我国房地产市场泡沫风险的VaR模型计算

房地产泡沫是由于房地产投机过热引起的房地产物业价格脱离市场基础价值、脱离实际需求的支撑而连续快速上涨的现象。由于土地的自然稀缺性、不可替代性以及不可移动性，更使得房地产业很容易成为投机行为的对象：房地产泡沫的危害性大，严重程度高。房地产泡沫一旦产生，很难依靠市场自身的机制恢复至平衡状态。本文，笔者用VaR模型定量分析了我国房地产市场的价格指数风险，希望对控制房地产泡沫风险有所帮助。

BESIII MDC数据处理系统

北京谱仪III(BESIII)是北京正负电子对撞机II(BEPCII)上的一台大型通用磁谱仪,用于τ-粲物理实验研究。主漂移室(MDC)是BESIII上的主要探测器之一,用于测量带电粒子的位置,动量和粒子类型的鉴别。论文主要介绍了BESIII MDC事例重建系统,其中包括T0的计算,径迹重建和径迹拟合,数据离线刻度,dE/dx的重建和刻度等软件的原理、结构以及各软件包的主要性能。

私人发行数字加密货币的价格波动——以比特币为例的主成分动态因子分析

本文引入基于主成分分析方法和Kalman滤波的动态因子模型对比特币价格的动态特性进行研究,发现样本区间比特币的价格波动性是美元的400倍左右,具有较强的投机泡沫特征,私人发行的数字加密货币很难成为广泛使用的计价单位和支付手段。央行主导的数字加密法币是未来货币支付体系的主要发展方向。

非价格数据中的价格信息——对中国价格指数的动态分析

使用基于主成分分析和动态因子模型的框架对我国的消费者物价指数进行动态分析。与传统的研究方式不同,研究试图从非价格指标信息中提取隐含的宏观趋势动态因子,并将其投影在价格指数上,求得最优拟合结果。实证分析结果显示从非价格数据中提取的动态因子可以很好地描述价格指数的变化特征。这也为研究者从实体经济运行状态角度研究宏观经济价格指数以及货币政策的传导机制提供了有效的理论和实践依据。

Study of low momentum track reconstruction for the BESⅢ main drift chamber

In order to overcome the difficulty brought by the circling charged tracks with transverse momentum less than 120 MeV in the BESⅢ Main Drift Chamber （MDC）, a specialized method called TCurlFinder was developed. This tracking method focuses on the charged track reconstruction under 120 MeV and possesses a special mechanism to reject background noise hits. The performance of the package has been carefully checked and tuned by both Monte Carlo data and real data. The study shows that this tracking method could obviously enhance the reconstruction efficiency in the low transverse momentum region, providing physics analysis with more and reliable data.

Observation of a p mass threshold enhancement in ψ′→π+π-J/ψ(J/ψ→γp) decay

The decay channel ψ′→ π 〉＋π^-J/ψ（J/ψ 〉 γp^-p） is studied using a sample of 1.06 × 10^8 ψ′ events collected by the BESIII experiment at BEPCII. A strong enhancement at threshold is observed in the p^-p invariant mass spectrum. The enhancement can be fitted with an S-wave Breit-Wigner resonance function with a resulting peak mass of M = 1861-13^＋6 （stat）-26^＋7 （syst） MeV/c^2 and a narrow width that is Г 〈 38 MeV/c^2 at the 90% confidence level. These results are consistent with published BESII results. These mass and width values do not match with well established mesons.

Studies of dE/dx measurements with the BESⅢ

The Beijing Spectrometer Ⅲ（BESⅢ）is a general-purpose detector used for the study of τ-charm physics at the Beijing Electron-Positron Collider Ⅱ（BEPC Ⅱ）.This paper presents our studies of the dE/dx measurement in the drift chamber of BESⅢ,which is important for the identification of charged particles.Corrections applied to the dE/dx measurement in data reconstruction are discussed.After our current dE/dx calibration,a resolution of about 6% has been obtained for minimum ionization particles,and a 3σ K/πseparation is obtained for momenta up to 760 MeV/c.These results meet the design goals of the BESⅢ drift chamber.

BESⅢ barrel time-of-flight (TOF) calibration using cosmic ray data

The principle of the method for the BESIII TOF calibration using cosmic ray data without magnetic field are reported in this paper. After applying calibration constants, the single-end readout time resolution could reach about 150 ps, and the time resolution for one layer is achieved to be about 110 ps. The paper also described the extraction scheme for the event start time of cosmic events.

Study of BESⅢ MUC offine software with cosmic-ray data

Cosmic-ray data of 90 M events have been collected and used for calibration,alignment as well as detector tuning. A special tracking algorithm for the BESⅢ muon counter is developed and verified with Monte-Carlo simulation and then further confirmed with the cosmic-ray data. The obtained strip resolutions are in good agreement with the design values. A new alignment approach for the BESⅢ muon counter is confirmed with the cosmic-ray data and proposed to be used in future analysis of experimental data.

Decay vertex reconstruction and 3-dimensional lifetime determination at BESⅢ

This paper focuses mainly on the vertex reconstruction of resonance particles with a relatively long lifetime such as Ks^0, A, as well as on lifetime measurements using a 3-dimensional fit. The kinematic constraints between the production and decay vertices and the decay vertex fitting algorithm based on the least squares method are both presented. Reconstruction efficiencies including experimental resolutions are discussed. The results and systematic errors are calculated based on a Monte Carlo simulation.

Determination of the number of J/ψ events with J/ψ → inclusive decays

The number of J/ψ events collected with the BES detector at the BEPC from June 12 to July 28, 2009 is determined to be （225.3 ± 2.8） × 10^ 6 using J/ψ→inclusive events, where the uncertainty is the systematic error and the statistical one is negligible.

Track reconstruction in the BESⅢ muon counter

The reconstruction algorithm for BESⅢ Muon Counter, MucRecAlg, is developed with the objectoriented language C＋＋ in BESⅢ offine software environment. MucRecAlg consists of the following functions：to find track seeds either from extrapolation of tracks in the main drift chamber or from the fired strips in muon counter, to select fired strips associated to the candidate tracks, to fit the candidate tracks with a linear or quadratic function and to calculate other parameters of the tracks for muon identification. Monte Carlo samples are generated to check the performance of the reconstruction package, such as reconstruction effciency, muon remaining rate and pion rejection rate, etc. The preliminary results show that the pion rejection rate is around 3%—4% while the muon remaining rate is better than 90% in 0.4—1.6 GeV/c momentum region, which meets the requirement as shown in the design report.