Retrieval of Thin-Ice Thickness(TIT)using thermodynamic modeling is sensitive to the parameterization of the independent variables(coded in the model)and the uncertainty of the measured input variables.This article ex...Retrieval of Thin-Ice Thickness(TIT)using thermodynamic modeling is sensitive to the parameterization of the independent variables(coded in the model)and the uncertainty of the measured input variables.This article examines the deviation of the classical model’s TIT output when using different parameterization schemes and the sensitivity of the output to the ice thickness.Moreover,it estimates the uncertainty of the output in response to the uncertainties of the input variables.The parameterized independent variables include atmospheric longwave emissivity,air density,specific heat of air,latent heat of ice,conductivity of ice,snow depth,and snow conductivity.Measured input parameters include air temperature,ice surface temperature,and wind speed.Among the independent variables,the results show that the highest deviation is caused by adjusting the parameterization of snow conductivity and depth,followed ice conductivity.The sensitivity of the output TIT to ice thickness is highest when using parameterization of ice conductivity,atmospheric emissivity,and snow conductivity and depth.The retrieved TIT obtained using each parameterization scheme is validated using in situ measurements and satellite-retrieved data.From in situ measurements,the uncertainties of the measured air temperature and surface temperature are found to be high.The resulting uncertainties of TIT are evaluated using perturbations of the input data selected based on the probability distribution of the measurement error.The results show that the overall uncertainty of TIT to air temperature,surface temperature,and wind speed uncertainty is around 0.09 m,0.049 m,and−0.005 m,respectively.展开更多
Seventeen topsoil samples （9 urban, 4 suburban, 3 rural and 1 background） were collected in/around Harbin, a typical city in northeast of China, to measure concentration levels of organocholrine pesticides （OCPs） ...Seventeen topsoil samples （9 urban, 4 suburban, 3 rural and 1 background） were collected in/around Harbin, a typical city in northeast of China, to measure concentration levels of organocholrine pesticides （OCPs） in topsoil of Northeastern China in 2006. Hexachlorohexanes （HCH）, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane （DDT）, and hexachlorobenzene （HCB） were detected in soil samples with mean concentrations （in pg/g dry weight （dw）） of 7120, 5425, and 1039, respectively. The mean concentrations for other OCPs were very low, 4.8 pg/g dw for chlordane and 3.3 pg/g dw for endosulfan. Source identification analysis reveals that all OCPs found in soil samples were due to historical use of these chemicals or from other source regions through long- and short-range atmospheric transport. DDT was mainly used in the rural sites, whereas the sources of HCB, chlordane and endosulfan were mainly in the urban area. HCH was found almost equally in both urban and rural area. Soil concentrations of all detected OCPs, except HCHs, in and around Harbin were much lower than those in the southeast of China, which is expected since the use of these OCPs in the former was much lower than that in the latter, however higher HCH concentrations in and around Harbin than those found in most places of the Southeast China is not expected. It is suggested that high HCH concentration in soil of Northeast China was most likely due to long-range atmospheric transport （LRAT） from Southeast China and the cold condensation process.展开更多
Time-series of weekly total carbon （TC） concentrations of fine aerosol particles （PM2.5） in Beijing and Toronto were compared to investigate their respective levels and temporal patterns over two years from August...Time-series of weekly total carbon （TC） concentrations of fine aerosol particles （PM2.5） in Beijing and Toronto were compared to investigate their respective levels and temporal patterns over two years from August 2001 through July 2003. In addition to this comparison, differences in the factors contributing to the observed concentrations and their temporal variations are discussed. Based upon past knowledge about the two megacities with highly contrasting air pollutant levels, it is not surprising that the average TC concentration in Belling （31.5 μg C m^-3） was greater than that in Toronto by a factor of 8.3. Despite their large concentration differences, in both cities TC comprised a similarly large component of PM2.5. TC concentrations exhibited very different seasonal patterns between the two cities. In Beijing, TC experienced higher levels and greater weekly fluctuations in winter whereas in Toronto this behavior was seen in summer. As a result, the greatest gap in TC concentrations between Beijing and Toronto （by a factor of 12.7） occurred in winter, while the smallest gap （a factor of 4.6） was in summer. In Beijing, seasonal variations in the emissions probably played a greater role than meteorology in influencing the TC seasonality, while in Toronto during the warm months more than 80% of the hourly winds were recorded from the south, along with many potential anthropogenic sources for the days with high TC concentrations. This comparison of the differences provides insight into the major factors affecting carbonaceous aerosol in each city.展开更多
Using the observed data from 184 stations over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau （YGP） from 1961 to 2005, the long-term trends in sunshine duration, cloud amount, dry visibility （Vd）, dry extinction, and water vapor over...Using the observed data from 184 stations over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau （YGP） from 1961 to 2005, the long-term trends in sunshine duration, cloud amount, dry visibility （Vd）, dry extinction, and water vapor over the YGP are analyzed. The results show that 85% of the stations recorded shortening annual sunshine duration, with the decrease rates between -12.2 and -173.7 h/10yr. Results of Mann-Kendall tests indicate that, among the stations with decreasing sunshine duration, 63.7% of them experienced an abrupt change that started in the 1970s and peaked in the 1980s. This decreasing trend has reversed in the early years of the 21st century. The cloud cover and water vapor content in the mid and lower levels over the YGP had no obvious changes during the study period. The annual averages of Vd declined from 34 km in the 1960s to 27 km at present. The annual mean dry extinction coefficient trended upward, from 0.176 to 0.190, on the YGP from 1980 to 2005. Analyses of cloud cover, water vapor, atmospheric visibility, and dry extinction coefficient revealed that emitted tropospheric aerosols （including air pollutants） resulting from increased energy consumption over the YGP could be a major Factor influencing the reductions of sunshine duration and atmospheric visibility.展开更多
The effects of calcination and modification on the morphology （shapes and textures） and crystal structure of anhydrite powders were studied. The results show that, calcination at 100℃ causes anhydrite to disintegra...The effects of calcination and modification on the morphology （shapes and textures） and crystal structure of anhydrite powders were studied. The results show that, calcination at 100℃ causes anhydrite to disintegrate into smaller crystals, accompanied by a slight in- crease in d-spacing. Without calcination and modification, the solidification time and curing time of anhydrite are 15 and 77 h, respectively. After the treatment, however, the solidification time and curing time are shortened significantly to 9.5 and 14 rain, respectively. The com- pressive and flexural strengths of hydration products made from the treated anhydrite reach 10.2 and 2.0 MPa, respectively. The much shorter solidification and curing time make it possible to use anhydrite as a building and construction material.展开更多
Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and...Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period.Methods:We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Suc-cession,in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework.We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing,according to a tonne-year approach.Simulations were con-ducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one.These scenarios included:i)a business-as-usual scenario(BaU),representing the current management strategy,ii)increased harvesting by 6.3%to 13.9%,iii)increased conservation(i.e.reduced harvesting by 11.1%to 49.8%),iiii)and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape(i.e.without any management activity).Results:Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate(enhance net sequestration)and boreal forest sector(enhance net emissions)in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards,regardless of the future climate.Carbon storage in wood products and the substi-tution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems.Moreover,climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks.Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes.Conclusions:Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies.The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems.This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands,with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.展开更多
The paper forms the second part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Daily streamflow simulation models developed in the compani...The paper forms the second part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Daily streamflow simulation models developed in the companion paper (Part I) were used to project changes in frequency of future daily streamflow events. To achieve this goal, future climate information (including rainfall) at a local scale is needed. A regression-based downscaling method was employed to downscale eight global climate model (GCM) simulations (scenarios A2 and B1) to selected weather stations for various meteorological variables (except rainfall). Future daily rainfall quantities were projected using daily rainfall simulation models with downscaled future climate information. Following these projections, future daily streamflow volumes can be projected by applying daily streamflow simulation models. The frequency of future daily high-streamflow events in the warm season (May–November) was projected to increase by about 45%-55% late this century from the current condition, on average of eight-GCM A2 projections and four selected river basins. The corresponding increases for future daily low-streamflow events and future daily mean streamflow volume could be about 25%-90% and 10%-20%, respectively. In addition, the return values of annual one-day maximum streamflow volume for various return periods were projected to increase by 20%-40%, 20%-50%, and 30%-80%, respectively for the periods 2001-50, 2026-75, and 2051-2100. Inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties of future streamflow projections were quantitatively assessed. On average, the projected percentage increases in frequency of future daily high-streamflow events are about 1.4-2.2 times greater than inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties.展开更多
The paper forms the first part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, both conceptual and statistical streamflow si...The paper forms the first part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, both conceptual and statistical streamflow simulation modeling theories were collectively applied to simulate daily streamflow volumes. Based on conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling principle, the predictors were selected to take into account several physical factors that affect streamflow, such as (1) current and previous quantities of rainfall over the watershed, (2) an index of pre-storm moisture conditions, (3) an index of pre-storm evapotranspiration capacities, and (4) a seasonal factor representing seasonal variation of streamflow volume. These rainfall-runoff conceptual factors were applied to an autocorrelation correction regression procedure to develop a daily streamflow simulation model for each of the four selected river basins. The streamflow simulation models were validated using a leave-one-year-out cross-validation scheme. The simulation models identified that the explanatory predictors are consistent with the physical processes typically associated with high-streamflow events. Daily streamflow simulation models show that there are significant correlations between daily streamflow observations and model validations, with model R2s of 0.68-0.71, 0.61-0.62, 0.71-0.74, and 0.95 for Grand, Humber, Upper Thames, and Rideau River Basins, respectively. The major reason for the model performance varying across the basins might be that rainfall-runoff response time and physical characteristics differ significantly among the selected river basins. The results suggest that streamflow simulation models can be used to assess possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes at a local scale, which is major objective of a companion paper (Part II).展开更多
As a genre that expressed women＇s dark protests, fantasies and the fear, female Gothic was not theorized until the late 1960s, and before its theorization, this convention was adopted by many women writers in their w...As a genre that expressed women＇s dark protests, fantasies and the fear, female Gothic was not theorized until the late 1960s, and before its theorization, this convention was adopted by many women writers in their works. Charlotte Perkins Gilman＇s The yellow wallpaper is one of the many examples. As the epitome of female gothic, The yellow wallpaper utilized the female gothic conventions--the grotesque symbol of yellow wallpaper, the hysteric narrative format and the archetype image of madwoman, to express women＇s status of her time--their repression, rebellion and quest for the ＂true self＂.展开更多
This article discusses some views on the relationship between carrying out and applying standards and precision design and the teaching of a course on interchangeability and measurement techniques. It points out that ...This article discusses some views on the relationship between carrying out and applying standards and precision design and the teaching of a course on interchangeability and measurement techniques. It points out that while emphasizing precision design, we should not underrate the significance of interchangeability and standardization. Although there are presently many teaching models available for such courses, each course should be designed separately to preserve its systematic character and integrality. As well, the development of students' abilities in precision design and the application of standards should be strengthened in experimental lessons within each course.展开更多
Project Trackdown is an investigative environmental program aimed at tracking sources of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination in Great Lakes tributaries. The program uses a multimedia weight of evidence approa...Project Trackdown is an investigative environmental program aimed at tracking sources of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination in Great Lakes tributaries. The program uses a multimedia weight of evidence approach for identifying sources of PCBs to the environment. PCB concentrations in environmental media (sediment, water, suspended sediment and soil), passive samplers and/or exposed biota (mussels, young-of-the-year fish and benthic invertebrates) are used in combination to evaluate bioavailability and identify local anomalies within a tributary. These lines of evidence can be assessed with simple chemometric techniques and fingerprinting of PCB congener profiles, and, combined with anecdotal information such as land use history and tributary alterations, may be used to identify ongoing and locally controllable sources of PCBs to the Great Lakes. The program was successful at developing environmental triggers to differentiate potential source areas from background PCB conditions in urban areas, allowing efforts to focus on identifying active ongoing sources of PCB contamination. Project Trackdown has been carried out in three tributaries to Lake Ontario (Cataraqui River, Etobicoke Creek and Twelve Mile Creek) and two tributaries that flow into the Detroit River (Turkey Creek and Little River). Local ongoing PCB sources have been identified in four projects, leading to abatement or remediation measures. As a collaborative initiative between the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Environment Canada, Project Trackdown has successfully identified several PCB sources leading to substantial cleanup efforts aimed ultimately at reducing PCB contamination to the Great Lakes.展开更多
In Canada,the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus(WNV)is difficult to predict and,beyond climatic factors,appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States.This hyp...In Canada,the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus(WNV)is difficult to predict and,beyond climatic factors,appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States.This hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed model.The main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada,that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission.A Cellular Automata(CA)approach for multiple hosts(birds and humans)is used for a test region in eastern Ontario,Canada.The tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity,host migration,and vector feeding preferences.We developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 rectangular cells.We used 2010–2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010–2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public Health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal variation.We considered heterogeneous bird densities(high and low suitability areas)and homogeneous mosquito and human densities.In high suitability areas for birds,we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected birds.We compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected mosquitoes.Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB software.The results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics,supporting the validity of our model assumptions and calibration.Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5%increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito(c^(B,M)and mosquito natural mortality rate(d^(M)),had a very limited effect on the total number of cases(newly infected birds and humans),prevalence peak,or date of occurrence.We demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.展开更多
文摘Retrieval of Thin-Ice Thickness(TIT)using thermodynamic modeling is sensitive to the parameterization of the independent variables(coded in the model)and the uncertainty of the measured input variables.This article examines the deviation of the classical model’s TIT output when using different parameterization schemes and the sensitivity of the output to the ice thickness.Moreover,it estimates the uncertainty of the output in response to the uncertainties of the input variables.The parameterized independent variables include atmospheric longwave emissivity,air density,specific heat of air,latent heat of ice,conductivity of ice,snow depth,and snow conductivity.Measured input parameters include air temperature,ice surface temperature,and wind speed.Among the independent variables,the results show that the highest deviation is caused by adjusting the parameterization of snow conductivity and depth,followed ice conductivity.The sensitivity of the output TIT to ice thickness is highest when using parameterization of ice conductivity,atmospheric emissivity,and snow conductivity and depth.The retrieved TIT obtained using each parameterization scheme is validated using in situ measurements and satellite-retrieved data.From in situ measurements,the uncertainties of the measured air temperature and surface temperature are found to be high.The resulting uncertainties of TIT are evaluated using perturbations of the input data selected based on the probability distribution of the measurement error.The results show that the overall uncertainty of TIT to air temperature,surface temperature,and wind speed uncertainty is around 0.09 m,0.049 m,and−0.005 m,respectively.
基金supported by the Heilongjiang Province Postdoctoral Research Funding (No AUGA41001074)the State Key Lab of Urban Water Resource and Envi-ronment, Harbin Institute of Technology (No 2008DX01)
文摘Seventeen topsoil samples （9 urban, 4 suburban, 3 rural and 1 background） were collected in/around Harbin, a typical city in northeast of China, to measure concentration levels of organocholrine pesticides （OCPs） in topsoil of Northeastern China in 2006. Hexachlorohexanes （HCH）, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane （DDT）, and hexachlorobenzene （HCB） were detected in soil samples with mean concentrations （in pg/g dry weight （dw）） of 7120, 5425, and 1039, respectively. The mean concentrations for other OCPs were very low, 4.8 pg/g dw for chlordane and 3.3 pg/g dw for endosulfan. Source identification analysis reveals that all OCPs found in soil samples were due to historical use of these chemicals or from other source regions through long- and short-range atmospheric transport. DDT was mainly used in the rural sites, whereas the sources of HCB, chlordane and endosulfan were mainly in the urban area. HCH was found almost equally in both urban and rural area. Soil concentrations of all detected OCPs, except HCHs, in and around Harbin were much lower than those in the southeast of China, which is expected since the use of these OCPs in the former was much lower than that in the latter, however higher HCH concentrations in and around Harbin than those found in most places of the Southeast China is not expected. It is suggested that high HCH concentration in soil of Northeast China was most likely due to long-range atmospheric transport （LRAT） from Southeast China and the cold condensation process.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)projects(Grant Nos.20322203 and 40675079)the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of NSFC(Grant No.20625722)
文摘Time-series of weekly total carbon （TC） concentrations of fine aerosol particles （PM2.5） in Beijing and Toronto were compared to investigate their respective levels and temporal patterns over two years from August 2001 through July 2003. In addition to this comparison, differences in the factors contributing to the observed concentrations and their temporal variations are discussed. Based upon past knowledge about the two megacities with highly contrasting air pollutant levels, it is not surprising that the average TC concentration in Belling （31.5 μg C m^-3） was greater than that in Toronto by a factor of 8.3. Despite their large concentration differences, in both cities TC comprised a similarly large component of PM2.5. TC concentrations exhibited very different seasonal patterns between the two cities. In Beijing, TC experienced higher levels and greater weekly fluctuations in winter whereas in Toronto this behavior was seen in summer. As a result, the greatest gap in TC concentrations between Beijing and Toronto （by a factor of 12.7） occurred in winter, while the smallest gap （a factor of 4.6） was in summer. In Beijing, seasonal variations in the emissions probably played a greater role than meteorology in influencing the TC seasonality, while in Toronto during the warm months more than 80% of the hourly winds were recorded from the south, along with many potential anthropogenic sources for the days with high TC concentrations. This comparison of the differences provides insight into the major factors affecting carbonaceous aerosol in each city.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. 40965009)the Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Bureau Key Laboratory Programme (No. KF200906)
文摘Using the observed data from 184 stations over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau （YGP） from 1961 to 2005, the long-term trends in sunshine duration, cloud amount, dry visibility （Vd）, dry extinction, and water vapor over the YGP are analyzed. The results show that 85% of the stations recorded shortening annual sunshine duration, with the decrease rates between -12.2 and -173.7 h/10yr. Results of Mann-Kendall tests indicate that, among the stations with decreasing sunshine duration, 63.7% of them experienced an abrupt change that started in the 1970s and peaked in the 1980s. This decreasing trend has reversed in the early years of the 21st century. The cloud cover and water vapor content in the mid and lower levels over the YGP had no obvious changes during the study period. The annual averages of Vd declined from 34 km in the 1960s to 27 km at present. The annual mean dry extinction coefficient trended upward, from 0.176 to 0.190, on the YGP from 1980 to 2005. Analyses of cloud cover, water vapor, atmospheric visibility, and dry extinction coefficient revealed that emitted tropospheric aerosols （including air pollutants） resulting from increased energy consumption over the YGP could be a major Factor influencing the reductions of sunshine duration and atmospheric visibility.
文摘The effects of calcination and modification on the morphology （shapes and textures） and crystal structure of anhydrite powders were studied. The results show that, calcination at 100℃ causes anhydrite to disintegrate into smaller crystals, accompanied by a slight in- crease in d-spacing. Without calcination and modification, the solidification time and curing time of anhydrite are 15 and 77 h, respectively. After the treatment, however, the solidification time and curing time are shortened significantly to 9.5 and 14 rain, respectively. The com- pressive and flexural strengths of hydration products made from the treated anhydrite reach 10.2 and 2.0 MPa, respectively. The much shorter solidification and curing time make it possible to use anhydrite as a building and construction material.
基金This study was funded by the Quebec Ministry of Forests,Wildlife,and Parks(contrats de service de recherche forestier 142332156-2018-A and 142332174-E:PI:E.Thiffault)by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council through a Discovery Grant to E.Thiffault(grant number RGPIN-2018-05755).
文摘Background:Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement,and thus re-quires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies.The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period.Methods:We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Suc-cession,in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework.We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing,according to a tonne-year approach.Simulations were con-ducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one.These scenarios included:i)a business-as-usual scenario(BaU),representing the current management strategy,ii)increased harvesting by 6.3%to 13.9%,iii)increased conservation(i.e.reduced harvesting by 11.1%to 49.8%),iiii)and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape(i.e.without any management activity).Results:Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate(enhance net sequestration)and boreal forest sector(enhance net emissions)in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards,regardless of the future climate.Carbon storage in wood products and the substi-tution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems.Moreover,climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks.Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes.Conclusions:Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies.The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems.This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands,with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.
文摘The paper forms the second part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Daily streamflow simulation models developed in the companion paper (Part I) were used to project changes in frequency of future daily streamflow events. To achieve this goal, future climate information (including rainfall) at a local scale is needed. A regression-based downscaling method was employed to downscale eight global climate model (GCM) simulations (scenarios A2 and B1) to selected weather stations for various meteorological variables (except rainfall). Future daily rainfall quantities were projected using daily rainfall simulation models with downscaled future climate information. Following these projections, future daily streamflow volumes can be projected by applying daily streamflow simulation models. The frequency of future daily high-streamflow events in the warm season (May–November) was projected to increase by about 45%-55% late this century from the current condition, on average of eight-GCM A2 projections and four selected river basins. The corresponding increases for future daily low-streamflow events and future daily mean streamflow volume could be about 25%-90% and 10%-20%, respectively. In addition, the return values of annual one-day maximum streamflow volume for various return periods were projected to increase by 20%-40%, 20%-50%, and 30%-80%, respectively for the periods 2001-50, 2026-75, and 2051-2100. Inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties of future streamflow projections were quantitatively assessed. On average, the projected percentage increases in frequency of future daily high-streamflow events are about 1.4-2.2 times greater than inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties.
文摘The paper forms the first part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, both conceptual and statistical streamflow simulation modeling theories were collectively applied to simulate daily streamflow volumes. Based on conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling principle, the predictors were selected to take into account several physical factors that affect streamflow, such as (1) current and previous quantities of rainfall over the watershed, (2) an index of pre-storm moisture conditions, (3) an index of pre-storm evapotranspiration capacities, and (4) a seasonal factor representing seasonal variation of streamflow volume. These rainfall-runoff conceptual factors were applied to an autocorrelation correction regression procedure to develop a daily streamflow simulation model for each of the four selected river basins. The streamflow simulation models were validated using a leave-one-year-out cross-validation scheme. The simulation models identified that the explanatory predictors are consistent with the physical processes typically associated with high-streamflow events. Daily streamflow simulation models show that there are significant correlations between daily streamflow observations and model validations, with model R2s of 0.68-0.71, 0.61-0.62, 0.71-0.74, and 0.95 for Grand, Humber, Upper Thames, and Rideau River Basins, respectively. The major reason for the model performance varying across the basins might be that rainfall-runoff response time and physical characteristics differ significantly among the selected river basins. The results suggest that streamflow simulation models can be used to assess possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes at a local scale, which is major objective of a companion paper (Part II).
文摘As a genre that expressed women＇s dark protests, fantasies and the fear, female Gothic was not theorized until the late 1960s, and before its theorization, this convention was adopted by many women writers in their works. Charlotte Perkins Gilman＇s The yellow wallpaper is one of the many examples. As the epitome of female gothic, The yellow wallpaper utilized the female gothic conventions--the grotesque symbol of yellow wallpaper, the hysteric narrative format and the archetype image of madwoman, to express women＇s status of her time--their repression, rebellion and quest for the ＂true self＂.
文摘This article discusses some views on the relationship between carrying out and applying standards and precision design and the teaching of a course on interchangeability and measurement techniques. It points out that while emphasizing precision design, we should not underrate the significance of interchangeability and standardization. Although there are presently many teaching models available for such courses, each course should be designed separately to preserve its systematic character and integrality. As well, the development of students' abilities in precision design and the application of standards should be strengthened in experimental lessons within each course.
文摘Project Trackdown is an investigative environmental program aimed at tracking sources of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination in Great Lakes tributaries. The program uses a multimedia weight of evidence approach for identifying sources of PCBs to the environment. PCB concentrations in environmental media (sediment, water, suspended sediment and soil), passive samplers and/or exposed biota (mussels, young-of-the-year fish and benthic invertebrates) are used in combination to evaluate bioavailability and identify local anomalies within a tributary. These lines of evidence can be assessed with simple chemometric techniques and fingerprinting of PCB congener profiles, and, combined with anecdotal information such as land use history and tributary alterations, may be used to identify ongoing and locally controllable sources of PCBs to the Great Lakes. The program was successful at developing environmental triggers to differentiate potential source areas from background PCB conditions in urban areas, allowing efforts to focus on identifying active ongoing sources of PCB contamination. Project Trackdown has been carried out in three tributaries to Lake Ontario (Cataraqui River, Etobicoke Creek and Twelve Mile Creek) and two tributaries that flow into the Detroit River (Turkey Creek and Little River). Local ongoing PCB sources have been identified in four projects, leading to abatement or remediation measures. As a collaborative initiative between the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Environment Canada, Project Trackdown has successfully identified several PCB sources leading to substantial cleanup efforts aimed ultimately at reducing PCB contamination to the Great Lakes.
文摘In Canada,the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus(WNV)is difficult to predict and,beyond climatic factors,appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States.This hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed model.The main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada,that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission.A Cellular Automata(CA)approach for multiple hosts(birds and humans)is used for a test region in eastern Ontario,Canada.The tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity,host migration,and vector feeding preferences.We developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 rectangular cells.We used 2010–2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010–2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public Health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal variation.We considered heterogeneous bird densities(high and low suitability areas)and homogeneous mosquito and human densities.In high suitability areas for birds,we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected birds.We compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected mosquitoes.Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB software.The results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics,supporting the validity of our model assumptions and calibration.Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5%increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito(c^(B,M)and mosquito natural mortality rate(d^(M)),had a very limited effect on the total number of cases(newly infected birds and humans),prevalence peak,or date of occurrence.We demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.
