针对安徽省天长和宿松气象站建站至2010年逐年平均风速资料,分别利用直接检验方法和3种间接检验方法:标准正态均一检验(the standard normalhomogeneity test,SNHT)、惩罚最大t检验(the penalized maximal t test,PMTT)和惩罚最大F检验(...针对安徽省天长和宿松气象站建站至2010年逐年平均风速资料,分别利用直接检验方法和3种间接检验方法:标准正态均一检验(the standard normalhomogeneity test,SNHT)、惩罚最大t检验(the penalized maximal t test,PMTT)和惩罚最大F检验(the penalized maximal F test,PMFT),对这两个气象站逐年平均风速序列进行了均一性检验,并对不同检验方法的效果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:1)站址迁移、观测场环境变化、仪器变更以及测风手段变化等均能对年平均风速序列的均一性产生影响,其中测风手段变化的影响最为明显。2)由于以气象台站观测记录为依据,直接检验得到的结果最为真实可信;此外SNHT、PMTT和PMFT方法对年平均风速序列的间断点均有一定的检验能力,但遗漏间断点的情况也比较明显。因而在年平均风速序列的均一性检验中,若气象台站观测记录相对较齐全,首先考虑采用直接检验,然后再考虑补充采用其他间接检验手段。展开更多
Based on Arctic sea ice concentration data and NCEP／NCAR reanalysis data, relationship between sea ice anomaly over the sea of Okhotsk and its vicinage and northern Pacific storm track during winter is discussed by s...Based on Arctic sea ice concentration data and NCEP／NCAR reanalysis data, relationship between sea ice anomaly over the sea of Okhotsk and its vicinage and northern Pacific storm track during winter is discussed by statistic analysis methods. It is found that with northern Pacific SSTA, sea ice area anomaly over southwest of the sea of Okhotsk can except crucial influence on the variation in vigor and extension （contraction） from northwest to southeast of nor{hem Pacific storm track. But with tl^e influence of SSTA, sea ice area anomaly over northeast of the sea of Okhotsk and the gulf of SheUkhow works mainly on the strength and the south-north movement of the storm track.展开更多
文摘针对安徽省天长和宿松气象站建站至2010年逐年平均风速资料,分别利用直接检验方法和3种间接检验方法:标准正态均一检验(the standard normalhomogeneity test,SNHT)、惩罚最大t检验(the penalized maximal t test,PMTT)和惩罚最大F检验(the penalized maximal F test,PMFT),对这两个气象站逐年平均风速序列进行了均一性检验,并对不同检验方法的效果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:1)站址迁移、观测场环境变化、仪器变更以及测风手段变化等均能对年平均风速序列的均一性产生影响,其中测风手段变化的影响最为明显。2)由于以气象台站观测记录为依据,直接检验得到的结果最为真实可信;此外SNHT、PMTT和PMFT方法对年平均风速序列的间断点均有一定的检验能力,但遗漏间断点的情况也比较明显。因而在年平均风速序列的均一性检验中,若气象台站观测记录相对较齐全,首先考虑采用直接检验,然后再考虑补充采用其他间接检验手段。
基金supported by the key project of Science and Technology Development Foundation of Regional Meteorological Center of Wuhan (No. QY-Z-200902)subsidized project of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Jiangsu Province (KLME050202) subsidized project of "Qing-lan" for the Young and Middle-aged Academic Pathfinders in Colleges and Universities of Jiangsu province
文摘Based on Arctic sea ice concentration data and NCEP／NCAR reanalysis data, relationship between sea ice anomaly over the sea of Okhotsk and its vicinage and northern Pacific storm track during winter is discussed by statistic analysis methods. It is found that with northern Pacific SSTA, sea ice area anomaly over southwest of the sea of Okhotsk can except crucial influence on the variation in vigor and extension （contraction） from northwest to southeast of nor{hem Pacific storm track. But with tl^e influence of SSTA, sea ice area anomaly over northeast of the sea of Okhotsk and the gulf of SheUkhow works mainly on the strength and the south-north movement of the storm track.
