Application of Integration of Spatial Statistical Analysis with GIS to Regional Economic Analysis

This paper summarizes a few spatial statistical analysis methods for to measuring spatial autocorrelation and spatial association, discusses the criteria for the identification of spatial association by the use of global Moran Coefficient, Local Moran and Local Geary. Furthermore, a user-friendly statistical module, combining spatial statistical analysis methods with GIS visual techniques, is developed in Arcview using Avenue. An example is also given to show the usefulness of this module in identifying and quantifying the underlying spatial association patterns between economic units.

Assessing adaptability of the water resource system to social-ecological systems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region:Based on the DPSIR-TOPSIS framework

To optimize the overall layout of water resource allocation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the adaptabil‐ity of the water resource system to the regional social-ecological systems has to be enhanced.Based on the driver-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)framework,this study constructs an evaluation index system to analyze the adaptability mechanisms of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei’s water resource system according to the three major constituent social-ecological systems(i.e.,economic,social,and ecological systems).Moreover,it adopts the technique of order preference similarity to the ideal solution(TOPSIS)to comprehensively evaluate the adaptability of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei’s water resource system based on three constituent social-ecological systems(i.e.,economic,social,and ecological systems)and identifies the spatiotemporal differentiation char‐acteristics of the region.Our results showed that,①from 2000 to 2020,the adaptability of Beijing-Tianjin Hebei’s water resource system,as a whole,significantly improved.In terms of stages,from 2000 to 2007,the adaptability of the water resource social system was significantly higher than that of economic and ecological systems in the region.From 2008 to 2015,by accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures,improving the efficiency of economic water utilization,and strengthening the governance of the water ecosystem,the adaptability of water resource economic and ecological systems rapidly improved;how‐ever,that of the water resource ecological system was still the lowest.Additionally,the adaptability of the wa‐ter resource economic system exceeded that of the social system.From 2016 to 2020,the gap in adaptability of the water resource system to all three major constituent systems gradually narrowed.By 2020,the three sys‐tems entered a relatively balanced development stage,with the adaptability of the entire water resource system and the three major constituent systems maintaining a high level.②The economic system was significantly af‐fected by per capita GDP,per capita water resources,and the efficiency of economic water utilization.Addition‐ally,the social system was significantly affected by water consumption per unit of irrigation area.Meanwhile,the ecological system was significantly influenced by precipitation,water pollution discharge performance indi‐cators,and the structure optimization indicators of water supply.According to the evaluation results,we pro‐pose countermeasures and provide recommendations to optimize the overall layout of water resource alloca‐tion and promote the coordinated management of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Generalized weighted functional proportional mean combining forecasting model and its method of parameter estimation

A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is proposed and the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients by means of the algorithm of quadratic programming is given. This model has extensive representation. It is a new kind of aggregative method of group forecasting. By taking the suitable combining form of the forecasting models and seeking the optimal parameter, the optimal combining form can be obtained and the forecasting accuracy can be improved. The effectiveness of this model is demonstrated by an example.

Modeling the dynamic optimal advertising in stochastic condition

An effort to model the dynamic optimal advertising was made with the uncertainty of sales responses in consideration. The problem of dynamic advertising was depicted as a Markov decision process with two state variables. When a firm launches an advertising campaign, it may predict the probability that the campaign will obtain the sales réponse. This probability was chosen as one state variable. Cumulative sales volume was chosen as another state variable which varies randomly with advertising. The only decision variable was advertising expenditure. With these variables, a multi-stage Markov decision process model was formulat ed. On the basis of some propositions the model was analyzed. Some analytical results about the optimal strategy have been derived, and their practical implications have been explained.

Status and Trends in International Trade of Major Wood Products in China

Based on the current conditions, a forecast of trends in imports and exports of wood products and their demand and supply is presented in this paper for the years of 2005 and 2015. It is expected that imports will continue to exceed exports but that the trade deficit in wood products will decline. The form of trade will be changed from a condition of unilateral imports to one of exerting mutual advantage through imports and exports. The structure of trade in forest products will alter with changes in the forest resource base and with new developments in the forest industry.

Integrated Evaluation and Its Application on Decision-Making of Comprehensive Transportation Projects

The comprehensive transportation project involves with many different transportation methods, such as railway, highway, waterway, airline, and pipeline, which have their special characteristics. To evaluate the transporta- tion project with different transportation methods under the same system, the integrated evaluation method should be built up on the basis of a common index system. This paper suggests a feasible integrated evaluation method including index system establishing, indices transacting, the index weight distributing, and weighted value integrating.

Research on Mineral Resource Prediction by GA-ANN

Fault recognition and coal seam thickness forecast are important problems in mineral resource prediction. Knowledge of multiple disciplines, which include mining engineering, mine geology, seismic prospecting etc, was used synthetically. Artificial neural network was combined with genetic algorithm to found integrated AI method of genetic algorithm artificial neural network(GA ANN). Fault recognition and coal seam thickness forecast were carried to completion by case studies. And the research results are satisfactory.

The feature of stratification in the blowing sand cloud

The profiles of particle concentration in saltation layer versus height are calculated, by the motion equations for a saltating grain in conjunction with different probability distribution functions of the vertical liftoff velocities of grains and an empirical expression of wind velocity. The numerical results demonstrated that the stratification phenomenon exists in the particle concentration profiles and showed increasing, saturating and decreasing features, respectively, when the probability distribution functions of liftoff velocities adopted in the calculation are similar to a normal distribution or a two-parameter gamma distribution. When the distribution function of liftoff velocities is taken as an exponential form, the profile of particle concentration decreases monotonically. A numerical simulation of mass flux of grains, performed by the model suggested in this paper, is in reasonable accordance with the measured data.

The Finite Time Ruin Probability with the Same Heavy-tailed Insurance and Financial Risks

This note complements a recent study in ruin theory with risky investment byestablishing the same asymptotic estimate for the finite time ruin probability under a weakerrestriction on the financial risks. In particular, our result applies to a critical case that theinsurance and financial risks have Pareto-type tails with the same regular index.

ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING AGGREGATION METHOD FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION

Portfolio management is a typical decision making problem under incomplete,sometimes unknown, information. This paper considers the portfolio selection problemsunder a general setting of uncertain states without probability. The investor's preferenceis based on his optimum degree about the nature, and his attitude can be described by anOrdered Weighted Averaging Aggregation function. We construct the OWA portfolio selection model, which is a nonlinear programming problem. The problem can be equivalentlytransformed into a mixed integer linear programming. A numerical example is given andthe solutions imply that the investor's strategies depend not only on his optimum degreebut also on his preference weight vector. The general game-theoretical portfolio selectionmethod, max-min method and competitive ratio method are all the special settings of thismodel.

AN ADAPTIVE TRUST REGION METHOD FOR EQUALITY CONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION

In this paper, a trust region method for equality constrained optimizationbased on nondifferentiable exact penalty is proposed. In this algorithm, the trail step ischaracterized by computation of its normal component being separated from computation of itstangential component, i.e., only the tangential component of the trail step is constrained by trustradius while the normal component and trail step itself have no constraints. The other maincharacteristic of the algorithm is the decision of trust region radius. Here, the decision of trustregion radius uses the information of the gradient of objective function and reduced Hessian.However, Maratos effect will occur when we use the nondifferentiable exact penalty function as themerit function. In order to obtain the superlinear convergence of the algorithm, we use the twiceorder correction technique. Because of the speciality of the adaptive trust region method, we usetwice order correction when p = 0 (the definition is as in Section 2) and this is different from thetraditional trust region methods for equality constrained optimization. So the computation of thealgorithm in this paper is reduced. What is more, we can prove that the algorithm is globally andsuperlinearly convergent.

Analysis for Influence of Market Information on Firms＇ Optimal Strategies in Multidimensional Bertrand Game

The Bertrand model of two firms' static multidimensional game with incomplete information for two kinds of product with certain substitution is discussed in the paper,and analyzes influences of the firms' forecasting results of total market demands on their optimal strategies according to marxet information. The conclusions are that the more a firm masters market information, the greater differences of forecasted values and expected values of market demands for products have influence upon equilibrium strategies; conversely, the less they have influence upon equilibrium strategies.

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Technical Barriers on Information Product Exports Based on the Fuzzy AHP

To the actual situation of TBT impacting information product and according to the concept of the triangular fuzzy number, this paper forms the fuzzy matrix of factors of impacting export of information product, then uses the fuzzy AHP to analyze and rate factors. We put forward suggestions on how to keep away and surpass the technical barriers to trade in the information product enterprises.

Formate and acetate as recorded in a mid-latitude glacier in west China

Formate and acetate are ubiquitous in the troposphere. Their occurrence is closely related to processes in the biosphere and contributes to an understanding of carbon biogeochemical cycles. A 43-year record of formate and acetate in an ice core from Glacier 1 (43?6′N, 86?9′E) at Urumqi river head, Tianshan, west China was investigated. Fluctuating between 22.7 ng·g-1 and 2830.7 ng·g-1, acetate concentration averages 373.2 ?376.1 ng·g-1 (mean ?1s, N = 541) and is the highest anion in the record. Next to acetate, the concentration for formate varies between 2.1 ng·g-1 and 795.5 ng·g-1 and averages 61.1 ?89.0 ng·g-1 (N = 541). The formate to acetate ratio averages 0.22 ?0.25 (N = 541), indicating that the chief source is from fossil fuel combustion, coal burning in particular. The two species co-varied in the past four decades and exhibited periods of high concentration from the early 1960s to the middle of 1970s and from the early 1980s to the middle of 1990s, separated by a time of the lower concentration between 1975—1980. These variations may reflect the local/regional anthropogenic pollution to the atmosphere as well as the economic development of northwestern China.

Predictor-Corrector Smoothing Methods for Monotone LCP

In this paper, we analyze the global and local convergence properties of two predictor-corrector smoothing methods, which are based on the framework of the method in [1], for monotone linear complementarity problems (LCPs). The difference between the algorithm in [1] and our algorithms is that the neighborhood of smoothing central path in our paper is different to that in [1]. In addition, the difference between Algorithm 2.1 and the algorithm in [1] exists in the calculation of the predictor step. Comparing with the results in [1], the global and local convergence of the two methods can be obtained under very mild conditions. The global convergence of the two methods do not need the boundness of the inverse of the Jacobian. The superlinear convergence of Algorithm 2.1′ is obtained under the assumption of nonsingularity of generalized Jacobian of φ(x, y) at the limit point and Algorithm 2.1 obtains superlinear convergence under the assumption of strict complementarity at the solution. The effciency of the two methods is tested by numerical experiments.

A Game Theory Approach of Deposit Insurance

This paper presents a dynamic game theory approach for deposit insurance. We formulate a deposit insurance problem as an incomplete information game theory model, which deduces the expression of Capital Charge Ratio for national central bank. The main contribution of the paper however is that we then extrapolate the declared value of the bank in best its policy. Finally a numerical example is used to illustrate the approach proposed in this paper.

The Stock Market＇s Reaction to Firm＇s Growth and Stability in China

This paper constructed portfolios according to the growth rates and their stability of firm's total stockholders' equity per share and net income per share, using all the firms' information of Shanghai A-share market. We found that the market exhibits some overreaction to the growth raie of firm's net income per share, and isn't sensitive to the stability of firm's growth rates.

Contribution Degree of Service Trade to Beijing Economy

This paper study up the contribution degree and development policies of service trade to Beijing economy by macroeconomic modeling method. The result shows contribution degree of service trade to Beijing economy is 2.419.

Dynamic Structural Analysis and Countermeasures of ＂Three Issues＂ About Farmers Agriculture and Rural Areas

"Three Issues" about farmers, agriculture and rural areas are complex. The interdependence among co-related subsystems in the large-scale system is relatively complex.On the other hand, it is interrelated to economic development, national policy and industry structure. It is difficult to get the best solution to the problem about farmers, agriculture and rural areas, because it is the complex system with controllable and uncontrollable elements. We analyze the structure of the large-scale system by dynamics, and we try to find the most important factors among the complex interaction and give countermeasures about the problem.