在气候变化背景下,全球海表温度不断上升,并通过海气相互作用间接影响了全球各个区域的气候状况。本文运用相关、Mann-Kendall、T-滑移和快速傅里叶变换周期分析等方法,讨论了太平洋十年涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)、厄尔尼...在气候变化背景下,全球海表温度不断上升,并通过海气相互作用间接影响了全球各个区域的气候状况。本文运用相关、Mann-Kendall、T-滑移和快速傅里叶变换周期分析等方法,讨论了太平洋十年涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)、厄尔尼诺(El Niño, NINO)、北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)及印度洋偶极子(Dipole Mode Index, DMI)的突变时间等及其与中国温度和降水的空间相关性,得出如下结论:PDO与温度:冷期春季与北方正相关,秋季与南北方都为负相关;暖期夏和冬季与北方负相关,秋季与南方和北方负相关;PDO与降水:冷期九月与北方负相关,十月南正北负分布和十一月东正西负分布;暖期春季与华南和东北南部正相关,与华北负相关,秋季青藏区域负相关。NINO与温度负相关,夏季影响东北,秋季影响青藏;NINO与降水:春季与东部正相关,西部负相关,夏季与北方负相关,秋季与南方正相关,北方负相关分布,冬季与华南正相关。NAO与温度,春季与东北正相关,夏季与北方负相关,南方正相关;NAO与降水:春季上升东负西正分布,夏季下降南负北正分布,秋季上升与西部正相关。冬季稳定期与西南正东北负相关分布。DMI与我国降水关系,春到夏季增加与北方负相关,秋到冬季降低与华南北部正相关,与青藏北部负相关,冬到春季降低转换为增加趋势与东部海岸负相关。In the context of climate change, the global sea surface temperature continues to rise, and indirectly affects the climate conditions of various regions of the world through air-sea interaction. In this paper, by means of correlation, Mann-Kendall, T-slip and fast Fourier transform periodic analysis, we discuss the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Nino (NINO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and the spatial correlation between PDO and temperature and precipitation in China. The conclusions are as follows: PDO is positively correlated with temperature in the cold spring and the north, and negatively correlated with the north and south in autumn. In warm period, summer and winter are negatively correlated with the north, and autumn is negatively correlated with the south and north. The cold period in September is negatively correlated with the north, in October it is positively correlated with the south and negatively with the north, in November it is positively correlated with the east and negatively with the west. Warm spring is positively related to southern and northern China, negatively related with northern China and negatively correlated with Qinghai-Tibet in autumn. NINO is negatively correlated with temperature, affecting northeast China in summer and Qinghai-Tibet in autumn. NINO is positively correlated with precipitation in spring and east, negatively correlated with west, negatively correlated with north in summer, positively correlated with south in autumn, negatively correlated with north, and positively correlated with south in winter. NAO is positively correlated with temperature in spring and northeast, negatively correlated with north in summer and positively correlated with south. NAO is correlated with precipitation, rising in spring with negative distribution in east and negative distribution in west, falling in summer with negative distribution in south and positive distribution in north, and rising in autumn with positive distribution in west. The winter stabilization period is negatively related to the southwest and northeast. The relationship between DMI and precipitation in China is negative correlation from spring to summer in the north, positive correlation from autumn to winter in the north of South China, negative correlation in the north of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and negative correlation from winter to spring in the east coast.展开更多
亚洲夏季风是十分复杂的天气系统,并且其对我国降水量有着重要影响。目前已建立了许多亚洲夏季风指数定量地衡量亚洲夏季风的强弱,但由于各个指数的侧重点不同,导致其对我国降水量的相关性也有所差异。文章选取目前已建立的11种亚洲夏...亚洲夏季风是十分复杂的天气系统,并且其对我国降水量有着重要影响。目前已建立了许多亚洲夏季风指数定量地衡量亚洲夏季风的强弱,但由于各个指数的侧重点不同,导致其对我国降水量的相关性也有所差异。文章选取目前已建立的11种亚洲夏季风指数,根据定义利用1981~2016年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算各指数序列,同时分析其与我国降水量之间的空间相关性。结果表明:不同季风子系统对我国降水量影响范围不同,南亚夏季风指数主要与华北地区夏季降水存在正相关关系;东亚夏季风指数与我国西南、东部地区存在强相关性。根据定义将亚洲季风指数按所使用的要素类型分为气压场类、风场类、环流场类和综合类,以不同气候要素定义的季风指数其影响范围亦不同。此外,东亚夏季风指数影响区域的年内变率与我国雨带变率一致。The Asian summer wind is a very complex weather system, and it has an important impact on precipitation in China. Many Asian summer wind indices have been established to quantitatively measure the strength of the Asian summer winds, but due to the different focuses of each index, their relevance to the precipitation in China is also different. In this paper, we select 11 Asian summer wind indices that have been established so far, and use the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1981 to 2016 to calculate the sequence of each index according to the definition, and analyze the spatial correlation between them and the precipitation in China at the same time. The results show that different monsoon subsystems have different ranges of influence on precipitation in China, and the South Asian summer wind index mainly has a positive correlation with summer precipitation in North China;the East Asian summer wind index has a strong correlation with the southwestern and eastern regions of China. According to the definition of the Asian monsoon index, the Asian monsoon index is categorized into baroclinic field, wind field, circulation field, and composite field according to the type of elements used, and the specific characteristics and the scope of application are briefly described in the paper. In addition, the intra-annual variability of the East Asian Monsoon Index in the area of influence is consistent with the variability of the rain band in China.展开更多
文摘在气候变化背景下,全球海表温度不断上升,并通过海气相互作用间接影响了全球各个区域的气候状况。本文运用相关、Mann-Kendall、T-滑移和快速傅里叶变换周期分析等方法,讨论了太平洋十年涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)、厄尔尼诺(El Niño, NINO)、北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)及印度洋偶极子(Dipole Mode Index, DMI)的突变时间等及其与中国温度和降水的空间相关性,得出如下结论:PDO与温度:冷期春季与北方正相关,秋季与南北方都为负相关;暖期夏和冬季与北方负相关,秋季与南方和北方负相关;PDO与降水:冷期九月与北方负相关,十月南正北负分布和十一月东正西负分布;暖期春季与华南和东北南部正相关,与华北负相关,秋季青藏区域负相关。NINO与温度负相关,夏季影响东北,秋季影响青藏;NINO与降水:春季与东部正相关,西部负相关,夏季与北方负相关,秋季与南方正相关,北方负相关分布,冬季与华南正相关。NAO与温度,春季与东北正相关,夏季与北方负相关,南方正相关;NAO与降水:春季上升东负西正分布,夏季下降南负北正分布,秋季上升与西部正相关。冬季稳定期与西南正东北负相关分布。DMI与我国降水关系,春到夏季增加与北方负相关,秋到冬季降低与华南北部正相关,与青藏北部负相关,冬到春季降低转换为增加趋势与东部海岸负相关。In the context of climate change, the global sea surface temperature continues to rise, and indirectly affects the climate conditions of various regions of the world through air-sea interaction. In this paper, by means of correlation, Mann-Kendall, T-slip and fast Fourier transform periodic analysis, we discuss the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Nino (NINO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and the spatial correlation between PDO and temperature and precipitation in China. The conclusions are as follows: PDO is positively correlated with temperature in the cold spring and the north, and negatively correlated with the north and south in autumn. In warm period, summer and winter are negatively correlated with the north, and autumn is negatively correlated with the south and north. The cold period in September is negatively correlated with the north, in October it is positively correlated with the south and negatively with the north, in November it is positively correlated with the east and negatively with the west. Warm spring is positively related to southern and northern China, negatively related with northern China and negatively correlated with Qinghai-Tibet in autumn. NINO is negatively correlated with temperature, affecting northeast China in summer and Qinghai-Tibet in autumn. NINO is positively correlated with precipitation in spring and east, negatively correlated with west, negatively correlated with north in summer, positively correlated with south in autumn, negatively correlated with north, and positively correlated with south in winter. NAO is positively correlated with temperature in spring and northeast, negatively correlated with north in summer and positively correlated with south. NAO is correlated with precipitation, rising in spring with negative distribution in east and negative distribution in west, falling in summer with negative distribution in south and positive distribution in north, and rising in autumn with positive distribution in west. The winter stabilization period is negatively related to the southwest and northeast. The relationship between DMI and precipitation in China is negative correlation from spring to summer in the north, positive correlation from autumn to winter in the north of South China, negative correlation in the north of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and negative correlation from winter to spring in the east coast.
文摘亚洲夏季风是十分复杂的天气系统,并且其对我国降水量有着重要影响。目前已建立了许多亚洲夏季风指数定量地衡量亚洲夏季风的强弱,但由于各个指数的侧重点不同,导致其对我国降水量的相关性也有所差异。文章选取目前已建立的11种亚洲夏季风指数,根据定义利用1981~2016年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算各指数序列,同时分析其与我国降水量之间的空间相关性。结果表明:不同季风子系统对我国降水量影响范围不同,南亚夏季风指数主要与华北地区夏季降水存在正相关关系;东亚夏季风指数与我国西南、东部地区存在强相关性。根据定义将亚洲季风指数按所使用的要素类型分为气压场类、风场类、环流场类和综合类,以不同气候要素定义的季风指数其影响范围亦不同。此外,东亚夏季风指数影响区域的年内变率与我国雨带变率一致。The Asian summer wind is a very complex weather system, and it has an important impact on precipitation in China. Many Asian summer wind indices have been established to quantitatively measure the strength of the Asian summer winds, but due to the different focuses of each index, their relevance to the precipitation in China is also different. In this paper, we select 11 Asian summer wind indices that have been established so far, and use the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1981 to 2016 to calculate the sequence of each index according to the definition, and analyze the spatial correlation between them and the precipitation in China at the same time. The results show that different monsoon subsystems have different ranges of influence on precipitation in China, and the South Asian summer wind index mainly has a positive correlation with summer precipitation in North China;the East Asian summer wind index has a strong correlation with the southwestern and eastern regions of China. According to the definition of the Asian monsoon index, the Asian monsoon index is categorized into baroclinic field, wind field, circulation field, and composite field according to the type of elements used, and the specific characteristics and the scope of application are briefly described in the paper. In addition, the intra-annual variability of the East Asian Monsoon Index in the area of influence is consistent with the variability of the rain band in China.
