THE INFLUENCE OF THE ZHOUSHAN ARCHIPELAGO TERRAIN ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TODD (NO.9806) BY NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Taking Tropical Cyclone (TC) No.9806 (Todd) as an example, the effects of Zhoushanarchipelago terrain on landfall TC are investigated by use of numerical simulation. Results show that, undertopographic influences of Zhoushan Islands, the westward-moving landfall TC deflects. And, small orographichighs and enhanced rainfall caused by climbing airflow on the windward slope of main mountains of theseislands are a result of effects of Zhoushan Islands. These results display some particular laws of effects ofsmall-sized islands on the landfall of TC.

Research on the Interannual Variability of the Great Whirl and the Related Mechanisms

Based on AVISO （archiving, validation and interpretation of satellite data in oceanography） data from 1993 to 2010, QuikSCAT （Quick Scatterometer） data from 2000 to 2008, and Argo data from 2003 to 2008, the interannual variability of the Great Whirl （GW） and related mechanisms are studied. It shows that the origin and termination times of the GW, as well as its location and intensity, have significant interarmual variability. The GW appeared earliest （latest） in 2004 （2008） and vanished ear- liest （latest） in 2006 （2001）, with the shortest （longest） duration in 2008 （2001）. Its center was most southward （northward） in 2007 （1995）, while the minimum （maximum） amplitude and area occurred in 2003 and 2002 （1997 and 2007）, respectively. The GW was weaker and disappeared earlier with its location tending to be in the southwest in 2003, while in 2005 it was stronger, van- ished later and tended to be in northeast. The abnormal years were often not the same among different characters of the GW, and were not all coincident with ENSO （El Nifio-Southern Oscillation） or IOD （Indian Ocean Dipole） events, indicating the very com- plex nature of GW variations. Mechanism investigations shows that the interannual variability of intraseasonal wind stress curl in GW region results in that of the GW. The generation of the GW is coincident with the arrival of Rossby waves at the Somali coast in spring; the intensity of the GW is also influenced by Rossby waves. The termination of the GW corresponds well to the second one of the top two peaks in the baroclinic energy conversion rate in GW region, and the intensity and the position of the GW are also closely related to the top two baroclinic energy conversion rates.

Evaluation of Precipitation in Multi-Generation Reanalyses with Land Observations over Zhejiang Province

Based on various statistical indices,the abilities of multi-generation reanalyses,namely the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1(R1),the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2(R2)and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR),to reproduce the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation over Zhejiang Province are comprehensively compared.The mean absolute bias percentages for three reanalyses are 20%(R1),10%(R2)and 37%(CFSR).R2(R1)gives the best(worst)general depiction of the spatial characteristics of the observed precipitation climatology,whereas a significant wet bias is noticed in the CFSR.All reanalyses reasonably reproduce the interannual variability with the correlation coefficients of 0.72(R1),0.72(R2)and 0.84(CFSR).All reanalyses well represent the first two modes of the observed precipitation through Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis,with CFSR giving the best capture of the principal components.The root-mean-square error(RMSE)is the largest(smallest)in the CFSR(R2).The large RMSE of CFSR in summer(especially in June)contributes mostly to its systematic wet bias.After 2001,the wet bias of CFSR substantially weakens,probably attributed to increasing observations assimilated in the CFSR.On a monthly basis,the percentage of neutral bias cases are similar for all reanalyses,while the ratio of positive(negative)bias cases for CFSR is distinctly larger(smaller)than that of R1 and R2.The proportions of negative bias cases for R1 and R2 begin to increase after 2001 while keeping stable for CFSR.On a daily basis,all reanalyses give good performances of reproducing light rain;however,the reflection of moderate rain and heavier rain by the CFSR is better than R1 and R2.Overall,despite being a third-generation reanalysis product,the CRSR does not exhibit comprehensive superiorities over R1 and R2 in all aspects on a regional scale.