Through the empirical test of the economic and stock market price index from 1994-2001.6, this article finds that the price tendency of the stock market in China could reflect the economic status and the future trend,...Through the empirical test of the economic and stock market price index from 1994-2001.6, this article finds that the price tendency of the stock market in China could reflect the economic status and the future trend, thus has the function of barometer, additionally through the normal analysis of the continuing falling of the stock price since July 2001, so, the paper comes to the conclusion that the falling price is the reflection of the weak macro economy and the accelerating recession of the industries, and therefore is a warning of the possible worsened economic tendency. Suggestions are to adjust the macro fiscal and financial policy to prevent the economy from recessing. By the way the article conducts some of the primary analyses of punishments against market defiance and reducing state owned shares, thus to clarify some of the unclear concepts and prevent the misleading of economic adjust ment.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(NO.01BJY089)
文摘Through the empirical test of the economic and stock market price index from 1994-2001.6, this article finds that the price tendency of the stock market in China could reflect the economic status and the future trend, thus has the function of barometer, additionally through the normal analysis of the continuing falling of the stock price since July 2001, so, the paper comes to the conclusion that the falling price is the reflection of the weak macro economy and the accelerating recession of the industries, and therefore is a warning of the possible worsened economic tendency. Suggestions are to adjust the macro fiscal and financial policy to prevent the economy from recessing. By the way the article conducts some of the primary analyses of punishments against market defiance and reducing state owned shares, thus to clarify some of the unclear concepts and prevent the misleading of economic adjust ment.
