PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on t...PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on the process rainfall simulation are investigated.By comparing the results of hydrostatic and nor.hydrostatic experiments,the nonhydrostatic impact upon precipitation is also examined.It is found in this study thai PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 has advantage not only in theory but also in simulating results with real data.In MM5.however,the selection of physical processes,especially water-cycle process,is very important and crucial to precipitation forecast of the case.It is concluded that the model with Grell (1993) scheme for convection and condensation method for resolvable scale precipitation captured the rainstorm during 12-13 July 1994 in Beijing area more successfully展开更多
In order to study the characteristic features of the frontal motion over mountains, a frontal model is designed inthis paper. The analytical solution of the model with the assumption of semigeostrophic approximation a...In order to study the characteristic features of the frontal motion over mountains, a frontal model is designed inthis paper. The analytical solution of the model with the assumption of semigeostrophic approximation and no frichon is obtained and compared with numerical solution without the assumption. It assumes that the front is a free surface betWeen two nuid layers with different densihes. It also assumes that the mountain and the front are indefinitelylong. Therefore, the motion of such a front can be determined by the one-dimensional shallow water equationsystem. By making a series of experiments, we confirm the rule further that front can be retarded when climbing themountain and accelerated when going down the mountains. We also found some interesting characteristics of frontalstructure influenced by topography in addihon.展开更多
The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re...The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the authors generate an optimal initial condition for a typhoon by using the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. BDA is able to recover many of the structural features of typhoons including a warm-core vertex, the correct center position, and the strong circulation. As a result of BDA using a bogus surface low, dramatic improvement is achieved in the 72 h prediction of typhoon Herb. Through several cases, the initialization by BDA effectively generates the harmonious inner structure of the typhoon, but which is lacking in the original analysis field. Therefore the intensity forecast is improved greatly. Some improvements are made in the track forecast, but more work still needs to be done.展开更多
Background error covariance plays an important role in any variational data assimilation system, because it determines how information from observations is spread in model space and between different model variables. ...Background error covariance plays an important role in any variational data assimilation system, because it determines how information from observations is spread in model space and between different model variables. In this paper, the use of orthogonal wavelets in representation of background error covariance over a limited area is studied. Based on the WRF model and its 3D-VAR system, an algorithm using orthogonal wavelets to model background error covariance is developed. Because each wavelet function contains information on both position and scale, using a diagonal correlation matrix in wavelet space gives the possibility to represent some anisotropic and inhomogeneous characteristics of background error covariance. The experiments show that local correlation functions are better modeled than spectral methods. The formulation of wavelet background error covariance is tested with the typhoon Kaemi (2006). The results of experiments indicate that the subsequent forecasts of typhoon Kaemi’s track and intensity are significantly improved by the new method.展开更多
Following classical theory,a two-layer frontal model is designed.It assumes that frontal surface is the zero-order discontinuity of density.In this paper,the model is used to study orographically distorted and occlude...Following classical theory,a two-layer frontal model is designed.It assumes that frontal surface is the zero-order discontinuity of density.In this paper,the model is used to study orographically distorted and occluded fronts.It is indi- cated that the distortion and occlusion of cold fronts are different under different conditions of orography.Frontal in- tensity also influences the distortion and occlusion.Some rules are revealed and compared with observations.In addition,we have analysed the vertical structure of cold front above mountains and found that frontal surface may be bulged under the influence of orography when it climes the mountain.The bulge of frontal surface is just like the bore as pointed out by Long (1972) when he analysed fluid over obstacles.展开更多
基金This work was supported by LASGthe National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on the process rainfall simulation are investigated.By comparing the results of hydrostatic and nor.hydrostatic experiments,the nonhydrostatic impact upon precipitation is also examined.It is found in this study thai PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 has advantage not only in theory but also in simulating results with real data.In MM5.however,the selection of physical processes,especially water-cycle process,is very important and crucial to precipitation forecast of the case.It is concluded that the model with Grell (1993) scheme for convection and condensation method for resolvable scale precipitation captured the rainstorm during 12-13 July 1994 in Beijing area more successfully
文摘In order to study the characteristic features of the frontal motion over mountains, a frontal model is designed inthis paper. The analytical solution of the model with the assumption of semigeostrophic approximation and no frichon is obtained and compared with numerical solution without the assumption. It assumes that the front is a free surface betWeen two nuid layers with different densihes. It also assumes that the mountain and the front are indefinitelylong. Therefore, the motion of such a front can be determined by the one-dimensional shallow water equationsystem. By making a series of experiments, we confirm the rule further that front can be retarded when climbing themountain and accelerated when going down the mountains. We also found some interesting characteristics of frontalstructure influenced by topography in addihon.
文摘The MM5 and its four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system are used in this paper. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the authors generate an optimal initial condition for a typhoon by using the bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. BDA is able to recover many of the structural features of typhoons including a warm-core vertex, the correct center position, and the strong circulation. As a result of BDA using a bogus surface low, dramatic improvement is achieved in the 72 h prediction of typhoon Herb. Through several cases, the initialization by BDA effectively generates the harmonious inner structure of the typhoon, but which is lacking in the original analysis field. Therefore the intensity forecast is improved greatly. Some improvements are made in the track forecast, but more work still needs to be done.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775064)
文摘Background error covariance plays an important role in any variational data assimilation system, because it determines how information from observations is spread in model space and between different model variables. In this paper, the use of orthogonal wavelets in representation of background error covariance over a limited area is studied. Based on the WRF model and its 3D-VAR system, an algorithm using orthogonal wavelets to model background error covariance is developed. Because each wavelet function contains information on both position and scale, using a diagonal correlation matrix in wavelet space gives the possibility to represent some anisotropic and inhomogeneous characteristics of background error covariance. The experiments show that local correlation functions are better modeled than spectral methods. The formulation of wavelet background error covariance is tested with the typhoon Kaemi (2006). The results of experiments indicate that the subsequent forecasts of typhoon Kaemi’s track and intensity are significantly improved by the new method.
文摘Following classical theory,a two-layer frontal model is designed.It assumes that frontal surface is the zero-order discontinuity of density.In this paper,the model is used to study orographically distorted and occluded fronts.It is indi- cated that the distortion and occlusion of cold fronts are different under different conditions of orography.Frontal in- tensity also influences the distortion and occlusion.Some rules are revealed and compared with observations.In addition,we have analysed the vertical structure of cold front above mountains and found that frontal surface may be bulged under the influence of orography when it climes the mountain.The bulge of frontal surface is just like the bore as pointed out by Long (1972) when he analysed fluid over obstacles.
