Comparison of climate projections between driving CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and downscaling simulation of RegCM4.4 over China

A 151-year (1950e2100) dynamical downscaling simulation over East Asia is conducted by using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4.4 at 25 km grid spacing, which is nested within CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Climate changes over China during the 21st century under the RCP4.5 scenario from CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and RegCM4.4 are analyzed. Both simulations project that continuous warming with large regional variations will occur in the future. The two simulations obtain similar inter-annual fluctuations of regional average warming, with RegCM4.4 obtaining somewhat smaller values than CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Projected precipitation changes are even more regionally variable than temperature changes. In western China, both models project increased precipitation, while the projections from two models show different regional details in eastern China. In both simulations, projected annual mean precipitation on a national scale does not change significantly due to the contrast changes between dry and wet seasons. To analyze uncertainties of the projected climate change in China, the simulation of RegCM4.4 is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 at the same horizontal resolution. The overall consistency in precipitation change between RegCM3 and RegCM4.4 is projected across western China, while inconsistency is identified in most of eastern China.

Effects of climate changes on dust aerosol over East Asia from RegCM3

In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present(1991-2000, following the observed concentration of the greenhouse gases) and future(2091-2100,following the A1B scenario) dust aerosol. Three experiments are performed over East Asia at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, driven by the outputs from a global model of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate(MIROC3.2_hires), two without(Exp.1 for the present and Exp.2 for the future) and one with(Exp.3 for the future) the radiative effects of dust aerosols. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosols and the feedback of radiative effects in the future are investigated by comparing differences of Exp.2 and Exp.1, Exp.3 and Exp.2, respectively. Results show that global warming will lead to the increases of dust emissions and column burden by 2% and 14% over East Asia, characterized by the increase in December-January-February-March(DJFM) and the decrease in Aprile May(AM). Similar variations are also seen in the projected frequencies of high dust emission events, showing an advanced active season of dust in the future. The net top-of-atmosphere(TOA)radiative forcing is positive over the desert source regions and negative over downwind regions, while the surface radiative forcing is negative over the domain, which will lead to a reduction of dust emissions and column burden.

Study on Growth Monitoring and Yield Prediction of Winter Wheat in the South of Shanxi Province Based on MERSI Data and ALMANAC Crop Model

Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting have important implications for food security and agricultural macro-control. Crop simulation and satellite remote sensing have their own advantages, combining the two can improve the real-time mechanism and accuracy of agricultural monitoring and evaluation. The research is based on the MERSI data carried by China’s new generation Fengyun-3 meteorological satellite, combined with the US ALMANAC crop model, established the NDVI-LAI model and realized the acquisition of LAI data from point to surface. Because of the principle of the relationship between the morphological changes of LAI curve and the growth of crops, an index that can be used to determine the growth of crops is established to realize real-time, dynamic and wide-scale monitoring of winter wheat growth. At the same time, the index was used to select the different key growth stages of winter wheat for yield estimation. The results showed that the relative error of total yield during the filling period was low, nearly 5%. The research results show that the combination of domestic meteorological satellite Fengyun-3 and ALMANAC crop model for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation is feasible, and further expands the application range of domestic satellites.

Future changes in thermal comfort conditions over China based on multi-RegCM4 simulations

A set of high resolution(25 km)21st century climate change projections using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by four global model simulations were conducted over East Asia under the mid-range RCP4.5 scenario.In the present paper,the authors investigate the change in thermal comfort conditions over china based on an ensemble of the projections,using the index of effective temperature(ET),which considers the aggregate effects of temperature,relative humidity,and wind on human thermal perception.The analysis also accounts for exposure as measured by distributed population amount scenarios.The authors find that the general increase in ET leads to a large increase in population exposure to very hot days(a China-aggregated sixfold increase in‘person-days’by the end of the 21st century.There is a decrease in cool,cold,and very cold person-days.Meanwhile,a decrease in comfortable day conditions by 22%person-days is found despite an increase in climate-based comfortable days.Analysis of the different contributions to the changes(climate,population,and interactions between the two)show that climate effects play a more important role in the hot end of the thermal comfort categories,while the population effects tend to be dominant in the cold categories.Thus,overall,even a mid-level warming scenario is found to increase the thermal stress over China,although there is a strong geographical dependence.The inclusion of population exposure strongly modulates the climateonly signal,which highlights the need for including socioeconomic factors in the assessment of risks associated with climate change.

Changes of heating and cooling degree days over China in response toglobal warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ and 4℃

Future changes of heating degree days （HDD） and cooling degree days （CDD） in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over East Asia using the regional climate model version 4.4 （RegCM4.4）driven by the global models of CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR. Under global warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃,and 4℃, significant decrease of HDD can be found over China without considering population factor, with greater decrease over high elevationand high latitude regions, including the Tibetan Plateau, the northern part of Northeast China, and Northwest China; while population-weightedHDD increased in areas where population will increase in the future, such as Beijing, Tianjin, parts of southern Hebei, northern Shandong andHenan provinces. Similarly, the CDD projections with and without considering population factor are largely different. Specifically, withoutconsidering population, increase of CDD were observed over most parts of China except the Tibetan Plateau where the CDD remained zerobecause of the cold climate even under global warming; while considering population factor, the future CDD decreases in South China andincreases in North China, the Sichuan Basin, and the southeastern coastal areas, which is directly related to the population changes. The differentfuture changes of HDD and CDD when considering and disregarding the effects of population show that population distribution plays animportant role in energy consumption, which should be considered in future research.

Performance of RegCM4 over Major River Basins in China

A long-term simulation for the period 1990–2010 is conducted with the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ Regional Climate Model（RegCM4）, driven by ERA-Interim boundary conditions at a grid spacing of 25 km. The Community Land Model（CLM） is used to describe land surface processes, with updates in the surface parameters,including the land cover and surface emissivity. The simulation is compared against observations to evaluate the model performance in reproducing the present day climatology and interannual variability over the 10 main river basins in China,with focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are also considered in the model assessment. Results show that the model reproduces the present day climatology over China and its main river basins, with better performances in June–July–August compared to December–January–February（DJF）.In DJF, we find a warm bias at high latitudes, underestimated precipitation in the south, and overestimated precipitation in the north. The model in general captures the observed interannual variability, with greater skill for temperature. We also find an underestimation of heavy precipitation events in eastern China, and an underestimation of consecutive dry days in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau. Similar biases for both mean climatology and extremes are found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis, indicating the difficulties for climate models in simulating extreme monsoon climate events over East Asia.

Soil restoration research advances of artificial sand-binding vegetation ecosystem in the Tengger Desert, Northern China

Soil plays an important role in desert ecosystem, and is vital in constructing a steady desert ecosystem. The management and restoration of desertified land have been the focus of much discussion. The soil in Shapotou desert region has developed remarkably since artificial sand-binding vegetation established in 1946. The longer the period of dune stabilization, the greater the thickness of microbiotic crusts and subsoil. Meanwhile, proportion of silt and clay increased significantly, and soil bulk density declinced. The content of soil organic matter, N, P, and K similarly increased. Therefore, soil has developed from aeolian sand soil to Calcic-Orthic aridisols. This paper discusses the effects brought about by dust, microbiotic soil crust and soil microbes on soil-forming process. Then, we analyzed the relation between soil formation and sand-binding vegetation evolution, in order to provide a baseline for both research on desert ecosystem recovery and ecological environment governance in arid and semi-arid areas.

Change Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Summer Precipitation Anomaly in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi Province

[ Objective] The research aimed to study change characteristics and formation cause of summer precipitation abnormality in Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi Province. [ Method] Based on summer precipitation data at 15 observation stations in Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi Province and NCEP/NCAR dataset from 1961 to 2008, change characteristics of summer precipitation in the region were investigated by using linear trend estimation and composite analysis. [Result] Summer rainfall had decrease trend in most parts of northem Shaanxi Province, but had increase trend in western and southern regions. The interannual and interdecadal variations were obvious. It had a large amount of precipitation from the mid- 1970s to the mid-1990s, while summer rainfall had decrease trend after the mid-1990s and increase trend in recent years. In wet years, it was a large positive anomaly zone from western Ural Mountains to northem Lake Baikal at middle and high latitudes, indicating that there was a blocking high over the Ural Mountains, while it was negative anomaly zone from northern Okhotsk Sea to Lake Baikal. From Northwest Pacific Ocean to Bo- hal Sea Bay and North China, it was a wide range of significant positive anomaly zone, which was favorable for Westem Pacific subtropical high ex- tending westward and northward. The analysis in dry years showed opposite circulation configuration. It was ＂ -, ＋, -＂ wave train distribution in middle and high latitudes and positive anomaly zone along the Sea of Okhotsk. Western Pacific subtropical high was also by south and east. Major water vapor was from southeast direction in wet years, and abundant water vapor caused more summer rainfall in northern Shaanxi. In dry years, water vapor was from westerly tuming southerly flow. It was weaker and by east. [ Conclusion] The research provided reference for reasonable utilization of summer precipitation in the zone.

Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) in winter intraseasonal variability over Ural

The modulation of winter intraseasonal variability(ISV)by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)is investigated through three sets of reanalysis data and numerical experiments with the NCEP’s atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM).Results show that the positive phase of the AMO tends to intensify ISV activity over the northern Atlantic and shift ISV activity over the Ural Mountains toward the south,causing weakened ISV activity at 200 hPa in the north to the Urals and intensified activity in the south.The modulation of ISV activity by the AMO over the Urals is then explored through comparison of the composite evolution of anomalous ISV cases for the different AMO phases.Fewer ISV cases are found in the AMO positive phase than the negative phase,but no substantial difference in the temporal evolution of anomalous ISV events between the two opposing phases of the AMO.Thus,the AMO exerts its modulation through influencing the occurrence frequency of ISV events,rather than their development or evolution processes.A similar result is seen in the AGCM sensitivity experiments.

Current Situation and Evolution of Drought and Flood in Fen-wei Plain

Based on the latest results and data of drought and flood in Fen-wei Plain, current situation and evolution of drought and flood in Fen-wei Plain were analyzed. The results show that in Fen-wei Plain drought and flood are natural disasters bringing about the most serious damage, and drought risk in east central Weihe Plain is serious. In Fen-wei Plain, precipitation tended to decrease, and temperature, drought days and intensity increased over the past 50 years. There were obvious differences between two decades in drought and flood. Drought was the severest in the 1990s, and flood was the most serious in Fenhe Plain in the 1960s and in Weihe Plain from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. Over the past ten years, precipitation and flood frequency increased, and temperature, drought days and intensity decreased. In Fen-wei Plain, temperature will rise and precipitation will increase slightly in next 20 -40 years. Monitoring and early warning capability of drought and flood in Fen-wei Plain have im- proved gradually, but some issues need to be paid more attention to and solved.

Interdecadal change of snow depth in winter over the Tibetan Plateau and its effect on summer precipitation in China

This paper obtained a set of consecutive and long-recorded observational snow depth data from 51 observation stations by choosing, removing and interpolating original observation data over the Tibetan Plateau for 1961-2006. We used monthly precipitation and temperature data from 160 stations in China for 1951-2006, which was collected by the National Climate Center. Through calculating and analyzing the correlation coefficient, significance test, polynomial trend fitting, composite analysis and abrupt change test, this paper studied the interdecadal change of winter snow over the Tibetan Plateau and its relationship to summer pre- cipitation and temperature in China, and to tropospheric atmospheric temperature. This paper also studied general circulation and East Asian summer monsoon under the background of global warming.

Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.

The Effect of Solar Cycle on Climate of Northeast Asia

The impact of solar activity on climate system is spatiotemporally selective and usually more significant on the regional scale. Using statistical methods and solar radio flux(SRF) data, this paper investigates the impact of the solar11-yr cycle on regional climate of Northeast Asia in recent decades. Significant differences in winter temperature,precipitation, and the atmospheric circulation over Northeast Asia are found between peak and valley solar activity years. In peak years, temperature is higher over vast areas of the Eurasian continent in middle and high latitudes, and prone to producing anomalous high pressure there. Northeast Asia is located to the south of the anomalous high pressure, where the easterlies prevail and transport moisture from the western Pacific Ocean to the inland of East Asia and intensify precipitation there. In valley years, temperature is lower over the Eurasian continent and northern Pacific Ocean in middle and high latitudes, and there maintain anomalous low pressure systems in the two regions. Over the Northeast Asian continent, north winds prevail, which transport cold and dry air mass from the high latitude to Northeast Asia and reduce precipitation there. The correlation coefficient of winter precipitation in Northeast China and SRF reaches 0.4, and is statistically significant at the 99% confidence level based on the Student's t-test. The latent heat flux anomalies over the Pacific Ocean caused by solar cycle could explain the spatial pattern of abnormal winter precipitation of China, suggesting that the solar activity may change the climate of Northeast Asia through air–sea interaction.