith angle （SZA） on the temperature error is considered and extreme errors due to changes in SZA can be corrected effectively.Measurement errors were reduced significantly after correction by either method for both shields.The error reduction rate using the improved correction method for the Chinese and imported shields were 3.3％ and 40.4％ higher than those using the NM05 method,respectively.

Characteristics of Drag Coefficient in Different Coastal Regions of the South China Sea Under Tropical Cyclones-An Observational Study

To investigate the values of 10-m drag coefficient(CD ) in different coastal areas under the influence of tropical cyclones, the present study used the observational data from four towers in different coastal areas of the South China Sea(SCS) during six tropical cyclone(TC) passages, and employed the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method.The analysis of footprint showed that the fluxes at Zhizai Island(ZZI), Sanjiao Island(SJI) and Donghai Island(DHI)were influenced basically by the ocean, and the flux at Shangyang Town(SYT) was influenced mainly by the land. The results showed that the dependence relationships of CD on 10-m wind speed(U10) in four different coastal areas under the influence of TCs were different. CD at ZZI and SJI initially increased and then decreased as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the ocean. CD at ZZI and SJI represented the values over shallow water with seawater depths of ~7 m and ~2 m, respectively. Moreover, the critical wind speed at which CD peaked gradually decreased as the seawater depth became shallower in the coastal areas. CD at DHI and SYT decreased monotonously as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the land. CD at DHI represented the value over the transition zone from shallow water to coastal land, and CD at SYT represented the value over the coastal land. Meanwhile, the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method were compared at ZZI and SYT during TC passages. It was found that their CD values obtained by the two methods were close. Finally, the parameterizations of observed u*and CD as a function of U10 over four different coastal areas were given under the influence of high winds. These parameterizations of observed CD may be used in high-resolution numerical models for landfalling TC forecast.

Characteristics of Desertification Change in Lake Basin Area in Gangcha County

Qinghai Lake Basin area in Gangcha county is selected as the study area in terms of desertification change features in this paper.Based on the remote sensing(RS)and global positioning system(GPS)technologies,the desertification information range from 1989 to 2014 in the study area is extracted.Using the method of the decision tree,the desertification in the research area is been divided into four grades including mild desertification,moderate desertification,severe desertification and serious desertification.The change characteristics of desertification in the study area were analyzed in detail,which showed that the desertification in the study area experienced a process of first development and then a reversal.The rapid development of desertification appears in the 1990s,where about 1101.22 kilometers of desertification area was increased in this stage.Since the twenty-first Century,the desertification is gradually significant recovered and local area exist intensified desertification.There are tendencies of interactive transform in different types of desertification.The tendencies of different degrees of desertification land are rising,and there’re some differences in rising rates,where the expansion rate of moderate desertification is the biggest,increasing by 7.27 kilometers per year.

Classification of Desertification on the North Bank of Qinghai Lake

In this paper,RS,GIS and GPS technologies are used to interpret the remote sensing images of the north shore of Qinghai Lake from 1987 to 2014 according to the inversion results of vegetation coverage(FVC),albedo,land surface temperature(LST),soil moisture(WET)and other major parameters after image preprocessing,such as radiometric correction,geometric correction and atmospheric correction.On this basis,the decision tree classification method based on landsat8 remote sensing image is used to classify the desertification land in this area,and the development and change of desertification in this period are analyzed.The results show that the fluctuation of desertification land area in this area increased during the study period,but from 2003 to 2014,the land area of mild desertification,moderate desertification and severe desertification landwere respectively decreased 0.92,145.89 and 29.39 km2,while the area of serious desertification land still has a slow increasing trend.Whether the driving force of desertification change trend in this area is caused by human factors or global change needs to be further studied.

Simulated Influence of Mountainous Wind Farms Operations on Local Climate

Renewable energy sources,especially wind power,were believed to be able to slow down global warming;however,evidence in recent years shows that wind farms may also induce climate change.With the rapid development of wind power industry,the number of wind farms installed in mountains has gradually increased.Therefore,it is necessary to study the impact of wind farms in mountainous areas on local climate.The Suizhou and Dawu wind farms in northern Hubei Province were chosen for the present study on the impact of wind farm operations on the local climate in mountainous areas.The mesoscale meteorological numerical model Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)and the Fitch model,together with turbulence correction factor,were used to simulate wind farm operations and study their effects on local climate.The results showed the characteristics of wind speed attenuation in mountainous wind farms:the amplitude and range of wind speed attenuation were stronger in the nighttime than in the daytime,and stronger in summer than in winter.The surface temperature increased and became more significant in summer.However,a cooling variation was observed above the surface warming center.The height of this center was higher in the daytime than it was in the nighttime.The latent heat flux in the wind farms decreased at night,accompanied by an increase in sensible heat flux.However,these changes were not significant.Some differences were observed between the impact of wind farms on the climate in the plains and the mountains.Such differences are more likely to be related to complex terrain conditions,climate conditions,and the density of wind turbines.The present study may provide support for the development and construction of wind farms in mountainous areas.

Evolution of Desertification Types on the North Shore of Qinghai Lake

Land desertification is a widely concerned ecological environment problem.Studying the evolution trend of desertification types is of great significance to prevent and control land desertification.In this study,we applied the decision tree classification method,to study the land area and temporal and spatial change law of different types of desertification in the North Bank of Qinghai Lake area from 1987 to 2014,based on the current land use situation and TM remote sensing image data of Haiyan County,Qinghai Province,The results show that the area of mild desertification land and moderate desertification land in the study area has decreased,while the area of severe desertification land and extreme desertification land has increased significantly in the past 30 years.The area of desertification land decreased by 4.02 km2,of which the area of mild and moderate desertification land decreased by 39.73 km2 and 36.8 km2 respectively,and the area of severe and extreme desertification land increased by 32.78 km2 and 39.73 km2 respectively.As for the mutual transformation relationship,the transformation from severe desertification land to extreme desertification land is the main,and the junction of severe desertification land and extreme desertification land is the sensitive area of transformation.In the north shore of Qinghai Lake,the sandy land tends to expand eastward.The research provides reference basis for local land desertification monitoring,and has a great guidance for local effective land desertification and soil and water conservation.

Impact of the Barents Sea SST in Autumn on the Winter Climate in Northeast China

We studied effects of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Barents Sea in autumn on the atmospheric circulation in northeast China in winter, using the NCEP reanalysis data and sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Hadley Center. The results show that the ocean thermal conditions in the Barents Sea in autumn can be used as an important reference factor for predicting the cold air activity in China. When the sea surface temperature anomaly of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the sea-level pressure anomaly elevated in eastern China on December, northeast China and southeastern Russia on January and February. In the years when the SSTA of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the abnormal high-pressure ridge developed over Europe, and the geopotential height in western China appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa. At 1000 hPa, the Mongolia high-pressure increased and the northerly airflow strengthened the cold high-latitude air broke out to the south, which was easy to affect northeast and north of China. In negative SSTA years, the high-pressure ridge was west to the north Atlantic, and the geopotential height in central and northern Siberia appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa;the Mongolia high-pressure was weakened at 1000 hPa.