Based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) reanalysis dataset from the University of Maryland and the method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variabilit...Based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) reanalysis dataset from the University of Maryland and the method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the equatorial Pacific subsurface oceanic temperature anomaly(SOTA) are captured.The first and second modes of the equatorial Pacific SOTA in the interannual and interdecadal variations are found respectively and the effect of the second mode on the ENSO cycle is discussed.Results show that the first mode of SOTA's interannual and interdecadal variabilities exhibit a dipole pattern,indicating that the warm and cold temperature anomalies appear simultaneously in the equatorial subsurface Pacific.The second mode shows coherent large-scale temperature anomalies in the equatorial subsurface Pacific,which is a dominant mode in the evolution of ENSO cycle.The temporal series of the second mode has a significant lead correlation with the Ni?o-3.4 index,which can make a precursory prediction signal for ENSO.The function of this prediction factor in SOTA is verified by composite and case analyses.展开更多
利用中国756个站点观测数据、Ni o 3区海温指数和74项环流指数等资料,应用EOF分析和相关分析等方法,对中国西部山区夏季(6—8月)降水的时空分布特征及其与ENSO和大尺度环流的相关关系进行分析。结果表明,中国西部山区夏季降水与冬季(上...利用中国756个站点观测数据、Ni o 3区海温指数和74项环流指数等资料,应用EOF分析和相关分析等方法,对中国西部山区夏季(6—8月)降水的时空分布特征及其与ENSO和大尺度环流的相关关系进行分析。结果表明,中国西部山区夏季降水与冬季(上年12月—2月)Ni o 3区海温具有显著的正相关关系,且两者的相关关系与月份、海拔高度关系密切,并具有年代际变化特征。西部山区降水还与春季(3—5月)西太平洋副热带高压的强度具有显著的正相关关系。将西部山区夏季平均降水作为预测量,前期冬季Ni o 3区海温和春季西太平洋副热带高压强度作为预测因子,分别对秦岭、巫山山区降水建立预测模型,并利用该预测模型对2009—2018年夏季降水进行独立样本回报检验,发现预测模型对秦岭、巫山山区的预测成功率分别为70%和80%,相对误差绝对值通常小于10%,预测效果良好。展开更多
Several numerical experiments were performed to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of sea surface temperature （SST） on tropical cyclone （TC） intensity. The results reveal that the relative SST withi...Several numerical experiments were performed to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of sea surface temperature （SST） on tropical cyclone （TC） intensity. The results reveal that the relative SST within a radius of 2-3 times the radius of maximum wind contributes positively and greatly to TC intensity, while the remote SST far away from the TC center could reduce storm intensity. The change of air sea temperature and moisture differences may be the reason why TC intensity is more sensitive to the relative rather than the absolute SST. As the inflow air moves toward the eyewall, warmer （colder） remote SST can gradually increase （decrease） the underlying surface air temperature and moisture, and thus decrease （increase） the air sea temperature and moisture differences, which lead to less （more） energy fluxes entering the eyewall and then decrease （increase） the TC intensity and make it less sensitive to the absolute SST change. Finally, with all the related dynamic and thermodynamic processes being taken into account, a schematic diagram for the effects of relative SST and absolute SST on TC intensity is proposed.展开更多
基金National Key Basic Research Program of China(2013CB956203)
文摘Based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) reanalysis dataset from the University of Maryland and the method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the equatorial Pacific subsurface oceanic temperature anomaly(SOTA) are captured.The first and second modes of the equatorial Pacific SOTA in the interannual and interdecadal variations are found respectively and the effect of the second mode on the ENSO cycle is discussed.Results show that the first mode of SOTA's interannual and interdecadal variabilities exhibit a dipole pattern,indicating that the warm and cold temperature anomalies appear simultaneously in the equatorial subsurface Pacific.The second mode shows coherent large-scale temperature anomalies in the equatorial subsurface Pacific,which is a dominant mode in the evolution of ENSO cycle.The temporal series of the second mode has a significant lead correlation with the Ni?o-3.4 index,which can make a precursory prediction signal for ENSO.The function of this prediction factor in SOTA is verified by composite and case analyses.
文摘利用中国756个站点观测数据、Ni o 3区海温指数和74项环流指数等资料,应用EOF分析和相关分析等方法,对中国西部山区夏季(6—8月)降水的时空分布特征及其与ENSO和大尺度环流的相关关系进行分析。结果表明,中国西部山区夏季降水与冬季(上年12月—2月)Ni o 3区海温具有显著的正相关关系,且两者的相关关系与月份、海拔高度关系密切,并具有年代际变化特征。西部山区降水还与春季(3—5月)西太平洋副热带高压的强度具有显著的正相关关系。将西部山区夏季平均降水作为预测量,前期冬季Ni o 3区海温和春季西太平洋副热带高压强度作为预测因子,分别对秦岭、巫山山区降水建立预测模型,并利用该预测模型对2009—2018年夏季降水进行独立样本回报检验,发现预测模型对秦岭、巫山山区的预测成功率分别为70%和80%,相对误差绝对值通常小于10%,预测效果良好。
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175090 and 40830958)National High Technology Research and Development(863)Program of China(2012AA091801)
文摘Several numerical experiments were performed to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of sea surface temperature （SST） on tropical cyclone （TC） intensity. The results reveal that the relative SST within a radius of 2-3 times the radius of maximum wind contributes positively and greatly to TC intensity, while the remote SST far away from the TC center could reduce storm intensity. The change of air sea temperature and moisture differences may be the reason why TC intensity is more sensitive to the relative rather than the absolute SST. As the inflow air moves toward the eyewall, warmer （colder） remote SST can gradually increase （decrease） the underlying surface air temperature and moisture, and thus decrease （increase） the air sea temperature and moisture differences, which lead to less （more） energy fluxes entering the eyewall and then decrease （increase） the TC intensity and make it less sensitive to the absolute SST change. Finally, with all the related dynamic and thermodynamic processes being taken into account, a schematic diagram for the effects of relative SST and absolute SST on TC intensity is proposed.
