Based on the daily sea surface wind field prediction data of Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) forecast model,National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP GFS) model and U.S.Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Pr...Based on the daily sea surface wind field prediction data of Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) forecast model,National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP GFS) model and U.S.Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System(NOGAPS) model at 12:00 UTC from June 28 to August 10 in 2009,the bias-removed ensemble mean(BRE) was used to do the forecast test on the sea surface wind fields,and the root-mean-square error(RMSE) was used to test and evaluate the forecast results.The results showed that the BRE considerably reduced the RMSEs of 24 and 48 h sea surface wind field forecasts,and the forecast skill was superior to that of the single model forecast.The RMSE decreases in the south of central Bohai Sea and the middle of the Yellow Sea were the most obvious.In addition,the BRE forecast improved evidently the forecast skill of the gale process which occurred during July 13-14 and August 7 in 2009.The forecast accuracy of the wind speed and the gale location was also improved.展开更多
基金Supported by Chinese Meteorological Administration's Special Funds(Meteorology) for Scientific Research on Public Causes( GYHY200906007)Gale Forecast Item of the Shengli Oil Field Observatory (2008001)~~
文摘Based on the daily sea surface wind field prediction data of Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) forecast model,National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP GFS) model and U.S.Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System(NOGAPS) model at 12:00 UTC from June 28 to August 10 in 2009,the bias-removed ensemble mean(BRE) was used to do the forecast test on the sea surface wind fields,and the root-mean-square error(RMSE) was used to test and evaluate the forecast results.The results showed that the BRE considerably reduced the RMSEs of 24 and 48 h sea surface wind field forecasts,and the forecast skill was superior to that of the single model forecast.The RMSE decreases in the south of central Bohai Sea and the middle of the Yellow Sea were the most obvious.In addition,the BRE forecast improved evidently the forecast skill of the gale process which occurred during July 13-14 and August 7 in 2009.The forecast accuracy of the wind speed and the gale location was also improved.
