Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclo- nes landing in Guangdong are analyzed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 ...Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclo- nes landing in Guangdong are analyzed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years, and in the west of Pearl River Mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years to the west of Pearl River Mouth. The northwest Pacific that topical cyclones are generated is divided into 8 areas, and the SeaSur- face Temperature (SST) in each area is analyzed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years, and those of the warm pool are 12 and 2 years, respectively. This may be the physical reason for the generation tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) with SSA (SSA- MEM), the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the Pearl River Mouth are force- ast, and the results are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forecast.展开更多
基金Research on Short-Term Climate Systems--a key project in the 9th -five year economic de- velopment plan (96-908-05-07)
文摘Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclo- nes landing in Guangdong are analyzed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years, and in the west of Pearl River Mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years to the west of Pearl River Mouth. The northwest Pacific that topical cyclones are generated is divided into 8 areas, and the SeaSur- face Temperature (SST) in each area is analyzed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years, and those of the warm pool are 12 and 2 years, respectively. This may be the physical reason for the generation tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) with SSA (SSA- MEM), the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the Pearl River Mouth are force- ast, and the results are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forecast.
