利用美国环境预报中心(NCEP)的全球再分析资料和钱塘江流域6个气象站40多年的观测资料,建立了钱塘江流域统计降尺度模型。然后将IPCC AR5提供的大气环流模式Had GEM2-CC在RCP4.5情景下的结果输入统计降尺度模型,得到流域未来几十年的月...利用美国环境预报中心(NCEP)的全球再分析资料和钱塘江流域6个气象站40多年的观测资料,建立了钱塘江流域统计降尺度模型。然后将IPCC AR5提供的大气环流模式Had GEM2-CC在RCP4.5情景下的结果输入统计降尺度模型,得到流域未来几十年的月平均降水情况。结果表明,海平面气压、地面气温、500 h Pa、850 h Pa位势高度场和500 h Pa、850 h Pa比湿这6个因子与降水有较为密切的联系,并且区域降水特征与当地地理位置、地质地貌等特征有明显关系。钱塘江流域未来几十年的年降水量呈现波动增加趋势,各站点年平均统计降水量增加速率为每年0.216 mm。展开更多
A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal ...A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A "two-constraint selection" procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small data.Among all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the "representatives".Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are proposed.The final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and "two-constraint selection" procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.展开更多
文摘利用美国环境预报中心(NCEP)的全球再分析资料和钱塘江流域6个气象站40多年的观测资料,建立了钱塘江流域统计降尺度模型。然后将IPCC AR5提供的大气环流模式Had GEM2-CC在RCP4.5情景下的结果输入统计降尺度模型,得到流域未来几十年的月平均降水情况。结果表明,海平面气压、地面气温、500 h Pa、850 h Pa位势高度场和500 h Pa、850 h Pa比湿这6个因子与降水有较为密切的联系,并且区域降水特征与当地地理位置、地质地貌等特征有明显关系。钱塘江流域未来几十年的年降水量呈现波动增加趋势,各站点年平均统计降水量增加速率为每年0.216 mm。
基金Project(50809058)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A "two-constraint selection" procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small data.Among all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the "representatives".Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are proposed.The final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and "two-constraint selection" procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.
