利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料对2016年8月21日傍晚到夜间贺兰山沿山特大致洪极值暴雨展开研究,分析了异常大气环流形势及其影响,并利用天气研究和预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)进行数值模拟和地形敏感...利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料对2016年8月21日傍晚到夜间贺兰山沿山特大致洪极值暴雨展开研究,分析了异常大气环流形势及其影响,并利用天气研究和预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)进行数值模拟和地形敏感性试验,研究了贺兰山地形对暴雨过程的影响。结果表明:超强厄尔尼诺结束后的盛夏,大气环流形势发展异常,8月南亚高压和副热带高压异常偏强,西北地区东部处于高温、高湿、高能控制,副高的快速进退和冷平流的入侵,触发暖湿不稳定能量强烈聚集与快速释放,导致特大暴雨的爆发。其发生在200hPa高空急流分流区即强辐散区、中空西南气流的高温高湿区、低空偏南急流轴左侧流场最大弯曲处的强暖平流区、850hPa偏东大风速轴南侧的风速辐合区,天气尺度强迫作用相对较弱的环境中,500hPa短波槽与700hPa、850hPa低涡切变线和偏南偏东急流以及地面气旋式切变辐合线共同作用是其发生的主要影响系统。贺兰山地形对特大暴雨的发生有明显的增幅效应,主要是贺兰山地形阻挡与强迫抬升作用,促使低涡切变强烈发展从而影响了降水范围、强降水落区及其中心位置等。展开更多
Based on the observational hourly precipitation data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis 5(ERA5)products from 2006 to 2020,22 rainstorm processes in the eastern foot of Helan Mo...Based on the observational hourly precipitation data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis 5(ERA5)products from 2006 to 2020,22 rainstorm processes in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain are objectively classified by using the hierarchical clustering method,and the circulation characteristics of different patterns are comparatively analyzed in this study.The results show that the occurrences of rainstorm processes in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain are most closely related to three circulation patterns.PatternsⅠandⅢmainly occur in July and August,with similar zonal circulations in synoptic backgrounds.Specifically,the South Asia high and the western Pacific subtropical high are stronger and more northward than those in normal years.The frontal systems in westerlies are inactive,while the water vapor from the ocean surface in the south is mainly transported to the rainstorm area by the southerly jet stream at 700 h Pa.The dynamic lifting anomalies are relatively weak,the instability of atmospheric stratification is anomalously strong,and thus the localized severe convective rainstorm is more significant.Comparatively,rainstorm processes of patternⅠare accompanied by stronger and deeper ascending motions,and the warm-sector rainstorm is more extreme.PatternⅢshows a stronger and deeper convective instability,accompanied by larger low-level moisture.Rainstorm processes of patternⅡmainly occur in early summer and early autumn,presenting a meridional circulation pattern of high in the east and low in the west in terms of geopotential height.Moreover,the two low-level jets transporting the water vapor northward from the ocean on the east of China encounter with the frontal systems in westerlies,which makes the ascending motion in patternⅡanomalously strong and deep.The relatively weak instability of atmospheric stratification causes weak convection and long-lasting precipitation formed by the confluence of cold air and warm air.This study may help improve rainstorm forecasting in arid regions.展开更多
The onset,evolution,and propagation processes of convective cells can be reflected by the organizational morphology of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs),which are key factors in determining the potential for heavy pr...The onset,evolution,and propagation processes of convective cells can be reflected by the organizational morphology of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs),which are key factors in determining the potential for heavy precipitation.This paper proposed a method for objectively classifying and segmenting MCSs using geosynchronous satellite observations.Validation of the product relative to the classification in radar composite reflectivity imagery indicates that the algorithm offers skill for discriminating between convective and stratiform areas and matched 65%of convective area identifications in radar imagery with a false alarm rate of 39%and an accuracy of 94%.A quantitative evaluation of the similarity between the structures of 50 MCSs randomly obtained from satellite and radar observations shows that the similarity was as high as 60%.For further testing,the organizational modes of the MCS that caused the heavy precipitation in Northwest China on August 21,2016(hereinafter known as the“0821”rainstorm)were identified.It was found that the MCS,accompanied by the“0821”rainstorm,successively exhibited modes of the isolated cell,squall line with parallel stratiform(PS)rain,and non-linear system during its life cycle.Among them,the PS mode might have played a key role in causing this flooding.These findings are in line with previous studies.展开更多
文摘利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料对2016年8月21日傍晚到夜间贺兰山沿山特大致洪极值暴雨展开研究,分析了异常大气环流形势及其影响,并利用天气研究和预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)进行数值模拟和地形敏感性试验,研究了贺兰山地形对暴雨过程的影响。结果表明:超强厄尔尼诺结束后的盛夏,大气环流形势发展异常,8月南亚高压和副热带高压异常偏强,西北地区东部处于高温、高湿、高能控制,副高的快速进退和冷平流的入侵,触发暖湿不稳定能量强烈聚集与快速释放,导致特大暴雨的爆发。其发生在200hPa高空急流分流区即强辐散区、中空西南气流的高温高湿区、低空偏南急流轴左侧流场最大弯曲处的强暖平流区、850hPa偏东大风速轴南侧的风速辐合区,天气尺度强迫作用相对较弱的环境中,500hPa短波槽与700hPa、850hPa低涡切变线和偏南偏东急流以及地面气旋式切变辐合线共同作用是其发生的主要影响系统。贺兰山地形对特大暴雨的发生有明显的增幅效应,主要是贺兰山地形阻挡与强迫抬升作用,促使低涡切变强烈发展从而影响了降水范围、强降水落区及其中心位置等。
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41965001)Program of Technology and Innovation for Leading Talents in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region(2021GKLRLX05)。
文摘Based on the observational hourly precipitation data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis 5(ERA5)products from 2006 to 2020,22 rainstorm processes in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain are objectively classified by using the hierarchical clustering method,and the circulation characteristics of different patterns are comparatively analyzed in this study.The results show that the occurrences of rainstorm processes in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain are most closely related to three circulation patterns.PatternsⅠandⅢmainly occur in July and August,with similar zonal circulations in synoptic backgrounds.Specifically,the South Asia high and the western Pacific subtropical high are stronger and more northward than those in normal years.The frontal systems in westerlies are inactive,while the water vapor from the ocean surface in the south is mainly transported to the rainstorm area by the southerly jet stream at 700 h Pa.The dynamic lifting anomalies are relatively weak,the instability of atmospheric stratification is anomalously strong,and thus the localized severe convective rainstorm is more significant.Comparatively,rainstorm processes of patternⅠare accompanied by stronger and deeper ascending motions,and the warm-sector rainstorm is more extreme.PatternⅢshows a stronger and deeper convective instability,accompanied by larger low-level moisture.Rainstorm processes of patternⅡmainly occur in early summer and early autumn,presenting a meridional circulation pattern of high in the east and low in the west in terms of geopotential height.Moreover,the two low-level jets transporting the water vapor northward from the ocean on the east of China encounter with the frontal systems in westerlies,which makes the ascending motion in patternⅡanomalously strong and deep.The relatively weak instability of atmospheric stratification causes weak convection and long-lasting precipitation formed by the confluence of cold air and warm air.This study may help improve rainstorm forecasting in arid regions.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41965001)。
文摘The onset,evolution,and propagation processes of convective cells can be reflected by the organizational morphology of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs),which are key factors in determining the potential for heavy precipitation.This paper proposed a method for objectively classifying and segmenting MCSs using geosynchronous satellite observations.Validation of the product relative to the classification in radar composite reflectivity imagery indicates that the algorithm offers skill for discriminating between convective and stratiform areas and matched 65%of convective area identifications in radar imagery with a false alarm rate of 39%and an accuracy of 94%.A quantitative evaluation of the similarity between the structures of 50 MCSs randomly obtained from satellite and radar observations shows that the similarity was as high as 60%.For further testing,the organizational modes of the MCS that caused the heavy precipitation in Northwest China on August 21,2016(hereinafter known as the“0821”rainstorm)were identified.It was found that the MCS,accompanied by the“0821”rainstorm,successively exhibited modes of the isolated cell,squall line with parallel stratiform(PS)rain,and non-linear system during its life cycle.Among them,the PS mode might have played a key role in causing this flooding.These findings are in line with previous studies.
