通过经济学和地震学的不同学科交叉研究,利用Elliott经济波浪理论对地震序列结构进行分析,结果表明具有非常好的适用性,不仅解决了地震序列的分类和发展规律问题,而且提出了预测震级的等面积判定法。采用Elliott波浪理论图形化分析的方...通过经济学和地震学的不同学科交叉研究,利用Elliott经济波浪理论对地震序列结构进行分析,结果表明具有非常好的适用性,不仅解决了地震序列的分类和发展规律问题,而且提出了预测震级的等面积判定法。采用Elliott波浪理论图形化分析的方法,分析大震前的地震活动性的时空变化和地震周期,把地震序列的发震模式分为渐进型和突发型2类。依据Elliott相关市场分析理论精炼出的12种牛市波浪模式,把地震序列的发震规律归类为三角形、梯形和矩形3大类(12个小类)模式。在发震模式和发震规律的基础上提出了大震震级预测的等面积判定法,同时给出了地震序列空间范围选取规则和大震发生时间预测的经验性判定法。结论认为,学科之间既有差异性,又有很强的交融性,Elliott波浪理论在地震序列结构分析中表现出很高的适用性,不仅清楚地图形化了大地震的孕震过程,且理论化了地震序列触发模式,发震规律和震级预测,这将会在未来有效地提高地震趋势预测的概率水平。Through different interdisciplinary studies in economics and seismology, use Elliott wave theory to analyze the seismic sequence structure, the results showed that the applicability is very well, not only the classification and development law of earthquake sequences are solved, but the equal area judgement method which to predict the magnitude are also put forward. By using the graphical analysis of Elliott wave theory, Analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of seismicity before large earthquakes, the earthquake sequences are divided into 2 types, the progressive type and the flash type. According to the 12 bull market wave model of relevant Elliott market analysis theory. The earthquake regularity of the earthquake sequence is classified into 3 categories (12 small classes): triangle, trapezoid and rectangle. Based on the model and law of earthquake occurrence, the equal area determination method is put forward in forecast of earthquake magnitude. At the same time, the empirical method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the prediction of large earthquake occurrence time. At the same time, the empirical determination method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the occurrence time of large earthquake. The conclusion is that there are not only differences between subjects, but also a strong blend. Elliott wave theory showed a high applicability in the analysis of seismic sequence structure, not only make clear graphical seismogenic process of large earthquakes and put forward the theory of the earthquake sequence trigger mode, the law of earthquake prediction and the earthquake magnitude prediction, this will effectively improve the probability level of earthquake tendency prediction in the future.展开更多
文摘通过经济学和地震学的不同学科交叉研究,利用Elliott经济波浪理论对地震序列结构进行分析,结果表明具有非常好的适用性,不仅解决了地震序列的分类和发展规律问题,而且提出了预测震级的等面积判定法。采用Elliott波浪理论图形化分析的方法,分析大震前的地震活动性的时空变化和地震周期,把地震序列的发震模式分为渐进型和突发型2类。依据Elliott相关市场分析理论精炼出的12种牛市波浪模式,把地震序列的发震规律归类为三角形、梯形和矩形3大类(12个小类)模式。在发震模式和发震规律的基础上提出了大震震级预测的等面积判定法,同时给出了地震序列空间范围选取规则和大震发生时间预测的经验性判定法。结论认为,学科之间既有差异性,又有很强的交融性,Elliott波浪理论在地震序列结构分析中表现出很高的适用性,不仅清楚地图形化了大地震的孕震过程,且理论化了地震序列触发模式,发震规律和震级预测,这将会在未来有效地提高地震趋势预测的概率水平。Through different interdisciplinary studies in economics and seismology, use Elliott wave theory to analyze the seismic sequence structure, the results showed that the applicability is very well, not only the classification and development law of earthquake sequences are solved, but the equal area judgement method which to predict the magnitude are also put forward. By using the graphical analysis of Elliott wave theory, Analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of seismicity before large earthquakes, the earthquake sequences are divided into 2 types, the progressive type and the flash type. According to the 12 bull market wave model of relevant Elliott market analysis theory. The earthquake regularity of the earthquake sequence is classified into 3 categories (12 small classes): triangle, trapezoid and rectangle. Based on the model and law of earthquake occurrence, the equal area determination method is put forward in forecast of earthquake magnitude. At the same time, the empirical method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the prediction of large earthquake occurrence time. At the same time, the empirical determination method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the occurrence time of large earthquake. The conclusion is that there are not only differences between subjects, but also a strong blend. Elliott wave theory showed a high applicability in the analysis of seismic sequence structure, not only make clear graphical seismogenic process of large earthquakes and put forward the theory of the earthquake sequence trigger mode, the law of earthquake prediction and the earthquake magnitude prediction, this will effectively improve the probability level of earthquake tendency prediction in the future.
