近年来,我国经济发展迅速,小额贷款盛行,影子银行由于其特性在资金融通方面发挥着重要的作用,受到广大民众和中小企业的青睐。在影子银行起到提高金融效率促进经济发展作用的同时,也蕴含了许多风险,影子银行监管难度大,且资金链隐蔽复...近年来,我国经济发展迅速,小额贷款盛行,影子银行由于其特性在资金融通方面发挥着重要的作用,受到广大民众和中小企业的青睐。在影子银行起到提高金融效率促进经济发展作用的同时,也蕴含了许多风险,影子银行监管难度大,且资金链隐蔽复杂。蚂蚁集团主要收入来源于放贷业务,其通过ABS循环放贷,体量大范围广,能作为典型的影子银行。因此可以通过蚂蚁集团的业务模式、盈利手段分析影子银行存在的高杠杆率、高关联性、期限错配、流动性、信用及道德风险,并针对这些方面提出一些监管建议,降低杠杆、建立完善信息披露制度、风险预警机制、调整监管方式、健全法律法规,希望能有效控制影子银行的风险。In recent years, China’s economy has developed rapidly, with microfinance gaining popularity. Shadow banking, due to its unique characteristics, plays a significant role in financial intermediation and has become a favored option for the general public and small and medium-sized enterprises. While shadow banking enhances financial efficiency and promotes economic development, it also poses numerous risks. The sector is difficult to regulate, and its capital chain is concealed and complex. Ant Group, whose primary revenue comes from lending operations and extensive use of ABS (asset-backed securities) for circular lending, can serve as a typical example of shadow banking due to its large scale and broad reach. Therefore, by analyzing Ant Group’s business model and profit-making methods, we can identify high leverage, high interconnectedness, maturity mismatch, liquidity risks, credit risks, and moral hazards inherent in shadow banking. Based on these insights, we propose regulatory recommendations such as reducing leverage, establishing a comprehensive information disclosure system, a risk early warning mechanism, adjusting regulatory approaches, and improving laws and regulations. These measures aim to effectively control risks associated with shadow banking.展开更多
文章基于2018年1月1日至2023年5月22日医药行业指数日度收益率数据,采用GARCH-Copula-CoVaR模型实证检验了医药行业系统间风险溢出效应。研究结果显示:(1) 医药行业内部存在明显的关联性和风险溢出效应,风险溢出度最大值是最小值的4.3倍...文章基于2018年1月1日至2023年5月22日医药行业指数日度收益率数据,采用GARCH-Copula-CoVaR模型实证检验了医药行业系统间风险溢出效应。研究结果显示:(1) 医药行业内部存在明显的关联性和风险溢出效应,风险溢出度最大值是最小值的4.3倍;(2) 医疗服务行业是医药行业系统性风险中的重要性行业,承担风险溢出角色,医药商业行业则承担风险接收角色。Based on the daily return data of the pharmaceutical industry index from January 1, 2018 to May 22, 2023, this article empirically tests the risk spillover effect among systems in the pharmaceutical industry by using the GARCH-Copula-CoVaR model. The research results show that: (1) There is an obvious correlation and risk spillover effect within the pharmaceutical industry, and the maximum value of the risk spillover degree is 4.3 times that of the minimum value;(2) The medical service industry is an important industry in the systematic risk of the pharmaceutical industry and undertakes the role of risk spillover, while the pharmaceutical commercial industry undertakes the role of risk reception.展开更多
文摘近年来,我国经济发展迅速,小额贷款盛行,影子银行由于其特性在资金融通方面发挥着重要的作用,受到广大民众和中小企业的青睐。在影子银行起到提高金融效率促进经济发展作用的同时,也蕴含了许多风险,影子银行监管难度大,且资金链隐蔽复杂。蚂蚁集团主要收入来源于放贷业务,其通过ABS循环放贷,体量大范围广,能作为典型的影子银行。因此可以通过蚂蚁集团的业务模式、盈利手段分析影子银行存在的高杠杆率、高关联性、期限错配、流动性、信用及道德风险,并针对这些方面提出一些监管建议,降低杠杆、建立完善信息披露制度、风险预警机制、调整监管方式、健全法律法规,希望能有效控制影子银行的风险。In recent years, China’s economy has developed rapidly, with microfinance gaining popularity. Shadow banking, due to its unique characteristics, plays a significant role in financial intermediation and has become a favored option for the general public and small and medium-sized enterprises. While shadow banking enhances financial efficiency and promotes economic development, it also poses numerous risks. The sector is difficult to regulate, and its capital chain is concealed and complex. Ant Group, whose primary revenue comes from lending operations and extensive use of ABS (asset-backed securities) for circular lending, can serve as a typical example of shadow banking due to its large scale and broad reach. Therefore, by analyzing Ant Group’s business model and profit-making methods, we can identify high leverage, high interconnectedness, maturity mismatch, liquidity risks, credit risks, and moral hazards inherent in shadow banking. Based on these insights, we propose regulatory recommendations such as reducing leverage, establishing a comprehensive information disclosure system, a risk early warning mechanism, adjusting regulatory approaches, and improving laws and regulations. These measures aim to effectively control risks associated with shadow banking.
文摘文章基于2018年1月1日至2023年5月22日医药行业指数日度收益率数据,采用GARCH-Copula-CoVaR模型实证检验了医药行业系统间风险溢出效应。研究结果显示:(1) 医药行业内部存在明显的关联性和风险溢出效应,风险溢出度最大值是最小值的4.3倍;(2) 医疗服务行业是医药行业系统性风险中的重要性行业,承担风险溢出角色,医药商业行业则承担风险接收角色。Based on the daily return data of the pharmaceutical industry index from January 1, 2018 to May 22, 2023, this article empirically tests the risk spillover effect among systems in the pharmaceutical industry by using the GARCH-Copula-CoVaR model. The research results show that: (1) There is an obvious correlation and risk spillover effect within the pharmaceutical industry, and the maximum value of the risk spillover degree is 4.3 times that of the minimum value;(2) The medical service industry is an important industry in the systematic risk of the pharmaceutical industry and undertakes the role of risk spillover, while the pharmaceutical commercial industry undertakes the role of risk reception.
