Structured Multi-Head Attention Stock Index Prediction Method Based Adaptive Public Opinion Sentiment Vector

The present study examines the impact of short-term public opinion sentiment on the secondary market,with a focus on the potential for such sentiment to cause dramatic stock price fluctuations and increase investment risk.The quantification of investment sentiment indicators and the persistent analysis of their impact has been a complex and significant area of research.In this paper,a structured multi-head attention stock index prediction method based adaptive public opinion sentiment vector is proposed.The proposedmethod utilizes an innovative approach to transform numerous investor comments on social platforms over time into public opinion sentiment vectors expressing complex sentiments.It then analyzes the continuous impact of these vectors on the market through the use of aggregating techniques and public opinion data via a structured multi-head attention mechanism.The experimental results demonstrate that the public opinion sentiment vector can provide more comprehensive feedback on market sentiment than traditional sentiment polarity analysis.Furthermore,the multi-head attention mechanism is shown to improve prediction accuracy through attention convergence on each type of input information separately.Themean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the proposedmethod is 0.463%,a reduction of 0.294% compared to the benchmark attention algorithm.Additionally,the market backtesting results indicate that the return was 24.560%,an improvement of 8.202% compared to the benchmark algorithm.These results suggest that themarket trading strategy based on thismethod has the potential to improve trading profits.

Analysis on stability of strategic alliance: A game theory perspective

Strategic alliance has suffered much instabilities since its first implementation. Scholars have carried out many em- bedded, precise and comprehensive researches from both theory and empiricism. Here we try to find certain stable solutions by employing game theory, in an attempt to construct theoretical bases for strategic alliance, which people called “one of the most important organizational innovation in the end of the 20th century” (Shi, 2001), to exploit its advantages in the process of glob- alization. Finally, this article puts forward some advices for its success.

Quantitative evaluation of the green production and consumption policies in China

Dual control of energy consumption is an effective method proposed in China to launch and deepen the transition in energy use.It has obtained favorable results;however,the resource consumption and pollution emissions per unit of Gross Domestic Product(GDP)remain high.This article quantitatively studies the current policies’effects to promote the advancement of dual control of energy consumption and develop future policies.Green production and consumption policies promote the development of dual control of energy consumption;therefore,this paper examines these policies through text mining and a quantitative evaluation system.The results suggest strong state demand for developing green production and consumption and the necessity for scientific evaluation;however,the state’s focus on the relevant policy tools is imbalanced.Constraint policy tools have the highest proportion of restricting pollutant emissions but lack comprehensiveness.Incentive and guidance policy tools have the problems of poor targets and low volume.Additionally,by constructing policy modeling consistency(PMC)index models for evaluating green production and consumption policies,six selected policies indicate solid performance,but some still have problems regarding policy timeframe,policy function,and green process.Based on the conclusions,this paper provides some targeted recommendations.

A class of not max-stable extreme value distributions

The sequences {Zi , 1≤i≤n}, n≥1 have multi-nomial distribution among i.i.d. random variables {X1, , i≥1}, {X2, , ,n i i i≥1}, …, {Xm , i≥1}. The extreme value distribution GZ(x) of this particular triangular array of i.i.d. random variables Z1, , Z2, , …, ,i n n r ?1 Zn is discussed in this paper. We found a new type of not max-stable extreme value distributions, i) GZ (x) = ,n ∏Φα Ai(x)×Φαr (x); i i=1 r ?1 r?1 ii) GZ (x) = ∏Ψα Ai(x)×Ψαr (x); iii) GZ (x) = ∏Λ Ai(λix)×Λ(x), r≥2, 0<α1≤α2≤…≤αr and λi∈(0,1] for i, 1≤i≤r?1 which occur if i i=1 i=1 Fj, …, Fm belong to the same MDA.

Pricing Power of China's Cocoon and Silk Products in International Market:An Empirical Analysis Based on International Market Power

Do China＇s silk products only have advantage in number but no pricing power in international market？ In this paper, we used the residual demand elasticity model to estimate the international market power of China＇s silk products. The empirical results revealed that China＇s raw material products such as natural silk products and semi-finished products such as satin products had certain market power in the main export markets, but the finished silk products such as woman＇s blouse or shirts and shawls had no market power in the target markets including USA and Germany. The scale economy from resource endowment and great market share are the base of the international market power of natural silk products. The advantage from industry agglomeration and great market share are the source of the international market power of satin products. Technical bottlenecks and inefficiency in brand building are the cause of unobvious international market power of China＇s finished silk products, and the competition from Italy and France has increased the difficulty to enhance market power. In order to consolidate and improve the international market power of China＇s silk products, it is suggested to stabilize the production scale and strengthen industrial base, to speed up the resources integration and optimize the industrial distribution, to strengthen science and technology innovation and adjust product structure, to speed up the brand construction and enhance the influence of brand, and to enlarge the scale of organization and achieve scale economies.

Analysis of FTA's Potential Economic Effects on China

As part of its further opening-up initiatives for the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020), China will accelerate the implementation of free trade agreement strategies and create free trade area networks with high standards-in which the development of mega-regional trade agreements(mega-RTAs) is a key component. This paper creates a large global general equilibrium numerical model system comprising 29 economies, and precisely models the free trade agreements' effects based on the progress of ongoing regional trade agreement negotiations. Then, a counterfactual simulation method is employed to quantitatively evaluate and compare the potential economic effects of China's existing large regional trade agreement negotiations. Simulated results lead to the following findings:(1) All these free trade agreements will increase China's welfare, output, employment and trade. Among them, the trade effect is the strongest, followed by output and employment effects, and welfare effect is relatively small.(2) Other members out of the free trade agreements all benefit. In comparison, smaller and more export-dependent economies benefit more, while China will dominate the negotiations given its comparative gains and contributions.

Impact of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Upgrading: Analysis Based on Panel Data of 30 Provinces in China

Environmental regulation and industrial upgrading are the key to achieve win-win results for both economy and the environment. After environmental regulation tools are divided into market incentive and command control types,based on the provincial-level data of 30 provinces( cities and regions) in China from 2004 to 2016,the impact of environmental regulation on industrial upgrading and its transmission paths are empirically tested through an intermediary effect model. Technological innovation,FDI and capital market development all meet intermediary conditions,and the market incentive type is more dependent on technological innovation,while the command control type is more dependent on FDI and capital market development.The impact of the two environmental regulation tools on industrial upgrading is further studied. The results show that there is an " inverted U-shaped" relationship between the command control type and industrial upgrading,while there is a " U-shaped" relationship between the market incentive type and industrial upgrading,and there are also certain regional differences in the impact of environmental regulation on industrial upgrading.

Effects of Commodity Trade Structure Variations on Labor' s Share of Income in China——An Empirical Study Based on Data of Production Industry Sectors

Proceeding from trade structure variations,this paper provides a new perspective on the study of the share of labor income in China.China's commodity trade structure has experienced a step change in recent years.According to theoretical analysis,trade exerts not only a direct effect on the share of labor income through international division of labor and specialization but also an indirect effect through factor intensity variations and technology progress bias.Empirical study discovered that export has a significant negative effect on the share of China's labor income while import has a positive effect.Import and export have different levels and directions of effect on sectors with different factor intensity.

Mechanism of Structural Transformation of China＇s Technology Export

Extending Long＇s （2001） two-sector model into a three-sector model, this paper constructs a new framework for analysing the evolution mechanism of the structure of technology exports. The authors also have applied an adjusted Hausman model to measure the structure of exported technology at China＇s provincial level regions. Upon this foundation, approaching the subject from its domestic and international impact factors, this paper empirically tests the motives driving the structural transformation of China＇s technology export. The conclusions are： （1） the structure of China＇s technology export has improved significantly in recent years, but not as highly as measured by Rodrik （2006） et al. （2） The dynamic mechanism of the structure of China＇s technology export differs from that of the other developing countries. At national and regional levels, the mounting physical capital stock is the fundamental driving force, but with obvious decreasing marginal utility. （3） Excessive unskilled labor in the capital production sector in the central and western regions, and excessively low export prices in the eastern regions have caused negative effects of the skilled labor in the western region and unskilled labor in the eastern region on local structure of technology export.

The Impact of SO_(2)Emission Trading Policy on Enterprise Performance

We used the latest database of Chinese industrial enterprises to make an empirical test of the relationship between the SO_(2)emissions trading pilot(ETP)policy implemented in 2007 and enterprise performance based on a difference-in-difference(DID)method since the ETP policy tends to be a“quasi-natural experiment.”The empirical results show that the ETP policy has a significant promotion effect on enterprise performance,which provides evidence supporting the“Porter hypothesis”in China.Heterogeneous regression results show that ETP policies play a vital role in promoting development in heavily polluting industries,state-owned enterprises,and central regions.The test results of the mechanism demonstrate that the ETP policy has two mechanisms to affect enterprise performance:“improving the total factor productivity of the enterprise”and“increasing the extra cost of the enterprise.”There are two policy implications of our research:first,government departments should strive to explore and implement relevant market-based environmental regulations and policies;second,government departments should vigorously support small and medium-sized enterprises and backward areas in the west while focusing on heavily polluting industries and making the best use of environmental regulations in pollution control,which are the key points for China to win the defense of the blue sky.

A Novel Smart Beta Optimization Based on Probabilistic Forecast

Rule-based portfolio construction strategies are rising as investmentdemand grows, and smart beta strategies are becoming a trend amonginstitutional investors. Smart beta strategies have high transparency, lowmanagement costs, and better long-term performance, but are at the risk ofsevere short-term declines due to a lack of Risk Control tools. Although thereare some methods to use historical volatility for Risk Control, it is still difficultto adapt to the rapid switch of market styles. How to strengthen the RiskControl management of the portfolio while maintaining the original advantagesof smart beta has become a new issue of concern in the industry. Thispaper demonstrates the scientific validity of using a probability prediction forposition optimization through an optimization theory and proposes a novelnatural gradient boosting (NGBoost)-based portfolio optimization method,which predicts stock prices and their probability distributions based on non-Bayesian methods and maximizes the Sharpe ratio expectation of positionoptimization. This paper validates the effectiveness and practicality of themodel by using the Chinese stock market, and the experimental results showthat the proposed method in this paper can reduce the volatility by 0.08 andincrease the expected portfolio cumulative return (reaching a maximum of67.1%) compared with the mainstream methods in the industry.

Elite capture,the“follow-up checks”policy,and the targeted poverty alleviation program:Evidence from rural western China

Decentralized methods for targeting poverty are widely adopted in developing countries to improve the performance of various poverty alleviation programs.A common challenge for implementing successful decentralized targeting is the existence of elite capture.China has recently implemented a nationwide decentralized poverty targeting program,the targeted poverty alleviation(TPA)policy,to achieve the national goal of eliminating absolute poverty by the end of 2020.As the largest decentralized poverty targeting program in the world,TPA's successful implementation was believed to be threatened by elite capture in some earlier reports.Since 2015,a targeting correction mechanism,called"follow-up checks"policy,has been introduced.With the"follow-up checks"policy,the elites and other ineligible households who receive benefits under TPA were removed from the program.This paper investigates the elite capture phenomenon in TPA using village census data from a poverty-stricken county in 2017-two years after implementing the"follow-up checks"policy.We find no evidence of elite capture in TPA.The elites are unlikely to become beneficiaries or receive more benefits than non-elites.Our results contradict earlier findings that reported elite capture in TPA.We argue that the reason is the accountability emphasized by the central government in the"follow-up checks"policy.Our findings imply that having proper accountability is critical for improving targeting performance by global antipoverty initiatives.

A closed-form pricing formula for European options in an illiquid asset market

This article addresses the problem of pricing European options when the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid.A liquidity discounting factor as a function of market-wide liquidity governed by a mean-reverting stochastic process and the sensitivity of the underlying price to market-wide liquidity is firstly introduced,so that the impact of liquidity on the underlying asset can be captured by the option pricing model.The characteristic function is analytically worked out using the Feynman–Kac theorem and a closed-form pricing formula for European options is successfully derived thereafter.Through numerical experiments,the accuracy of the newly derived formula is verified,and the significance of incorporating liquidity risk into option pricing is demonstrated.

How does an individual’s default behavior on an online peer-to-peer lending platform influence an observer’s default intention?

Previous studies indicate that individuals’default behaviors on online peer-to-peer(P2P)lending platforms greatly influence other borrowers’default intentions.However,the mechanism of this impact is not clear.Moreover,there is scarce research in regard to which factors influence the relationship between an individual’s default behavior and an observer’s default intention.These important questions are yet to be resolved;hence,we conducted two experiments using the scenario-based research method,focusing on Chinese online P2P lending platforms.Our results indicate that an individual’s default behavior can trigger an observer’s default intention as a result of the imperfect punitive measures as they currently exist on Chinese online P2P lending platforms.Both the observer’s moral disengagement level and pragmatic self-activation level serve as mediating variables.In situations where an observer knows an individual’s default behavior,the level of intimacy between the defaulter and observer positively affects the relationship between their default behavior and intention.The intimacy level also positively influences the relationship between the individual’s default behavior and the two mediator variables.Based on the findings,we provide management suggestions in the context of online P2P lending.Our study sets a foundation for future research to utilize other methods to extend the present research findings to other regions and domains.

Can the Super-deduction of R&D Expenses BoostR&DInvestment?

The super-deduction of research and development(R&D)expenses is at the core of the policy to stimulate enterprise innovation in China.This paper identifies whether firms are supported by the super-deduction policies for R&D expenses and uses the diferencein-diferences method to investigate the impact of the policies on R&D investment.The results show that changes in policy in 2013 significantly increased the R&D investment of firms engaging in key state-supported technologies.Policy changes in 2016 significantly increased the R&D investment of firms engaging in non-key-state-supported technologies.Enterprises not only invested all their tax incentives in R&D activities but also increased their investment in self-raised funds.The super-deduction policy had different impacts on different industries,firms with different boards,and firms with diferent ownership.The policy significantly affected the manufacturing and construction industries,the Small and Medium Enterprise Board,and non-state-owned enterprises.Through a mechanism analysis,we found that the policy significantly reduced the user cost of R&D and increased the net cash flow of enterprises,which could raise a firm's R&D investment.It is necessary to increase policy support,expand the scope of super-deductible expenses,and increase the super-deduction rate based on industry classification according to the sensitivity of different industries to the policy.

More general results on mixed extreme value distributions

The sequences {Zi,n, 1≤i≤n}, n≥1 are multi-nomial distribution among i.i.d, random variables {X1,i, i≥1}, {X2,i, i≥1 } {Xm,i, i≥1 }. The extreme value distribution Gz（x） of this particular triangular array of i.i,d, random variables Z1,n, Z2 n,...,Zn,n is discussed. A new type of not max-stable extreme value distributions which are Fréchet mixture, Gumbel mixture and Weibull mixture has been found if Fj,…… Fm belong to the same MDA. Whether mixtures of different types of extreme value distributions exist or not and the more general case are discussed in this paper. We found that Gz（x） does not exist as mixture forms of the different types of extreme value distributions after we investigated all cases.

Does communication increase investors’trading frequency?Evidence from a Chinese social trading platform

This study examines the impact of communication on investors’trading frequency based on a unique dataset drawn from a Chinese social trading platform.We find robust evidence that real-account portfolio owners on the platform trade more frequently under the influence of the comments posted by their leaders(the owners of portfolios they have followed).Moreover,portfolio owners are more sensitive to the quantity than to the tone of leaders’comments.Finally,both trading frequency and leaders’comments negatively impact portfolio owners’future performance.Our find-ings support the notion that social interaction promotes active investment strategies.

Optimal Tariff and Endogenous Drivers for Trade Liberalization

Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.

Does Environmental Regulation Increase Employment? Based on the SCM and RCM Methods

Whether environmental regulation can increase employment is still controversial in academic circles around the world.An important reason lies in the validity of an empirical method.Using China’s inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2015 and the synthetic control method(SCM),this paper focuses on a test that was carried out on the basis of a quasi-natural experiment of the 2007 Emission Trading Pilot(ETP)policy.The test results show that the ETP policy has increased the average employment level by 3.25 percentage points and passed a robustness test.The robustness test using the regression control method(RCM)shows that the average employment level has risen by 3.21 percentage points.This means that the ETP policy has significantly increased employment.The paper also puts forward three policy recommendations:optimizing the trading system for emissions rights,encouraging companies to carry out cleaner production and innovation,and incorporating environmental performance assessments.

Transcending Hukou Barriers Effectively Unleashes the Income-Raising Effect of Education:Based on an “Agricultural to Non-agricultural Hukou Conversion” Perspective

The relatively low rate of return to education has played an important role in explaining the urban-rural income disparity.However,rural residents have a high demand for education,and one significant reason is that education can help them break the restrictions of the household registration(hukou)system and obtain a higher income.Using data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS 2017),this study employs unconditional quantile regression to find that after reclassifying individuals who have experienced agricultural to non-agricultural hukou conversion back to the rural household registration category,the income-promotion effect on the rural population of completing high school and university education is significantly enhanced.The decomposition analysis using the recentered influence function(RIF)reveals that when considering the agricultural to non-agricultural hukou conversion group,the income disparity between urban and rural areas caused by education is noticeably alleviated.Furthermore,the endogenous switching regression model finds that individuals with agricultural hukou are generally less likely to work in formal institutions.Improving educational attainment helps increase the probability of their obtaining non-agricultural hukou and entering formal employment,resulting in higher income.Hence,policymakers should focus on improving the quality of rural education and reforming the household registration system to gradually eliminate the occupational segregation and income disparity caused by hukou barriers.