Comparative Analysis of Energy Characteristics of Two Southwest Vortices in Sichuan Under Similar Circulation Backgrounds

Based on ERA5 reanalysis data,the present study analyzed the thermal energy development mechanism and kinetic energy conversion characteristics of two extreme rainstorm processes in relation to the shallow southwest vortex in the warm-sector during a“rain-generated vortex”process and the deep southwest vortex in a“vortex-generated rain”process.The findings were as follows:(1)During the extreme rainstorm on August 11,2020(hereinafter referred to as the“8·11”process),intense surface heating and a high-energy unstable environment were observed.The mesoscale convergence system triggered convection to produce heavy rainfall,and the release of latent condensation heat generated by the rainfall promoted the formation of a southwest vortex.The significant increase(decrease)in atmospheric diabatic heating and kinetic energy preceded the increase(decrease)in vorticity.By contrast,the extreme rainstorm on August 16,2020(hereinafter referred to as the“8·16”process)involved the generation of southwest vortex in a low-energy and highhumidity environment.The dynamic uplift of the southwest vortex triggered rainfall,and the release of condensation latent heat from rainfall further strengthened the development of the southwest vortex.The significant increase(decrease)in atmospheric diabatic heating and kinetic energy exhibited a delayed progression compared to the increase(decrease)in vorticity.(2)The heating effect around the southwest vortex region was non-uniform,and the heating intensity varied in different stages.In the“8·11”process,the heating effect was the strongest in the initial stage,but weakened during the vortex's development.On the contrary,the heating effect was initially weak in the“8·16”process,and intensified during the development stage.(3)The available potential energy of the“8·11”process significantly increased in kinetic energy converted from rotational and divergent winds through baroclinic action,and the divergent wind energy continued to convert into rotational wind energy.By contrast,the“8·16”process involved the conversion of rotational wind energy into divergent wind energy,which in turn converted kinetic energy back into available potential energy,thereby impeding the further development and maintenance of the southwest vortex.

The Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Rainstorm Disaster in Sichuan Province over the Past Decade

The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm disaster in Sichuan Province were investigated by statistical analysis method based on 2002-2015 rainstorm disaster data of Sichuan Province. As shown by the results, the rainstorm disaster in Sichuan Province was distributed mainly in four regions including Liangshan Prefecture and Sichuan Basin during 2002-2015, and the rainstorm disaster distribution had a good corresponding relationship with the rainstorm center regions;in terms of annual variation trend, the variation of rainstorm disaster frequency showed a significant quasi-2-3-year oscillation period;in terms of monthly distribution, June, July and August saw the heaviest rainstorms;the high death toll from rainstorms was attributed to not only routine rainfall, occurrence time and terrain feature, but also the populace’s awareness of disaster prevention and the disaster prevention measures they adopted. The research result has important significance to improve the pertinence and practicability of decision-making meteorological services.

ANALYSIS ON EFFECT OF SOUTH ASIA HIGH ON MID-SUMMER EXTREME DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN SICHUAN-CHONGQING REGION

NCEP/NCAR data are utilized to analyze an extreme flood year(1998) and an extreme dry year(2006) in the Sichuan-Chongqing region(SCR) and the results are as follows. The positive divergence of South Asia High(SAH) is stronger in the flood year; the position of the ridge line of SAH is southward compared with the annual average; Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) extends westward and its ridge line is southward. In the drought year, the positive divergence of SAH is weaker, its ridge line is northward, and the position of WPSH is also northward. As shown in the dynamics, in drought(flood) years, negative(positive) vorticity advection in the upper atmosphere can cause the atmosphere to ascend(descend), and anomalous circulation of SAH displays divergence(convergence), and anomalous circulation of the lower atmosphere shows convergence(divergence). Thermal structure of the atmosphere shows that there is warm(cold) temperature advection in the lower atmosphere, and the vertical distribution of diabetic heating causes SAH's local circulation to display convergence(divergence) and affects vertical motion of the lower atmosphere circulation eventually. To some extent, the two extreme years in the SCR is closely related to the vertical motion of atmosphere circulation and the variation of such vertical motion is caused by differences of interactions between SAH and lower atmosphere circulations.

Observational Facts Regarding the Joint Activities of the Southwest Vortex and Plateau Vortex after Its Departure from the Tibetan Plateau

Using atmospheric observational data from 1998 to 2013,station rainfall data,TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission） data,as well as annual statistics for the plateau vortex and shear line,the joint activity features of sustained departure plateau vortexes（SDPVs） and southwest vortexes（SWVs） are analyzed.Some new and useful observational facts and understanding are obtained about the joint activities of the two types of vortex.The results show that：（1） The joint active period of the two vortexes is from May to August,and mostly in June and July.（2） The SDPVs of the partnership mainly originate near Zaduo,while the SWVs come from Jiulong.（3） Most of the two vortexes move in almost the same direction,moving eastward together with the low trough.The SDPVs mainly act in the area to the north of the Yangtze River,while the SWVs are situated across the Yangtze River valley.（4） The joint activity of the two vortexes often produces sustained regional heavy rainfall to the south of the Yellow River,influencing wide areas of China,and even as far as the Korean Peninsula,Japan and Vietnam.（5） Most of the two vortexes are baroclinic or cold vortexes,and they both become strengthened in terms of their joint activity.（6） When the two vortexes move over the sea,their central pressure descends and their rainfall increases,especially for SWVs.（7） The two vortexes might spin over the same area simultaneously when there are tropical cyclones in the eastern and southern seas of China,or move southward together if a tropical cyclone appears near Hainan Island.

MODULATION OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ON TIBETAN PLATEAU VORTEX

This study uses NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data,NOAA outgoing long-wave radiation(OLR) data,the real-time multivariate MJO(RMM) index from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Tibetan Plateau vortex(TPV)data from the Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology to discuss modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)on the Tibetan Plateau Vortex(TPV).Wavelet and composite analysis are used.Results show that the MJO plays an important role in the occurrence of the TPV that the number of TPVs generated within an active period of the MJO is three times as much as that during an inactive period.In addition,during the active period,the number of the TPVs generated in phases 1 and 2 is larger than that in phases 3 and 7.After compositing phases 1 and 7 separately,all meteorological elements in phase 1 are apparently conducive to the generation of the TPV,whereas those in phase 7 are somewhat constrained.With its eastward propagation process,the MJO convection centre spreads eastward,and the vertical circulation within the tropical atmosphere changes.Due to the interaction between the mid-latitude and low-latitude atmosphere,changes occur in the baroclinic characteristics of the atmosphere,the available potential energy and eddy available potential energy of the atmosphere,and the circulation structures of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and surrounding areas.This results in significantly different water vapour transportation and latent heat distribution.Advantageous and disadvantageous conditions therefore alternate,leading to a significant difference among the numbers of plateau vortex in different phases.

Study of perturbing method in regional BGM ensemble prediction system

Based on an Ensemble Prediction System with the BGM method on the regional numerical prediction model AREM, Static State Perturbation （SSP, including Initial Random Perturbation and Perturbation Restriction） and Dynamic State Perturbation （DSP） are designed. The impacts of both perturbations on precipitation prediction are studied by analyzing a slrong precipitation process oc- curring during July 20-21, 2008. The results show that both SSP and DSP play a positive role in prediction of mesoscale precipita- tion, such as lowering the （missing） rate of precipitation prediction. SSP is mainly helpful for the 24-hour prediction, while DSP can improve both 24-hour and 48-hour prediction. DSP is better than the two SSPs in the hit rate of regional precipitation prediction. However, the former also has a little higher false alarm rate than the latter. DSP enlarges in some extent the dispersion of EPS, which is good for EPS.

Observational Facts of Sustained Departure Plateau Vortexes

By using the twice-daily atmospheric observation data from 1998 to 2012,station rainfall data,Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission（TRMM） data,as well as the plateau vortex and shear line year book,characteristics of the sustained departure plateau vortexes（SDPVs） are analyzed.Some new useful observational facts and understanding are obtained about the SDPV activities.The following results are obtained.（1）The active period of SDPVs is from June to August,most in July,unlike that of the unsustained departure plateau vortexes（UDPVs）,which have same occurrence frequencies in the three summer months.（2）The SDPVs,generated mainly in the Qumalai neighborhood and situated in a sheared surrounding,move eastward or northeastward,while the UDPVs are mainly led by the upper-level trough,and move eastward or southeastward.（3） The SDPVs influence wide areas of China,even far to the Korean Peninsula,Japan,and Vietnam.（4） The SDPVs change their intensities and properties on the way to the east.Most of them become stronger and produce downpour or sustained regional rainstorms to the south of Yellow River.（5）The longer the SDPV sustains,the more baroclinity it has.（6） When an SDPV moves into the sea,its central pressure descends and rainfall increases in all probability.（7） An SDPV might spin over the bend of the Yellow River when there exists a tropical cyclone in the East China Sea.It could also move oppositely to a landed tropical low pressure originated from the sea to the east of Taiwan or from the South China Sea.