昆明近300年的旱涝变化规律

应用昆明近３００年历史旱涝指数和近百年降雨观测资料，研究了旱涝历史气候演变、气候周期变化和年际变化的规律，探讨了厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子、大气环流因子对旱涝气候变化的影响。主要结果有：（１）昆明旱涝气候变化主要存在４０年和１１年的周期，４０年变化周期受厄尔尼诺变化周期影响，１１年变化周期受太阳黑子变化周期影响，厄尔尼诺和太阳黑子的周期变化是昆明旱涝周期变化的两大影响因子。（２）昆明降雨年际变化与大气环流因子存在很大的关系，其中南方涛动和西风带Ｗ．Ｃ．Ｅ型环流型不同配置产生的综合影响是昆明降雨年际变化的主要天气气候成因。

EVOLUTION LAW OF DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN KUNMING IN RECENT 300 YEARS

Using indexes of dryness and wetness in historical record over the recent recent years and rainfall data over the tatest century, the work involves itself with the study of climatological evolution of dryness and wetness. periodic variations of climate and interannual laws of variation. The discussion also covers the subjects of effects of El Nino. sunspot, predictors of general circulation on climatic variation of dryness and wetness. There arc main conclusions as follows: (1) The main cyclic variations of climate are 40 and 11 years in Kunming. the former being subject to that of El Nino and the latter to that of sunspots. They are two principal factors for periodic variations of dryness and wetness in Kunming. (2) A close relationship exists between interannual variations and general circulation factors for Kunming. The comprehensive influence as imposed by ENSO and allocations of W.C.E. patterns of circulation in the westerly are ma.tor weather and climate causes for the interannual variations of precipitation in Kunming.

云南秋季（9～10月）强降水的天气分析

对５００ｈＰａ作聚类，得出３类强降水的典型场，云南秋季强降水的影响系统有两大特点：第一类是西风带槽系统为主，热带、副热带系统配合。第二、第三类是副热带系统间的低涡辐合为上，西风带、热带系统配合；对４场典型强降水的主要物理量合成，进一步探讨云南秋季强降水的物理成因；通过１９８１～１９８５年秋季５３天１９８７５个预报因子的逐步判别，建立的判别函数有良好的消空防漏效果。最终提供一个由计算机输出的，判别有、无强降水的预报工具．